Horse Racing Random

[dryrunguy]

Doc Ballard races tomorrow at Gulfstream, Race 1. It's a mile and 70 yards on the synthetic, $16K claiming, field of 10. He'll break from the #2 spot. Luca Panici will be riding again. It's a good spot for him, but at quick glance, there might be one or two who look a bit better than Doc. He'll at least be competitive, I think, and hopefully he will surprise.

[JazzNU]

Oaklawn Park ran the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes today. It's a prep race for the Kentucky Derby that awards 20 points to the winner toward getting into the Kentucky Derby. The track was sloppy. A Baffert horse won in only his second start. Last I saw, 16 Baffert trainees are nominated for the KY Derby. Of course, those who actually make it into the Derby will have to find different trainers at some point between now and then. I don't remember the date by which they have to do that. (Baffert is still banned from Churchill.)

Not saying they should end the ban early, but it's clearly not having the affect or embarrassment they thought it would have if owners of elite horses are still choosing him and damn near all of his major 3-year olds are still contention for the Derby and likely to be there regardless of whether he's the official trainer listed.

They need to transfer by February 28th unless he wins his injunction.

[dryrunguy]

Doc Ballard races tomorrow at Gulfstream, Race 1. It's a mile and 70 yards on the synthetic, $16K claiming, field of 10. He'll break from the #2 spot. Luca Panici will be riding again. It's a good spot for him, but at quick glance, there might be one or two who look a bit better than Doc. He'll at least be competitive, I think, and hopefully he will surprise.

Well, other than the break, which was a complete and utter disaster, Doc ran a good race and probably would have won. But he was reluctant to load into the gate (never done that before), insisted on having his head turned in the gate (in spite of the assistant starter's repeat attempts to straighten him out), and lunged at the start, putting him at the back of the field.

That said, he made up ground and was right there at the wire to get up for third and only a neck behind the winner. That's Doc's third straight third-place finish. He earned a $2100 check.

Doc went off as the post-time favorite, which completely mystified me because several of the other horses, including the winner (Gotta Go Gator) were dropping in class. But given the final tote on the odds, you could tell bettors were thoroughly confused by that field.

Here's the race. The winner was the only horse claimed. Doc was the #2 horse.

[dryrunguy]

A few races of note today with Kentucky Derby implications.

The first was the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Cyclone Mischief, #4, trained by Dale Romans, was the favorite. But it turned out to be a Bill Mott exacta. The #3 horse went off at 34/1.

I thought Rocket Can (#8) made a REALLY good account of himself. REALLY good.

[dryrunguy]

And then there was the farce that was the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Four horses running--all four trained by Baffert. The #4, longest shot on the board (12/1), ran an exceptional race. It was just a bit short. All four horses produced a superior speed figure to the 89 produced by Rocket Can at Gulfstream.

Fun facts: American Pharoah has yet to have a serious contender on the KY Derby trail. Justify appears to be following suit so far. (But I'll cut Justify some slack. This is just his first crop of 3-year-olds. American Pharoah has had more time.)

[dryrunguy]

Another fun fact: Both winners in today's Derby preps are sired by Into Mischief. Forgot to mention that before. He keeps churning them out in a big way.

[JazzNU]

Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.

[dryrunguy]

Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.

Yeah, it's a little like watching a match between Tsitsipas and Djokovic.

That said, I can't bring myself to root for Baffert on anything. I want him gone--and not just at Churchill. I want him banned from racing everywhere.

[JazzNU]

Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.

Yeah, it's a little like watching a match between Tsitsipas and Djokovic.

That said, I can't bring myself to root for Baffert on anything. I want him gone--and not just at Churchill. I want him banned from racing everywhere.

I'm not rooting for Baffert either. I don't think this case has any business being handled in Kentucky. And from comments I've seen, Churchill Downs appears to play favorites on matters like this and hasn't been as harsh with punishment as they are with Baffert, so that goes to a larger sense of fairness that I object to and I wonder if it being at the Derby is being judged more harshly (it shouldn't be - which is why this shouldn't be tried in Kentucky). But other than those sort of broader issues I object to in the name of fairness, it's just whatever. Seems like two evildoers going up against one another and I'm just not a fan of either.

