Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[ti-amie]

Thread by Robert Saunders
@redhistorian
Author of "Yes to Europe! The 1975 Referendum & Seventies Britain". "A jaw-dislocating page turner"(Andrew Marr). Co-director
@MileEndInst
, Reader
@QMHistory
Oxfordgladstonediaries.blogspot.co.uk


As carnage rains down on Ukraine, the consequences for British politics are trivial by comparison. But they are worth considering nonetheless, not least because they are more subject to our control. There are optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. [THREAD]
1. In the optimistic scenario, the UK begins to roll back some of the more destructive tendencies of its politics. It finally tackles London's role as a laundromat for dirty money, overhauling legal & regulatory systems that protect stolen wealth & shield its owners from scrutiny

2. In this scenario, UK politics ends its heroin-addiction on donations from the super-rich. It shuts down the Advisory Boards, unincorporated associations & cash-for-access networks through which the tendrils of plutocracy force their way into democratic politics & choke it off.

3. It begins to address the absurd mismatch between the scale of Britain's global ambitions & the resources it's willing to commit to them. And it starts to pursue a grown-up, post-Brexit relationship with the EU, rather than pretending that the EU ceased to exist in January 2020

4. In this pathway, the UK rebuilds the defences against the political model Putin represents. It rejects the lure of authoritarian "strong men", upholds independent media, fortifies the state against corruption & recognises the danger when leaders lie to the public with impunity

5. Perhaps most optimistically, govt recognises the costs that sanctions will impose at home, as food & fuel prices rise. It acknowledges that the burden cannot fall on the poorest; that if the UK is to present a united front abroad, it needs to rebalance burden-sharing at home.

6. That's the optimistic scenario. But the forces against which it's pushing are deeply embedded. It's no accident that London became the oligarchic playground of choice. For years, those close to power actively promoted that model to the world.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cons ... -ddc93mdgm

7. Rewiring the legal and regulatory architecture of oligarchy would be a long and complex task: not the sort of thing at which British politics excels. More likely: govt will give itself powers to sanction specific individuals, while leaving the fundamental problems unaddressed.

8. So the pessimistic scenario is that current events simply exacerbate the problems of UK politics. Instead of reforming the law, we'll enhance the ability of govt to override it. We'll have more chest-thumping about global leadership, while ignoring the resource gap beneath it.

9. There's already a serious danger that economic pressure on the Russian state, and on the foreign assets of its elite, morphs into a kulturkampf on ordinary Russians living abroad. We've seen appalling statements from some MPs to this effect.

https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/28/ukraine- ... s-16188822

12. Unless there is a serious and sustained attempt at sharing the domestic costs of sanctions, legitimate concern about energy prices may accelerate the backlash against Net Zero - a force that's been building on the Right for some time.

13. The war on Ukraine is raising hard political questions across the world: from defence spending in Germany, to nuclear policy in Japan, to the Trump legacy in the US. In Britain, we badly need an end to illusions. The danger is that we choose instead to retreat into them. ENDS

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500 ... 30181.html

[ponchi101]

Two thoroughly depressive posts. Incredible, yet totally believable.

[mmmm8]

BTW.
A horrific fact. There are 1 million displaced Ukrainians, just in 7 days of war. For comparison, there were 2.4 million displacements from the Balkans, in 10 years of war.
Both horrific figures, but it shows how fast this is developing.

My speculation is that this is good, I'm surprised more have not left yet (but I guess this also accounts for most men having to stay.

What the quick exodus means more Ukrainians have the means to leave the country than those in some other places; NGOs and other countries have mobilized quickly to facilitate their escape; and the internet have made it simpler to understand the urgency of what's happening, find information about how and where to go, and make leaving a loved one behind (like a husband/father) easier because of the ability to continue to maintain contact; finally, globalization has meant that there are more likely to be connections abroad to go to or to support them. For example, my company and many other multinationals, are actively trying to get employees and their families out, paying for their housing and expenses and even planning to add them to the host country's payroll and benefit plans, where feasible.

This does highlight their added privilege (besides being mostly white) coming from a European country with high education levels.

[meganfernandez]

Had this been posted, Stakhovsky returning to Ukraine to join the military? It’s jarring to see him in fatigues. Such a somber interview.




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[mmmm8]

I think we posted when he said he was going, but not this interview.

I was just reading that nearly 80,000 Ukrainians from abroad, mostly men, returned to Ukraine in the last 5 days.

Edit: other estimates say 100,000

[ponchi101]

I read even one article saying AMERICAN soldiers are going in. Vets from Iraq and Afghanistan.
This war is becoming truly unusual.

[Deuce]

Had this been posted, Stakhovsky returning to Ukraine to join the military? It’s jarring to see him in fatigues. Such a somber interview.

^ That's about as raw and real as it gets.

- gulp -

[skatingfan]

I read even one article saying AMERICAN soldiers are going in. Vets from Iraq and Afghanistan.
This war is becoming truly unusual.

That's actual the norm - thousands of Americans enlisted with the British during the early years of both the 1st & 2nd Worlds Wars.

Canadian solider going to Ukraine.

[mmmm8]

I can understand Stakhovsky leaving his wife and children to fight for his - and their - country but even he said he understands why his wife sees this as a betrayal. I don't understand people going to fight for another country and leaving families behind. If this Canadian dies, his wife and one-year-old won't even get life insurance - he voluntarily joined a war. But then I don't think I'll ever understand the military mindset.

[ponchi101]

I found this in a separate forum. I don't know if all the facts are true, but if so, there is a point here.
---0---
Why Putin want's Ukraine?

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “
It is the second largest country by area in Europe and has a population of over 40 million - more than Poland.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports.
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialized country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrators;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

[Suliso]

I don't know if all of it is true (or even that important) either, but what I do know that they are very important exporter of certain agricultural products (sunflower oil, buckwheat, wheat etc) and some particular industrial products (neon for lasers, for example). Before this war Ukraine served as a cheap industrial country much closer to EU and far less likely steal your trade secrets than China.

Neon in particular comes from Russian steal industry where vast amounts of liquid air is rectified. As a byproduct of that process liq neon (0.0018% of ordinary air) is produced. This is then shipped to Ukraine (Odessa in particular) for a rather complex purification to 99.999% purity as required for electronics industry. The biggest (only?) alternative is in China.

[mmmm8]

I think the shipping capacity is important too. Russia already has access to Crimean ports (and did before taking over Crimea via a previous agreement), but Odessa is another big port city (especially historically, so can be built up further again).

But I think the anti-NATO motivation is still the driver. Based on the Putin "demands," the plan isn't to annex but to create another Belarus.

[ponchi101]

Oh, I don't think that he invaded Ukraine for its resources. It is both Anti-NATO and his desire to revive the USSR. I wrote about it before: he sees himself as the person to bring Russia back to its old glory. The problem is that his concept of GLORY is rooted in 19th century Empire-Building mentality.

[ponchi101]

Some news going around that a Russian commando got trapped inside an elevator when they were trying to reach the rooftop of a building to get into sniper position, but the manager of the building cut the power when they were inside.
I can't say if it is a real story, but an internet search gives multiple hits.

[ti-amie]