Tennis Random, Random (On Court)

[ashkor87]

Ostapenko will do well too, on the slow courts of IW

[ponchi101]

Not a perfect experiment, but in order to make it more reliable, one tournament is not enough. We would need at least 10-15 predictions per player.
Too much effort because, as you say, for one tournament anything can happen. For example, a Cirstea doing a crazy one and beating a top player, only to lose to the 150 ranked player in the next round.

[ti-amie]

[ti-amie]

[ashkor87]

Who would you consider the best volleyer today? Small sample, but it is still a beautiful and effective stroke..
I would say Alcaraz and Leylah...

[ti-amie]

Who would you consider the best volleyer today? Small sample, but it is still a beautiful and effective stroke..
I would say Alcaraz and Leylah...

[ashkor87]

Not a perfect experiment, but in order to make it more reliable, one tournament is not enough. We would need at least 10-15 predictions per player.
Too much effort because, as you say, for one tournament anything can happen. For example, a Cirstea doing a crazy one and beating a top player, only to lose to the 150 ranked player in the next round.

true..
let us agree in advance what court is slow and what is fast? I propose:
Slow: IW and Miami
the entire clay season except Madrid (altitude makes it more like a fast court)
Washington DC

Fast:
Australian, Shanghai,Paris (indoor), Turin, Dubai
all the rest are in-between (and geting slower!)

[ashkor87]

We could also treat clay separately..it has its own unique features...

[ashkor87]

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/wh ... -slam-hump

once I got over my initial reaction -'who cares?' and 'is it written in the sky that Americans have to win majors?' - I think the ones with nonzero chance of making it are Shelton and Michelsen.. the others simply arent talented enough...!

[meganfernandez]

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/wh ... -slam-hump

once I got over my initial reaction -'who cares?' and 'is it written in the sky that Americans have to win majors?' - I think the ones with nonzero chance of making it are Shelton and Michelsen.. the others simply arent talented enough...!

I loved this story. Thanks for sharing. I always thought Korda had the best chance, but I'm starting to lose faith. Shelton is next. Paul ought to be but yeah, maybe lacking a weapon. I don't think Fritz will do it. I don't know enough about Michelsen, but right now he's a lot of hype. Too soon to tell.

Not written in the sky, but it's a fair question for a country that produces so many contenders - and has produced so many Slam champs. What other country has as many contenders right now? Russia, I guess. This is partly due to the population size.

They could have done this story with a different basket of players - like the Russians or the players who have reached a semi or final, but not won - but Americans is a crisp angle with a lot to say about it. I'd like to see them repeat the angle with Russians, women, and some other baskets/categories of players.

[Suliso]

Someone should write about Czechs. They really overperform given the modest population (10.5 million) and wealth of the country. Again they have some of the top teenage players on both tours.

[meganfernandez]

Someone should write about Czechs. They really overperform given the modest population (10.5 million) and wealth of the country. Again they have some of the top teenage players on both tours.

I actually said Czechs originally and deleted it because I wasn't sure they have a lot of top male contenders right now. Lehecka and Machac? More on the women's size for sure. Agree with your wider point. And they dominated Fed Cup for a long time.

[Suliso]

Someone should write about Czechs. They really overperform given the modest population (10.5 million) and wealth of the country. Again they have some of the top teenage players on both tours.

I actually said Czechs originally and deleted it because I wasn't sure they have a lot of top male contenders right now. Lehecka and Machac? More on the women's size for sure. Agree with your wider point. And they dominated Fed Cup for a long time.

Maybe Lehecka (22, #23) and Machac (23, #62) as well (not really seen them play much), but I'd be particularly positive about Jakub Mensik. Only 18 years old and already with ATP level final and in the top 100.

Traditionally they have indeed been stronger on the women's side. Much less competition there so less luck needed.

[Suliso]

There are also some outliers on the other end. Countries which are neither too poor nor too small, but have produced no one at all. In Europe Ireland and Portugal are in this category.

[ti-amie]