Talk About Tennis 2.0

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 3:26 pm Brady and Caro are on their way back. A 2R showing will be enough.
The players I listed are highly ranked players that are not playing well at all at the moment. Garcia, for example, just dropped 1000 points (or is it 900) by losing her first match at Cincy. So she has a ton of points to defend.
Matteo is a top player, as are Felix and Rublev. They should not be losing that early, that frequently. Ergo, my statement.
Krejcikova has been very silent, and I don't think even her claims to be, at this moment, any Big number. So, I would say that anything she does is gravy.

Oh, ok. I was looking at it more from the POV of who needs more match practice - a good player who is not hitting their stride yet in this leg of the season.

nelslus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 1:27 am

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:52 pm

JTContinental wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:14 pm Opelka has withdrawn on the men’s side

Shuai Zhang has withdrawn in the women’s side

Sad about Shuai Zhang. I hope she is okay. Wonder why she isn't playing doubles? She and Stosur were #1 in the world, I think.

She's had some good moments in doubles this year. She and Dolehide made the SF's at Wimbledon- at which point they lost 1 & 1 to Mertens and Sanders. Zhang also won a tournament in Abu Dhabi with Stefani, and the SF's with Olmos at Qatar. Other than that, she's also had plenty of bad doubled losses, in addition to a pretty bad year in singles.

If I recall this correctly, Stosur had previously encouraged Zhang to not quit tennis, during another bad patch she'd been having- and, I believe, before her and Stosur had such great results. So, she's been down before- and who knows what's going on with her currently- physically, mentally, medically, etc.? Worst case scenario- I hope she can be very proud of her career and the great results she has had. $9,971,239 earned in her career. Two doubles Slam titles (and in doubles, a Wimbledon final with Mertens, and some other Slam SF and QF doubles results), and QF results in singles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. (She's also 34, BTW.)

Thanks for this. She has had a great career. I just hope it doesn't end like this.

I don't put much stock in Rublev losing early at both 1000s. He's still a threat at the U.S. Open.

The others I agree with.

Christopher Clarey
@christophclarey
·
11s
Too many late nights in #tennis

But no change to the #usopen schedule this year

This from tournament director Stacey Allaster:

Also announced on Wednesday, nine Americans received wild cards into the US Open qualifying draw: Liv Hovde, Katrina Scott, Makenna Jones, McCartney Kessler, Mary Stoiana, Valerie Glozman, Fiona Crawley, Chloe Beck and Katherine Hui.

Cary McNally and RBA are out

Probabilities of win:
Men
Djokovic 40%
Alcaraz 40%
Sinner 10
Medvedev 8
Field 2

Women

Rybakina 30%
Swiatek 30
Sabalenka 15
Jabeur 10
Muchova 10
Field 5

Your estimates?

Rybakina's shoulder is in a bad way - I don't think she'll be a factor in New York.

You are giving THE FIELD more of a chance than Coco?
And the field at 5% is way too low.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 1:02 am Probabilities of win:
Men
Djokovic 40%
Alcaraz 40%
Sinner 10
Medvedev 8
Field 2

Women

Rybakina 30%
Swiatek 30
Sabalenka 15
Jabeur 10
Muchova 10
Field 5

Your estimates?

MEN
Djokovic 49%
Alcaraz 48%
Field 3%

WOMEN
Iga 40%
Coco 35%
Field 15%
Sabalenka 6%
Pegula 4%

So no Sinner and no Rybakina? Of course 'field' covers them all but I think Rybakina has a better chance than Sabalenka for sure..and Coco at 35 is a bit too high..she hasn't quite completed her moulting yet...maybe next year at the AO..

I've been too busy to watch enough this summer to put percentages on it, but I believe Djokovic is a bigger favorite than the earlier estimates based on what I've seen from Cincinnati. Of course after tomorrow I might change my mind.

I have no idea about the women because none of them are playing great. Gauff has been better than anyone this summer, but I do not see her as the favorite. Sabalenka is moving worse than she did in the first few months of the year. Swiatek is making too many errors on routine balls. Pegula, as much as I like her game, never will be close to being the favorite at any slam she plays. Jabeur got hurt in Cincinnati and clearly has closing problems in finals even when she is healthy. As was mentioned above, Rybakina is not healthy. I'll try to catch Muchova tomorrow to see her level, but i question her ability to stay healthy for seven matches on hard courts at a slam.

Those are the names I could see winning it, but there are probably a dozen other players who could do it if Swiatek and Sabalenka go out early, which is not inconceivable. I really have no feel for what will happen.

All valid points...

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:23 am You are giving THE FIELD more of a chance than Coco?

I dont think Coco's transformation is complete yet.. next year maybe..
as for the field, I would say 0% but there are literalists here who think there is no such thing.. so I said 5%.. Field includes Coco for me.