by JTContinental Hello and welcome to the 2023 Australian Open Survivor Pool! The rules are the same as always--when you're red, you're dead
Please emjoy this initial first pick information dump while I sort everything out. Unfortunately, I have to disqualify two entries right of the bat (CanuckRaonic and sh79), as their posts came after the start of play.
by JTContinental I count 163 players starting our 2023 season with bright dreams of shiny virtual medals that will soon turn to dark nightmares tarnished with blood. And while all death is the same, not all losing picks were created equally. The Tuesday Morning Quarterback will be here to document them all, and subsequently let you know if your losing pick is STANK or DANK.
Let's see how we did on Day 1--TMQ is sensing danger from the Krejcikova pickers who clearly have no idea who her opponent is
Qinwen Zheng 28 Bernarda Pera 21 Barbora Krejcikova 14 Clara Burel 10 Caty McNally 10 Emma Raducanu 8 Jil Teichmann 8 Kaja Juvan 7 Karolina Muchova 6 Xinyu Wang 6 Camila Osorio 5 Danielle Collins 4 Madison Keys 4 Elena Rybakina 4 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 4 Diana Shnaider 4 Amanda Anisimova 3 Nadia Podoroska 3 Polina Kudermetova 2 Rebecca Marino 2 Jelena Ostapenko 2 Coco Vandeweghe 2 Victoria Azarenka 1 Leolia Jeanjean 1 Anhelina Kalinina 1 Petra Kvitova 1 Maria Sakkari 1 Dayana Yastremska 1
by nelslus ....KEEP Krejcikova's name out of your f***ing mouth.
by JTContinental
nelslus wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 2:57 am
....KEEP Krejcikova's name out of your f***ing mouth.
I probably will for this tournament after this round
by JTContinental Bejlek not quite ready for primetime yet
by ashkor87 Qualifiers are very dangerous people! They have won several rounds, so high on confidence, and have played in these conditions already...
by ashkor87 I am simply astounded at how few upsets we have had on the first day thus far..no rivers of blood! not even a thin trickle, really!
by karlovicfanclub
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:53 am
I am simply astounded at how few upsets we have had on the first day thus far..no rivers of blood! not even a thin trickle, really!
That's because more of the upsets are happening on the men's side, where I was one of 13 foolish people who thought Warwinka would beat a clay-court specialist who entered the match with a career record of 9-17 on hardcourts (no, I'm not bitter!).
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:56 am
Qualifiers are very dangerous people! They have won several rounds, so high on confidence, and have played in these conditions already...
No, they are not
I worked their percentages of win from the USO 2021 through W 2022. It is in the SUICIDE POOL Great Moments topic, starting here.
You have to go down the topic to see the results for four samples, but at best, picking a qualifier (that goes against an unseeded player) is a 50% proposition. They do tend to do worse than that.
Picking a qualifier that goes against a seed is, of course, very risky.
by JTContinental We only had a few drops of blood on day 1, and after dispatching 5 no picks and 1 zombie (already!), we are at 145 players remaining for day 2. We successfully nicked an artery today, because the #2 bandwagon has crashed
The breakdown
Shelby Rogers 37 Kaia Kanepi 25 Donna Vekic 15 Shuai Zhang 15 Irina-Camila Begu 10 Liudmila Samsonova 5 Ekaterina Alexandrova 4 Beatriz Haddad Maia 4 Marketa Vondrousova 4 Linda Fruhvirtova 3 Anett Kontaveit 3 Petra Martic 3 Karolina Pliskova 3 Lauren Davis 2 Magda Linette 2 Tatjana Maria 2 Taylor Townsend 2 Sorana Cirstea 1 Leylah Fernandez 1 Ons Jabeur 1 Claire Liu 1 Alison Riske-Armitraj 1 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1
by JTContinental We lost 5 more today to the dreaded no pick, and I've scuttled one zombie away from the door, leaving us with 114 players. However, half the field is still waiting to see if their first round pick comes through and, in a rare occurrence, TMQ actually hopes you pull through so I don't have to do all the paperwork.