[JazzNU]

Also, worth saying again - you put that Breeder's Cup winner as one of Baffert's horses and there's just no way everyone is as enamored with that horse with the "impressive" wins in not crazy competitive races that retires before he is challenged at the most elite levels consistently.

If you add or take away a single thing in a fact pattern, and conclusions change, it should be looked at again. Flightline's trainer has far from a clean history, I checked back when he won. So this is just a name swap, not one trainer with a clean history and one with a checkered past. But barely a peep about Flightline's greatness being a bit suspicious.

I'm going to stay suspicious about that horse.

[dryrunguy]

Also, worth saying again - you put that Breeder's Cup winner as one of Baffert's horses and there's just no way everyone is as enamored with that horse with the "impressive" wins in not crazy competitive races that retires before he is challenged at the most elite levels consistently.

If you add or take away a single thing in a fact pattern, and conclusions change, it should be looked at again. Flightline's trainer has far from a clean history, I checked back when he won. So this is just a name swap, not one trainer with a clean history and one with a checkered past. But barely a peep about Flightline's greatness being a bit suspicious.

I'm going to stay suspicious about that horse.

There are A LOT of folks out there who agree with your assessment of Flightline--and your reasoning. I guess I'm not so bothered by the fact that he only raced 6 times. I'm more bothered by the fact that he, based on that limited number of starts, is almost certainly not sound. And regardless, he gets rushed off to stud to make lots of babies at $200K a pop. Those are the reasons why they didn't risk racing him for another year. Why continue to race a premier stallion candidate when he can bring in $1 million per 5 mares?

And people are paying. As I type, he's getting some of the best mares in the world. And why not? The ad copy writes itself. Extremely well bred. Undefeated (leaving out the bit about only having 6 starts with several months between most of those starts). The only real knock against him is that the stallion market is already so Tapit-saturated. (And Tapit himself is still fetching $185K per mare at the age of 22 when his goods as a stud are supposed to be in decline.)

But yes, if money grew on trees and I owned elite mares, Flightline would not be on my list of preferred stallion candidates for my mares. At least not yet.

So we're both skeptical of him--just for slightly different but almost certainly connected reasons.

[dryrunguy]

Courageous Copper will race tomorrow at Gulfstream. 5.5 furlongs, synthetic, $35K claiming price. He'll be #2 in a field of 7. Edgard Zayas will ride again.

Copper will face other winners for the first time, and he's stepping up significantly in class. At quick glance, his speed figure from his win last time out fit with this group. Several other horses in the field are also dropping in class, with some being eligible for a claim for the first time. If he can repeat his last race, or even improve, he should be highly competitive with this group. If he regresses, which is common after a win, then he's cooked. I'm hoping the light bulb came on during his last race and that he's figured this out. We'll see!

[dryrunguy]

It was a valiant effort from Copper. He broke okay, got the lead shortly after leaving the gate, and kept the lead until about the last furlong. The he got passed and finished 4th (almost 3rd). It was a really good race from a horse that was supposed to regress from his last race. Equibase put his speed figure for this race at 76--the same as his winning effort against much lesser competition in his last race.

He was not claimed, so we get to keep him. It is worth noting that he beat the heavy 4/5 favorite that was claimed by none other than Saffie Joseph. The second place finisher was also claimed.

It will be interesting to see what Mary wants to do with him next. He competed very well at this higher level.

Here's the race.

[dryrunguy]

Baffert, his staff, and his horses are still barred from Churchill Downs--at least for now.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... ium=social

[dryrunguy]

Angel of Empire sprung the upset in today's Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. That earned him 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby. So he has basically qualified for the Derby. But it's a long time between now and the first Saturday of May. Angel of Empire is trained by Brad Cox and was purchased as a yearling for just $70K. He finished 2nd to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on New Year's Day. Victory Formation, the favorite today and also trained by Brad Cox, finished 9th in the Risen Star.

This race was run at 1 1/8 mile--1 furlong short of the Derby distance.