Talk about the NFL

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Re: Talk about the NFL

#931

Post by ptmcmahon »

True to a point… but like usual it’s only a talking point when it doesn’t work. If they make both of those and win going for it in fourth down isn’t a talking point at all :)

For the most part coaches can only be questioned for plays that don’t work and don’t get much credit when the risky calls work.

I’ll have to find the video I just watched recently about the other extreme - the most cowardly punts ever - for example down 1 with 8 to play on opponents 35 on a fourth and one I think it was.

The real funny part was how many of the games they wind up winning.
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#932

Post by ptmcmahon »

Also worth pointing out, KC and Baltimore were a combined 3-4 on fourth down

KC had a fourth and two conversion on their first drive, then scored the opening touchdown. Next drive Baltimore converted a 4th and 1 (on their own 34!) and then scored a touchdown.

These were both in the first ten minutes of the game too.

But people in the media only draw attention to it when it doesn't work. Coaches can only do things wrong sometimes :)
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#933

Post by ptmcmahon »

And that’s why you go for it on fourth down sometimes. Field goal would have tied it… but they go for it,
Convert, and have the lead now.

Moody misses the extra point of course as well. Although earlier he set a record with longest super bowl field goal ever.

A record he held for less than half a game :)
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#934

Post by ti-amie »

I'm not a fan of defense dominated games. I love offense. That said I wasn't bored at all and when SF left so much time on the board in OT I felt that the only way KC loses is if someone drops the ball or commits a major penalty.

At the end they were comparing Mahomes/Reid to Jordan. High praise indeed.
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#935

Post by ptmcmahon »

With the new overtime rule KC were guaranteed a possession of however long they needed. SF didn’t leave them with too much time in ot.

That said in that situation it probably would’ve made sense to kick off so when they had the ball they’d know what they needed. But who knows how different it turns out.
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#936

Post by ti-amie »

ptmcmahon wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:23 am With the new overtime rule KC were guaranteed a possession of however long they needed. SF didn’t leave them with too much time in ot.

That said in that situation it probably would’ve made sense to kick off so when they had the ball they’d know what they needed. But who knows how different it turns out.
Ah I forgot about the new rules. Without them SF would be Super Bowl champions if I remember correctly?
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#937

Post by Fastbackss »

ptmcmahon wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:23 am With the new overtime rule KC were guaranteed a possession of however long they needed. SF didn’t leave them with too much time in ot.

That said in that situation it probably would’ve made sense to kick off so when they had the ball they’d know what they needed. But who knows how different it turns out.
The time was immaterial with the new rules. If the time had elapsed a new "quarter" would have started
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#938

Post by ptmcmahon »

ti-amie wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:04 am
ptmcmahon wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:23 am With the new overtime rule KC were guaranteed a possession of however long they needed. SF didn’t leave them with too much time in ot.

That said in that situation it probably would’ve made sense to kick off so when they had the ball they’d know what they needed. But who knows how different it turns out.
Ah I forgot about the new rules. Without them SF would be Super Bowl champions if I remember correctly?
Actually the previous playoff rules were same as the current regular season rules - so an opening drive field goal would not end the game ... only a TD. They changed the rules then just for playoffs to make sure each team was guaranteed a possession.

You'd have to go back two sets of overtime rules for that to be a SF win :)

Still that's got to be a crazy thing to get to claim. You were winning the Super Bowl in overtime... and lost :)
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#939

Post by ti-amie »

First in a series...

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Re: Talk about the NFL

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Part 2 of 2

How Kyle Shanahan's 49ers lost the Super Bowl after winning the OT coin flip

Dan Wetzel
Columnist
Mon, Feb 12, 2024, 2:13 PM EST

LAS VEGAS — The overtime coin flip came up tails, and San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan faced a decision never before made in Super Bowl history.

The NFL’s new playoff rule called for each team to get the ball at least once in overtime. That meant Shanhahan’s 49ers had the option to take the ball first or kick it off to Kansas City and bat second — either by KC kickoff after a score, a punt or a turnover.

He chose to take the ball.

He should have chosen to go second, not merely because Kansas City eventually turned a 19-19 tie into a 25-22 Super Bowl victory.