Today's breakdown
Bianca Andreescu 38 Marta Kostyuk 28 Victoria Azarenka 10 Jil Teichmann 9 Elena Rybakina 7 Qinwen Zheng 6 Barbora Krejcikova 5 Petra Kvitova 3 Caty McNally 2 Danielle Collins 1 Madison Keys 1 Jelena Ostapenko 1 Maria Sakkari 1
by JTContinental Should round 1 finish tonight, tune in to see where you went wrong with your losing pick in TMQ's famous analysis: STANK or DANK
Also, a special callout to the Schmiedlova picker yesterday--a truly inspired selection influenced, I'm sure, by my constant insistence that Martina Trevisan can only play competitive tennis at the French Open. Bravo!
by joanjettson
JTContinental wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:39 am
Also, a special callout to the Schmiedlova picker yesterday--a truly inspired selection influenced, I'm sure, by my constant insistence that Martina Trevisan can only play competitive tennis at the French Open. Bravo!
It was me.
by nelslus ....Can I just go ahead and make my Day 8 pick now?
by JTContinental Still 6 first round matches to be played before I can post a Day 4 picks thread
by JTContinental Andreescu ensures that a bunch of you don't have to worry about your first round match anymore
by texasniteowl
JTContinental wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:24 am
Andreescu insures that a bunch of you don't have to worry about your first round match anymore
From high to low. My 2nd day pick, Vekic, finally won in a 3rd set TB after it was suspended at 5-1 in the TB. Yay!
Then Andreescu does whatever.
by JTContinental It does look like all or most of the first round matches are at least on the court.
by JTContinental Two first round matches left to finish
by ashkor87 So I lived and died on the same day..in fact, died first! Andreescu and Vondrousova
Can only happen here!!
by ponchi101 Andreescu just earned herself a spot in the SP Hall of Shame.
Which it seems will be a bit more than what she will do with her career.
It was a "good pick". I was saving her, assuming she could fight with Iga. My ignorance saved me.
by ptmcmahon Like always, it's better to be way wrong than slightly wrong.
by atlpam
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:53 pm
So I lived and died on the same day..in fact, died first! Andreescu and Vondrousova
Can only happen here!!
Also bitten by Andreescu with Shuai Zhang winning after I was knocked out.
by nelslus OK, I AM putting this out there....
Today, tennis-fan-wise, I'd like us Alexandrova takers to lose. I'd love for Townsend to win this match.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:53 pm
So I lived and died on the same day..in fact, died first! Andreescu and Vondrousova
Can only happen here!!
Also bitten by Andreescu with Shuai Zhang winning after I was knocked out.
Yup, Andreescu got me too....ugh. The same way, after Zhang won her match. Damn....
by ponchi101
nelslus wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:01 pm
OK, I AM putting this out there....
Today, tennis-fan-wise, I'd like us Alexandrova takers to lose. I'd love for Townsend to win this match.
I'm am going to put this in a MACRO and next time you tell us NOT to dare put Petra's name in our mouth, it will spit this quote. Leave this man's body, you evil entity, leave!!!!!!
(Says another Alexandrova picker. You, you)
(Oh, the mandatory )
by JTContinental
nelslus wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:01 pm
OK, I AM putting this out there....
Today, tennis-fan-wise, I'd like us Alexandrova takers to lose. I'd love for Townsend to win this match.
I've picked Alexandrova, but would be delighted to lose in this instance.
by JTContinental Y'all are making this easy for me--after yesterday's multi-round carnage and 3 no picks, we are at a measly 51 players left on Day 4. Andreescu will move on to the TAT recordbooks, and we will move on to the breakdown:
by ptmcmahon I'm getting too far out of the loop of tennis... the biggest bandwagon is a player I've never heard of
by JTContinental
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:33 am
I'm getting too far out of the loop of tennis... the biggest bandwagon is a player I've never heard of
I'm in the loop of women's tennis and know of Fruhvirtova's hype, but have yet to see her play. I can't imagine that more than 20% of the remaining pool members have either, so I'm assuming most are picking on reputation.
by ashkor87 I have a very high opinion of Alexandrova..have already called her out as a potential champion..and I love Taylor's style, so enjoying this match...
by JTContinental Welcome to the Round 1 edition of TMQ's world-renowned ighthearted roast of your losing choices, STANK or DANK! Our first 64 women have said goodbye, several of them taking you with them. Let's see who, how many, and how much STANK you put on your pick !
