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Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:13 am
by nelslus
SO- it is time for some of us to get on the ashkor87 Bianca Express yet?
That was a funny second set for me. Haddad Maia would hit some great shots- but, it's hard to win when you're 0/50 on break points.
Smart match from Bianca- mixed it up a lot. Well done.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:15 am
by jazzyg
I believe the Andreescu-Garcia third-round victor will win the tournament, although i wish I could have seen the match tonight. ESPN elected not to show it and it was available not on ESPN Plus, which I get, but on Watch ESPN, which for some inexplicable reason does not work for me even though it is free (I get an error message every time I try to click on a match).
I might be overrating Andreescu, but if she can beat an in-form Garcia, I don't see anyone in her path that would be as difficult. Gauff? No. Keys? No. There are too many possibilities for a semifinal and final opponent to go over, but the Andreescu of 2019 would beat any of them. The question is can she find that level after a good while in the wilderness and the sagging confidence that comes with losing.
'22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:27 am
by meganfernandez
jazzyg wrote:I did not think Kontaveit played as well as everyone is giving her credit for. I also don't think Serena moved as well as everyone is giving her credit for.
Tomljanovic has been in better form than Kontaveit all summer, and Samsonova has won her last two tournaments. I honestly don't see how anyone is getting a good read on Serena's level yet.
Getting a read with our eyes. You can see when people are playing well. I thought this match was extremely high quality. Funny how we can all watch the same thing and see different things.
I didn’t see Andreescu tonight, but she hasn’t strung together a few good matches in a long time. I don’t think she will find the 2019 form. I thought Naomi had her best stuff for awhile vs Collins, but she’s just not sharp enough. Probably same for Bianca. I’d take any number of players over her right now - someone who has already found that form for awhile. Collins was deadly last night, for instance, although she hasn’t had that form lately. But she hasn’t played much lately either.
Everyone is underestimating Swiatek. She’s a dominant #1 and won IW and Miami. Balls, schmalls. She can get used to them.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:00 am
by Deuce
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 8:31 pm
No. Its is standard now in all Slams. play to 10.
Although I am not sure if it is done at RG. I think yes.
Now that they've all gone to the tiebreak in the final set, I'd like to see the winner have to win by 3 or 4 points instead of just the standard 2 points.
Having a close, hard fought match decided by a difference of a mere 2 points is wrong. Might as well have a target hitting contest to determine the winner.
Having to win the final set tiebreak by 3 or 4 points would mean the winner is more deserving.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:28 am
by JTContinental
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 5:27 am
jazzyg wrote:I did not think Kontaveit played as well as everyone is giving her credit for. I also don't think Serena moved as well as everyone is giving her credit for.
Tomljanovic has been in better form than Kontaveit all summer, and Samsonova has won her last two tournaments. I honestly don't see how anyone is getting a good read on Serena's level yet.
Getting a read with our eyes. You can see when people are playing well. I thought this match was extremely high quality. Funny how we can all watch the same thing and see different things.
I didn’t see Andreescu tonight, but she hasn’t strung together a few good matches in a long time. I don’t think she will find the 2019 form. I thought Naomi had her best stuff for awhile vs Collins, but she’s just not sharp enough. Probably same for Bianca. I’d take any number of players over her right now - someone who has already found that form for awhile. Collins was deadly last night, for instance, although she hasn’t had that form lately. But she hasn’t played much lately either.
Everyone is underestimating Swiatek. She’s a dominant #1 and won IW and Miami. Balls, schmalls. She can get used to them.
It was high octane--Serena hit 38 winners/40 UFEs and Kontaveit 32 winners/27 UFEs. With the force in which that ball was being hit, I also thought both players were at a high level. It felt like more than a R64 match to me.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:36 pm
by mick1303
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:57 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 1:55 am
52 weeks ago weighted the least, last week's weighted the most..easy to implement with computers but hard to understand so transparency gets lost..
So, the defending champion of any Slam basically has no points to defend from that victory.
I wonder how the players would react to that.
It is a nice system as a mental exercise. But I think it's application shall be for seeding purposes only. If you look at the rolling or cumulative ranking (especially career cumulative) - there is no reason for downgrading older results. They were achieved under the same conditions on average. So the weight shall be the same.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:17 pm
by ponchi101
jazzyg wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 4:15 am
I did not think Kontaveit played as well as everyone is giving her credit for. I also don't think Serena moved as well as everyone is giving her credit for.
Tomljanovic has been in better form than Kontaveit all summer, and Samsonova has won her last two tournaments.
I honestly don't see how anyone is getting a good read on Serena's level yet.
But we have some data.
A convincing win over a good player, right in the fashion that it should have been: 3&3.
Then beating the #2 seed, in another reasonable fashion. 6-2 in the third.
The problem for all the victims that she will face will be their second serve. Serena hit a considerable number of winners last night of Anett's powder puff serve, and she will do it again and again against Ajla and Samsonova. Because the new crop has no second serve to speak of.
So, with Coco's DF problems (assuming they meet) Serena will crush her serve. Maybe Maddie, who is a very good server, could get by her.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:23 pm
by jazzyg
Winners and unforced errors are determined by the speed of the opponent, not necessarily by the quality of play. At times last night Serena moved well. At other times she labored.
I need more evidence than beating a .500 player that she is a threat. She might provide that evidence in the next two matches, but Samsonova, for one, would be a huge favorite over Kontaveit if they played right now.
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:24 pm
by ponchi101
But you agree that Ajla has no chance?
Re: '22 USO Day 3 OoP & Discussion
Posted: Thu Sep 01, 2022 6:54 pm
by JTContinental
jazzyg wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:23 pm
Winners and unforced errors are determined by the speed of the opponent, not necessarily by the quality of play. At times last night Serena moved well. At other times she labored.
I need more evidence than beating a .500 player that she is a threat. She might provide that evidence in the next two matches, but Samsonova, for one, would be a huge favorite over Kontaveit if they played right now.
??--winners and UFEs are determined by how and where you hit the ball--opponent's speed factors into it, I suppose, but it is not the driving determination behind it. I guarantee you most of the winners I hit on court have more to do with arm strength and placement than my opponent's speed. Even if this were true, Kontaveit moved just fine and didn't look slow, so just maybe some of those winners were made based on Serena's ability to play tennis.
Let's just say my belief in Serena's ability to go deep in this tournament increased considerably from my original 0%. I don't think she'll win or anything, but her level of play and especially her movement has improved greatly since Wimbledon.