Talk About Tennis 2.0

JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun May 22, 2022 5:02 pm

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 4:32 pm I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!)

What is the deal with Secret Oath? Why is everyone so in love with this horse? I feel like I'm missing something.

Secret Oath is trained by 86-year-old D. Wayne Lukas and was coming off an impressive win in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby. She's run against the boys twice now, and neither of those races were good.

But yes, the story there is that D. Wayne Lukas used to be a major force in Triple Crown races. Then he stopped getting good horses to train. And now, at the ripe young age of 86, he's finally getting good horses again after a fairly length draught.

The fascination with Secret Oath stemmed from the broad-based respect for Lukas and his contribution to the sport over the past several decades. He's called "The Coach" because he has played such a key role in mentoring at least two generations of excellent trainers. Which is why so many are thrilled to see him having such tremendous success after falling off the radar, a few health scares, etc.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 2:52 am

JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun May 22, 2022 5:02 pm

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 4:32 pm I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!)

What is the deal with Secret Oath? Why is everyone so in love with this horse? I feel like I'm missing something.

Secret Oath is trained by 86-year-old D. Wayne Lukas and was coming off an impressive win in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby. She's run against the boys twice now, and neither of those races were good.

But yes, the story there is that D. Wayne Lukas used to be a major force in Triple Crown races. Then he stopped getting good horses to train. And now, at the ripe young age of 86, he's finally getting good horses again after a fairly length draught.

The fascination with Secret Oath stemmed from the broad-based respect for Lukas and his contribution to the sport over the past several decades. He's called "The Coach" because he has played such a key role in mentoring at least two generations of excellent trainers. Which is why so many are thrilled to see him having such tremendous success after falling off the radar, a few health scares, etc.

Interesting. I know Wayne Lukas, but I'm a little surprised that it comes down to that. The excitement I was hearing about Secret Oath in the pre-race coverage, I thought maybe they thought this was a super special horse, but maybe there was extra excitement because it's a filly. But it doesn't really sound like the horse is Rachel Alexandra 2.0.

There was another aspect to Secret Oath that I should have mentioned. I mentioned her win in the Kentucky Oaks. What I didn't mention was just how impressive that field was. Going into that weekend, many people felt that Oaks was actually a more compelling race than the Derby (in part because so many people assumed Epicenter had the Derby pretty well wrapped up). The field in the Oaks was... pretty incredible. Kathleen O was in it, Nest was in it, Echo Zulu was in it... It really was a toss-up race going into it.

But Secret Oath slammed down the hammer in that race. She made the other horses look like chumps. And no one was expecting THAT.

::

BTW, Nest, who is trained by Pletcher and finished second to Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks, is being pointed to the Belmont.

JazzNU wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 9:29 pm
My mom's rule for this (don't you just love the education I got at home ). You ALWAYS put the at least the minimum down on the longshot, sometimes the two longest shots. You'll be out $2 or $4 but will walk away with $100+ if it hits.

This made me laugh out loud, as did the "CVS receipt" text.

I was that person. I was perusing the odds , liked the longshot because at the time it was 99-1 and started to make a wager. Kid walked in the room and thoroughly distracted me - never got back to it.

WAYYYYY back in the day my late mother would treat us all to a day at the track. I would never play win, always place or show. I never made any money but it was a fun day and I got to see those beautiful animals up close.

Unified Dreams will make his second start Saturday at Churchill. It's a race at 1 1/16 miles. Tough field, but that's a difficult distance for first-time starters. The advantage goes to horses with at least a race under their belts. Lots of big money horses in the field. Reylu Guttierez will ride. He'll break from the #5 spot.

Doc Ballard will make his debut at Churchill on Sunday. He'll break from the #4 spot with Corey Lanerie aboard. It's a 5 1/2-furlong race. That's probably too short for him, but it's a good spot for him to debut, and the field doesn't look particularly strong at quick glance.

Imperiously has resumed training and did well in her last work. She was the fastest of three yesterday at 4 furlongs. We're looking for a second race for her in early June. Stay tuned.

