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Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:41 am
by Deuce
Come on, Ashkor... We can change who is the 'second, third, fourth best', etc. after every match, and we'd have different players each time. But that's obviously not the best way to determining the hierarchy of player talents.
Rankings are not based on the one or two or three latest matches, or even on the most recent tournament. They are based on the past 52 weeks - and as such, they are almost always an accurate reflection.
Just because a player loses in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean that he/she is not worthy of his/her ranking. Conversely, just because a player makes the quarters or semis does not mean that their ranking should suddenly jump 10 spots.
The only ranking I have somewhat of a problem with right now is Raducanu at #11. Obviously, the bulk of her points are from last year's U.S. Open - which was 9 months ago. She also has some points from last year's Wimbledon, which was almost a year ago. She has done nothing noteworthy since then. If last year's Wimbledon and U.S. Open are removed from her points, would she be in the top 50, even?
Other players' points are more widely spread out over several tournaments, not just 2. As such, if there is any ranking to complain about, it's Raducanu's - because it includes such a small sample.
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:33 am
by ashkor87
Deuce wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 6:41 am
Come on, Ashkor... We can change who is the 'second, third, fourth best', etc. after every match, and we'd have different players each time. But that's obviously not the best way to determining the hierarchy of player talents.
Rankings are not based on the one or two or three latest matches, or even on the most recent tournament. They are based on the past 52 weeks - and as such, they are almost always an accurate reflection.
Just because a player loses in the 1st or 2nd round does not mean that he/she is not worthy of his/her ranking. Conversely, just because a player makes the quarters or semis does not mean that their ranking should suddenly jump 10 spots.
The only ranking I have somewhat of a problem with right now is Raducanu at #11. Obviously, the bulk of her points are from last year's U.S. Open - which was 9 months ago. She also has some points from last year's Wimbledon, which was almost a year ago. She has done nothing noteworthy since then. If last year's Wimbledon and U.S. Open are removed from her points, would she be in the top 50, even?
Other players' points are more widely spread out over several tournaments, not just 2. As such, if there is any ranking to complain about, it's Raducanu's - because it includes such a small sample.
frankly, if all we are going to do is count points, why are we needed? why is there even a forum to discuss it? There will always be, and should be, some subjectivity to questions like this, else we can leave it to the accountants, tennis fans not required!
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 9:50 am
by Deuce
But you're saying that the second best player right now is Osaka. Her results over the past 6 months - including recently - don't demonstrate that at all. And so I ask what is your criteria for appointing her as the 'second best player right now'?
Same thing with Leylah. She had a good Roland Garros... but in the tournaments prior to Roland Gaarros, she lost early.
Same with Anisimova...
It seems to me that you are assessing and ranking players based primarily on what you feel is their potential - and/or on how good you feel they should be playing, and not basing it on their results.
But results are the only thing that matters.
If rankings were based on what different people feel is the potential of each player and/or how they did in their most recent tournament, we'd have 100 different #1 players, 100 different #2 players, 100 different #3 players, etc., etc..
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 10:52 am
by Suliso
Indeed, Osaka as #2 right now based on what???
ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:49 pm
by meganfernandez
I’m reminded of the thing I tell myself as a player - my potential is not my level. On potential or peak level, yes, Osaka is 1 or 2. But not on current level. She hasn’t played like that (consistently) in a long time. And she skipped half of last season.
Rankings reflect a year’s worth of results. For a tighter snapshot, there’s the race. Everyone knows that.
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Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:51 pm
by ashkor87
4 slams!
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:53 pm
by meganfernandez
ashkor87 wrote:4 slams!
By this logic, Serena and Venus would be 1 and 2.
Osaka is not playing like a top 10 player and hasn’t for a while. She has the potential but the rankings don’t reflect potential. You know that.
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Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:56 pm
by ashkor87
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:53 pm
ashkor87 wrote:4 slams!
By this logic, Serena and Venus would be 1 and 2.
Osaka is not playing like a top 10 player and hasn’t for a while. She has the potential but the rankings don’t reflect potential. You know that.
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Didn't Miami impress you at all?
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:01 pm
by ashkor87
Osaka is close to her best now..she isn't a clay-courter so I discount the clay swing..at her best, she is the #2 player. I go by sheer quality at their best, assuming they are or will be back there soon..hence not Serena! But Andreescu yes, Bencic too...
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:07 pm
by ashkor87
Muguruza remains a puzzle to me .not sure she can ever be back to her best level...
A way to quantify this way of assessing quality is to look at peak Elo and then ask- can he/she play at that level again,? I see no reason why Osaka and Andreescu and Bencic cannot..as for Leylah, I am going by my assessment of how good she is, and how well she can perform..I certainly think she will be better than Coco, for instance..all this is subjective, but that is what makes it a discussion..else yes, rankings tell you the average performance over the year, can't argue with that.
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:41 pm
by ashkor87
appling that logic, then
Peak Elo
1. Vika 2325 (unlikely to get back to that level)
2. Swiatek 2263
3. Osaka 2199 (likely to be back there sooner or later)
4. Halep 2178 (ok, fair enough but her best is behind her)
5. Kvitova 2174 (definitely not gettign back there, ever)
6. Andreescu 2158 (no reason why she cannot get back)
7. Bencic 2121 (fair enough)
8. Kontaveit 2106 ( good solid player, dont expect her to get back there again)
9 Coco 2044 (fair enough)
and so on...
I quite believe this..
ref: tennisabstract.com
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:34 pm
by meganfernandez
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:56 pm
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 12:53 pm
ashkor87 wrote:4 slams!
By this logic, Serena and Venus would be 1 and 2.
Osaka is not playing like a top 10 player and hasn’t for a while. She has the potential but the rankings don’t reflect potential. You know that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Didn't Miami impress you at all?
Miami is why I added "(consistently)." Because she had a good run then. She's obviously one of the best in the world when she's playing her best, but that's the whole trick - playing your best throughout a season or for the big events.
Don't let the rankings drive you crazy. They have a very specific meaning/value.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:07 pm
Muguruza remains a puzzle to me .not sure she can ever be back to her best level...
Same, as a big Muguruza fan (she was my most-recent true favorite player). Good reminder that every player is unique. All wired and built differently, all with different life circumstances, priorities, ambitions, values. We might never know what shaped her career like this. On one hand, certainly seems like she is leaving some big titles on the table. On the other, two Slams, two more finals, No. 1 - most players with the same potential never get close to that. I think the rest of her career will be more of the same - maybe some peaks and great runs, but not an extended time playing her best.
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:44 pm
by ashkor87
please note - peak ELO is not potential, it is what they have actually done. Question is, are they close to that now or will they get there?
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:50 pm
by Suliso
ELO comes from chess and it's much more appropriate there, but even in that game it changes over time and strength of players is not evaluated by their peak ELO's.
Re: ATP & WTA rankings
Posted: Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:56 pm
by ashkor87
Suliso wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 2:50 pm
ELO comes from chess and it's much more appropriate there, but even in that game it changes over time and strength of players is not evaluated by their peak ELO's.
and where do you think ranking comes from?