by
ti-amie Colette Lewis
@zootennis.bsky.social
Current standings in the USTA's Australian Open Wild Card race:
by
ti-amie Colette Lewis
@zootennis.bsky.social
· 35m
Latest standings in USTA's Australian Open Wild Card Race, with this the last week for women; men have two weeks remaining
by ashkor87 now that the 2025 season is done, and there is nothing really happening till the AO..
I certainly think Rybakina is the most likely to win it - on the men's side, it is a dead-heat between the big 2, let us hope both are fit.. I would expect Sinner to win, but who knows..
those who will do well:
Men; FAA, Fritz, Mensik
Women: Rybakina, Sabalenka, Gauff, (could win the title) - Pegula will do well, too, and also Paolini, but wont contend for the title.. the wild card I am looking forward to seeing is Mboko.. she could do anythng and everything.. look forward to Osaka coming back..
the ones who will disappoint ( at least according to rankings) are Anisimova and Keys.. Keys doesnt appear to be back to health and form, and the court will be too fast for AA - she takes a bit longer to get in position and swing at the ball..Swiatek is an enigma, never does well there but who knows?
by ponchi101 You are going by recency bias.
I would love for Elena to win it. Make me shut my mouth about her being a one slam wonder.
But the last three months from her are the anomaly, not the rule. Remember she fluctuates wildly.
And your standards are sometimes too high. Swiatek has reached the semis twice. She has not won it, of course, but that does not mean "never does well".
And nobody saw her winning Wimby and then...
So, I say she is good for the semis again.
by ashkor87 It is not unheard of for the yec champion to win the AO..momentum..Rybakina seems to have found her mojo, I think she will win
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 08, 2025 1:15 am
now that the 2025 season is done, and there is nothing really happening till the AO..
I certainly think Rybakina is the most likely to win it - on the men's side, it is a dead-heat between the big 2, let us hope both are fit.. I would expect Sinner to win, but who knows..
those who will do well:
Men; FAA, Fritz, Mensik
Women: Rybakina, Sabalenka, Gauff, (could win the title) - Pegula will do well, too, and also Paolini, but wont contend for the title.. the wild card I am looking forward to seeing is Mboko.. she could do anythng and everything.. look forward to Osaka coming back..
the ones who will disappoint ( at least according to rankings) are Anisimova and Keys.. Keys doesnt appear to be back to health and form, and the court will be too fast for AA - she takes a bit longer to get in position and swing at the ball..Swiatek is an enigma, never does well there but who knows?
last year, Rybakina beat Sabalenka 3 and 0 in the Brisbane final, then lost in the second round of the Aussie to Blinkova in a 42-point third-set tiebreak. Rybakina is inconsistent. She can win. But she is more susceptible to an upset than the other top players.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 08, 2025 1:15 am
now that the 2025 season is done, and there is nothing really happening till the AO..
I certainly think Rybakina is the most likely to win it - on the men's side, it is a dead-heat between the big 2, let us hope both are fit.. I would expect Sinner to win, but who knows..
those who will do well:
Men; FAA, Fritz, Mensik
Women: Rybakina, Sabalenka, Gauff, (could win the title) - Pegula will do well, too, and also Paolini, but wont contend for the title.. the wild card I am looking forward to seeing is Mboko.. she could do anythng and everything.. look forward to Osaka coming back..
the ones who will disappoint ( at least according to rankings) are Anisimova and Keys.. Keys doesnt appear to be back to health and form, and the court will be too fast for AA - she takes a bit longer to get in position and swing at the ball..Swiatek is an enigma, never does well there but who knows?
Reading this again. And this is a serious question.
You think that the court is going to be so fast that the USO RU, the previous slam, will have problems there? I mean, Amanda is good for a QF showing, at least.
by ashkor87 I don't think AA can win the whole thing, certainly QF, SF can happen..her slowness to set up will only matter against the top players
by
ashkor87 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 08, 2025 7:43 pm
then lost in the second round of the Aussie to Blinkova in a 42-po
did you see that match? it was clear Ryba was injured.. this year, she is in a good place mentally, should win now.
by
ashkor87 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 09, 2025 2:19 am
I don't think AA can win the whole thing, certainly QF, SF can happen..her slowness to set up will only matter against the top players
as usual, the things I talk about, are very marginal, make a only 5% difference - which is what makes them interesting to me.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 08, 2025 3:00 pm
I say she is good for the semis again.
would even her mother be satisfied with that?! that is what I mean by 'not do well'
by
ponchi101 It's just that your way of saying it is too extreme for me. Making the semis at any slam is an excellent result.
