Talk About Tennis 2.0

Updated probabilities-
Swiatek 50%
Sabalenka 25
Garcia 15
Rybakina 5
Field 5 - mostly Pegula

Alexandrova playing horrendously...too bad

Yesterday the ESPN crew mentioned that in her previous match, Aryna DID NOT serve a single Df. That is considerable, especially because even the very best of servers serve one or two during a regular match.
She is indeed looking very good, and she is crushing the ball. 25% sounds about right, I still say Iga at 50% is a bit high. Give Bencic (who goes against Aryna) a few percentage points there.

Indeed, seems like Sabalenka is at least 2nd favorite at this stage

Sabalenka has no middle gear. Her good is very good, and her bad is very bad. Even through all the double faults and beating herself, etc., she often 'looks really good' and 'looks like she will win the tournament' until she falls apart completely. She has disappointed many people who've fallen for it over and over.
She'll have to actually win a couple before I become a believer.

I like what I've seen from Garcia. She believes in herself now. She's come through a couple of tough matches where she was strongly challenged. In the past, she had a lot of trouble winning those matches. But now, when the going gets tough, she rises to the challenge and wins. Rather than getting scared when she's challenged, she now bears down and becomes even more aggressive. And it's working.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:11 pm Yesterday the ESPN crew mentioned that in her previous match, Aryna DID NOT serve a single Df. That is considerable, especially because even the very best of servers serve one or two during a regular match.
She is indeed looking very good, and she is crushing the ball. 25% sounds about right, I still say Iga at 50% is a bit high. Give Bencic (who goes against Aryna) a few percentage points there.

Statistically speaking, 50% is exactly the proportion of tournaments, and majors, Swiatek wins..hence 50% probability

And, much as I love Bencic, I feel her time to win majors has come and gone...

Bencic is 25 years old.
Sabalenka is 24 years old.

I don't understand how one can see Bencic as being past her prime, and see Sabalenka as being in her prime. Doesn't make much sense to me.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 20, 2023 9:17 am next up - Swiatek.. Rybakina has the game to trouble Iga-

And so it proved..awesome, flawless Rybakina

jazzyg wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:23 pm Not that easy if she has to play Ostapenko.

Obviously Ostapenko can lose to anyone, but she also can beat just about anyone.

Good call!

so now?
Probabilities:

Sabalenka 50%
Garcia 30%
Rybakina 10%
field 10% (Pegula, Krejcikova, Ostapenko et al)

Sabalenka 20
Garcia 20
Pegula 20
Rybakina 10
Pliskova 10
The rest splits the last 20%. It is that close.

I'd give no more than 0.5% to Pliskova. Bencic and Ostapenko is more likely than that (not very likely).

As for Gauff she has an admirable consistency, but not enough game to challenge the best when it counts the most. For now anyway. Someone her age is still expected to improve considerably.

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:40 am I'd give no more than 0.5% to Pliskova. Bencic and Ostapenko is more likely than that (not very likely).

Agree

Pliskova in particular, doesn't really belong at this level, she has not played well the last couple years..