Horse Racing Random

[dryrunguy]

And Flightline has been retired. He will stand at Lane's End. I'll venture to guess that his stud fee will be about $200K LFSN (live foal, stand and nurse).

Retired?!? That is wild. He's only going to be remembered by the horse racing aficionados, which I guess is plenty to make a mint off of in breeding, but just wow.

Gotta be honest. I was suspicious before when @dry posted about him and how few races he competed in. This significantly increases my suspicions.

The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:

4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127

So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.

But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.

::

In other news, Life is Good, who finished second to Flightline yesterday, is also being retired to stud. He'll stand at WinStar with a $100K stud fee. He will also finish his career with 4 Grade 1 victories and 3 Grade 2 victories. Now, if I owned brood mares and money grew on trees, that's a stallion I'd breed mares to.

[dryrunguy]

And then there's this...

[dryrunguy]

And then there's this...

I should have known better than to post a Peter Berry tweet. He's notorious for posting stuff on Twitter and then deleting it.

[JazzNU]

The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:

4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127

So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.

But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.

I'd be considerably more impressed if he won the big name races, and not the undercards. Santa Anita and Belmont Park sound good of course, but he didn't win the Santa Anita Derby or the Belmont States. Most of the big time horses that truly go down as greats, their "big wins" aren't the undercard races, they are *the* race of the entire event.

His Breeder's Cup win appears to be far and away his best win. I looked up a couple of his other wins and I didn't recognize any of the other horse names, whereas I did recognize several in the Breeder's Cup race, horses that have been in Triple Crown races. Seems like it's possible Rich Strike is the only Triple Crown winner he has beaten.

Again, I get that breeding is going to make them a mint, it's probably a sound business decision. But I think it's a decision that cuts him off from any conversation about him being one of the greats that many seemed to think he was trending towards. I don't see how the Breeder's Cup win alone does that.

[JazzNU]

I should have known better than to post a Peter Berry tweet. He's notorious for posting stuff on Twitter and then deleting it.

I saw it in time

[dryrunguy]

The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:

4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127

So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.

But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.

I'd be considerably more impressed if he won the big name races, and not the undercards. Santa Anita and Belmont Park sound good of course, but he didn't win the Santa Anita Derby or the Belmont States. Most of the big time horses that truly go down as greats, their "big wins" aren't the undercard races, they are *the* race of the entire event.

His Breeder's Cup win appears to be far and away his best win. I looked up a couple of his other wins and I didn't recognize any of the other horse names, whereas I did recognize several in the Breeder's Cup race, horses that have been in Triple Crown races. Seems like it's possible Rich Strike is the only Triple Crown winner he has beaten.

Again, I get that breeding is going to make them a mint, it's probably a sound business decision. But I think it's a decision that cuts him off from any conversation about him being one of the greats that many seemed to think he was trending towards. I don't see how the Breeder's Cup win alone does that.

I totally hear you. I would only caution you that there are lots of huge races outside of the Triple Crown races that are restricted to 3-year-olds. I would argue that we put too much emphasis on those three races each year. There are other really important races that occur throughout the year, including races for horses that are older than 3 years. The Breeder's Cup is one of those races. And that's what makes it special.

That said, until yesterday, if you had asked me to identify one really good horse, of any age, that Flightline had defeated, I would have struggled to come up with an answer.

The problems with the "Who has Flightline beaten?" argument are his speed figures. These are mathematical calculations. And his figures are obscenely good. As in, you see these types of numbers just occasionally in a lifetime.

::

I forgot to mention it earlier, and my apologies. Epicenter came out of his surgery this morning just fine. The prognosis is excellent.

[JazzNU]

I totally hear you. I would only caution you that there are lots of huge races outside of the Triple Crown races that are restricted to 3-year-olds. I would argue that we put too much emphasis on those three races each year. There are other really important races that occur throughout the year, including races for horses that are older than 3 years. The Breeder's Cup is one of those races. And that's what makes it special.

That said, until yesterday, if you had asked me to identify one really good horse, of any age, that Flightline had defeated, I would have struggled to come up with an answer.

The problems with the "Who has Flightline beaten?" argument are his speed figures. These are mathematical calculations. And his figures are obscenely good. As in, you see these types of numbers just occasionally in a lifetime.

