Talk About Tennis 2.0

It's very difficult to pinpoint who will win, particularly in WTA. I have an easier question to consider: will it be a first time winner or someone who has won a Slam before?

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:29 am It's very difficult to pinpoint who will win, particularly in WTA. I have an easier question to consider: will it be a first time winner or someone who has won a Slam before?

My first instinct is to go with a First Timer, continuing the trend of 4 of the last 5 Opens. But after some analysis, I'm going with Repeater. While 14 of the top 20 haven't won a Slam and a lot of the Slam winners haven't done much lately, I think my roster of Repeaters is stronger than the First Timers. I also value experience.

Top Repeat Contenders are:
Swiatek
Rybakina
Halep
Ostapenko (yep... she's winning matches this year and always believes. Dangerous.)
Osaka (yeah, I think she can turn it on in NY if she finds a groove and the draw breaks right; she's apparently healthy)
*Barty - is there a wild card left? She might take a look at things and go "I could rock up and win"
(I can't put Kvitova on the list given her history in NY... also leaving off Muguruza, Raducanu, Andreescu, Azarenka, Stephens, Kerber, Vondrousova, Krejcikova, Serena)


Top First-Timers are:
Garcia
Gauff
Jabeur
Pegula
Pliskova
Fernandez
Haddad Maia
Bencic
Sabalenka
Kasatkina
Keys
Zheng - the top surprise contender
(I'm leaving off Badosa, Sakkari, Kontaveit, Anisimova (injury), Mertens, Rogers)

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:23 am Most of Federer's Wimbledon titles were preceded by a Halle title.

I'd probably eliminate the Big 3 for the sake of analysis. They have super powers. I'm sure they all did very well in both the clay Masters and the French in the same year (not just winning, but semis and finals). Thiem, too.

Starting with Flavia's 2015 USO, there have been 15 first time winners out of the last 27 Slams played. So I am going for first time winner, again.
I don't think today's final will change my way of seeing this so, for me:
Halep 10%
Kvitova 10%
Swiatek 8%
Kontaveit 5%
Osaka 5%
Garcia 5%
BHM 5%
Raducanu 2%
Field 50%

On the men's:
Rafa: 30%
Medvedev: 25%
Tsitsipas: 20%
PCB: 10%
Field: 15%

I think Rafa has the best chance of navigating a draw, especially with the day off. And being the only Big 3 guy left there, he will get to play enough under a roof, so the weather will have no effect on his schedule.

My top 5 contenders on each side for the USO

Women
Pliskova
Swiatek
Garcia
Halep
Rogers

Men
Medvedev
Nadal
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Paul

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:32 pm Starting with Flavia's 2015 USO, there have been 15 first time winners out of the last 27 Slams played. So I am going for first time winner, again.
I don't think today's final will change my way of seeing this so, for me:
Halep 10%
Kvitova 10%
Swiatek 8%
Kontaveit 5%
Osaka 5%
Garcia 5%
BHM 5%
Raducanu 2%
Field 50%

On the men's:
Rafa: 30%
Medvedev: 25%
Tsitsipas: 20%
PCB: 10%
Field: 15%

I think Rafa has the best chance of navigating a draw, especially with the day off. And being the only Big 3 guy left there, he will get to play enough under a roof, so the weather will have no effect on his schedule.

Field 50% ?! Who is left?! Only Rybakina and Leylah...!! And no Kyrgios? PcB higher than Sinner?

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:26 pm My top 5 contenders on each side for the USO

Women
Pliskova
Swiatek
Garcia
Halep
Rogers

Men
Medvedev
Nadal
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Paul

Not Coco? You would rate Rogers that high? And Paul above Kyrgios?

Why only them? There are 50+ other players still unmentioned from the top 100.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:34 pm

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:26 pm My top 5 contenders on each side for the USO

Women
Pliskova
Swiatek
Garcia
Halep
Rogers

Men
Medvedev
Nadal
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Paul

Not Coco? You would rate Rogers that high? And Paul above Kyrgios?

The reason Rogers and Paul are in there is because they are my favorite players, and I have to have an American player to represent each side. With Coco, I think she is really hit or miss. She can look great for a few matches and then look awful the next. I am afraid of what Nick Kyrgios will show up. If it is the 10% Nick, then he is not going to stick around very long.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:33 pm ...

Field 50% ?! Who is left?! Only Rybakina and Leylah...!! And no Kyrgios? PcB higher than Sinner?

WTA left: Rybakina, Leylah, Sabalenka, Sakkari, Badosa, Kasatkina, Keys, on and on. I keep saying, it will be a surprise winner.
Sinner just lost a totally winnable match against FAA. Both of them are missing from what I say. Hurkacz, a fine hard court player, lost to PCB. PCB, I am only putting him in because he won Montreal.
Kyrgios. The same story as always. He threw away his match this week, so why should we assume that "oh, he will be motivated at the USO". I admit it: I have no idea what motivates the guy. So maybe is motivation will be there, maybe it won't. But he remains unpredictable as always.

Full list of possible WTA winners (95% probability) - the entire top 20 + Pliskova, Kvitova, Garcia, Anisimova, Rybakina, Azarenka, Alexandrova, Riske, Rogers, Mertens, Bouzkova, Osaka, Vondrousova, Tomljanovic, Andreescu, Kerber, Stephens, Giorgi.

So we're at 38 candidates.

For men I'd be more restrictive and stop at - Medvedev, Nadal, Alcaraz, Tsitsipas, FAA, Fritz, Nortie and Sinner (8).

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:04 pm Full list of possible WTA winners (95% probability) - the entire top 20 + Pliskova, Kvitova, Garcia, Anisimova, Rybakina, Azarenka, Alexandrova, Riske, Rogers, Mertens, Bouzkova, Osaka, Vondrousova, Tomljanovic, Andreescu, Kerber, Stephens, Giorgi.

So we're at 38 candidates.

Changing players from your list would be splitting hairs. We basically agree.
I mean, I will even give Garbiñe a shot.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:32 pm Starting with Flavia's 2015 USO, there have been 15 first time winners out of the last 27 Slams played. So I am going for first time winner, again.
I don't think today's final will change my way of seeing this so, for me:
Halep 10%
Kvitova 10%
Swiatek 8%
Kontaveit 5%
Osaka 5%
Garcia 5%
BHM 5%
Raducanu 2%
Field 50%

On the men's:
Rafa: 30%
Medvedev: 25%
Tsitsipas: 20%
PCB: 10%
Field: 15%

I think Rafa has the best chance of navigating a draw, especially with the day off. And being the only Big 3 guy left there, he will get to play enough under a roof, so the weather will have no effect on his schedule.

However, Wimbledon was full of repeat winners in that time frame until Rybakina. 2013 was the last time Wimbledon had a first-time winner in Bartoli.

Out of those 15, 11 came from French and USO.

Going a bit into semantics, but Wimbledon has had a FIRST TIME WIMBLEDON winner for the last five editions. Sure, they had slams in other events, but it is still very mixed.
USO: starting with Flavia, 5 out of the last 6, and that was because Naomi won it twice. Uhm, more data for a new 1st time winner (either EVER or just USO, which would include Petra or Simona).