Kaia Kanepi (25 victims)STANK In round 1, most of you chose to say goodbye-a with Kaia! Kanepi is at the tail end of a career that has been filled with random wins and losses in grand slams. She also seems to only play well as the underdog--maybe she feels the nerves of being expected to win?
Beatriz Haddad Maia (4 victims) A light DANK for this tournament, but Haddad Maia's form from last year is unsustainable in comparison to her talent level. TMQ will grade more harshly in future 2023 grand slams.
Amanda Anisimova (3 victims)DANK Anisimova has done well here in the past and should have gotten by this round pretty easily, but she instead seems to be cruising into head case territory.
Polina Kudermetova (2 victims)STANK TMQ can only assume you didn't know there were two of them. If you did, pretend you didn't.
Tatjana Maria (2 victims)STANK Maria has only won two matches here over the previous two decades, the most recent being in 2016.
Rebecca Marino (2 victims)STANK This was never going to happen--Marino only wins matches here once every 10 years. Also, Zhu is a way better player than she is.
Coco Vandeweghe (2 victims)STANK At the US Open, I dubbed Vandeweghe as the old, tepid, skin-on-the-top Coco, and while she has improved, she's still a bit crusty.
Sorana Cirstea (1 victim)DANK Probably a 50-50 toss up for the winner here, so TMQ won't ding you too badly, especially since Cirstea has the pedigree over Yulia "Rumplestiltskin" Putintseva.
Leolia Jeanjean (1 victim)STANK Umm...no. The STANKiest pick of round 1, Jeanjean was at least a lucky loser, while you are just an unlucky one.
Alison Riske-Armitraj (1 victim)STANK How do you tell your coach that you need to fire him when you are also married to him?
by JTContinental
JTContinental wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:25 am
Welcome to the Round 1 edition of TMQ's world-renowned ighthearted roast of your losing choices, STANK or DANK! Our first 64 women have said goodbye, several of them taking you with them. Let's see who, how many, and how much STANK you put on your pick !
Alison Riske-Armitraj (1 victim)STANK How do you tell your coach that you need to fire him when you are also married to him?
Looking on Wikpedia she maybe already did! I don't see him listed as part of her coaching staff or maybe he's unofficial? I've seen him come out at scream at her on court during changeovers at least once.
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:33 am
I'm getting too far out of the loop of tennis... the biggest bandwagon is a player I've never heard of
I'm in the loop of women's tennis and know of Fruhvirtova's hype, but have yet to see her play. I can't imagine that more than 20% of the remaining pool members have either, so I'm assuming most are picking on reputation.
I've watched a few of her matches in 2021 and 2022 and that's why I avoided picking her. She was coming along, but not there yet when I last saw her. I haven't watched her yet in 2023, she may be starting to look more the part. I've been much more impressed with Noskova as the more ready now player (despite her losing in Qualifying).
by JazzNU
JTContinental wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 1:25 am Kaia Kanepi (25 victims)STANK In round 1, most of you chose to say goodbye-a with Kaia! Kanepi is at the tail end of a career that has been filled with random wins and losses in grand slams. She also seems to only play well as the underdog--maybe she feels the nerves of being expected to win?
Also played an Aussie who was once one of their more promising juniors before injury and the pandemic seemed to slow her down greatly. She took out a major Vekic bandwagon a few years ago. People were majorly pissed at Donna. If she's on your do not pick list, it might be because of the player Kaia just lost to (Kim Birrell).
by CyborgShoes And today’s bandwagon (which I’m on) is playing Ms Birrell as well. Eeeee! Fingers crossed.
by jazzyg As I recall, Birrell won 1 or 2 games in her next match. Still pissed at Vekic, who was on the verge of tears for the last 30 minutes of that match.
But no one is on my no-pick list. It would keep me from winning. ... checks history ... which I've never done with the WTA.