For San Francisco, the coin-flip decision was the culmination of a disastrous second half that led to its second consecutive crushing Super Bowl defeat to the Chiefs after leading by double digits.

To say there is a definitive answer — especially analytically — would be ridiculous. It’s a scenario that had never before occurred. Still, Shanahan's 49ers should've been prepared to make it, and multiple players admitted after the game that they didn't know the new overtime rules.

Shanahan’s decision will be picked apart like many others in this defeat: getting away from the run game that could have killed clock, the inability of the offense to do much of anything in the early third quarter and the fact that Shanahan now has three brutal Super Bowl defeats — two in San Francisco plus a blown 28-3 lead to New England when he was the offensive coordinator in Atlanta.

By choosing to receive rather than kick, Shanahan allowed the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to get the ball with more information to factor into their play-calling. It also meant less data for him.

When San Francisco drove down the field, it did not know that Kansas City would eventually score a touchdown. It’s why Shanahan said he “never thought about” going for it on fourth-and-4. Instead, the Niners kicked a field goal.

That meant Kansas City knew it needed to score and would never consider punting as an option.

As such, when the Chiefs faced fourth-and-1 from their own 34-yard line, they went for it. Had that same scenario played out on the first drive of overtime, Kansas City would've almost assuredly punted and allowed San Francisco to win it with a field goal.


Instead, Mahomes made a clever 8-yard run, and the drive rolled on until it found Lombardi Trophy paydirt.

Shanahan was left trying to explain his thinking.

“None of us have a ton of experience with it,” he said. “But we went through all the analytics and talked to those guys. We just thought it would be better. We wanted the ball third. If both teams matched and scored, we wanted to be the ones who had the chance to go win.”

His thinking was that if both teams were either forced to punt, kicked a field goal or scored a touchdown, then San Francisco would have the chance to score and win on the third possession. (Under the rules, Kansas City would not be assured another chance.) Shanahan said giving his defense a rest didn’t play into the decision.

“Our biggest thing is we knew both teams were going to get the ball at least once, so we wanted to make sure if we won the toss, we would be the team that got it the third time,” Shanahan said.

It’s not completely lacking in reasoning, but it is to defer an advantage three possessions into the future.

That means getting there … against Patrick Mahomes.

Allowing the Chiefs to go for it on fourth down was akin to a turnover. It was a second chance for the most dangerous late-game quarterback in the game, and he burned them for it. The decision also allowed Kansas City to make second- and third-down calls throughout the drive knowing it would have an extra play. It incalculably changed the decision-making.

And even under Shanahan’s scenario of getting the ball third if both teams scored, that would be the case only if the Chiefs were held to a field goal. If San Francisco had scored a touchdown and Kansas City responded, head coach Andy Reid would have had the option of winning the game with a 2-point conversion.

Shanahan essentially gave all the power and all the advantage of winning the coin flip to Kansas City for the first two possessions of the game and needed a specific result to get to the point of the game to regain it.

“[We] got that field goal, so [we] knew we had to hold them to at least a field goal, and if we did, we thought it was in our hands after that,” Shanahan said.

Not surprisingly, Mahomes and Co. never gave him the chance.

https://sports.yahoo.com/kyle-shanahans ... 26345.html
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#941

Post by ptmcmahon »

I will never understand how coaches make these obviously wrong decisions in those scenarios ... or don't know the rules.

Meanwhile I'm on the couch saying "clearly whoever wins toss should choose to kick" and I can explain the overtime rules to others I'm with. As soon as SF say they want the ball I immediately know it's a mistake.

Never makes sense to me :)

And college football has the guaranteed possessions for both teams... so they cant say they aren't aware of the strategy of this.
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#942

Post by ptmcmahon »

And for fun I asked my son last night (who was only allowed to stay up until halftime :) ) what he would do if he won the coin toss in overtime. He looked at me like it was a trick question and said "Well, of course you would kick so they have the ball first. You'd be dumb not to."
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#943

Post by ti-amie »

“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
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Re: Talk about the NFL

#944

Post by ptmcmahon »

Ahhh... the old ignorance defense. Still mind boggling that there could be players that actually ... just don't pay any attention to rules? It was a huge deal after the Buffalo - KC game a few years ago and the rule was changed.
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