Horse Racing Random

[dryrunguy]

I knew I was forgetting something from that race. Todd Pletcher had two horses in the race: Bourbonic at 72-1 and Dynamic One at 15-1. They finished first and second. A $2 bet on the Todd Pletcher exacta paid $906.

[Fastbackss]

All these horse names with bourbon in them...

[dryrunguy]

The final two Kentucky Derby prep races went off today. In the Stonestreet Lexington at Keeneland, there was a huge upset of the favorite, Godolphin-owned Proxy. Here's the race. Unfortunately, if I understand things correctly, the win did not give King Fury enough points to make the Derby field. His owners may still be able to get him in if they are willing to pay.

Also of note in this race, Baffert-trained Bezos (#3), a $400K purchase coming off his first win in a 1-mile race at Santa Anita, was near the front until he progressively started going backward. He finished last and put up a preliminary Equibase speed figure of 37. Bezos was "supposed" to be Baffert's top 3-year-old this year. Now it is looking iffy as to whether he will ever have a stallion career. There's still time, though.

[dryrunguy]

And here is today's Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. MASSIVE upset. The owners of Super Stock (#1), which includes Keith Asmussen, father of the trainer Steve Asmussen, should send flowers and part of the purse money to Florent Geroux, the jockey aboard Caddo River, for taking all of the mustard out of the heavy race favorite, the Baffert-trained Concert Tour, a home-bred for Gary and Mary West.

This was a "win and you're in" race for the Derby. Concert Tour will still get in based on points. So will Caddo River. Whether those horses actually run or not is up to the connections.

[dryrunguy]

Danceswithbourbon will race at Indiana Grand on 4/20--6 runners at 6 furlongs on dirt, $36K race, I believe. The race barely filled. I am still waiting for other details.

There's also a chance another filly of mine, Rock Along, will race at Keeneland on the closing day of the Keeneland Spring Meet on 4/22. That is up in the air. She had a minor hoof problem about a week ago--not a big deal. If it goes, she'll run on turf. But first, we need confirmation she is 100% sound and good to go. Stay tuned.

[dryrunguy]

I had a chance to take a look at the field for the next race for DWB (Danceswithbourbon--those of us in the partnership use DWB in our correspondence). It's actually field of seven--not six. Early indications are that the weather will be a little chilly but still ideal.

There are two horses in the field that look pretty tough--Patty H and Shades of Truth.

I remember Patty H. In her last race at Gulfstream on 3/26, she beat a horse named To A T, which is owned by the more expensive syndicate affiliated with Shooting Star, my other partnership. In fact, Patty H has won two of her last three. She's a really nice horse and will be tough to beat. She's trained by Brad Cox, who is regarded in some circles as a doper that would make Bob Baffert look like a boy scout. (He also trains Essential Quality, who is headed to the Derby.)

Shades of Truth has raced five times with a win and two second place finishes. She's been running at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and is trained by Tom Amoss. She's also coming in off of a bullet work at Delta Downs on April 5 (fastest of 17 at 4 furlongs).

What I do not understand is why both of those fillies are dropping so much lower in class. If this was a claiming race, it would be highly suspicious.

This will be a tall task for DWB. And it is very common for horses to NOT win after they break their maiden, especially for a horse that won first-time out. But it is not impossible. Especially since Patty H and Shades of Truth are front-runners. If their jockeys get stupid trying to beat each other, it could open the door for someone else to close in and pick up the pieces, which we already know DWB likes to do.

We'll see. Given how difficult it is to win when facing winners, I would be delighted with a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

[Ribbons]

Harvesting some mint this morning jolted me into realizing that the Kentucky Derby is nigh and that I hadn't looked at the leaderboard since, like, December.

. . . Good heavens, Essential Quality has been in a league of his own so far, yes?

Dry, what are your thoughts on Soup and Sandwich?

[ponchi101]

I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.

[dryrunguy]

Harvesting some mint this morning jolted me into realizing that the Kentucky Derby is nigh and that I hadn't looked at the leaderboard since, like, December.

