by ti-amieTournament: US Open Location: New York, NY, U.S.A. Dates: August 28 - September 10 2023 Surface: Hard Tier: Grand Slam Prize Money: $0 Total Financial Commitment: $0
Entries
Seed* Name Current Ranking Entry Ranking
1 Carlos Alcaraz 1 1
2 Novak Djokovic 2 2
3 Daniil Medvedev 3 3
4 Casper Ruud 4 4
5 Stefanos Tsitsipas 5 5
6 Holger Rune 6 6
7 Andrey Rublev 7 7
8 Jannik Sinner 8 8
9 Taylor Fritz 9 9
10 Frances Tiafoe 10 10
11 Karen Khachanov 11 11
12 Felix Auger-Aliassime 12 12
13 Cameron Norrie 13 13
14 Tommy Paul 14 14
15 Borna Coric 15 15
16 Lorenzo Musetti 16 16
17 Hubert Hurkacz 17 17
18 Alex de Minaur 18 18
19 Alexander Zverev 19 19
20 Francisco Cerundolo 20 20
21 Grigor Dimitrov 21 21
22 Pablo Carreno Busta 22 22
23 Denis Shapovalov 23 23
24 Jan-Lennard Struff 24 24
25 Roberto Bautista Agut 25 25
26 Nicolas Jarry 26 26
27 Alexander Bublik 27 27
28 Sebastian Korda 28 28
29 Daniel Evans 29 29
30 Yoshihito Nishioka 30 30
31 Christopher Eubanks 31 31
32 Matteo Berrettini 32 32
Jiri Lehecka 33 33
Tomas Martin Etcheverry 34 34
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 35 35
Tallon Griekspoor 36 36
Nick Kyrgios 37 37
Adrian Mannarino 38 38
Ben Shelton 39 39
Ugo Humbert 40 40
Andy Murray 41 41
Lorenzo Sonego 42 42
Roman Safiullin 43 43
Miomir Kecmanovic 44 44
Botic van de Zandschulp 45 45
Yannick Hanfmann 46 46
J.J. Wolf 47 47
Emil Ruusuvuori 48 48
Richard Gasquet 49 49
Gregoire Barrere 50 50
Aslan Karatsev 52 52
Bernabe Zapata Miralles 53 53
Marton Fucsovics 54 54
Laslo Djere 55 55
Daniel Elahi Galan 56 56
Brandon Nakashima 57 57
Sebastian Ofner 58 58
Mackenzie McDonald 59 59
Roberto Carballes Baena 60 60
Dusan Lajovic 61 61
Marcos Giron 62 62
Sebastian Baez 63 63
Daniel Altmaier 64 64
Quentin Halys 65 65
Juan Pablo Varillas 66 66
Christopher O'Connell 67 67
Arthur Fils 68 68
Jordan Thompson 69 69
Zhizhen Zhang 70 70
Max Purcell 71 71
Nuno Borges 72 72
Corentin Moutet 73 73
Stan Wawrinka 74 74
Matteo Arnaldi 75 75
Alexandre Muller 76 76
Luca Van Assche 77 77
Yibing Wu 78 78
Albert Ramos-Vinolas 79 79
Jack Draper 80 80
Alex Molcan 81 81
Arthur Rinderknech 82 82
Aleksandar Vukic 83 83
Marc-Andrea Huesler 84 84
Jason Kubler 85 85
Constant Lestienne 86 86
Dominik Koepfer 87 87
Thanasi Kokkinakis 88 88
Pavel Kotov 89 89
Pedro Cachin 90 90
Alexei Popyrin 91 91
Ilya Ivashka 92 92
Fabian Marozsan 93 93
Dominic Thiem 94 94
Marco Cecchinato 95 95
Alexander Shevchenko 96 96
Marin Cilic 102 21 (PR)
Hugo Dellien 167 73 (PR)
Lloyd Harris 202 47 (PR)
Guido Pella 229 75 (PR)
Gael Monfils 315 35 (PR)
(WC) Ethan Quinn 434
Kei Nishikori 438 48 (PR)
Jiri Vesely 455 94 (PR)
Milos Raonic 545 33 (PR)
Reilly Opelka 644 33 (PR)
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Alternates
Name Current Ranking Entry Ranking
1 Facundo Diaz Acosta 97 97
2 Diego Schwartzman 98 98
3 Radu Albot 99 99
4 Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100 100
5 Soonwoo Kwon 101 101
6 Attila Balazs - 101 (PR)
7 Yosuke Watanuki 104 104
8 Maxime Cressy 105 105
9 Dominic Stricker 106 106
10 Benjamin Bonzi 107 107
11 Tomas Machac 108 108
12 Zsombor Piros 109 109
13 Jaume Munar 110 110
14 David Goffin 111 111
15 Taro Daniel 112 112
16 Federico Coria 113 113
17 Borna Gojo 114 114
18 Michael Mmoh 115 115
19 Rinky Hijikata 116 116
20 Giulio Zeppieri 117 117
Withdrawals
Name Current Ranking Entry Ranking
Mikael Ymer 51 51
by ti-amie
by ti-amie José Morgado
@josemorgado
·
4h
·
US Open 2023, Men's Singles seeds:
(First out: Djere)
Struff actually OUT.
