WTA ATP Aus Open 1/17 - 1/30 2022

[ashkor87]

I find it odd that nobody is picking Raducanu! My reason is the same ..she needs a fast court..if the Ausopen is fast ...I tend to discount all the psycho stuff about pressure because everyone handles pressure differently and she will have her support team to insulate her..

[meganfernandez]

Now that the 2021 is over...
Predictions for AO 22-

Women:
Muguruza 30%
Sabalenka 20%
Osaka 20%
Barty 10%
The field 20%
Men, will wait for Djokovic !
If he plays,
Djokovic 40%
Zverev 30%
Medvedev 20%
Nadal 5%
The field 5%

WTA
first-time winner, 50%... Sabalenka, Badosa, Kontaveit, and Fernandez are my top contenders, in that order.
Everyone else is a crapshoot. Don't know how Osaka is doing, if Barty will handle the pressure better than 2020, if Muguruza will get injured or continue her up-and-down pattern.
Wide open.

ATP
Djokovic 50% if he shows up
Medvedev 45% ditto, can't remember if he is vaccinated or not
The field 5%

Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

I always thought Svitolina's problem is her serve, particularly her second serve. Just can't get past the big hitters when they are in form at the end of a Slam. I thought the French 2020 was her big chance, but I guess no one was getting by Swiatek anyway. I also don't think Svitolia's chances are over. Just never know. I think she'll still be in the mix, and if the draw breaks right and she's confident, who knows. I feel like there are a lot of players with those circumstances.

[meganfernandez]

I find it odd that nobody is picking Raducanu! My reason is the same ..she needs a fast court..if the Ausopen is fast ...I tend to discount all the psycho stuff about pressure because everyone handles pressure differently and she will have her support team to insulate her..

is the Aussie court really that slow? It's slow-ish as hard courts go, but is it a SLOW surface? Or kind of neutral? Anyway, I wouldn't pick Raducanu but it also wouldn't surprise me if she has a nice tournament (or just wins a couple rounds). I also just can't pick any one player at this point! It's impossible! So many contenders, right? It will be interesting to see how the warm-ups go and who shows up healthy.

[ponchi101]

...
Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

Anett went on a tear by the end of the year, as you know. As a matter of fact, it seemed that the sole player she could not beat was Mugu.
You see, the problem right now is that the winners have been so varied that if you mention somebody that CANNOT win, it is not that hard to find a counterexample. Badosa is overrated? Maybe, but she won IW. Ons? Maybe too, but she has been climbing steadily. All over the place, they all have a story of success recently. Fernandez reached the final at the USO, the hard court slam right before this one, and we know they are different surfaces but not so incredibly different than success in one cannot translate to the other (see Naomi, winning her slams as back-to-back USO-Aussies).
I still say: get ready for an unseeded player lifting that trophy. Or seeded below 16. Tauson breaks through, Muchova, Osorio-Serrano. Living with Gael finally taught Elina to go for it. Get ready for a wide open tournament, on the women's.

[meganfernandez]

...
Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

Anett went on a tear by the end of the year, as you know. As a matter of fact, it seemed that the sole player she could not beat was Mugu.
You see, the problem right now is that the winners have been so varied that if you mention somebody that CANNOT win, it is not that hard to find a counterexample. Badosa is overrated? Maybe, but she won IW. Ons? Maybe too, but she has been climbing steadily. All over the place, they all have a story of success recently. Fernandez reached the final at the USO, the hard court slam right before this one, and we know they are different surfaces but not so incredibly different than success in one cannot translate to the other (see Naomi, winning her slams as back-to-back USO-Aussies).
I still say: get ready for an unseeded player lifting that trophy. Or seeded below 16. Tauson breaks through, Muchova, Osorio-Serrano. Living with Gael finally taught Elina to go for it. Get ready for a wide open tournament, on the women's.

