by ponchi101 Rod Laver Arena
Twilight session - From 9:00pm MST
Women's Doubles • Final
b. krejcikova 1/k. siniakova 1
Vs
a. danilina / b. haddad maia
Twilight session - Not before 1:30am MST
Men's Singles • Final
r. nadal 6
Vs
d. medvedev 2
by Liamvalid Medvedev in 3. I feel he will win a tight first set, then Rafa will start missing by putting too much on his shots and overthinking things. Maybe 7-5 6-3 6-2. Nadals level hasn’t been 100% and it’s his will to win that has gotten him this far, but he can’t expect any let offs from Medvedev like he got against Shapo
by ponchi101 Only chance I see for Rafa is for the crowd to really get behind him and help him with energy. It might affect Medvedev but, he has shown in the past that he can feed from that too.
Still, the Aussies would like for #21 to be set at home. And Rafa has had bad luck at the Aussie in the past (the Wawrinka/back injury final) so maybe there might be some poetic justice in the end.
Although I doubt it.
by mick1303 I already made my prediction and will stick to it. There is a reason that nobody since 1967 won his second slam immediately after the first. It is just too hard. Something will get in a way: injury, unexpectedly high quality of Nadal's game, audience, etc.
by
Deuce Liamvalid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:10 pm
Medvedev in 3. I feel he will win a tight first set, then
Rafa will start missing by putting too much on his shots and overthinking things. Maybe 7-5 6-3 6-2. Nadals level hasn’t been 100% and it’s his will to win that has gotten him this far, but he can’t expect any let offs from Medvedev like he got against Shapo
Of all the things that might happen, I would put Nadal overthinking things - or showing mental weakness in any other area - at the very, very bottom of the list.
Very likely not even
on the list of things that might happen...
by
ponchi101 mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:13 pm
I already made my prediction and will stick to it. There is a reason that nobody since 1967 won his second slam immediately after the first. It is just too hard. Something will get in a way: injury, unexpectedly high quality of Nadal's game, audience, etc.
Hard to go against stats like that, but... these are different times. No one had ever won a slam coming from the qualies. And last year, Emma happened.
Needless to say, I hope you will be 100% right.
by ashkor87 I would make it 55 to 45 Medvedev..he should win but Nadal is Nadal ..
by ashkor87 There is a lot of superstition around stats..there was a stat that nobody had EVER won Queens and then Wimbledon..that jinx stood for almost a hundred years..till McEnroe and then Becker showed it was just a superstition..
So I tend to disregard all these jinxes (what IS the plural of jinx?!)
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 1:54 am
There is a lot of superstition around stats..there was a stat that nobody had EVER won Queens and then Wimbledon..that jinx stood for almost a hundred years..till McEnroe and then Becker showed it was just a superstition..
So I tend to disregard all these jinxes (what IS the plural of jinx?!)
Jinxes. The spell checker did not get you
Unless there is a physical reason why something cannot happen, it is just weird coincidences.
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:30 pm
Only chance I see for Rafa is for the crowd to really get behind him and help him with energy. It might affect Medvedev but, he has shown in the past that he can feed from that too.
Still, the Aussies would like for #21 to be set at home. And Rafa has had bad luck at the Aussie in the past (the Wawrinka/back injury final) so maybe there might be some poetic justice in the end.
Although I doubt it.
How about Nadal exploiting Medvedev's position like Tstitsipas did so well for a while? I don't know why more people don't serve and volley against him with a really wide serve, or look to come in on the next ball. Tsitsipas made it look easy at times. He's a good volleyer, so that helps, but so is Nadal.
by
ponchi101 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 2:32 am
...
How about Nadal exploiting Medvedev's position like Tstitsipas did so well for a while? I don't know why more people don't serve and volley against him with a really wide serve, or look to come in on the next ball. Tsitsipas made it look easy at times. He's a good volleyer, so that helps, but so is Nadal.