To me.
by
ashkor87
but is it to her?
by ashkor87 Agassi once said..you dont win silver you lose gold..i imagine all the top players think like that- which is why they are top players..
by Suliso Yes, but the list of such players is very short indeed. Probably no more than five of each gender.
by ponchi101 Ayrton Senna said: coming in second is being the first of the losers.
Yes. Steffi would shut herself down for days after losing a slam final. We know those stories. But I wonder, and especially in this era in which we acknowledge mental health and related issues, how healthy is that. If making the semis of a slam is something that makes you feel like a loser, I really wonder how well adjusted you are.
Chris Lewis is more accomplished than 99.99% of all players. So is Martin Verkerk and Albert Porta. And if Iga really would feel that reaching the semis of the Aussie is "not doing well", then that shrink of hers sucks.
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Dec 13, 2025 6:18 pm
Yes, but the list of such players is very short indeed. Probably no more than five of each gender.
yes, we were talking of folks like Iga and Anisimova.. they are in that list, I imagine
by ashkor87 Rewatched Mboko beating Rybakina in Canada..severely exploited Ryba's slow movement..on the fast AO courts, Mboko and Coco are the ones who can beat Rybakina and Anisimova, with defense and movement .Paolini can, too.. I don't expect the big guns - Saba and Iga, to be able to do it . It all depends on the draw.
by ti-amie Sorry for the typo showing 1/12 instead of 1/18
by ashkor87 I love the AO timings, starts early morning and goes on all day..just ideal.USO is the worst ..have to be up at 2 am usually..and stay up all night
by JTContinental Lois Boisson has withdrawn
by
ti-amie JTContinental wrote: ↑Tue Jan 13, 2026 5:32 am
Lois Boisson has withdrawn
by
ti-amie The Tennis Letter
@thetennisletter.bsky.social
· 7m
Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open draw ceremony.
2024 & 2025 champion.
by ti-amie If anyone is watching the draw ceremony live wth is taking so long? Did it start late or something?
by ti-amie Both ATP & WTA MD singles draws are out and can be found in their respective threads.
by ashkor87 Any early intelligence on how conditions are this year? I am hearing it is less hot..good for all..balls? Court speed?
by
Jennede ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 17, 2026 1:07 am
Any early intelligence on how conditions are this year? I am hearing it is less hot..good for all..balls? Court speed?
I can't answer your question as I am going for the first time on Monday night. But it is bound to rain at some stage, maybe second week. We are in drought in Melbourne, the gardens are brown and I can't remember when it rained last.
by ashkor87 Pegula is reported to have said the Rod Laver Arena court is playing slower than the outside courts.. could be because the outside courts are more exposed to sun...
by Jeff from TX I love Venus, but please, enough with the wildcards, other than maybe at Wimbledon. She can play qualies - needs the match play.
by ponchi101 She can hit the ball. But, really. Your legs are what go first. And by 46, she simply can't stay on the court with any of the younger ones.
But she had a decent score. Far better than I expected.
by Suliso One set is what she can manage these days before running out of steam.
by jazzyg She was up 4-0 in the third set, so it sure seems like she played 2.5 sets before running out of steam.
by ashkor87 I would expect the women's semis to be
Pegula vs Rybakina
Gauff vs Sabalenka
Gauff and Rybakina have a 55% chance each and Gauff has a 70% chance against Ryba if they should get there...Gauff is playing well her forehand problems arent fixed but she is dealing with it by launching deeper
.would be fodder for a good volleyer but the only one left now is Pegula
by ponchi101 You just jinxed Elena vs Iga...
by Suliso I think Sabalenka will win the title.
by
ponchi101 So do I. But you know my fondness for Elena, and how much I suffer when she loses.
She is the only WTA player that I get really involved in her matches. So, I would love for her to beat Iga.
And Ashkor just ruined it!
by Suliso If I could just choose a womens final it would be Svitolina vs Anisimova. I expect Sabalenka vs Rybakina.
by ponchi101 I say Sabalenka - Swiatek.
Would like Anisimova - Rybakina.
by jazzyg I expect Sabalenka-Rybakina as well.
Would like it to be Svitolina-Pegula.
by JTContinental I'm going to say Sabalenka over Anisimova in the final--they have looked the best to me here
by ponchi101 If Novak losses the final, he will join Roger as the two male players to have a career slam and a career slam runner up.
by ashkor87 The Kovackova sisters win the junior doubles..after the Williams sisters, not many sisters play together..Kudermetova, Pliskova, Andreeva..wonder why...are they too similar? Sibling rivalry?
PS -they also won the USO 25