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 12:33 am
I'm getting too far out of the loop of tennis... the biggest bandwagon is a player I've never heard of
I'm in the loop of women's tennis and know of Fruhvirtova's hype, but have yet to see her play. I can't imagine that more than 20% of the remaining pool members have either, so I'm assuming most are picking on reputation.
I've watched a few of her matches in 2021 and 2022 and that's why I avoided picking her. She was coming along, but not there yet when I last saw her. I haven't watched her yet in 2023, she may be starting to look more the part. I've been much more impressed with Noskova as the more ready now player (despite her losing in Qualifying).
have seen her at Chennai - she hits hard on every flank but has no subtlety or variety.. totally predictable, which she needs to grow out of, if she is to progress at the senior level..
by nelslus BTW- I feel SUPER!!!!!!!!!! confident with many of us picking Ostapenko today- with her horrendous singles record this year, AND her even already losing in doubles at the Aussie- the one discipline where she appears to still have confidence. Hopefully- at least for today (and/or if I wisely decide to change my pick)- Baindl will NOT turn out to be a fine girl.
by JazzNU
nelslus wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:28 pm
BTW- I feel SUPER!!!!!!!!!! confident with many of us picking Ostapenko today- with her horrendous singles record this year, AND her even already losing in doubles at the Aussie- the one discipline where she appears to still have confidence. Hopefully- at least for today (and/or if I wisely decide to change my pick)- Baindl will NOT turn out to be a fine girl.
Baindl aka Kozlova. I have a new deep dislike for changing your name and leaving no record of your former last name so people know who the heck you are and it's solely based on Tennis Fantasy in some form or another.
by JTContinental We are down to 39 players for Day 5, and the bandwagon most of us have chosen to climb on is 0-3 lifetime against her opponent, the most recent being Ostapenko's disastrous title defense attempt at the French Open.
The breakdown
Jelena Ostapenko 16 Maria Sakkari 10 Barbora Krejcikova 8 Coco Gauff 3 Jessica Pegula 2
by nelslus
JTContinental wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:19 amWe are down to 39 players for Day 5, and the bandwagon most of us have chosen to climb on is 0-3 lifetime against her opponent, the most recent being Ostapenko's disastrous title defense attempt at the French Open.
LOL, for once, I didn't look up the Head to Head record. Yup- we are doomed!
by JTContinental The round 2 edition of STANK or DANK is upon us! Aside from one magnificent STANK explosion, I don't have much material to knock you with on your mostly sound bad choices.
Bianca Andreescu (38 victims)STANK Did TMQ offend? I can't think of any other reason half the remaining pool would just race off the end of a cliff like a horror scene from a lemming documentary. "ANDREESCU. IS. NOT. IT." he said emphatically, with periods in between each word.
Irina-Camila Begu (9 victims)DANK A pretty safe bet that Begu could knock off a slumping Laura Siegemund, but she struggled mightily in the first round against a lucky loser, so I would have bypassed this route.
Jil Teichmann mild STANK, as Teichmann is living off 2021 results, and is not long for the world of grand slam seedings
Qinwen Zheng (6 victims)DANK A perplexing and unceremonious loss, especially since Zheng rolled through her first round opponent. I guess Pera still has some residual gas left over from her winning streak last year.
Petra Kvitova (3 victims)DANK I would also call this loss perplexing, except that it's Kvitova, so instead seems perfectly reasonable.
Veronika Kudermetova (2 victims)DANK Hmmm...I guess it didn't matter whether or not you knew there were 2 Kudermetovas in the draw after all
Caty McNally (2 victims)STANK I think Baindl threw us all for a loop with her name change. People would have avoided this pick had they known McNally was facing a tour veteran and not some completely unheard of rando.
by ponchi101
JTContinental wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:11 am
Bianca Andreescu (38 victims) STANK Did TMQ offend? I can't think of any other reason half the remaining pool would just race off the end of a cliff like a horror scene from a lemming documentary. "ANDREESCU. IS. NOT. IT." he said emphatically, with periods in between each word.
by ptmcmahon Good thing we are ignoring head to head
by ponchi101 I just could not pick Alona. Just did not have the cojones.
But you guys that picked her are in a very good position now.
by nelslus
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 6:47 am
I just could not pick Alona. Just did not have the cojones.