I know that us oldies like to romanticize our faves from the past, but I remember one match between Muster and Sampras at the Aussie. Muster, at the time, was one of the players that would stand way back when receiving serve. Sampras served slice after slice to Muster's backhand (on the deuce side) and volleyed the few returns Muster could get back into a completely open court.
Of course, that was Sampras. But if Nadal does not serve at least 50% of all his serves in the ad-court out wide, I gather I know nothing about this sport.
by ashkor87 I am looking forward to the women's doubles..can relate to them much better than to the men, we club players can play like them..the men play a game 'with which I am not familiar' as Palmer said of Nicklaus, (I think)
by ashkor87 Correction..Bobby Jones said this, it seems..I know nothing of golf anyway but I like the subtle understatement
by ashkor87 Siniakova is a veritable wall!
by ashkor87 Heat is getting to the Czechs again...they are visibly wilting..they should train in Florida I guess, if they want to win the AO
by ponchi101 Fairly close, but the Czecks are making a few more errors. Cut those, and they are back in.
And now they are.
by
Liamvalid Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:30 am
Liamvalid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:10 pm
Medvedev in 3. I feel he will win a tight first set, then
Rafa will start missing by putting too much on his shots and overthinking things. Maybe 7-5 6-3 6-2. Nadals level hasn’t been 100% and it’s his will to win that has gotten him this far, but he can’t expect any let offs from Medvedev like he got against Shapo
Of all the things that might happen, I would put Nadal overthinking things - or showing mental weakness in any other area - at the very, very bottom of the list.
Very likely not even
on the list of things that might happen...
It happens almost every time he plays Djokovic on a hard court. When Novak starts to outplay him, which often happens, Nadal knows that he has to do something different so he tries switching it up, but he often over compensates and starts missing. Based on their levels from the matches I have seen so far, Nadal absolutely needs to get a fast start here to have a chance, he won’t win this match playing catch up
by ashkor87 Nadal showing us his great volleying ability!
by ashkor87 Medvedev is like the sea pounding the cliffs, sooner or later they have to crumble
by
Deuce Liamvalid wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:59 am
Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 12:30 am
Liamvalid wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 7:10 pm
Medvedev in 3. I feel he will win a tight first set, then
Rafa will start missing by putting too much on his shots and overthinking things. Maybe 7-5 6-3 6-2. Nadals level hasn’t been 100% and it’s his will to win that has gotten him this far, but he can’t expect any let offs from Medvedev like he got against Shapo
Of all the things that might happen, I would put Nadal overthinking things - or showing mental weakness in any other area - at the very, very bottom of the list.
Very likely not even
on the list of things that might happen...
It happens almost every time he plays Djokovic on a hard court. When Novak starts to outplay him, which often happens, Nadal knows that he has to do something different so he tries switching it up, but he often over compensates and starts missing. Based on their levels from the matches I have seen so far, Nadal absolutely needs to get a fast start here to have a chance, he won’t win this match playing catch up
I disagree and still say that if Nadal loses this match, it will not be because of any anxiety or nervousness or poor decision making or any other mental fragility. He is the most focussed, determined, and psychologically strongest player tennis has ever seen, in my view.
If he loses, it will very likely be due to physical fatigue or illness. The strongest mind in the world cannot overcome physical deficiencies of a certain degree.
by texasniteowl I'll be honest, at the end of the quick 1st set, I thought it was going to be 3 sets Medvedev.
But here we are in the 4th, coming up on 4 hours. And Medvedev is looking more tired now. That 2-2 game...hmmm....
by Deuce No-one should ever, ever count Nadal out.
His level of competitiveness is other-worldly.
by skatingfan 5th set coming up
by texasniteowl and set 5...here we go!
Considering how badly Medvedev was outplaying Nadal in set 1, this is still slightly shocking to me...Nadal's competitiveness or not
by
Deuce Even I was thinking that it wasn't looking good for Nadal when he lost the 2nd set, and was looking kind of tired. And Medvedev is 10 years younger...
