Talk About Tennis 2.0

JazzNU wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:46 am Awesome @dry! And I hope you put something down when it was 21-1.

I had $2 on Cryptic Creed. Paid $45 and change.

When I put my bet in about 2 minutes before the race, he was 35/1.

Shows how much is involved when the winner isn't claimed. Fun to read these synopses

Cryptic Creed has been sold privately for $16000--the same claiming price as the race where he won. The buyer is trainer William Therranos. I know nothing about him. The head of the partnership stated the plan is for Therranos to race him at Gulfstream through the winter, after which he will move to Woodbine outside of Toronto for their spring meet. Woodbine only has synthetic and turf tracks, so the synthetic track should suit Cryptic Creed quite nicely.

Tomorrow, Rock Along and Unconscious will be entered in races on 12/23 at Gulfstream. I'll fill you in with more details once I see cuts of the races and can verify they were entered in the races I THINK they'll be entered in.

Good news, Dry. Hope Cryptic Creed will become very successful.

Just looked at the cut of Unconscious' first race on 12/23. It will be in the opener at Gulfstream on that day's card--5 furlongs on the tapeta (synthetic), field of 8 maidens, she'll break from the 6 spot in the gate, claiming price of $16000. That's probably the right level for her. Unconscious will be one of two first-time starters in the field. There is one second-time starter in the field, and as we all saw with Cryptic Creed, you always have to watch out for a second-time starter, though that horse was even worse on debut than Cryptic Creed was. Of the others in the field, there are three in decent form, but none of those are unbeatable. It looks like a good spot for her. Silvestre Gonzalez will ride. I don't know much about him. He typically rides at Parx outside of Philadelphia. He's been very successful there, and he's 2/8 at Gulfstream this year. He only rides at Gulfstream when there's no racing at Parx.

Rock Along will run later that same day in Race 8. It will also be 5 furlongs on the tapeta (her first race on the surface), claiming price of $35000, field of 9. She'll break from Gate 7. Silvestre Gonzalez will ride her as well. She won't be the lone speed this time--at least I don't think so--and the rest of the speed will be to her inside, which is not a good thing. She could be wide on the turn or even sitting off the pace, which she's never had to do. But she's getting significant class relief, and she might like the tapeta even more than turf or dirt.

In any case, it'll be an interesting day... I've already blocked off those times on my work calendar so no one can schedule me for meetings at post times.

Cryptic Creed will race again today for his new connections--Race 9 at Gulfstream, synthetic, 1 mile and 70 yards, starter optional claiming. Jesus Rios will ride again, and they'll break from the fifth hole in the gate. I don't know if Cryptic Creed will be for sale or not (it would be $16000 again). I'd have to buy the past performances to know that. The total purse of the race is $38000, so that's a higher purse than his last race. Plus, he's facing other winners for the first time. The morning line has Cryptic Creed at 8/1--the longest shot in the race. That's probably about right. But that also suggests the person who made the morning line (Pete Aielo, also the track announcer at Gulfstream) thinks the race is pretty wide open.

You may be thinking, "Why is he running again so soon? Just 10 days after his first win?" The main reason why they new connections would do this is because, based on his last race, they may think the light bulb in on, so they might as well try to capitalize on it. That said, it is very common for a horse to regress after winning a race, so I am not sure what to expect.

I will say this... There is only one horse in the field with early speed, and he's what I would call "cheap speed"... That's when a horse goes as fast as it can for as long as it can--and will hopefully just get too far ahead for the rest to catch him. But if that horse (Wild Irishman) couldn't keep the lead in his last race at 7 furlongs, I don't know why 1 mile and 70 yards would be any better for him. But they'll send him to the front, no doubt, because Emisael Jaramillo is riding. He's the "go to" guy at Gulfstream if you want to get the lead.

On paper, the two favorites, Panorama Truck (3/1) and Venezuelan Triumph (7/2), deserve to be the favorites. They come out of a common race where they finished 4th and 5th, respectively, only a little over a length apart, facing other winners for the first time. Their speed figures in their last race (74 and 72, respectively), which was at this distance, are by far the best in the field. Cryptic Creed only put up a 55 in his win. That's how weak his field was.

But hey, if Cryptic Creed improves again as much as he did between his first and second races, anything is possible--especially since the only speed in the race is cheap speed that will almost certainly fade.

We'll see. Post time is 4:32 EST.

Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.

Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:49 pm Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.

Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.

How many lengths back did Creed finish from Triumph?

JazzNU wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:01 pm

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:49 pm Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.

Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.

How many lengths back did Creed finish from Triumph?

I just checked the chart. According to that, he finished 9 3/4 lengths behind the winner: https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartE ... y=USA&rn=9.

But Cryptic Creed's speed figure improved slightly over his last race--up from 55 to 59. That figure could change. But it indicates he did not regress. In comparison, Venezuelan Triumph's preliminary speed figure came in at 75.

The chart also shows that no one in the race was in for a claim. That's interesting for a group of 2-year-olds at this point in the year.

Video of the race is up.

Only came in second, but Panorama felt like the real winner there. Ran a great race to close the gap beautifully in the last 1/4.

JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:56 am Only came in second, but Panorama felt like the real winner there. Ran a great race to close the gap beautifully in the last 1/4.

Yeah, they flip-flopped compared to their common race--the last race for both of them before today. In that race (https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartE ... y=USA&rn=6), Panorama Truck was more forwardly placed than Venezuelan Triumph, but Venezuelan Triumph closed ground at the end to lose by only 1 1/4 length.

This time, Venezuelan Triumph was more forward, and Panorama Truck gained ground to get up for second, losing by 2 3/4. In fairness, the chart for today's race indicates the 1, 2, and 3 horses all bumped each other at the break, so that could have compromised Panorama Truck's start.

Same jocks on both horses in both races. Those types of things really fascinate me.

Plus, I know you like a closer, so I'm not surprised by your take on it.

Eternal Rest (the 3) was the one that surprised me. He improved significantly since his last race. I'd bet him in his next out if the speed scenarios are right.

Unconscious made a solid debut and finished third--about 5.5 lengths behind the winner. She had the lead until the top of the stretch, at which point she started to tire and got passed on the inside and outside. Not bad for a horse the bettors had at 16/1 at post time.

She was not claimed, but the second and fifth place finishers were. Here's the chart: https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartE ... y=USA&rn=1.

And here's the race. Unconscious is the 6.

It's pretty safe to say that Rock Along doesn't much care for the tapeta. She finished 7th of 9.