. . . Good heavens, Essential Quality has been in a league of his own so far, yes?

Dry, what are your thoughts on Soup and Sandwich?

Essential Quality will be very tough, especially if the track is wet. It's hard to cap it properly since we haven't had the post position draw yet. The outside posts are supposed to be highly disadvantageous, but that certainly wasn't the case last year as both Authentic and Tiz the Law broke from the outside gate.

I liked Rock Your World A LOT for this race--that is, until his connections pulled Umberto Rispoli (who has never had a mount in the Derby) off the horse, even though he rode Rock Your World in his last two starts, in favor of Joel Rosario, who rode him in his first race--all three were wins. It makes sense. Joel Rosario is one of the hottest riders in Kentucky at the moment. But that's a brutally cold deal for Umberto.

As for Soup and Sandwich, even though he didn't win his last race (second in the Florida Derby to Known Agenda), that race was a monstrous improvement for him. If he continues to improve like he did between his second and third races, he's right there in the conversation.

BTW, I don't think I mentioned here that Bob Baffert's Concert Tour is OUT. I'll have to look at the field again, but this could be the first year in a long time where Baffert doesn't have a serious contender. At least in my estimation. I reserve the right to change my mind about that, though.

A side observation: This is the second crop of American Pharoah 3-year-olds--and he has yet to have a legitimate contender on the Derby trail. His stud fee is now down to $100K. It was $250K.

[dryrunguy]

I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.

Sorry, no Guac and Mole. But I DID find an Oodles of Noodles (https://www.pedigreequery.com/oodles+of+noodles) and a Mac and Cheese (https://www.pedigreequery.com/mac+and+cheese). But Mac and Cheese is a gelding that never raced.

[JazzNU]

I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.

Really hope some horse owner steals that one from you.

[Ribbons]

For the record, I was asking about Soup and Sandwich (mostly) because he's a gray.

For what it's worth, there are four horses named Guacamole in Equibase. And seven named Salsa, seven named Taco, six named Picante, three named Queso, and five named Chimichanga.

[dryrunguy]

Here are the latest Derby odds. There will be multiple versions of these from different sources over the next several days:

Essential Quality 9/5
Rock Your World 9/2
Hot Rod Charlie 17/2
Highly Motivated 7/1
Super Stock 10/1
Known Agenda 10/1
Bourbonic 12/1
Medina Spirit 16/1
Helium 16/1
Dynamic One 16/1
Caddo River 16/1
Sainthood 20/1
Midnight Bourbon 20/1
Like The King 20/1
Dream Shake 20/1
Crowded Trade 20/1
Soup And Sandwich 25/1
Proxy 25/1
O Besos 25/1
King Fury 25/1
Keepmeinmind 30/1
Hidden Stash 40/1
Get Her Number 40/1
Hozier 66/1
Hockey Dad 150/1

https://turfnsport.com/updated-2021-ken ... erby-odds/

[JazzNU]

That looks like a pick 'em after the top 2. Way too bunched together in odds. Two truly long shots? They are definitely guessing at it right now and need some action to come in.

[dryrunguy]

There are two horses in the field that look pretty tough--Patty H and Shades of Truth.

I remember Patty H. In her last race at Gulfstream on 3/26, she beat a horse named To A T, which is owned by the more expensive syndicate affiliated with Shooting Star, my other partnership. In fact, Patty H has won two of her last three. She's a really nice horse and will be tough to beat. She's trained by Brad Cox, who is regarded in some circles as a doper that would make Bob Baffert look like a boy scout. (He also trains Essential Quality, who is headed to the Derby.)

Shades of Truth has raced five times with a win and two second place finishes. She's been running at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and is trained by Tom Amoss. She's also coming in off of a bullet work at Delta Downs on April 5 (fastest of 17 at 4 furlongs).

What I do not understand is why both of those fillies are dropping so much lower in class. If this was a claiming race, it would be highly suspicious.

Patty H was scratched this morning by the track veterinarian. That changes everything. Post time is 5 p.m.