32. Djere
Next: Lehecka
by ti-amieMain Draw Singles
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming ESP C. Alcaraz [1] vs GER D. Koepfer
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
RSA L. Harris vs ARG G. Pella
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
NED B. van de Zandschulp vs AUS J. Thompson
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
COL D. Galan vs GBR D. Evans [26]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming NED T. Griekspoor [24] vs FRA A. Fils
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
AUS J. Kubler vs ITA M. Arnaldi
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
AUS T. Kokkinakis vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
RUS A. Shevchenko vs GBR C. Norrie [16]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming GER A. Zverev [12] vs AUS A. Vukic
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
GER D. Altmaier vs FRA C. Lestienne
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
GBR A. Murray vs FRA C. Moutet
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
SVK A. Molcan vs BUL G. Dimitrov [19]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming ARG T. Etcheverry [30] vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
SUI S. Wawrinka vs JPN Y. Nishioka
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
Qualifier
ITA L. Sonego
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
GER Y. Hanfmann vs ITA J. Sinner [6]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming RUS D. Medvedev [3] vs HUN A. Balazs
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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AUS M. Purcell vs AUS C. O'Connell
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
JPN K. Nishikori vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
ARG S. Baez vs CRO B. Coric [27]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming CHI N. Jarry [23] vs FRA L. Van Assche
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
ESP A. Ramos-Vinolas vs USA A. Michelsen
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
CHN Y. Wu vs SRB D. Lajovic
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
Qualifier vs AUS A. de Minaur [13]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming RUS K. Khachanov [11] vs USA M. Mmoh
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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ARG F. Diaz Acosta vs USA J. Isner
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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MDA R. Albot vs GBR J. Draper
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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SUI M. Huesler vs POL H. Hurkacz [17]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming FRA U. Humbert [29] vs ITA M. Berrettini
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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ARG D. Schwartzman vs FRA A. Rinderknech
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
Qualifier vs FRA G. Monfils
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
FIN E. Ruusuvuori vs RUS A. Rublev [8]
Bottom Half
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming NOR C. Ruud [5] vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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USA J. Wolf vs CHN Z. Zhang
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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AUS R. Hijikata vs RUS P. Kotov
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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HUN M. Fucsovics vs USA S. Korda [31]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming FRA A. Mannarino [22] vs JPN Y. Watanuki
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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FRA R. Gasquet vs HUN F. Marozsan
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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AUT S. Ofner vs POR N. Borges