But you guys that picked her are in a very good position now.
Well, that was MUCH!!!!!! simpler than, clearly, I had expected. SHEESH!! I was just hoping that Alona wouldn't be as crappy as her opponent- and, she exceeded my lofty expectations. Now, hopefully, Ostapenko or Krejcikova won't decide to go on some crazy rampage to win a second singles Slam title. (Hopefully, as I am expecting, Coco and Jessica will take care of them next round.)
by joanjettson Alona rsrs
by ponchi101 I am fast cornering myself. All my picks are still alive, including Krejcikova, who looked really solid against Kalinina.
It would be the first time I run out of picks. And I will take that
by ptmcmahon That may make it easier to pick... less choices means less debating which of these players to save ...especially today not a lot I really want to save necessarily.
by texasniteowl
JTContinental wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:11 amBianca Andreescu (38 victims)STANK Did TMQ offend? I can't think of any other reason half the remaining pool would just race off the end of a cliff like a horror scene from a lemming documentary. "ANDREESCU. IS. NOT. IT." he said emphatically, with periods in between each word.
but...but...she beat Bouzkova 2 & 4 in the first round so surely Bianca could beat the #100 ranked unheard of Bucsa!
Now...would I have chosen BA any later in the tournament. No.
by JTContinental TMQ is currently in hell aka at the vet with all four of his dogs, so the count will be a little later than usual
by JTContinental And we're back to our regularly scheduled program. After 1 no pick and one I had to sadly disallow as it came after the start of play, we are at a slim 27. If you make it past today, you will advance to TAT's version of Shangri La, the Updated Picks & Results Thread, where the drinks are stiffer, but the death is still the same.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:40 am
Hope the dogs are okay. Or were you the one that needed a vet?
How, explain to me how, can I not ban you ?!
(That cracked me up )
I am a big supporter of preventive medicine. Maybe JT was ready for his monthly flea and tick biscuit? I don't judge people.
by JazzNU Just turned on Vondrousova's match and she's about to fold big time. She's in pain and has lost like 12 of the last 15 points. Not sure if it's a new injury, she's re-injured something or what. But I think maybe also cramping.
by mmmm8
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:02 pm
I am fast cornering myself. All my picks are still alive, including Krejcikova, who looked really solid against Kalinina.
It would be the first time I run out of picks. And I will take that
An easy 100% effective solution to this that I can recommend based on personal experience is to carefully make your next selection from your remaining players then not submit it, then realize that's the case 30 minutes after start of play. No Pick is always the best way to ensure your player never loses!
by G2gaynor
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:22 am
And we're back to our regularly scheduled program. After 1 no pick and one I had to sadly disallow as it came after the start of play, we are at a slim 27. If you make it past today, you will advance to TAT's version of Shangri La, the Updated Picks & Results Thread, where the drinks are stiffer, but the death is still the same.
aren't there 4 Bencic pickers, so 28 people left? I counted 28 that are not "red" in the initial posts with everyone's picks. i think you forgot to include cdavid's bencic pick, no?
by ponchi101 And....
I cornered myself. After deciding two days ago NOT to pick Alona because we all know how risky that is, Maddie was not able to beat Vika and now, I MUST PICK OSTAPENKO.
See you all at the Back of Bourke Lounge. Tonight
by jazzyg I think there is a real possibility you will emerge as the sole winner after tonight.
by ponchi101 Oh, yes, I know. I do have a possibility. Around 1%.
Just not the kind of chances I like
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:22 am
And we're back to our regularly scheduled program. After 1 no pick and one I had to sadly disallow as it came after the start of play, we are at a slim 27. If you make it past today, you will advance to TAT's version of Shangri La, the Updated Picks & Results Thread, where the drinks are stiffer, but the death is still the same.
aren't there 4 Bencic pickers, so 28 people left? I counted 28 that are not "red" in the initial posts with everyone's picks. i think you forgot to include cdavid's bencic pick, no?
You are correct. TMQ regrets the error.
by G2gaynor It's ok, it will likely be for nothing once Vika and Coco both lose tonight lol
by JTContinental OUT: This thread ^^ full of dead people
you)