Courageous Copper still needs time to recover from being gelded. That takes about a month. He made his debut on 4/22.

That should bring you up to date. This weekend should be exciting.

So, Unified Dreams makes his second career start today in Race 8 at Churchill, and he's stretching out to 8.5 furlongs, which we THINK he'll like. And the weather should be nice. Wish I could be there.

I just took a quick look at the field and... Good grief! I'm having trouble getting past some of the purchase prices on these horses! $100K, $270K, $225K, $144K, $620K, $300K... That doesn't mean anything, but still... For comparison, Unified Dreams was a $50K purchase as a 2-year-old.

Anyway, wishing a safe trip for all.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Anyway, wishing a safe trip for all.

Amen. I am forever traumatized by Eight Belles.

So, I was super proud of the way Unified Dreams competed today against a really tough field. He vied for the lead early on but had to check and take back a little. Then he had to check again because he wanted to go but had nowhere to go to get by the leaders. Those two checks took their toll, and he faded--but not too badly. He finished 7th of 9 but 11+ lengths ahead of the closest horse behind him.

Look at it this way. You're running in the Olympics, and two different times during your race, you have to stop your momentum because there are other runners in your way. It's just incredibly difficult to overcome such a bad trip.

He competes hard. And I LOVE to see that. It will serve him well in the future. But Churchill fields may be a bit too tough for him. We'll see how everyone in the partnership reacts.

So, I'm a day behind.

Doc Ballard made his debut yesterday in a $58 race at Churchill, 5.5 furlongs on dirt. It was a tale of two groups of horses. All 2-year-olds, of course. Three had experience, and three were first-time starters. And that was all she wrote. The three horses with experience finished first, second, and third. The three first-time starters finished fourth, fifth (Doc Ballard), and sixth. After breaking poorly, the Doc was just 3/4 of a length from finishing fourth. The horse that finished fourth was the post-time favorite.

I think we're right that the Doc really wants more ground. But we'll have to wait until tracks start writing longer races for 2-year-olds, and that could be a while. But first, he's gotta learn how to get out of the gate more quickly and put himself in better position earlier in the race.

Just one other thing I noticed in the paddock before the race. Doc Ballard was a bit more keyed up than I like to see. And when Corey Lanerie got on board, the Doc reared up pretty badly. He eventually settled, and once he got on the track, all was well in the post parade--at least from what I saw. He also behaved perfectly in the gate in spite of being the second horse to load and having to wait on less well-behaved horses that didn't want to load.

So, it was a little disappointing overall, but Doc Ballard had a far better starting point in his career than either Imperiously or Courageous Copper.

I'll take it! I haven't been able to play Moutaineer for a few weeks. So this was a nice return. My bankroll keeps building when I stick to the objective: 1) Win the sequence; 2) Make a profit. In that order. These two rules are serving me well. If I don't feel like I can meet both rules, I don't play it. Even if it means I wasted time looking at a sequence. Too much emphasis is placed on the big score. Above all else, make a profit. It sounds silly to verbalize that, but too many folks put too much emphasis on the big score--and forget to make a profit.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:16 am I'll take it! I haven't been able to play Moutaineer for a few weeks. So this was a nice return. My bankroll keeps building when I stick to the objective: 1) Win the sequence; 2) Make a profit. In that order. These two rules are serving me well. If I don't feel like I can meet both rules, I don't play it. Even if it means I wasted time looking at a sequence. Too much emphasis is placed on the big score. Above all else, make a profit. It sounds silly to verbalize that, but too many folks put too much emphasis on the big score--and forget to make a profit.

This is the way to do it at the casino too. Don't worry about getting a handpay, you work on building your bankroll so when you leave, you're up from where you started. Several medium wins does you almost as well as one big win.

The Belmont Stakes is today at 6:44 p.m. Eastern. Here's the field. I'll be rooting for Rich Strike.

Here's the race.

Forgive me - "win the sequence " - what does that mean?