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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USA L. Tien vs USA F. Tiafoe [10]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming USA T. Paul [14] vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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RUS R. Safiullin vs ITA M. Cecchinato
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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BLR I. Ivashka vs ARG J. Cerundolo
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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USA M. Giron vs ESP A. Davidovich Fokina [21]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming KAZ A. Bublik [25] vs AUT D. Thiem
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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ARG P. Cachin vs USA B. Shelton
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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RUS A. Karatsev vs CZE J. Lehecka
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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ESP R. Carballes Baena vs DEN H. Rune [4]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming GRE S. Tsitsipas [7] vs CAN M. Raonic
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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Qualifier vs AUS A. Popyrin
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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FRA Q. Halys vs FRA B. Bonzi
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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KOR S. Kwon vs USA C. Eubanks [28]
MEN'S SINGLESR1
Upcoming ITA L. Musetti [18] vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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Qualifier vs FRA G. Barrere
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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SRB M. Kecmanovic vs PER J. Varillas
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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USA S. Johnson vs USA T. Fritz [9]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming CAN F. Auger-Aliassime [15] vs USA M. McDonald
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
BOL H. Dellien vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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CZE J. Vesely vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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Qualifier vs ARG F. Cerundolo [20]
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming SRB L. Djere [32] vs USA B. Nakashima
MEN'S SINGLES R1
Upcoming
Qualifier vs Qualifier
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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ESP B. Zapata Miralles vs USA E. Quinn
MEN'S SINGLES R1
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FRA A. Muller vs SRB N. Djokovic [2]
by ashkor87 Takes a lot of computation...ELO is optimized for head to head..thanks for the work! Certainly supports your picks 1-2-3
by ashkor87 based on the draws and what I have been able to judge about the court speed, from youtube videos, I would predict the semis will be
Djokovic vesus Rune, Alcaraz vesus Medvedev.. with Djokovic and Alcaraz to contest the finals.. this time, Alcaraz will win, the court is a bit slow, will suit him.
by meganfernandez
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 1:36 am
Takes a lot of computation...ELO is optimized for head to head..thanks for the work! Certainly supports your picks 1-2-3
Not my work. It's Jeff Sackman of Tennis Abstract, the foremost tennis statistician online.
by ti-amie To show you how social media can start tempests in teapots (as if we here don't know that)
First this
by ashkor87
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2023 1:36 am
Takes a lot of computation...ELO is optimized for head to head..thanks for the work! Certainly supports your picks 1-2-3
But Elo will always underestimate the probability of a top player winning in this kind of computation..because it will never give him a 100% chance, by definiton, in any match-up, though we know that is closer to reality than a 90% chance. I assume the probability was computed by projecting every match and the probability of it happening in the first place.