FWIW, among the 11 first-time winners since the start of 2017, only four were ranked outside the top 20 when they won. Most were 15 or higher. So I still think the winner is likely a Top 20 seed. Muchova's not playing, fyi. Tauson, sure, one of the most dangerous unseeded players, but i'd still consider it a surprise. Her ranking is about where Ostapenko's was when she won. I'd give Gauff, the forgotten prospect, a better chance. Kvitova has done well there. What about Azarenka, if she's fit?

[ponchi101]

I did not mention Coco because by now I believe she can be included in contender status. If she were to win it, my level of surprise would be not that big. I don't consider her a favorite but her progress continues.
Kvitova will remain to me the one that always could but something happened. And Vika I believe is past her prime. She is good enough to beat seeded players, but 7 matches in a row is a bit outside her realm right now. But again, if she wins, no surprise. She is a two time champion there.

[Liamvalid]

Just reading about Novak not being able to compete without a vaccine, unless he is medically exempt. Just wondered if anyone knows what likely exemptions there would be for one of the fittest men on the planet! Does he have any health issues that he could use as an excuse not to get vaccinated? Is it such a health issue that made him an anti-vaxer in the first place?

[ti-amie]

Just reading about Novak not being able to compete without a vaccine, unless he is medically exempt. Just wondered if anyone knows what likely exemptions there would be for one of the fittest men on the planet! Does he have any health issues that he could use as an excuse not to get vaccinated? Is it such a health issue that made him an anti-vaxer in the first place?

Preferential treatment for one player?

[ponchi101]

I was about to write you a long reply and then realized how futile that would be. So the answers to your questions are: no. There are no valid reasons for him to refuse this vaccine. He is simply in that portion of the population that simply did not understand science a long time ago and went down this path, and because they are healthy believe they are right.

[meganfernandez]

Just reading about Novak not being able to compete without a vaccine, unless he is medically exempt. Just wondered if anyone knows what likely exemptions there would be for one of the fittest men on the planet! Does he have any health issues that he could use as an excuse not to get vaccinated? Is it such a health issue that made him an anti-vaxer in the first place?

Preferential treatment for one player?

doesn't he have asthma or a deviated septum or something? Anyway, it doesn't have to be REAL. Has to be legitimized enough for the review panel to give him an exemption. I have no idea if they are inclined/hoping to do so or not, just meaning that I'm sure he can conjure up any medical records he would need to make a case.

[meganfernandez]

I did not mention Coco because by now I believe she can be included in contender status. If she were to win it, my level of surprise would be not that big. I don't consider her a favorite but her progress continues.
Kvitova will remain to me the one that always could but something happened. And Vika I believe is past her prime. She is good enough to beat seeded players, but 7 matches in a row is a bit outside her realm right now. But again, if she wins, no surprise. She is a two time champion there.

I think we're honing in on a shared definition of "surprise." For me, no one inside the Top 30 will be a surprise except Zidansk. Of the Top 30, I'd be most surprised by:

Rybakina (but we know what she's capable of, and she started 2020 as the hottest player on tour before the shutdown)
Kasatkina (ditto, she has the game, just doesn't produce very often)
Pegula (she'd have to raise her level from the top of what we've seen to win 7 in a row)
Jabeur (does she believe?)
Sakkari (has to work soooo hard to win matches... 7 is a tough ask)

[JazzNU]

doesn't he have asthma or a deviated septum or something? Anyway, it doesn't have to be REAL. Has to be legitimized enough for the review panel to give him an exemption. I have no idea if they are inclined/hoping to do so or not, just meaning that I'm sure he can conjure up any medical records he would need to make a case.

The deviated septum he had was corrected years ago. But I can't stress this strongly enough, neither of those is even remotely a reason for a valid medical vaccination exemption.

[ashkor87]

...
Yes, I agree Kontaveit in particular could be the surprise packet..
As usual, given my pet theme, I think the court will be too slow for Fernandes, probably suit Sabalenka best..except Sabalenka does not seem to have learned to stay calm when the finish line is near...she will get over it, though, some day..as for the rest, I think Badosa is a mite over-rated, like Svtolina..

