Talk About Tennis 2.0

saw a story which says City of Troy has a long stride but doesnt hit the ground as many time per second as he needs to on dirt.. 'cadence' they call it.. so I would not expect him to do all that well on dirt.. which leaves us with Fierceness, I guess...

Ashkor, there were A LOT of great races yesterday at Breeder's Cup. I'm looking forward to watching today as well. There are a million question marks surrounding City of Troy since he's never raced on dirt. Being a son of Justify, he should be able to handle the dirt just fine. But the other side of his pedigree is Galileo--pure turf--but a great horse nonetheless.

I just think 5/2 is way too short on him. Fierceness isn't much better at 3/1, but he's logical.

That said, the Del Mar main track played pretty fair yesterday. I didn't see any bias favoring speed. So if you want to roll the dice on a dead closer like Sierra Leone (12/1) or Senor Buscador (30/1), the price is right--especially on Senor Buscador. (Shut up, Dry. Senor Buscador has NO chance.)

I'll be interested to see how the Japanese horses do.

I'm a huge fan of Thorpedo Anna and very much looking forward to her romp in the Distaff (Race 6).

Arthur's Ride is another curious horse running today in the Classic. I'm anxious to see what kind of a trip he gets. He wants the lead, for sure. But I don't think he's going to get it today because of his outside post position. Can he sit just off the pace and pounce at the top of the stretch? I don't know. He has a win at this distance, but the fact he was beat by a few other horses in this field in his last race (also 1 1/4 miles) where he got the lead and faded (that was his next race after winning the Grade 1 Whitney at 1 1/8 miles) may not bode well for him. But he might be able to turn the tables on them, especially if you believe in the "bounce back" angle, and the price will be right. He should go off at about 10/1 odds.

I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.

If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:43 pm I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.

If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.

Oops! I'll post the race here once it's available.

Okay. The race is up.

This was probably the surprise of the day. I don't know what Irad was doing on the 9.

This was my favorite race of the day (so far).

I didn't know that there were two races.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:09 am I didn't know that there were two races.

The Breeder's Cup? Oh, it's a 2-day thing. Yesterday, they had an undercard and then several 2-year-old races. Today, they did the Breeder's Cup races for the older horses. I think it's something like 18 races in all over 2 days? Something like that.

It's a phenomenal event.

great job by Sierra Leone's trainer.. I always liked him but thought he lacked fighting spirit.. well, today, he had the fight all right.. holding off Fierceness. the knock on Turf horses proved to be correct - City of Troy just never got going.. Thorpedo Ana is truly awesome, made it look like no contest..

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:51 am

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:09 am I didn't know that there were two races.

The Breeder's Cup? Oh, it's a 2-day thing. Yesterday, they had an undercard and then several 2-year-old races. Today, they did the Breeder's Cup races for the older horses. I think it's something like 18 races in all over 2 days? Something like that.

It's a phenomenal event.

I checked again. 14 races are official Breeder's Cup races--five races for 2-year-olds on Friday and nine races for older horses on Saturday.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 1:32 am great job by Sierra Leone's trainer.. I always liked him but thought he lacked fighting spirit.. well, today, he had the fight all right.. holding off Fierceness. the knock on Turf horses proved to be correct - City of Troy just never got going.. Thorpedo Ana is truly awesome, made it look like no contest..

Flavien Prat (yes, the jockey that got Maximum Security disqualified in the Kentucky Derby a few years ago) rode Sierra Leone perfectly. I was right about the short-stretch problem for closers. But Flavien negated that threat on the turn and grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch. Flavien did that.

Thorpedo Anna is an incredibly special horse. And she's just a 3-year-old. If I owned her, I would really struggle with the dilemma whether to keep racing her or breed her. I suspect she'll race at least one more year. She's just THAT good.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:43 pm I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.

If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.

Listened to good interview with Jerry Bailey. He brought up this very comment about the short stretch.

He also commented that the 2yo filly field was very weak.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n ... 0675313037