by skatingfan John Isner's pretournament press conference.
by dave g Does anyone know which half of the draw is playing on Monday. I know that LiveScores says that it is the bottom half, but last year it was the top half.
by JTContinental The OOP is up on the US Open site, and it looks like bottom half for men, top half for women
by skatingfan First Grand Slam
Droguet, Titouan – France (22)
Meligeni Alves, Felipe – Brazil (25) – nephew of French Open semifinalist Fenando Meligeni
Mensik, Jakub – Czech Republic (17)
Michelsen, Alex – United States of America (19)
Moreno de Alboran, Nicolas – United States of America (26)
Quinn, Ethan – United States of America (19)
Virtanen, Otto – Finland (22)
First US Open
Arnaldi, Matteo – Italy (22)
Cerundolo, Juan Manuel – Argentina (21)
Diaz Acosta, Facundo – Argentina (22)
Fils, Arthur – France (19)
Gojo, Borna - Croatia (25)
Hsu, Yu-hsiou – Chinese Taipei (24)
Lestienne, Constant – France (31)
Marozsan, Fabian – Hungary (23)
Muller, Alexandre – France (26)
Ofner, Sebastian – Austria (27)
Safiullin, Roman – Russia (26)
Skatov, Timofey – Kazakhstan (22)
Shevchenko, Alexander – Russia (22)
Shimabukuro, Sho – Japan (26)
Stricker, Dominic – Switzerland (21)
Van Assche, Luca – France (19)
Varillas, Juan Pablo – Peru (27)
Vukic, Aleksandar – Australia (27)
Watanuki, Yosuke – Japan (25)
by ti-amieMen's Doubles Draw
NED W. Koolhof [1]/GBR N. Skupski [1] vs USA C. Eubanks/USA B. Shelton
COL J. Cabal/COL R. Farah vs USA N. Godsick/USA E. Quinn
URU A. Behar/CZE A. Pavlasek vs AUT P. Oswald/NED B. van de Zandschulp
ARG G. Duran/ARG T. Etcheverry vs USA N. Lammons [15]/USA J. Withrow [15]
GER K. Krawietz [10]/GER T. Puetz [10] vs FRA G. Barrere/FRA Q. Halys
USA W. Blumberg/USA S. Johnson vs GBR J. Cash/GBR H. Patten
KAZ A. Golubev RUS/R. Safiullin USA vs A. Kovacevic/USA N. Moreno De Alboran
AUS C. O'Connell/AUS A. Vukic vs IND R. Bopanna [6]/AUS M. Ebden [6]
ESA M. Arevalo [4]/NED J. Rojer [4] vs ARG G. Andreozzi/ARG F. Cerundolo
ARG S. Baez/VEN L. Martinez vs ITA M. Arnaldi/NED B. Stevens
USA R. Galloway/FRA A. Olivetti vs USA J. Isner/USA J. Sock
BRA M. Melo/AUS J. Peers vs GBR L. Glasspool [13]/FIN H. Heliovaara [13]
GBR J. Murray [12]/NZL M. Venus [12] vs ECU G. Escobar/KAZ A. Nedovyesov
FRA P. Herbert/FRA N. Mahut vs HUN M. Fucsovics/AUS A. Popyrin
AUS M. Purcell/AUS J. Thompson vs RSA L. Harris/SRB M. Kecmanovic
COL D. Galan/CHN Z. Zhang vs ESP M. Granollers [8]/ARG H. Zeballos [8]
ARG M. Gonzalez [5]/ARG A. Molteni [5] vs ARG P. Cachin/PER J. Varillas
FRA A. Mannarino/FRA A. Rinderknech vs USA E. Spizzirri/USA T. Zink
NED T. Griekspoor/AUS T. Kokkinakis vs USA A. Frusina/USA A. Ganesan
POR F. Cabral/BRA R. Matos vs BEL S. Gille [11]/BEL J. Vliegen [11]
NED R. Haase [16]/CRO N. Mektic [16] vs SRB N. Cacic/ROU V. Cornea
USA M. McDonald/GER A. Mies vs FRA A. Fils/FRA L. Van Assche
JPN B. McLachlan/JPN Y. Nishioka vs AUT A. Erler/AUT L. Miedler
ITA S. Bolelli/ITA A. Vavassori vs USA R. Ram [3] GBR J. Salisbury [3]
MEX S. Gonzalez [7]/FRA E. Roger-Vasselin [7] vs USA M. Cressy/FRA F. Martin
COL N. Barrientos/SWE A. Goransson vs MON R. Arneodo/AUT S. Weissborn
RUS A. Karatsev/IND S. Myneni vs SRB L. Djere/SUI M. Huesler
IND Y. Bhambri/BRA M. Demoliner vs MON H. Nys [9]/POL J. Zielinski [9]
NED M. Middelkoop [14]/CRO M. Pavic [14] vs FRA S. Doumbia/FRA F. Reboul
FRA A. Muller/AUT S. Ofner vs USA V. Kirkov/USA D. Kudla
GRE P. Tsitsipas/GRE S. Tsitsipas vs MEX M. Reyes-Varela/ESP D. Vega Hernandez
ESP R. Carballes Baena/ESP B. Zapata Miralles vs CRO I. Dodig [2]/USA A. Krajicek [2]
by ti-amie
by jazzyg Of the 16 players left in Djokovic's half of the draw, none other than Djokovic have made a slam final, three have made one semi (Tiafoe, Paul, Karatsev) and one has made a quarterfinal (Fritz). Of the eight players left in Djoker's quarter, Fritz had the one quarterfinal IWimbledon), Vesely made two fourth rounds (Wimbledon) and the other five never made it past a third round.
