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Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:38 pm
by jazzyg
I'm not on the BHM train. I watched her play an entire match for the first time against Halep in the Canadian Open final, and even though it was close, I came away less impressed with her than with Pegula in her loss to Halep the day before.
Maybe it's my bias against positive body language after hearing commentators rip Halep for her negative body language over the years and ignore all the times she has won after the negative display while focusing on the few times she has collapsed (the better tell of trouble is when Halep rushes between points, but now I'm getting off point and hijacking my own post). BHM shows incredibly positive body language like Badosa used to, but it's all fake. I loved when CiCi Bellis saw through it during the third set and said the behavior was all coached and that she clearly was mentally fragile at the moment and Halep should take advantage of it, which she did. BMH hits with a lot of topspin, which gives some opponents problems, but she is not a consistent finisher from the baseline and does not move particularly well. She's very confident right now, but I don't see a potential slam winner in her game.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:40 pm
by Suliso
I think you'll need to be more discerning for WTA than just going by the rankings.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:44 pm
by ponchi101
jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:38 pm
I'm not on the BHM train. I watched her play an entire match for the first time against Halep in the Canadian Open final, and even though it was close, I came away less impressed with her than with Pegula in her loss to Halep the day before.
Maybe it's my bias against positive body language after hearing commentators rip Halep for her negative body language over the years and ignore all the times she has won after the negative display while focusing on the few times she has collapsed (the better tell of trouble is when Halep rushes between points, but now I'm getting off point and hijacking my own post). BHM shows incredibly positive body language like Badosa used to, but it's all fake. I loved when CiCi Bellis saw through it during the third set and said the behavior was all coached and that she clearly was mentally fragile at the moment and Halep should take advantage of it, which she did. BMH hits with a lot of topspin, which gives some opponents problems, but she is not a consistent finisher from the baseline and does not move particularly well.
She's very confident right now, but I don't see a potential slam winner in her game.
Would you agree to TIER 2 contender? "Given a good draw and a bit of luck, she can make it far" sort of reasoning?
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:46 pm
by jazzyg
Keys, on the other hand, I still believe can win a slam. It would not surprise me if she loses in the first round of the U.S. Open and her form has been generally bad for a few years, but the chance she has is SHE HITS THE BALL HARDER THAN ANY FEMALE PLAYER WHO EVER LIVED and harder on average than the majority of the ATP players. When she keeps the dang thing between the lines, she's virtually unbeatable, even though it almost never happens enough for her to beat elite players who are playing well.
I've never been more surprised at a tennis result than her beatdown by Stephens in that US Open final five years ago, although their matchups in the next two years revealed it was the right outcome and I was light years away from sussing out their games correctly. But I still feel like Keys is capable of stringing together seven wins in a row if she can stay healthy. Novotna finally did it at Wimbledon after it looked like her chance had passed. and I have a feeling Keys will eventually do it, too.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:51 pm
by jazzyg
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:44 pm
Would you agree to TIER 2 contender? "Given a good draw and a bit of luck, she can make it far" sort of reasoning?
Yes, because I can come with concrete reasons why almost everyone will not win the US Open, but someone will win in. Maybe she just had a bad day finishing points against Halep and can do it on good days.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:52 pm
by ponchi101
I would love for Maddie to make it, but it is as you say. She simply cannot control her own pace.
She reminds me of Fernando Gonzalez. All the power. Good mover. The FH was a monster. And yet, there would always be a match in which the balls would all land out.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Fri Aug 19, 2022 7:42 pm
by Deuce
jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:38 pm
I'm not on the BHM train. I watched her play an entire match for the first time against Halep in the Canadian Open final, and even though it was close, I came away less impressed with her than with Pegula in her loss to Halep the day before.
Maybe it's my bias against positive body language after hearing commentators rip Halep for her negative body language over the years and ignore all the times she has won after the negative display while focusing on the few times she has collapsed (the better tell of trouble is when Halep rushes between points, but now I'm getting off point and hijacking my own post). BHM shows incredibly positive body language like Badosa used to, but it's all fake. I loved when CiCi Bellis saw through it during the third set and said the behavior was all coached and that she clearly was mentally fragile at the moment and Halep should take advantage of it, which she did. BMH hits with a lot of topspin, which gives some opponents problems, but she is not a consistent finisher from the baseline and does not move particularly well. She's very confident right now, but I don't see a potential slam winner in her game.
