2024 Wimbledon Surivior Pool: ATP Picks and Results

[joanjettson]

@weefunk
One of my personal rules is, Never trust a K.
Kai Kanepi, Madison Keys, Khach, Kyrgios, Karen Knopp and a khost of others get kudos for that

[dave g]

Day 6 Pick Summary
Includes the Day 5 results of Nakashima losing


Start 55
No Pick 3
Left 52

Fritz 13
Rune 13
Musetti 10
De Minaur 6
Fils 6
Meptshi Perricard 1
Norrie 1
Ruusuvouri 1
Zverev 1

Start 52
Survivors 50
Dead 2
Unknown 0

Some of the results from Day 5 have not been incorporated with these results yet.

Only 2 dead is an amazing result. Congratulation players.

[hoangers]

Hi,

picked Paul on day 5, not Shelton as indicated in the main list. Thanks!

hoangers Zhang Norrie Humbert Musetti SHELTON Rune

[dave g]

Hi,

picked Paul on day 5, not Shelton as indicated in the main list. Thanks!

hoangers Zhang Norrie Humbert Musetti SHELTON Rune

Fixed. Thanks for letting me know.

p.s. To everyone else, if you find an error, let me know. I almos always have enough of a paper trail to track down the correction.

[jatagen]

Hi, I picked Dimitrov on Day 5, not Nakashima, so I should be still alive. (I picked Musetti for Day 6, so I’m still alive headingi to Day 7.) Please fix - thanks!

[meganfernandez]

Week 1 Awards

Bob Ross Memorial Happy Accident Award: Griekspoor, Day 1. Solid pick because he was going to lose to Sinner in R3 but merrily for you he lost even sooner! SPs are easy!

Disaster Narrowly Averted Award: Hurkacz. He went out in the most bizarre way, going down with a mysterious injury yet still trying to hobble through another point before retiring on match point. Miraculously, none of you people who try to out-smart the draw by picking a top seed too early were victims of Hubi’s misfortune.

Could Have Been Much Worse Award: Draper only took out 6 people. It’s easy to imagine dozens picking him against Norrie, thinking he’d lose in the next round to Zverev, as nature intended.

Overachiever Award: Atlpam, Gernblandston, Grancordero, Lukeorion, McBride10s, Philly10 - Days 1-4 picks gone. Going into Week 2 with no baggage. Well done. Sorry for just cursing you.

Overthinking Award: De Minaur, Day 4. You had two more rounds to use him. But you avoided the Khachanov bandwagon.

Twilight Zone Award: Bautista Agut, Day 5. Did you ever imagine RBA would rise from the dead and you’d be picking him in the third round of Wimbledon in 2024?

Taylor Fritz Fan Club Award: Sluggo-13. You and only you took Zverev on Day 6, telegraphing him to lose to Fritz in the fourth round, so the job is yours. You're no longer allowed into France.

Face-Palm Award: Khachanov, Day 2: One of you nailed it, taking him the round before his bandwagon crashed. AND THEN YOU NO-PICKED!!! I won't say who. Too embarrassing.

Can’t Win Award: Rublev, Day 2. You thought you were being ultra safe, picking a Top 10 seed in the first round. Please don't hurt yourself.

It’s the Hope That Kills You Award: Ruud, Day 3 - he said he was feeling better on grass! Swore it right there at the ESPN altar! I guess he meant pot. I was one of the 15 dopes he left high and dry. Were you sure he'd be OK once he came back from 2-5 in the third and stole that set, only to go down meekly in the fourth?

Cursed by Association Award: Korda, Day 1. He was finally poised to make a run, coming in with some form and health and ADF in the first round. Then he wound up playing lucky loser Giovanni Mpteshi Perricard, who is going to be the first LL to win The Championships. Korda can't catch a break! Or break serve!

Cry for Help Award: Tiafoe, Day 1 or 2. He bailed you out, but just no reason to bet on him winning a match.

