An early look at Wimbledon

[ashkor87]

Main reason I am discounting Saba a bit is she didn't appear to have the 'champion' mentality against Muchova...I thought she had it at the AO but seemed to have lost it again

[ponchi101]

BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev

this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..

Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).
Medevev needs to make the Semis. After that performance against Mannarino, hard to see.
Zverev is currently ranked 23. To make his ranking, he needs to make 3R. That should not be too tough, for somebody that has performed well on gras before (Halle).

Why do you say that Coco's FH will be hard to exploit? She has that extreme grip and needs time to uncork the stroke. A good, low slice to that side should cause her trouble.

[ponchi101]

Main reason I am discounting Saba a bit is she didn't appear to have the 'champion' mentality against Muchova...I thought she had it at the AO but seemed to have lost it again

Wait. ONE MATCH, and we are sending her back again to the "she is mentally fragile" department? She won the Aussie and Madrid, reached finals at Stuttgart and IW, and made the semis at the French, plus she is leading the race by a good 500 points.
Isn't that a bit too much of "What have you done lately for me?"

[ashkor87]

Re Coco, my diagnosis of her forehand problems is different from yours..I think she lets the ball get too close to her..not her grip. The problem shows up when she has to hit the ball a hundred times..which won't happen on grass

[ponchi101]

Our diagnoses of Coco's FH are not mutually exclusive. It could be that her grip it too extreme (but my logic is flawed in that it is not more extreme than Iga's) AND she lets the ball get too close to her.
On grass, the grip makes it hard to play low balls, and there will be more of that surface. That was my part.

[ti-amie]

If Sabalenka makes the Final, heck even the semis, I'll be surprised. It's not that she lost to Muchova it's HOW she lost to Muchova.

[jazzyg]

I'd list Djokovic as having a 75-percent chance to win and the field having a 25-percent chance. I don't see a second favorite at this point, but if Djokovic loses, somebody has to win. If Sinner had kept his form last year from the first two sets, there's a really good chance Djokovic would have lost to him. No one is invincible, even a four-time defending champ.

[jazzyg]

On the issue of Gauff's forehand, I believe her grip is more extreme than Swiatek's. Either way, her athletic ability gives her a chance to do well on grass, but the forehand is an even bigger problem than it is on clay, when she has more time to get set up. I don't take her seriously on any surface but clay, but she might prove me wrong at Wimbledon.

[skatingfan]

I don't see a second favorite at this point, but if Djokovic loses, somebody has to win.

Are you sure? They could just cancel the tournament.

[ashkor87]

Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).

depends on the draw, I suppose...

[ponchi101]

Well, we will have to see where all those 4 British semi finalists of this week will land. Not that they can make any damage long term (not yet) but, as an example, they may be dangerous floaters.

[ashkor87]

BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev

this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..

Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).
Medevev needs to make the Semis. After that performance against Mannarino, hard to see.
Zverev is currently ranked 23. To make his ranking, he needs to make 3R. That should not be too tough, for somebody that has performed well on gras before (Halle).

Why do you say that Coco's FH will be hard to exploit? She has that extreme grip and needs time to uncork the stroke. A good, low slice to that side should cause her trouble.

Pegula is #3 seed..she will have to reach semis to live up to her ranking..Coco will have to reach the QFs I agree..neither looks likely.

[ashkor87]

Am a bit puzzled by Jabeur..is she not recovered from that injury? She seemed well enough at Charleston..
Sinner seems to be injured now..hope it is not serious..he has a nonzero chance of winning the whole thing...most players don't..

[ti-amie]

I don't think Jabeur is over her injury.

[ponchi101]

...

Pegula is #3 seed..she will have to reach semis to live up to her ranking..Coco will have to reach the QFs I agree..neither looks likely.

Pegula has dropped to #5 in the rankings, with none of the top players looking like they will miss the tournament. That is the reason I thought she would need quarters.