::

I forgot to mention it earlier, and my apologies. Epicenter came out of his surgery this morning just fine. The prognosis is excellent.

Great news about Epicenter.

There's definitely too much focus on the Triple Crown races, but it's the biggest marketing push the sport has, so it's going to get overemphasized. And without them, this sport becomes much more niche than it already is.

Had Flightline won any of the major prep races for the Kentucky Derby (Santa Anita, Florida, Wood Memorial, etc), then I'd be more impressed with his record paired with the Breeder's Cup win. And that is largely because those are tough fields to get through, they are big races on their own plus have greater importance because of qualification. Given how many horses qualify for the Derby, I'm wondering why he wasn't in the field. This appears to have been the year he was 3.

There is something very crafted about all of the coverage around him. A lot of using paper arguments for how great he is, rather than real racing. I've only been looking for the last few days, but it's been screaming well paid PR campaign to me.

[dryrunguy]

Jazz, this Tweet will also help answer part of your question.

[JazzNU]

Here's a hypothetical for you @dry. Let's say Flightline has this exact same record and raced this little, but was a Bob Baffert horse. How loud would the whispers be that this horse was being injected with something, it just wasn't caught?

Because one reason that comes to mind that you avoid most of the bigger races is that the testing isn't nearly as thorough or well policed. I'm assuming that's what happens in horse racing, it's certainly how it works in most other sports. The higher the level, the more important the event, the greater the "random" testing.

[dryrunguy]

Here's a hypothetical for you @dry. Let's say Flightline has this exact same record and raced this little, but was a Bob Baffert horse. How loud would the whispers be that this horse was being injected with something, it just wasn't caught?

Because one reason that comes to mind that you avoid most of the bigger races is that the testing isn't nearly as thorough or well policed. I'm assuming that's what happens in horse racing, it's certainly how it works in most other sports. The higher the level, the more important the event, the greater the "random" testing.

I'll actually have to do a little research to answer part of your question, Jazz. My understanding is that testing is required for all thoroughbred race WINNERS at every track. I say that because there have been numerous times when I am handicapping a sequence at a particular track, and as I go through the Equibase chart to read up on a horse's recent races, I'll see that a horse that won a race was DQed to last place. And in the chart race comments, at the end, it will include something like: "HAPPY GAL WAS DISQUALIFIED FROM FIRST AND PLACED LAST DUE TO A POSITIVE TEST." And yes, it's always in caps.

So it doesn't matter if the victory occurred at the Breeder's Cup or the Kentucky Derby or a $4000 claiming race at Moutaineer. All winners are tested.

It's important to note that not all positive tests necessarily indicate doping. No doubt, some positive tests genuinely are the result of an innocent veterinary error or accidental exposure to a banned substance that might show up in hay or stall sawdust or something else.

And of course, just because a horse doesn't test positive for a banned substance doesn't prove that the horse isn't being doped. Remember Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro? They were notorious for using various cocktails of unknown contents that wouldn't show up on a drug test because the people who developed the drug tests don't even know these substances exist or that they were being used to enhance performance.

What I don't know is if any other random tests are conducted for other horses in a the same race. I'll have to look into that.

But yes, if Flightline was a Baffert horse, there would be massive whispering. But honestly, I've never seen any hit of that whispering regarding Flightline. And horse racing Twitter is quite well-known for starting unfounded, unsubstantiated, evidenceless rumors just out of spite, resentment, or a lost bet. Not a murmur about Flightline in that regard.

Fun Fact You May Not Have Known: Life is Good started out as a Baffert trainee. When Medina Spirit tested positive after winning the Kentucky Derby, the owners moved Life is Good to Todd Pletcher's barn.

[ti-amie]

[dryrunguy]

Just now saw this, Amie. 39. That's an excellent number. I couldn't read the article because of the paywall, but I was able to read enough to see that he raced under the name Dead Solid Perfect. I found his record on Equibase. Looks like he only raced in Great Britain. He had only 1 win in 16 starts.