Not that Djokovic was ever going to have real trouble reaching the final, but his path is ridiculously easy now.
by ashkor87 Have high hopes of Michelsen...very impressed with his all-round game and willingness to come forward and volley...
by ti-amie
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:30 am
Have high hopes of Michelsen...very impressed with his all-round game and willingness to come forward and volley...
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:30 am
Have high hopes of Michelsen...very impressed with his all-round game and willingness to come forward and volley...
I hope to finally watch him play today.
Let us know what you think...
by ti-amie He played a great first set but Jarry, who is seeded, changed things up (Massu among others were in his box) and Michelson wasn't able to keep up.
If he turns pro he needs to play Challengers for a while mixing in a 250 every now and then. He can hit the ball - he is an American player - but his thought process doesn't go much beyond that.
I hope he learned what even a "low ranked" pro can do to an inexperienced player and has coaches around him who can help him process what happened to him today.
by skatingfan
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 12:07 am
He played a great first set but Jarry, who is seeded, changed things up (Massu among others were in his box) and Michelson wasn't able to keep up.
If he turns pro he needs to play Challengers for a while mixing in a 250 every now and then. He can hit the ball - he is an American player - but his thought process doesn't go much beyond that.
I hope he learned what even a "low ranked" pro can do to an inexperienced player and has coaches around him who can help him process what happened to him today.
MIchelson is #97 in year to date rankings with virtually nothing to defend the rest of the year. It's likely that he'll get direct entry into the Australian Open with just a handful of tour level wins this fall.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 12:07 am
He played a great first set but Jarry, who is seeded, changed things up (Massu among others were in his box) and Michelson wasn't able to keep up.
If he turns pro he needs to play Challengers for a while mixing in a 250 every now and then. He can hit the ball - he is an American player - but his thought process doesn't go much beyond that.
I hope he learned what even a "low ranked" pro can do to an inexperienced player and has coaches around him who can help him process what happened to him today.
MIchelson is #97 in year to date rankings with virtually nothing to defend the rest of the year. It's likely that he'll get direct entry into the Australian Open with just a handful of tour level wins this fall.
I have not seen him, but I would say you have to be more specific. What is he not ready for? Because he has proven he is ready to win one round at a slam. Going deep most likely not, but if the ranking says he can get direct entry, he is ready to play a second slam.
I have not seen him, but I would say you have to be more specific. What is he not ready for? Because he has proven he is ready to win one round at a slam. Going deep most likely not, but if the ranking says he can get direct entry, he is ready to play a second slam.
Can’t not go and pass up that check. Would be silly.
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by ashkor87 it is always fun to watch the young talents develop... hope he does.
by ti-amie He is not mentally ready.
by ponchi101
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:28 pm
He is not mentally ready.
But that is what I am asking you. He is not ready for what? Winning a slam? Because we always also say that you cannot be considered a favorite to win a slam until you win one.
I have not seen him play, so I am really lost about what to think about him.
by ti-amie Does it make more sense to say his game is immature? He will beat some folks and as has been said if he gets a WC into the AO he'd be nuts not to take the money but he needs work. The comms were saying he's supposed to be going to college in the fall but we'll see.
by ponchi101 Got you
by skatingfan
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 10:35 pm
Does it make more sense to say his game is immature? He will beat some folks and as has been said if he gets a WC into the AO he'd be nuts not to take the money but he needs work. The comms were saying he's supposed to be going to college in the fall but we'll see.
We're talking about Michelson right? He's already passed on college.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 10:35 pm
Does it make more sense to say his game is immature? He will beat some folks and as has been said if he gets a WC into the AO he'd be nuts not to take the money but he needs work. The comms were saying he's supposed to be going to college in the fall but we'll see.
We're talking about Michelson right? He's already passed on college.
The comms yesterday were talking as if it was still up in the air.
I just thought watching him yesterday that he had no idea how to adjust to what Jarry was doing and neither did whoever is coaching him. Who knows what he will accomplish going forward but his complete mental collapse yesterday didn't look to me as if he is ready to take on the pro's.
by ashkor87 Now I expect the semis will be Alcaraz vs DeMinaur, Djokovic versus Tiafoe... Tiafoe has a nice easy path to the semis, it looks like..
by ashkor87 btw I think he spells his name the European way 'Michelsen'
by Suliso
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 7:14 am
Now I expect the semis will be Alcaraz vs DeMinaur, Djokovic versus Tiafoe... Tiafoe has a nice easy path to the semis, it looks like..
