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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:55 pm
by Suliso
Lyman has definitely been liberated. Let's see now how much further Ukrainians could advance. I'd expect a major push towards Kremenna and Svatove.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:11 pm
by ponchi101
So, it seems clear that Russia can't win this war, ON THE GROUND. Their soldiers do not want to fight, their wart technology is no good, and they can't win from the air.
Plus, the country's economy will be ruined.
What is Putin's end game? I say by now, he is himself in jeopardy. he can't remain ruler of Russia, and escalating this war to the point of large bombings turns Russia into a pariah state for decades. But he is cornered.
Can the West offer him a way out?
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:38 pm
by Suliso
What really is "killing" Russians in this war is the unbelievably high corruption in their army. I was just reading that 1.5 million winter uniforms which were supposed to be in storage only exist on paper... Hardly the only such case.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:19 pm
by Owendonovan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 3:11 pm
So, it seems clear that Russia can't win this war, ON THE GROUND. Their soldiers do not want to fight, their wart technology is no good, and they can't win from the air.
Plus, the country's economy will be ruined.
What is Putin's end game? I say by now, he is himself in jeopardy. he can't remain ruler of Russia, and escalating this war to the point of large bombings turns Russia into a pariah state for decades. But he is cornered.
Can the West offer him a way out?
Are the people who took care of Nicolae Ceaușescu and his lovely wife, Elena, still around? They might have an out for him.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 6:25 pm
by ponchi101
I agree that would be swell, but I just don't know if they are available.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:04 pm
by Suliso
About 10 years ago unoficial estimate was that 60% of Russian defence budget was stolen outright. I doubt it has improved much.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:47 pm
by ti-amie
Alexander S. Vindman follows this account so I guess this is a legit source.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:00 pm
by ponchi101
Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:04 pm
About 10 years ago unoficial estimate was that 60% of Russian defence budget was stolen outright. I doubt it has improved much.
So the circularity is this: Putin ´promotes a kleptocracy where he is the leader of all the stealing, and when he goes to war, he finds out his cronies have stolen all the money to have a proper army to go to war.
It actually has a very nice symmetry to it.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:14 am
by Suliso
Exactly. And the things it's not only generals who steal. It goes all the way down to a lowly lieutenant and anyone at all connected to logistics. One only needs to steal appropriately for one's rank.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:50 am
by Suliso
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:34 pm
by Suliso
The map above seems to be outdated already. I'd say Russian forces west of the river are doomed.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:37 pm
by ponchi101
Reports of thousands of Russian troops surrendering and accepting Ukraine's conditions are also easy to find on the web.
Putting aside the issues about war and everything else: this is embarrassing for Russia.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:08 am
by Owendonovan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 9:00 pm
Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:04 pm
About 10 years ago unoficial estimate was that 60% of Russian defence budget was stolen outright. I doubt it has improved much.
So the circularity is this: Putin ´promotes a kleptocracy where he is the leader of all the stealing, and when he goes to war, he finds out his cronies have stolen all the money to have a proper army to go to war.
It actually has a very nice symmetry to it.
It does, it always has, and it will happen again.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2022 12:27 pm
by Suliso
Ukrainians have managed to blow up a bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.
Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2022 4:00 pm
by ponchi101
The cost of this war, in terms of infrastructure, will be huge for Ukraine.
Can the world force Russia for reparations? As it seems they will certainly lose.