That said, I am not even a tiny bit surprised that he has come back.
He is incredible, no?
by skatingfan Unbelievable - an amazing era of men's tennis continues.
by MJ2004 Just..wow. I'd never underestimate him mentally but I honestly didn't think he had the physical reservoir after his extended time off and Covid illness to battle back this way.
Amazing win from Rafa! #21
by texasniteowl Incredible. 21...but better than that, Nadal finally gets a 2nd Aussie Open win.
Anyone else about to take a nap now though?
by texasniteowl I know Daniil is a bit controversial, but he definitely has a very personable style when he wants.
by Liamvalid As a Nadal fan, that was possibly the most stressed I’ve ever been watching a match. Never been so happy to be proved wrong about how I thought it would pan out. Great speech from Medvedev, like him even more now
by ponchi101 I thought that was her, but was not sure (talking about Iga).
There is a moment in which you run out of adjectives. That is where we are for the big three.
And I can't avoid being an a****** but, I can't find the gif to caption:
"Meanwhile, somewhere in Belgrade..."
by
Deuce ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 7:08 pm
Looks like Barty's eyes beside Iga...
by skatingfan I was also thinking that looked like Ash.
by ti-amie TBH I didn't think he could do it. Covid. Surgery. Away for months. Heat exhaustion. And he was the last man standing. I will never apologize for being his fan ever since I first saw this kid sleeveless and in what used to be called pedal pushers. He was raised and it shows in his approach to his sport. Congratulations to him and his family.
by ponchi101 He is paradoxical in the sense that you can't believe the things he does, and at the same time, nothing he does should surprise anybody.
I did not come to the forum this morning as I was watching the match. After he could not close the second, I felt that this was a farewell. Admittedly, Medvedev played a gorgeous first set, but he did not drop that much in the second, so I felt it was his.
I updated the GOAT debate table. By now, who knows how that ends.
by meganfernandez As a lifelong Federer fan, this is the first time I have genuinely rooted for Rafa. At first just because I picked him to win the tournament and wanted to be right. At the end, because the effort and heart and joy he showed are the essence of sports, as good as it gets.
I didn't think Federer would end up with the record, and I know if he can't have it, he'd want Rafa to have it. I'm happy for Rafa to have it. It's not a done deal, but I'll be happy if he keeps it forever.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:44 am
Medvedev is like the sea pounding the cliffs, sooner or later they have to crumble
In this analogy, Nadal is Poseidon
by
ponchi101 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:02 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 9:44 am
Medvedev is like the sea pounding the cliffs, sooner or later they have to crumble
In this analogy, Nadal is Poseidon
TA-DA!!!!
by meganfernandez I thought Daniil's press conferences was beautiful and raw and heartbreaking. I couldn't possibly question how he feels or whether he's right or not. It doesn't even matter, it's real to him. I hope his feelings change. I hope this is just how he feels now.
If not, oh well, he has probably already achieved his dream, winning a Slam and likely going to No. 1 pretty soon.
by ponchi101 I read the transcript, and I am in the opposite camp to you. As I said above, somebody has to explain to him the realities of being a top player, and then behaving like he does. During this tournament alone, he called the people at Rod Laver "low IQ" and in the final he said that the lives of the people booing him "were so sad". In a modern world, with such extensive press and media coverage, I wonder how many people were in Laver today that felt those comments were aimed at them. While I agree with you that he was very raw (he really filtered nothing) and he was very open, it seems to me that he has some sort of disconnection with the reality he is in.
He needs to talk to some of the elders, and I do not mean the Aussies or his fellow Russians. Start with Agassi, who did turn around his image. Or, for example, he needs somebody like Ferrero, guiding Alcaraz to being an enjoyable figure. He will never be a fave of mine (I believe I have never seen an uglier game than his) but he is not dumb, and he can be funny an endearing. But these two weeks, he was anything but. If it takes a loss like this to shake him a bit, good for him. But I don't think he is understanding the real scenario.