^ On the subject of 'coached' positive body language... On a practice court, I once observed none other than Nigel Sears coaching Cirstea on when to 'fist pump' during a match. I found it rather ridiculous.
jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:46 pm
Keys, on the other hand, I still believe can win a slam. It would not surprise me if she loses in the first round of the U.S. Open and her form has been generally bad for a few years, but the chance she has is SHE HITS THE BALL HARDER THAN ANY FEMALE PLAYER WHO EVER LIVED and harder on average than the majority of the ATP players. When she keeps the dang thing between the lines, she's virtually unbeatable, even though it almost never happens enough for her to beat elite players who are playing well.
I've never been more surprised at a tennis result than her beatdown by Stephens in that US Open final five years ago, although their matchups in the next two years revealed it was the right outcome and I was light years away from sussing out their games correctly. But I still feel like Keys is capable of stringing together seven wins in a row if she can stay healthy. Novotna finally did it at Wimbledon after it looked like her chance had passed. and I have a feeling Keys will eventually do it, too.
^ The problem, of course, is that power and control are somewhat mutually exclusive. Despite the fact that every racquet on the market promises everyone "more power and control", it is quite difficult to combine the two. The hardest hitters are often the ones with the least control. And so it's no surprise that Keys (and Gonzo) are/were incredibly inconsistent. Because the more power one hits with, the more difficult it is to control.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:38 am
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:42 am
I would not go that way. She can beat anybody, but several players can beat her too. I don' think she has the serve to remain competitive for several matches.
what I am getting at is - she is reliable, she plays consistently at a certain (high) level - nobody but a good player can beat her, she is not going to lose to a mediocre player.. Halep is like that but at a much higher level, of course..
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm
by AcesAnnie
I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:19 pm
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:38 am
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:42 am
I would not go that way. She can beat anybody, but several players can beat her too. I don' think she has the serve to remain competitive for several matches.
what I am getting at is - she is reliable, she plays consistently at a certain (high) level - nobody but a good player can beat her, she is not going to lose to a mediocre player.. Halep is like that but at a much higher level, of course..
But look at the result yesterday. She lost to Garcia, 1 & 5. And Garcia is almost, by definition, mediocre (the TRUE definition: middle of the road, unexceptional). It was a relatively easy score and I know that Garcia is playing good tennis (Acesannie is talking about including her as a possibility for the USO), but we have known Garcia for years; she is not a force of nature.
Pegula is just another of the 25 players that can win this. Nothing more.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:20 pm
by ponchi101
AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm
I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.
And we have seen her do this before. Three, four weeks of very good tennis, then she is out by 3R at the next slam.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:35 pm
by AcesAnnie
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:20 pm
AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm
I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.
And we have seen her do this before. Three, four weeks of very good tennis, then she is out by 3R at the next slam.
I guess it will be a wait and see game for her.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:31 pm
by ponchi101
And, you see? Here is another problem with trying to figure out the WTA.
Kvitova is in the finals of Cincy. She is a slam champion, she has reached a hard court slam final, she is a very good player, that lately has been fading away. But, just before Wimby, she won Eastbourne only to lose in 1R, and now, again, she is in the final of a big tournament.
But we have been bitten by this dog so many times. As much as I like Petra, she is as unreliable as can be. She can win tomorrow and again, do the disappearing act in NYC, as she has done so many times. Do we go by the short term data set (WON/Finalist Cincy) or do we go by the long term data set (her last good slam appearance came in 2020).
And the same can be said about Maddie. Do you go short term data set (SF at Cincy) or do we go for the long term data set (has not been close to a slam final since her ONLY final in 2017).
It is so difficult to make a proper choice. And, in these cases, I usually go by the long term data set, unless some recent important data trump that one.
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:34 pm
by Suliso
How long is long term? Very long term Kvitova is very good. Not that I'd bet any money on her winning another Slam this late in her career. On the other hand who would I bet on???
Re: An early look at the US Open
Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:47 pm
by meganfernandez
ponchi101 wrote:AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm
I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.
And we have seen her do this before. Three, four weeks of very good tennis, then she is out by 3R at the next slam.
That’s a lot of players, esp WTA. Just the sport.
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