An early look at Wimbledon

[ashkor87]

Presumably Muchova, Jabeur etc are in field?

[ponchi101]

Presumably Muchova, Jabeur etc are in field?

Yes. I believe that Jabeur has not recovered, and since we have seen nothing on grass from Muchova, I am not sure.
Mind you, I believe her game can translate very well to grass. But, no data, so I don't know.

[ashkor87]

Jabeur seems to be back, at least, playing .at Eastbourne..

[ponchi101]

One guy that did well last year, and now seems like, at best, a 3R loss: Fritz. Three tournaments played, zero wins.
Could be a good pick for 1R. Depending on opponent.

[Suliso]

Don't do it. He could surprise you with a R1 loss or QF's.

[ponchi101]

Remember me? The guy who picked Gracheva to beat Sloane at RG?
I do do those sort of things...

[Owendonovan]

Apparently her brother is getting married around now, so presumably she is otherwise engaged..after the French, she said she is playing Berlin and Eastbourne..she did play berlin

The only true love happening in the tennis world right now is Stefanos and Paula.

[jazzyg]

Actually, Fritz got one win. It was against another player (Karatsev) on my Green Acres team. Karatsev had a set point in the opening set and the commentators predicted he could go deep at Wimbledon with the right draw. It turns out he fared by far the worst against Fritz of anyone in the three tournaments.

[ashkor87]

Swiatek is looking formidable on grass...time to update my estimates-
Women-
Rybakina 30%
Swiatek 25%
Kvitova 10%
Muchova 10%
Ostapenko 10%
Sabalenka 5%
Jabeur 5%

Field 5%

Men
Djokovic 60%
Alcaraz 39%
Field 1%

Sinner may not be a factor...

[ponchi101]

Rybakina. She has not played that much, because she has had a virus. Who knows what she has but, if this thing is still lingering since RG, why assume she will get better before next Monday?
Swiatek. I know you are passionate about your positions but: Iga lost a set to Maria, and just beat Clay Court Specialist Teichmann. "Formidable" is quite a statement
Jabeur. Just lost to Giorgi 3&2. And you still give her a better chance than, for example, Kvitova?
Muchova. No data at all. She will go into Wimby with no matches on grass. Tall order for somebody not named Williams, Graf or Navratilova.
Sabalenka. Ok, we agree.

[ashkor87]

Updated again to reduce Jabeur and bring in Ostapenko..you are right about Kvitova, need to consider her..
though jabeur losing to Giorgi could happen to anyone...she is a force of nature, no insurance available against her!

It is only because of Rybakina's illness that so many people have a chance ..I have never given 7 players a nonzero chance!

I am watching how comfortable Swiatek is looking..and remember she is a W junior champion! And her coach has worked with Radwanska ..

[ashkor87]

Re Swiatek and her game not being suited to grass, technically Nadal should never have won Wimbledon either - though he won 'only' twice!

[skatingfan]

Re Swiatek and her game not being suited to grass, technically Nadal should never have won Wimbledon either - though he won 'only' twice!

Nadal, particularly early in his career, really prioritized winning Wimbledon, and playing well on grass. How many times was he playing Queens just days after he'd won the French Open? Whether Swiatek wants to work on her game & push that hard to win Wimbledon remains to be seen.

[ashkor87]

possibly, Nadal was motivated by the presence of Federer.. I wonder if Rybakina is enough to motivate Swiatek.. probably not!?

[ashkor87]

As for Rybakina I don't think she's "2 straight Wimbledon titles" good. 20% chance of that happening maybe? Sabalenka is the true favorite.

I think priors matter..given that Rybakina has one, versus if she had none, makes a difference. I have reduced my bet on her ONLY because of the viral .
Sabalenka isn't really that good on grass, I think .movement .