But what's most notable here is that this was not a great horse on the track. Yet, somehow, in that day and age, he managed to find a forever home and live out his life with a lot of love and good care. Again, at THAT time, there were no such things as the aftercare programs we see today or the rescue programs, which are largely run by volunteers and financed by generous donors, that find retired thoroughbred horses at stockyards and kill lots, find someone willing to give the horse a home, and find enough donors to buy the horse and ship it to its new home. And of course, the new owners will almost certainly have extensive vet bills to get the horse back in a healthy condition. And then, after that, well, horses are NOT cheap to maintain.

But even today, too few horses benefit from aftercare or rescue programs. And most such programs are U.S. creations. Similar types of programs in Europe and Australia would fall into the category of fledgling programs. I don't think aftercare or rescue programs even exist in Japan or Hong Kong.

This guy was extremely lucky, especially given the time in history--and to some degree, his location. The biggest shout goes to his owner. Talk about a long-time commitment.

::

Do you remember 1982 Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol? I may have told the story already. In any case, after winning the Derby, he managed to get a few more wins and finish well in some Grade 1 or 2 races. He didn't turn out to be much of a stud, though, and he was eventually sold to a breeding operation in Germany where his success as a sire didn't get any better. His previous owners, the people who bred him, feared he was going to end up at a stockyard for certain slaughter. So they bought him privately, returned him to the farm where he had been born, and he lived to be 28. He also was very lucky.

[dryrunguy]

Imperiously and Courageous Cooper have resumed training. They may be ready for races later this month. If all goes well, Imperiously will return to racing first.

We have had trouble finding suitable races for Doc Ballard, and when we find a suitable race, they don't fill (don't get enough entries). This has been going on for over a month.

We finally got one to stick.

It will be Sunday, December 18 at Gulfstream, Race 9 at 4:05 Eastern. It's 7.5 furlongs on the turf--his first turf race. Claiming price will be $25K. It is a field of 12. Doc drew post position 6, so that's a good spot. Luca Panici will ride. (He's one of Gulfstream's best turf riders.) If the race is pulled off turn because of weather, then it will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the synthetic tapeta track. (That might be even better because it would give him another 1/2 furlong and 70 yards to run, which we think he wants.)

It is NOT a strong field. In fact, only one horse in the field has ever run on turf. I look at Doc's pedigree, and I don't see turf. That said, just like Rock Along (who is also back in training for her new owners and trainer), Doc is out of a Rock Hard Ten mare, so his pedigree has some turf potential. And there's nothing about his pedigree that would make the synthetic a downer. He's never raced on either.

At quick glance, I like his chances in this spot A LOT. But I need to study the field more closely. And I need to remind myself that he doesn't break particularly well, will probably start the race near the back of the field, and Luca will have to figure out a trip in a crowded field.

[ponchi101]

Good luck and, as always, keep us posted.

[dryrunguy]

Doc Ballard ran in his sixth race today. He finished a solid 3rd. It rained a lot at Gulfstream yesterday, so all of today's races slated to go on the turf were run on the tepeta, and his race went a mile and 70 yards instead of the 7.5 furlongs it would have been on turf.

I emailed Mary (the head of the partnership) a few days ago and queried if we were hoping for rain so Doc could get more ground on the tapeta. And this is where I have to correct something about my last post. Doc DID run on the tapeta at Gulfstream four starts ago--and it was awful. The worst race he's run so far. I had forgotten that. BUT, that was also the race before he was gelded. So I was pretty optimistic that this might work well for him. Mary was not.

Doc broke from the gate MUCH better today. He was right behind the most forward flight of horses--I think there were two of them. So this was his best break from the gate yet. He just ran a very steady race, sitting second or third for most of the race. He got passed right before the wire, but he also passed a tiring horse late in the stretch. So that got him a third place finish. The purse earnings were $3,080, so that's pretty close to covering a monthly barn bill. (Though he is WAY behind on this front. LOL!)

He just doesn't have any sudden acceleration, especially in the stretch. Some analysts would call him a plodder, and that's probably about right.

He was not claimed (though two horses in the field were claimed--the two favorites). The preliminary Equibase speed figure is 58, making this his best race so far by 1 point.

Here's video of the race. Doc was the #6. Because of the switch to tapeta, there were a bunch of scratches. A field of 12 was reduced to a field of 7.