An early look at the US Open

[ashkor87]

Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

Nice to have so much disagreement! I still stand by my ranking, of course, though I agree Raducanu is shaky....agree, though, that Alcaraz winning will not be a surprise..none of those 5 winning will surprise me, actually. But Alcaraz, like all young players, is getting better with every outing . ,(like Secretariat!,)..discount W because Alcaraz had no experience on grass and even his coach was not much good on it!

[Cuckoo4Coco]

Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

Nice to have so much disagreement! I still stand by my ranking, of course, though I agree Raducanu is shaky....agree, though, that Alcaraz winning will not be a surprise..none of those 5 winning will surprise me, actually. But Alcaraz, like all young players, is getting better with every outing . ,(like Secretariat!,)

I agree with your Alcaraz pick, but wonder what you think on Jannick Sinner who is another young player who seems in that mold where every match he goes out to play he is getting better and better. Do you see him going far in the US Open?

[ashkor87]

Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

Nice to have so much disagreement! I still stand by my ranking, of course, though I agree Raducanu is shaky....agree, though, that Alcaraz winning will not be a surprise..none of those 5 winning will surprise me, actually. But Alcaraz, like all young players, is getting better with every outing . ,(like Secretariat!,)

I agree with your Alcaraz pick, but wonder what you think on Jannick Sinner who is another young player who seems in that mold where every match he goes out to play he is getting better and better. Do you see him going far in the US Open?

Yes, Sinner is #2 on my list, above Alcaraz

[ashkor87]

I have stopped buying Sabalenka stock...she may not have got her rhythm back after covid .some people never do...of the power hitters, I would want to keep an eye on Alexandrova and Samsonova...not Saba..also let us not forget Kudermetova..she was on the upswing before Wimbledon..another young player improving every day, like Rybakina

[ponchi101]

Coming back to the women:
It is basically who CANNOT win it. That list is shorter. Of the top 20:
Mugu. She is nowhere near any form to win this, and this is her worst slam.
Pliskova. The train left.
Krejcikova. As you say, I think she has some C19 lingering effects. If she cannot win on clay, she can't win here.
Vika. A bit old by now.
Below the top 20, possible winners (down to 40):
Anisimova, Rybakina, Keys (she has the game, still), Alexandrova, Shaui Zhang and, although I discounted her, I know I am alone here, Naomi. At least 20 players that can. And remember: for the last couple of years, we have had at least two new slam winners per year. I am still sticking to OTHER.
---0---
Sinner: I don't know what he will remember: those first two sets of Wimbledon, or the last three. That may play in his mind for a while.

[ti-amie]

I think Sinner needs a very good draw to go deep. I'm not convinced about him yet.

Carlitos can if he gets a decent draw too. For both him and Sinner the top or bottom half of the draw will be crucial for their success. I don't know if anyone else saw it but after his first match at Wimby he took his sleeve off and that elbow is layered in kinesio tape. He never took it off again.

As for the women it depends on who is left standing in Week 2.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

I think Sinner needs a very good draw to go deep. I'm not convinced about him yet.

Carlitos can if he gets a decent draw too. For both him and Sinner the top or bottom half of the draw will be crucial for their success. I don't know if anyone else saw it but after his first match at Wimby he took his sleeve off and that elbow is layered in kinesio tape. He never took it off again.

As for the women it depends on who is left standing in Week 2.

You are correct. It all depends on how the draw falls. With Novak being out of the tournament and Rafa at least not being 100% and not really knowing what to expect from the injury of Zverev injury. That leaves the men's draw a little more wide open than usual with Medvedev at the top and players like Tsitsipas sitting there ready to pounce. Then there are the guys like Rublev, Sinner, Alcaraz, Ruud, FAA, and even Taylor Fritz maybe sitting there and hoping for the draw to work out for them.

As for the ladies you never know what is going to happen. Iga has to be the favorite going in and Naomi really has to be in the conversation. The rest is up to how many upsets happen and you know they will happen.

[ponchi101]

Remember that the title of this TOPIC is "AN EARLY LOOK" We still have not played a single summer tour match (the big guys).
Rafa will be fine. If he was able to play RG with that foot injury, that abs injury will heal by then.
We have to see how well Medvedev will look.
Rublev likes hard courts. So do Hurkacz, Sinner, Norrie, Barrettini and Fritz.
I really, really am starting to think that Rafa's injury will be of profit, as he will play, at most, one tournament prior to the Open. He will be fresh.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

Rafa and RG. I think Rafa could play RG with a broken arm and just go out and rub some of that clay dirt on it and be magically healed and win the tournament.

