2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

Can you beat the draw? Just one measly pick a day...

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joanjettson Brazil
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#31

Post by joanjettson »

The Fearnley picker and Jason Goodall know something I don't - I will have to check him out :)
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#32

Post by meganfernandez »

joanjettson wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2025 7:24 pm The Fearnley picker and Jason Goodall know something I don't - I will have to check him out :)
I’ve been saving Fearnley….

Seriously I flirted with taking Cazaux. Went as far as looking up their recent activity.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#33

Post by dave g »

Day 5 Pick Summary

Start 46

Michelsen 21
Khachanov 7
Monfils 7
Hurkacz 3
Cerundolo 2
De Minaur 2
Shelton 1
Tiafoe 2
Fonseca 1

Alive 40
Dead 6
Unknown 0
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#34

Post by dave g »

Day 6 Pick Summary

Start 40

Draper 19
Lehecka 16
Mensik 3
Paul 1
Zverev 1

Alive 37
Dead 3
Unknown 0

Comments:

Draper and Lehecka look like good picks.
Mensik: I haven't seen him play, so I don't know how confident I would be with this pick.
Paul: You will need to be careful with your future picks, but there is space in the draw for you to succeed.
Zverev: You will need Zverev to lose one of his next to matches to beat the draw. Admittedly, the goal is to beat everyone else, and not necessarily to beat the draw. But your future picks will leave you with almost no room for error.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#35

Post by dave g »

Day 7 Pick Summary

Start 37

Rune 13
De Minaur 11
Khachanov 3
Sonego 4
Moutet 2
Tien 2
Michelsen 1
Sinner 1


Alive 32
Dead 5
Unknown 0

Comments:

It's not clear that there any truely good picks out there. Almost every pick comes with dangers.

There Will Be Blood: We have picks on both sides of Michelsen vs Khachanov and Moutet vs Tien. If you are on the right side of one of these two matches, you should be in good shape.

Rune: This tournament, Rune has has a way of turning standard matches into 5-setters. You might be right, but this one will be hard on the nerves. If you make it through, you should be in pretty good shape.

De Minaur: Who are you going to pick on Day 9 and 11. It looks like you are headed into a tight spot.

Sinner: You should make it through today, but then what?
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#36

Post by karlovicfanclub »

dave g wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 12:34 am
Comments:

It's not clear that there any truely good picks out there. Almost every pick comes with dangers.

There Will Be Blood: We have picks on both sides of Michelsen vs Khachanov and Moutet vs Tien. If you are on the right side of one of these two matches, you should be in good shape.

Rune: This tournament, Rune has has a way of turning standard matches into 5-setters. You might be right, but this one will be hard on the nerves. If you make it through, you should be in pretty good shape.

De Minaur: Who are you going to pick on Day 9 and 11. It looks like you are headed into a tight spot.

Sinner: You should make it through today, but then what?
I picked de Minaur. If I can make it to Day 9 and 11, I will be happy to have made it that far and will deal with it. I had already used Tien and Michelsen, and I didn't have enough confidence in either Khachanov or Moutet to pick them. As for Rune, there's nothing predictable about him, and at this stage in pool, I wasn't ready to throw my chances on him or Kecmanovic.
I was already taking a flyer with Lys in the women's pool for Day 7.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#37

Post by GreenGourd »

Hi, Dave. I've been marked red after Day 6, but my pick, Jack Draper, won that day (barely!). And my Day 7 pick, Rune, also won (barely!). Take a look?

Thanks for all the work on this!
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#38

Post by dave g »

GreenGourd wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 7:48 pm Hi, Dave. I've been marked red after Day 6, but my pick, Jack Draper, won that day (barely!). And my Day 7 pick, Rune, also won (barely!). Take a look?

Thanks for all the work on this!
Sorry about that. You were never marked red in my records. The problem was from the player listed after you. When I mark someone red, I have to mark them red at the beginning of the line, and turn the red off at the end of the line. When I marked the player after you red, I forgot to turn the red off at the end of the line. For some reason, this turned your line red when I posted it to this thread. There were several other possible people accidentally showing up red, but they should be fixed now. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#39

Post by catman »

dave g wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:18 pm
GreenGourd wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 7:48 pm Hi, Dave. I've been marked red after Day 6, but my pick, Jack Draper, won that day (barely!). And my Day 7 pick, Rune, also won (barely!). Take a look?

Thanks for all the work on this!
Sorry about that. You were never marked red in my records. The problem was from the player listed after you. When I mark someone red, I have to mark them red at the beginning of the line, and turn the red off at the end of the line. When I marked the player after you red, I forgot to turn the red off at the end of the line. For some reason, this turned your line red when I posted it to this thread. There were several other possible people accidentally showing up red, but they should be fixed now. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
Seems the same happened to me. I went to sleep expecting ADM to lose, but was surprised he won...
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#40

Post by dave g »

catman wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2025 1:49 am
dave g wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:18 pm
GreenGourd wrote: Sat Jan 18, 2025 7:48 pm Hi, Dave. I've been marked red after Day 6, but my pick, Jack Draper, won that day (barely!). And my Day 7 pick, Rune, also won (barely!). Take a look?

Thanks for all the work on this!
Sorry about that. You were never marked red in my records. The problem was from the player listed after you. When I mark someone red, I have to mark them red at the beginning of the line, and turn the red off at the end of the line. When I marked the player after you red, I forgot to turn the red off at the end of the line. For some reason, this turned your line red when I posted it to this thread. There were several other possible people accidentally showing up red, but they should be fixed now. Thanks for pointing that out to me.
Seems the same happened to me. I went to sleep expecting ADM to lose, but was surprised he won...
I have no clue why that happened. I checked my records, and you were not red. So, I re-did the copy-and-paste, and now you are no longer red. I made absolutely no change to the source records, but your color changed.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#41

Post by dave g »

Day 8 Pick Summary

Start 32

Paul 25
Djokovic 6
Alcaraz 1

Alive 32
Dead 0
Unknown 0

Comments:
Almost all of our reasonable picks have been limited by our previous picks. All I can really say is "Good Luck".
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#42

Post by meganfernandez »

dave g wrote: Sun Jan 19, 2025 3:05 am Day 8 Pick Summary

Start 32

Paul 25
Djokovic 6
Alcaraz 1

Alive 0
Dead 0
Unknown 32

Comments:
Almost all of our reasonable picks have been limited by our previous picks. All I can really say is "Good Luck".
Paul cruised. Let’s see if the next round thins this thing out.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#43

Post by dave g »

Day 9 Pick Summary

Start 32

De Minaur 17
Sonego 12
Monfils 2
Tien 1

Alive 29
Dead 3
Unknown 0

Things are getting pretty tight. Good Luck.
We do have picks on both sides of Sonego vs Tien.
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Re: 2025 Australian Open Survivor Pool: ATP Picks and Results

#44

Post by ashkor87 »

Today Chatgpt says DeMinaur
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