You think Paul will be easy for him? I don't think I agree. Similar level players
by mick1303
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 7:14 am
Now I expect the semis will be Alcaraz vs DeMinaur, Djokovic versus Tiafoe... Tiafoe has a nice easy path to the semis, it looks like..
De Minaur did beat Medvedev twice. But both times in best of 3 matches. Medvedev despite all his flaws is an elite player, which De Minaur is not. In best of 5 elite players more often prevail. Also if Rublev will not be upset by Draper and will be facing De Minaur in the quarters instead of Medvedev, he will be more than happy.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 7:14 am
Now I expect the semis will be Alcaraz vs DeMinaur, Djokovic versus Tiafoe... Tiafoe has a nice easy path to the semis, it looks like..
You think Paul will be easy for him? I don't think I agree. Similar level players
Yes, to me it looks like totally 50-50 match-up.
by ashkor87
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 10:01 am
Yes, to me it looks like totally 50-50 match-up.
yes, same class players but I think Tiafoe has more fire in the belly.. that counts at a major.. and he is a showman, loves the big stage.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 12:07 am
He played a great first set but Jarry, who is seeded, changed things up (Massu among others were in his box) and Michelson wasn't able to keep up.
If he turns pro he needs to play Challengers for a while mixing in a 250 every now and then. He can hit the ball - he is an American player - but his thought process doesn't go much beyond that.
I hope he learned what even a "low ranked" pro can do to an inexperienced player and has coaches around him who can help him process what happened to him today.
MIchelson is #97 in year to date rankings with virtually nothing to defend the rest of the year. It's likely that he'll get direct entry into the Australian Open with just a handful of tour level wins this fall.
Agree but he is not ready.
I disagree--he's already won 3 challenger/futures titles and made 7 finals. Maybe not mentally ready to win a slam, but certainly enough to go pro.
by ashkor87 Let us not forget Michelsen is only 19! He will learn and grow..
by ashkor87 Djoko not moving well...towards the end of the Gojo match...looks tired
by ashkor87 Djokovic has a much easier path to the finals than Alcaraz has...lucky..
by ti-amie
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 3:23 pm
Djokovic has a much easier path to the finals than Alcaraz has...lucky..
Alcaraz has the murderers row. Djokovic has the cakewalk.
by ponchi101 Not anymore. I don't see Zverev putting much of a fight after yesterday's monster match. I agree that Daniil will be a tougher out for Carlos than either Ben/Francis, but not that much.
The ATP will get its dream final.
by skatingfan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:06 pm
Not anymore. I don't see Zverev putting much of a fight after yesterday's monster match. I agree that Daniil will be a tougher out for Carlos than either Ben/Francis, but not that much.
The ATP will get its dream final.
I agree, but I don't think it's just the ATP's dream final. I think everyone wants to see this match up in the final including most of the other players in the men's draw.
by ponchi101 I think Shelton, Tiafoe, Zverev, Medvedev and Rublev want to see another final
(I see your point).
by skatingfan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 8:15 pm
I think Shelton, Tiafoe, Zverev, Medvedev and Rublev want to see another final
(I see your point).
I'm not sure I think that's true of some of those players.
by ashkor87 The men's tournament is getting so predictable I am now watching only the semis on..and some of the young buckslike Michelsen and Shelton...
by nelslus Sadly, I think it's already time for a TAT Mod to go ahead and set up a "How Many Games Does Ben Get?" SF Poll. Still, what a crazy accomplishment for Ben. (EVEN if, perhaps, beating Tiafoe ain't all that incredible for Ben. BUT- hey, that Tommy Paul victory counts!!)
by meganfernandez
nelslus wrote:Sadly, I think it's already time for a TAT Mod to go ahead and set up a "How Many Games Does Ben Get?" SF Poll. Still, what a crazy accomplishment for Ben. (EVEN if, perhaps, beating Tiafoe ain't all that incredible for Ben. BUT- hey, that Tommy Paul victory counts!!)