Other tournaments he has a little more trouble when he is not 100% , but he still does seem to reach down to somewhere and pull some magic out. I am not going to say he will be 100% , but he will be Rafa% and that is good enough to go deep into the tournament at the US Open.

Medvedev is the key here. If he is on his game he will win the tournament. If he is not then it is opened for the likes of a Sinner or an Alcaraz or someone else. I really think it would be great if Taylor Fritz does really well at the US Open.

[ponchi101]

Rafa and RG. I think Rafa could play RG with a broken arm and just go out and rub some of that clay dirt on it and be magically healed and win the tournament.

...

His three losses have been due to injury:
2009: Sodelrling. After the match, he took a long time off to deal with his injury.
2015: Injured in the QF (?) against Novak.
2916: WO to Novak. Injured.
2021: Foot injury Vs Novak.

So yes, he needs to be injured to lose there.

[Cuckoo4Coco]

Rafa and RG. I think Rafa could play RG with a broken arm and just go out and rub some of that clay dirt on it and be magically healed and win the tournament.

...

His three losses have been due to injury:
2009: Sodelrling. After the match, he took a long time off to deal with his injury.
2015: Injured in the QF (?) against Novak.
2916: WO to Novak. Injured.
2021: Foot injury Vs Novak.

So yes, he needs to be injured to lose there.

Definitely the best player I have ever seen play on the clay.

[jazzyg]

Sinner really struggled on hard courts early this year. Only his toughness and will to win carried him through multiple matches when he was down match point, but he did not look good. He's not ready, and his movement is overrated.

Alcaraz is my pick at the moment, but unlike the original post, I very much think play in the lead-up tournaments is relevant. He might not be in my top five by the start of the tournament.

Medvedev, I think, will be scarred for a while by his loss to Nadal in the Aussie Open final. He choked that match away and let the crowd get to him. Rafa was ready to capitulate when he fell down 0-40 on his serve in the third set. realizing it was not his day, and Medvedev threw him a lifeline. Let's see how Medvedev plays in Canada and Cincinnati.

If Nadal is healthy, he is my co-favorite along with Alcaraz, and it does not matter whether he does anything at one of the earlier events. He's the exception.

As for the women, maybe I missed it, but I don't think anyone mentioned Halep at all in this thread. Her worst results have come at the U.S. Open, and she probably is the most vulnerable on hard courts in general, but she's won the third most matches of any WTA player this year and by my count has won 12 tournaments on hard courts in her career. She's not the favorite, but she has to be in the top five.

I'm skeptical about Swiatek holding her form. I just don't think she's as good off of clay as she looked during her torrid streak earlier in the year. How she plays in the lead-ups will determine for me whether or not she's the favorite.

Rybakina figures to struggle after winning her first slam, as almost all players do.

Gauff is a contender because of her desire and speed. but she has too many flaws in her game (forehand technique, second serve at times). Asked about her chances at Wimbledon before her first match, Wozniacki immediately said she was better on slow surfaces than fast surfaces, which is totally true but never spoken by anyone else on ESPN or Tennis Channel.

Andreescu has a shot but is not playing with the confidence she showed in 2019, when it looked like she did not believe she could lose. The injuries and losses since then have affected her.

Again, the next month could change my opinion, but I'd let anyone pick four favorites, and then I'd still take the field against whomever they picked. I can come up with a litany of reasons why everyone in the top 20 will not win, but of course, someone will win.

[ashkor87]

Ok, here goes:
Swiatek, Osaka, Leylah, Andreescu
You would take the field?
I didn't take Halep because she is not that good on hard courts and, as we saw at W, she is getting slower and taking longer to recover..she has never even been to the finals of the USO, has she? So she is not in my top 6..
I named 6 precisely because it is a bit early..at least one or two of my six will not even be playing at the USO for one reason or another..
So I stick with 6..anyone want to take the field over the 6?

[ashkor87]

History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

[ashkor87]

I don't agree that Coco is better on slow courts than on fast- her defense is so good, she is so quick, that makes her formidable on fast courts..these attributes are more important on fast courts than slow...not much impressed with Woz' 'expert' comments anyway..remember, she said Osaka would lose in the second round or something at Miami, really motivated Osaka!

Gauff did well at the French because of her draw...