Anett went on a tear by the end of the year, as you know. As a matter of fact, it seemed that the sole player she could not beat was Mugu.
You see, the problem right now is that the winners have been so varied that if you mention somebody that CANNOT win, it is not that hard to find a counterexample. Badosa is overrated? Maybe, but she won IW. Ons? Maybe too, but she has been climbing steadily. All over the place, they all have a story of success recently. Fernandez reached the final at the USO, the hard court slam right before this one, and we know they are different surfaces but not so incredibly different than success in one cannot translate to the other (see Naomi, winning her slams as back-to-back USO-Aussies).
I still say: get ready for an unseeded player lifting that trophy. Or seeded below 16. Tauson breaks through, Muchova, Osorio-Serrano. Living with Gael finally taught Elina to go for it. Get ready for a wide open tournament, on the women's.

FWIW, among the 11 first-time winners since the start of 2017, only four were ranked outside the top 20 when they won. Most were 15 or higher. So I still think the winner is likely a Top 20 seed. Muchova's not playing, fyi. Tauson, sure, one of the most dangerous unseeded players, but i'd still consider it a surprise. Her ranking is about where Ostapenko's was when she won. I'd give Gauff, the forgotten prospect, a better chance. Kvitova has done well there. What about Azarenka, if she's fit?

Yes, agree about vika, I had kind of forgotten n her..she has at least a 10% chance...

[ashkor87]

I find it odd that nobody is picking Raducanu! My reason is the same ..she needs a fast court..if the Ausopen is fast ...I tend to discount all the psycho stuff about pressure because everyone handles pressure differently and she will have her support team to insulate her..

is the Aussie court really that slow? It's slow-ish as hard courts go, but is it a SLOW surface? Or kind of neutral? Anyway, I wouldn't pick Raducanu but it also wouldn't surprise me if she has a nice tournament (or just wins a couple rounds). I also just can't pick any one player at this point! It's impossible! So many contenders, right? It will be interesting to see how the warm-ups go and who shows up healthy.

Well, last year it was not slow, but we never really know .they change it every year without intending to perhaps..

[Deuce]

Contemplating Gauff, Raducanu, and Leylah...
I'd say that, of the three, Gauff's ascension is the 'healthiest', as hers has been a slow, steady rise. She got a lot of attention a few years ago at Wimbledon - but 95% of that was because she beat one of her idols, Venus. Since then, she has risen in the rankings slowly - two steps forward, one step back kind of thing. This way, she was never overwhelmed at a young age.

Leylah had been rising steadily, as well - if more slowly than Gauff... until last September. Her natural ascension was thus disturbed - suddenly thrust into the spotlight that she hadn't time to prepare for. I've been watching her closely for a few years, always believing in her - but I will be watching especially closely now, to see how she deals with her sudden, unnatural rise. I honestly expect her to have a rather mediocre year in 2022, with nothing anything like what she did at the U.S. Open. I don't believe that's her true level. Yet. I would have preferred that she continue her slow, steady rise, as I feel that would have been better for her long term development.

Raducanu's rise has been the most meteoric of the three. That's not a good thing in my opinion. No-one knew her when she suddenly and very surprisingly did well at Wimbledon. And it wasn't long before the attention and expectations affected her (negatively), causing her an anxiety which had her retire from a match there.
But then, even more surprisingly to me, she rebounded amazingly at the U.S. Open and won the thing. Given what had occurred at Wimbledon only a few months previous, winning the U.S. Open was truly an impressive accomplishment.
But was it 'too much too soon'? Everything that's happened with her on the court since then would certainly suggest that it was too much too soon. And, as with Leylah, I think it would have been better for her long term tennis career to have progressed much more slowly and steadily.
That said, both Leylah and Emma are so young that, even if they have a terrible 2022, they can still rebound from that and be top 20 players in the years which follow.
As long as they have patience and don't want too much too soon.