New Strategy Award: Tcard, for picking Moro Canas on Day 1. He played wildcard Jacob Fearnley, so I assume your strategy was to coin-flip the match on the line right above Novak all the way to the end of the SP. It didn't work out, but it wasn't a bad idea. About as good as any of my supposedly reasoned picks.

Wishful Thinking Award: Eubanks, Day 1. Broadcasting booth for him, Loser’s Lounge booth for you.

Lucky Dog Award: Slamdog for picking Machac on Day 1. Survived in a miraculous escape when Goffin blew a 5-0 lead in the fifth (only to get cheeked by Ruud two days later).

Nine Lives Award: Shelton, Days 1, 2 and 3. He survived in five sets each time across six days. He may well take a cat nap during the Sinner match Sunday.

Biden Should Stay In Award: Wawrinka, Day 1. Dude is 39 and it’s best of five. Sure, he played a wild card, but you have too much faith in the elderly.

Rodney Dangerfield Award: Halys and Comesana both made the third round without being picked by anyone.

Wellness Check Award: Those who sweated through Bublik, Thompson, MIchelson and Bergs on Day 1, Seyboth Wild on Day 2, Paul and Shapovalov on Day 3, Tabilo and Musetti on Day 4, Rune on Day 6. Did I miss any too-close-for-comfort matches? (Tiafoe, Day 1, but you shouldn’t complain. And no one had to white-knuckle it through Dimitrov on Day 4.)

Lots of you made disciplined, high-percentage early-round picks - a Fils here, a Popyrin there, Tommy Paul absolutely everywhere. Congratulations to those still alive. Now the real SP begins.

[dave g]

When I copied the Day 5 picks, I got them off one line for the peoples whose names start with F-N. I think I have that fixed. But if your name starts with any of the letters from F to N, please double check to make sure I have your pick correct.

[hoangers]

Week 1 Awards

Bob Ross Memorial Happy Accident Award: Griekspoor, Day 1. Solid pick because he was going to lose to Sinner in R3 but merrily for you he lost even sooner! SPs are easy!

Disaster Narrowly Averted Award: Hurkacz. He went out in the most bizarre way, going down with a mysterious injury yet still trying to hobble through another point before retiring on match point. Miraculously, none of you people who try to out-smart the draw by picking a top seed too early were victims of Hubi’s misfortune.

Could Have Been Much Worse Award: Draper only took out 6 people. It’s easy to imagine dozens picking him against Norrie, thinking he’d lose in the next round to Zverev, as nature intended.

Overachiever Award: Atlpam, Gernblandston, Grancordero, Lukeorion, McBride10s, Philly10 - Days 1-4 picks gone. Going into Week 2 with no baggage. Well done. Sorry for just cursing you.

Overthinking Award: De Minaur, Day 4. You had two more rounds to use him. But you avoided the Khachanov bandwagon.

Twilight Zone Award: Bautista Agut, Day 5. Did you ever imagine RBA would rise from the dead and you’d be picking him in the third round of Wimbledon in 2024?

Taylor Fritz Fan Club Award: Sluggo-13. You and only you took Zverev on Day 6, telegraphing him to lose to Fritz in the fourth round, so the job is yours. You're no longer allowed into France.

Face-Palm Award: Khachanov, Day 2: One of you nailed it, taking him the round before his bandwagon crashed. AND THEN YOU NO-PICKED!!! I won't say who. Too embarrassing.

Can’t Win Award: Rublev, Day 2. You thought you were being ultra safe, picking a Top 10 seed in the first round. Please don't hurt yourself.

It’s the Hope That Kills You Award: Ruud, Day 3 - he said he was feeling better on grass! Swore it right there at the ESPN altar! I guess he meant pot. I was one of the 15 dopes he left high and dry. Were you sure he'd be OK once he came back from 2-5 in the third and stole that set, only to go down meekly in the fourth?