If he serves big, he has a decent chance to take a set.
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by mick1303 I have a feeling that this time Rublev beats Medvedev and finally makes semis. Funny stat: Rublev, while being 2 years younger that DM, was in the slams quarters more than Medvedev. But Medvedev only lost once at this stage.
nelslus wrote:Sadly, I think it's already time for a TAT Mod to go ahead and set up a "How Many Games Does Ben Get?" SF Poll. Still, what a crazy accomplishment for Ben. (EVEN if, perhaps, beating Tiafoe ain't all that incredible for Ben. BUT- hey, that Tommy Paul victory counts!!)
If he serves big, he has a decent chance to take a set.
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Don't think so. The very thing that Novak will neutralize will be his serve. Goran will stand one foot inside the baseline and will be able to imitate Ben's serve to a T during today's and tomorrow's practice. And once Novak takes away Ben's serve, there will be very little else he can do.
nelslus wrote:Sadly, I think it's already time for a TAT Mod to go ahead and set up a "How Many Games Does Ben Get?" SF Poll. Still, what a crazy accomplishment for Ben. (EVEN if, perhaps, beating Tiafoe ain't all that incredible for Ben. BUT- hey, that Tommy Paul victory counts!!)
If he serves big, he has a decent chance to take a set.
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Don't think so. The very thing that Novak will neutralize will be his serve. Goran will stand one foot inside the baseline and will be able to imitate Ben's serve to a T during today's and tomorrow's practice. And once Novak takes away Ben's serve, there will be very little else he can do.
If Ben has a great serving day, Novak might neutralize it at times but I don't think he will take it away. He is mortal. Consistent 140 mph serves are hard for anyone to deal with. Ben was saving his serving arm last night (and had cupping marks on it like he'd had treatment). He was going for more 120s and mixing it up. Will be interesting to see what he does vs Novak, but I think he has to go for it on the serve. He doesn't want rallies.
by ti-amie
by ashkor87 Watson says 53% Medvedev 47% Djokovic..sounds fair to me ..I would say 55-45, practically the same...
by mick1303
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:37 am
Watson says 53% Medvedev 47% Djokovic..sounds fair to me ..I would say 55-45, practically the same...
This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
by skatingfan
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:43 am
This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
I'm not sure that a computer program is likely to suffer from recency bias.
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:43 am
This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
I'm not sure that a computer program is likely to suffer from recency bias.
It very much can )) It depends on the weight it puts on the recent matches. I would even say that computer program is more likely to do this thing than a human observer.
by ashkor87 Yes, certainly AI can have all kinds of biases but it learns with every match so unless recency is a real factor.. I personally don't think AI adjusts yet for nuances like crowd support, response to pressure, individual motivation or even match-ups of strengths and weaknesses, so I tend to disbelieve the AI prediction, normally. In this case, I was very impressed with M, rather unimpressed with Dj, and expect the crowd to be against both! The court is also fairly fast, which Med likes, So 55-45 Medvedev..
by mick1303 Too many factors to choose from. Hard to prioritize. You can look at success rate specifically in the finals as the measure of ability to handle the biggest pressure there is in tennis. Djokovic won 23 against 12 losses. Almost 2 out of 3. Meds won 1 out of 4 - 25%.
by mick1303 Medvedev was brilliant in the semis. But there was little pressure on him - Alcaraz was very strong betting favorite. This string of predictions tries to put that pressure on him. Although some prominent tennis observers on Yt did pick Djok: namely Gill Gross and Canadian Steven from Slice.
by ponchi101 I learned a long time ago not to bet against Novak.
60-40 Novak. But won't be surprised if Daniil wins (as I was when he beat Alcaraz).
by ti-amie
by meganfernandez A niche tennis reporter at the US Open...this guy works his tail off to find stories about lesser-known players that their local papers will commission. He makes about $50 per story.
It's Jeff Sackman of Tennis Abstract, the foremost tennis statistician online.