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote:I read the transcript, and I am in the opposite camp to you. As I said above, somebody has to explain to him the realities of being a top player, and then behaving like he does. During this tournament alone, he called the people at Rod Laver "low IQ" and in the final he said that the lives of the people booing him "were so sad". In a modern world, with such extensive press and media coverage, I wonder how many people were in Laver today that felt those comments were aimed at them. While I agree with you that he was very raw (he really filtered nothing) and he was very open, it seems to me that he has some sort of disconnection with the reality he is in.
He needs to talk to some of the elders, and I do not mean the Aussies or his fellow Russians. Start with Agassi, who did turn around his image. Or, for example, he needs somebody like Ferrero, guiding Alcaraz to being an enjoyable figure. He will never be a fave of mine (I believe I have never seen an uglier game than his) but he is not dumb, and he can be funny an endearing. But these two weeks, he was anything but. If it takes a loss like this to shake him a bit, good for him. But I don't think he is understanding the real scenario.
None of that makes it any less sad and also well-told on his part. Whether he deserved it or not is irrelevant to me in observing the human element. He wasn’t that bad to them and I don’t really think they were bad to him, but it’s just beside the point right now.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
by ashkor87 I was so disgusted by the crowd, I quit watching after the third set..if this is going to be as popularity contest, why hold the tournament at all?! Just do a poll and declare the winner..this time, I thought the trophy should have been presented to the people who screamed out just as Medvedev was about to hit the ball
by ponchi101 Isn't that part of the game? One of the things that made the old format Davis Cup so appealing was going to another country and knowing that, except for 10 people in the stands, the entire stadium was against you. It is intrinsic in sports, as yesterday we saw that the crowd at Arrowhead stadium was not able to push the Chiefs back into another SB (NFL reference).
It is part of this being an individual sport. You have to deal with so many factors, and the crowd is one of them. Connors, a real "bad boy" of the past, used it many times for his advantage at the USO.
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:39 pm
Isn't that part of the game? One of the things that made the old format Davis Cup so appealing was going to another country and knowing that, except for 10 people in the stands, the entire stadium was against you. It is intrinsic in sports, as yesterday we saw that the crowd at Arrowhead stadium was not able to push the Chiefs back into another SB (NFL reference).
It is part of this being an individual sport. You have to deal with so many factors, and the crowd is one of them. Connors, a real "bad boy" of the past, used it many times for his advantage at the USO.
Yeah, it's unfortunate but hostile crowds are part of sports. He handled them so well in NY. Wonder why they didn't kill his inner child with a dream. I really hope it was just a low point and not an enduring feeling. Surely some crowd will restore his faith pretty soon. He should work on building his image in France so he can try to be a crowd favorite there. I know he's not yet great on clay but he probably will make some inroads.
by ti-amie Aren't Australian fans known to be one step below the hooligans that infect English soccer fandoms? Also, with everything that happened before the tournament started people who may never have paid attention to the Australian Open were now invested and paid attention to all of the negative things Medvedev said about them. It was never going to be a love in for him in the Final.
I think that players like him, Tsitsipas, and Zverev have lived lives where no one has ever told them no, and are now realizing that outside of their families no one is going to grovel at their feet just because they've arrived. As someone else said here, they're not very likable.
by mick1303 I looked at the comments section for Youtube video with Medvedev's interview. The amount of support he is getting is enormous.
Note: there is a wast difference between "not groveling at their feet" and behaving in a civilized manner - not shouting between serves, not cheering DFs, even when rooting for an opponent.
by
ponchi101 ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:47 pm
...
I think that players like him, Tsitsipas, and Zverev have lived lives where no one has ever told them no, and are now realizing that outside of their families no one is going to grovel at their feet just because they've arrived. As someone else said here, they're not very likable.
And I am so tempted to close this topic RIGHT NOW. Nothing more to say (from me, anyway)
Bullseye.