Cursed by Association Award: Korda, Day 1. He was finally poised to make a run, coming in with some form and health and ADF in the first round. Then he wound up playing lucky loser Giovanni Mpteshi Perricard, who is going to be the first LL to win The Championships. Korda can't catch a break! Or break serve!

Cry for Help Award: Tiafoe, Day 1 or 2. He bailed you out, but just no reason to bet on him winning a match.

New Strategy Award: Tcard, for picking Moro Canas on Day 1. He played wildcard Jacob Fearnley, so I assume your strategy was to coin-flip the match on the line right above Novak all the way to the end of the SP. It didn't work out, but it wasn't a bad idea. About as good as any of my supposedly reasoned picks.

Wishful Thinking Award: Eubanks, Day 1. Broadcasting booth for him, Loser’s Lounge booth for you.

Lucky Dog Award: Slamdog for picking Machac on Day 1. Survived in a miraculous escape when Goffin blew a 5-0 lead in the fifth (only to get cheeked by Ruud two days later).

Nine Lives Award: Shelton, Days 1, 2 and 3. He survived in five sets each time across six days. He may well take a cat nap during the Sinner match Sunday.

Biden Should Stay In Award: Wawrinka, Day 1. Dude is 39 and it’s best of five. Sure, he played a wild card, but you have too much faith in the elderly.

Rodney Dangerfield Award: Halys and Comesana both made the third round without being picked by anyone.

Wellness Check Award: Those who sweated through Bublik, Thompson, MIchelson and Bergs on Day 1, Seyboth Wild on Day 2, Paul and Shapovalov on Day 3, Tabilo and Musetti on Day 4, Rune on Day 6. Did I miss any too-close-for-comfort matches? (Tiafoe, Day 1, but you shouldn’t complain. And no one had to white-knuckle it through Dimitrov on Day 4.)

Lots of you made disciplined, high-percentage early-round picks - a Fils here, a Popyrin there, Tommy Paul absolutely everywhere. Congratulations to those still alive. Now the real SP begins.

Thanks for writing this! So much work went into it and I thoroughly enjoyed reading it!

[meganfernandez]

When I copied the Day 5 picks, I got them off one line for the peoples whose names start with F-N. I think I have that fixed. But if your name starts with any of the letters from F to N, please double check to make sure I have your pick correct.

FYI, I noticed one last night while picking through them to write the Awards. So if yours is already fixed, that’s why.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[meganfernandez]

@weefunk
One of my personal rules is, Never trust a K.
Kai Kanepi, Madison Keys, Khach, Kyrgios, Karen Knopp and a khost of others get kudos for that

Khost!

Kerber ruined your SPs in 2016, huh?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dave g]

Day 7 Pick Summary

Start 49
No Picks 0

Paul 28
Medvedev 14
Dimitrov 4
Alcaraz 3

Start 49
Survivors 45
Dead 4
UnKnown 0

[meganfernandez]

Day 7 Pick Summary

Start 49
No Picks 0

Paul 28
Medvedev 14
Dimitrov 4
Alcaraz 3

Start 49
Survivors 0
Dead 0
UnKnown 49

Of the three Alcaraz pickers:

• One had Medvedev and Paul available

• One had Paul available

• One had already taken Paul, Dimitrov and Medvedev. I guess that person is hoping Paul and Medvedev massacre the pool, leaving only 6 competitors on Day 8. This person needs RBA or Shelton to reach the final to beat the draw

[ashkor87]

One thing I have learned, the hard way, is that it is not necessary to beat the draw...things are so chaotic ...

[ponchi101]

Exactly. You don't have to outrun the bear, you only have to outrun the other people.

[ptmcmahon]

It can be tricky too though... for the SPs that don't end too quickly if you try a shortcut to outrun the others sometimes (ie picking some high ranked players early) you may find the other are still running and you're out of breath and the bear gets you.

Especially since sometimes the shortcut doesn't work anyway - ie your safe pick loses to spite you

It's very hard to predict what is the best way most times. Keeps the contest compelling each time.