Tennis Random, Random (On Court)

[meganfernandez]

No, no Megan. We're not taking all those four guys out - only Djokovic

If we were to "delete" all four Slam winners of course new ones would have to take their place.

Okay, sorry. I means Ruud or Kyrgios could win one if only Djokovic was out of the mix. I think the other three would be prohibitive favorites as a group, having distanced themselves with consistency, but none of them is a lock for the semis like the Big 3 players were. Sinner maybe now. But he hasn’t proven himself a champion for a whole season and across multiple surfaces yet.


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[ashkor87]

No, no Megan. We're not taking all those four guys out - only Djokovic

If we were to "delete" all four Slam winners of course new ones would have to take their place.

Okay, sorry. I means Ruud or Kyrgios could win one if only Djokovic was out of the mix. I think the other three would be prohibitive favorites as a group, having distanced themselves with consistency, but none of them is a lock for the semis like the Big 3 players were. Sinner maybe now. But he hasn’t proven himself a champion for a whole season and across multiple surfaces yet.


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what is the point of waiting for someone to win multiple majors before calling him/her a champion?! more fun to do it before....!

[nelslus]

Let's do a thought exercise. Djokovic has declined and AO SF's is his high mark at Slams this year. If that is true do we think there will be another new Slam champion this year? That is someone other than Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev.

....GREAT. Now Novak is certain to win (at least) the next 8 Slam titles. (*AND the gold medal).

[ponchi101]

No, no Megan. We're not taking all those four guys out - only Djokovic

If we were to "delete" all four Slam winners of course new ones would have to take their place.

Okay, sorry. I means Ruud or Kyrgios could win one if only Djokovic was out of the mix. I think the other three would be prohibitive favorites as a group, having distanced themselves with consistency, but none of them is a lock for the semis like the Big 3 players were. Sinner maybe now. But he hasn’t proven himself a champion for a whole season and across multiple surfaces yet.


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what is the point of waiting for someone to win multiple majors before calling him/her a champion?! more fun to do it before....!

Define champion. By definitions, CHAMPION is: you won some competition. So, Sinner is already a champion. For that process, Adrian Mannarino is already a champion (he has won 6 tournaments).
Now, CHAMPION, with all the euphemism, is something else. So, I say the cutoff is 3 Slams. Just so I can include Murray and Stan.
But if anybody says Aryna Sabalenka is a champion, that is fine with me.

[ashkor87]

Blinkova reminds me a bit of Pavlyuchenkova...

[ashkor87]

lots of bagels, as predicted, a slow court is a great bagel oven

[JTContinental]

Steve Johnson retired after his loss at Indian Wells. He finished his career with 4 ATP titles and an Olympic bronze in doubles.

[ponchi101]

That is not a bad career. I believe he can be a good coach. He was a made player, so he knows how to work hard.

[mick1303]

Saw a discussion on the best active WTA player to never win a slam. But can't find a thread where it was. The names of Muchova and Pegula were brought up. I like watching Muchova play - so smooth. But come on - only one title. In the WTA world comparing slams with other tournaments is MUCH more relevant. They all best of three. Pegula is almost 30, but only won 4 titles. Pliskova had 16 and Svitolina - 17. I think it shall be between those 2. Pliskova reached #1 and was in two slam finals. Svitolina won YEC and has more tier I titles - (4 against 2). So it is close.

[ashkor87]

Saw a discussion on the best active WTA player to never win a slam. But can't find a thread where it was. The names of Muchova and Pegula were brought up. I like watching Muchova play - so smooth. But come on - only one title. In the WTA world comparing slams with other tournaments is MUCH more relevant. They all best of three. Pegula is almost 30, but only won 4 titles. Pliskova had 16 and Svitolina - 17. I think it shall be between those 2. Pliskova reached #1 and was in two slam finals. Svitolina won YEC and has more tier I titles - (4 against 2). So it is close.

Yes, logically you are right. It is just that most people don't think Svitolina and Pliskova have much future now..their best days are behind them..Muchova, on the other hand, can still win a major...that wasn't the question I know but that is how people think, probably .Pegula is just wishful thinking by Americans

[Suliso]

I think it's easily Ons Jabeur with 3 GS finals. Albeit her best days are probably behind her too.

[ponchi101]

I think it's easily Ons Jabeur with 3 GS finals. Albeit her best days are probably behind her too.

Beat me to it. She had those 18 months there in which she was truly elite. Somehow, the level has dropped.

[ponchi101]

The men:
one of the following will win the tournament: Alcaraz, Djokovic, Zverev
Sinner, Medvedev will NOT
Michelsen will beat Tommy Paul in the second round assuming he survives the first round, which he may not
Taylor Fritz will 'do well'
all these, again, based on court speed and the IW draw

Time to review your predictions based on court speed.
Of your predicted winners, only Alcaraz remains. Granted, Zverev lost to him, but you (and everybody) were off mark regarding Novak.
Sinner and Medvedev are in the semis. Court speed has mattered little to them.
Michelsen did not beat Paul.
Fritz did well. Not great, but well.

[ponchi101]

still cant download the men's draw, so will wait for that.
as for the women,
one of the following will win the whole thing: Rybakina, Sabalenka, Swiatek.
these players will NOT win the whole thing: Coco, Pegula
Kostyuk and Pavlyuchenkova will 'do well' as defined above.
Osaka will not survive Samsonova
Noskova will not be able to beat Swiatek again - the court is much slower than the AO
Pliskova will beat Pegula in the second round (though I swore never to bet on or against Pliskova!)
Yastremska will beat Raducanu

these are predictions entirely based on court speed and the draw. Some of them may be 'far out' but we shall see.

Review:
Well, Swiatek has a clear path, but Elena withdrew (data inconclusive) and Aryna lost to Navarro. But predicting these three was a bit of going with the rankings.
Coco still has a chance to win it.
Kostyuk and PAVS did well, indeed.
Osaka survived Samsonova.
The Noskova prediction was a gimme.
Plsikova did not make the 2nd round, and therefore the prediction was untested.
Yastremska retired Vs Raducanu, but was 0-4 at the moment and not looking good.

I would say... you are around the 50% chance on almost all your predictions, based on court speed.

[ashkor87]

Good summary!! But let us revisit when the tournament ends..
I would make similar overall predictions for Miami but the freshness factor may be more decisive...whoever does well at IW will be a tired puppy..