Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[ponchi101]

@ponchi: I think you'll agree that this invasion has proceeded with a lot more difficulty than you anticipated.

Not only that. I am very surprised, in a positive way, by the response of several international actors. That Switzerland abandoned its historical neutrality was unexpected (to me). Sweden too, and that together with Finland they are openly talking about joining NATO is also well received. I really felt that the west would not give a rodent's ass about Ukraine, and that the Russian army would efficiently march into Kiyv, very much like they took over Crimea.
So, I was right about Vlad trying to take over Ukraine (my piece I wrote in 2014). But after that, I have not called any single shot of this war right. By now, I don't think Russia keeps Ukraine. It seems the sole accomplishment by Putin will be to have solidly unified the West, completely make NATO a total necessity and an organization that will not dissolve any time soon, and pull Russia out from the international community. Heck, it may even make China reconsider any possible actions against Taiwan, even though China would be way better prepared to withstand economic actions.
I will try to refrain from any further geopolitical analysis again. I will stick solely to tennis.
(Wait. I am not good at that either... )

[Suliso]

I think you'd do better than any of us on South American matters.

Actually I'm surprised too how forcefull the Western reaction has been. In retrospect it makes sense, but only in retrospect...

[mick1303]

I did not write anything, because there were no personal news. I'm in a RELATIVE safety. But the news from Kharkiv are chilling. The devastation continues. I personally know dozens of people who's apartments are destroyed and several of my colleagues and friends were wounded.

[dmforever]

I'm really sorry to hear about your friends in Kharkiv. I honestly can't even imagine what they are going through. I'm glad you are relatively safe, and I hope that you continue to be.

Kevin

[meganfernandez]

I did not write anything, because there were no personal news. I'm in a RELATIVE safety. But the news from Kharkiv are chilling. The devastation continues. I personally know dozens of people who's apartments are destroyed and several of my colleagues and friends were wounded.

Thanks for checking in, Mick. I'm glad you are relatively safe, and I am so sorry for your friends and everything you are all going through. Is there any charity or aid organization you'd prefer people donate to?

[ti-amie]

[ponchi101]

I can simply echo the feelings expressed by others here. I am glad you are relatively safe, Mick.
If you don't mind the question: what is the mood of the Ukrainian people? I know it must be gloom, but do you feel you will defeat Russia, or at a minimum drive them back out of your country?

[mick1303]

I can simply echo the feelings expressed by others here. I am glad you are relatively safe, Mick.
If you don't mind the question: what is the mood of the Ukrainian people? I know it must be gloom, but do you feel you will defeat Russia, or at a minimum drive them back out of your country?

Guys, this is not an easy question to answer. There is a wide variety of opinions. There were plenty of people who DID sympathize Russia, because the policy of Ukraine towards own Russian-speaking citizen was oppressive. But what happened is like trying to heal the headache with a hammer. The issue was used by Russia as an excuse for geopolitical purposes. This is not to say that Ukraine wasn't used by West for decades for similar geopolitical purposes. Many now feel betrayed both by Russia and by the West (EU and USA). Russia violated 1994 treaty, but it was not the only guarantor - US/EU were as well. But they behaved similar to France/Britain in 1938 when they betrayed Czechoslovakia. Regarding whether or not Ukraine will repel Russia purely by military means, IDK. But usually defense does not win conventional wars. The Russian population is conditioned by propaganda to believe that they are “saving Ukraine from the Nazis”. So to hope that this war will stop from internal protests in Russia is naive. Critically thinking people are always in minority.

[mmmm8]

So to hope that this war will stop from internal protests in Russia is naive. Critically thinking people are always in minority.

I don't think people protesting think they will stop the war. I think it's out of a feeling of helplessness and shame. They may hope to contribute to someday bringing Putin down or raise awareness nad dispel propaganda to turn some people against the regime, but I don't think anyone protesting is unrealistic about the war. I would say that's why there are not as many people protesting. The benefit doesn't outweigh the risk for most, unless that feeling of individual responsibility and a desire for martyrdom is overwhelming.

Very glad to hear you are in relative safety. I hope you are also able to procure medications and anything else your father might need for his treatment.

[ti-amie]

Is there any way to verify if any of this is true?

[ti-amie]

I hope this is the correct translation.

[mmmm8]

Is there any way to verify if any of this is true?

The tweet is gone?


The newspaper cover translation above is accurate (Don't think I need to state it, but it's obviously sarcasm)

[ti-amie]

[ti-amie]

[MJ2004]

Russia says the “first phase of war is over”, will now focus on Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

For those who were surprised at the scale of the initial invasion, the plan all along seems to have been:

Test the waters to see how far they could get, try to assassinate Zelensky and install puppet government. And if they fail, they will have distracted the Ukrainian army and spread defense resources throughout the country to make it easier to overtake the Donbas region. Which is what they wanted along.

At the cost of up to 15,000 Russian soldiers, but throwing bodies at the problem has never fazed Russia.