My filly, Bold Article, was sold for $50000 a few weeks ago--a very fair price for her and a 5-fold increase over her original purchase price. She will be moving to California, if she hasn't already--probably the Santa Anita/Del Mar circuit. She's almost as well traveled at this point as Swiss Skydiver.
I will miss her so much. But this is business.
My colt, Tiz the Dude, raced at Tampa Bay Downs on New Year's Day. He was awful, finishing fifth out of six. Even though he has a win, the partnership is having a difficult time finding a buyer. Finishing fifth out of six after taking a huge drop in class while going off as the morning line and post-time favorite didn't help. At all.
Meanwhile, my other filly, danceswithbourbon, who has not yet raced and just turned 3 years old, is now in Tampa and will soon resume training after having growing pains. (She's a big girl.) She is a daughter of Outwork (by Uncle Mo). Outwork finished as the #1 freshman sire of 2020. His babies like turf most but can perform on dirt as well, and she is out of a Gone West mare, which should further accentuate the turf credentials when she is ready to race. We think that will be around March. Jordan Blair is training her.
In addition to danceswithbourbon, I'm joining the new partnership with Shooting Star for three 2-year-olds for 2021--one colt and two fillies. I have been told two of the three should be ready to race early in 2021. Of course, that can change at any moment. All three of them will be trained by Saffie Joseph (same trainer as Bold Article and Tiz the Dude).
by Fastbackss This was a good read - looks like you are experiencing many elements of the business already.
Oh, and now I need a bourbon.
by dryrunguy Fastbackss, I have this absurd fantasy... That I can sell all of my sheep, level the barn, rebuild a horse stable, and buy Bold Article for a brood mare. Crazy, no?
by Fastbackss Let's revisit this after I have another bourbon...
by ponchi101
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:58 am
So, I have some things to report.
My filly, Bold Article, was sold for $50000 a few weeks ago--a very fair price for her and a 5-fold increase over her original purchase price. She will be moving to California, if she hasn't already--probably the Santa Anita/Del Mar circuit. She's almost as well traveled at this point as Swiss Skydiver.
I will miss her so much. But this is business.
...
This is a peculiar way to announce you are rich
Good for you. And glad you are here
by dryrunguy LOL! No, I am not rich. I only get a small percentage of the sale and the purse money. Actually, when it is all said and done, after Tiz the Dude is sold, I'll only get about 40% of my original investment back. Had all three of the horses in the partnership performed the way Bold Article did, then I would have made a few bucks. But this is the chance you take.
by dryrunguy Tiz the Dude has been sold. I was not told the sale amount, but he is now with a new trainer in Louisiana and is actually entered to race later this week at Delta Downs. So that means the Bold Article/Tiz the Dude partnership is over.
Meanwhile, I received a wonderful picture of my 3-year-old filly through another partnership that has yet to race. She had growing pains (she grew too much too fast as a 2-year-old and had to be sidelined from training). But she did an unofficial work yesterday morning, will undergo a series of works over the next month or so, and, if all goes well, will take to the Tampa Bay Downs track sometime in late February or March.
I introduce... Danceswithbourbon. FYI, the guy walking her is 6' tall. Yup, she's a big girl.
by JazzNU She's a beauty
by ponchi101 What an impressive animals indeed. Dances with Bourbon? Dances with Champagne...
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:50 amShe's a beauty
The hard part will be figuring out what she wants to do. Her dam's pedigree, coupled with the success of other Outwork babies, screams turf--probably a mile or more. But big horses typically don't do well on turf. Generally. There are always exceptions.
I don't envy Jordan's position (Jordan Blair is the trainer). Given her growing pains, I would be inclined to start her out on turf, maybe at about 6 furlongs. Turf is so much easier on the bodies of first-time starters (unless you get mugged twice like Bold Article did on her debut).
But it wouldn't surprise me at all if what she really wants is a mile or more on dirt. The Gone West influence on the dam's side prefers turf, but it doesn't exclude dirt success at all. Hell, Gone West was out of a Secretariat mare.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:28 am
What an impressive animals indeed. Dances with Bourbon? Dances with Champagne...
Well, she's a Kentucky bred, so you have to go with bourbon.
by JazzNU @dry, I checked with @ponchi and if you want this thread moved to the Other Sports section of the forum, it can be done. It's more your thread than anyone else's so totally up to you imp. I noticed it wasn't there when I was posting about NBC Sports Network the other day so I thought I'd mention it.
by ponchi101 Too late. I moved it. It is a sport, and belongs here. But, if you feel it needs a place in OTHER STUFF, I can move it back.
Again, to me it is a sport.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:49 am
@dry, I checked with @ponchi and if you want this thread moved to the Other Sports section of the forum, it can be done. It's more your thread than anyone else's so totally up to you imp. I noticed it wasn't there when I was posting about NBC Sports Network the other day so I thought I'd mention it.
I've been meaning to ask for it to be moved, but I kept forgetting. That's where it was on the previous version of TAT. Thanks Jazz and Ponchi!
by dryrunguy I can report that Danceswithbourbon had her first official work at Tampa Bay Downs Sunday morning after a very long layoff. It was not a fast work (3 furlongs or 3/8 of a mile; she was 21st out of 33), but that's okay. We weren't going for that. We just wanted to take her out for a spin and make sure she got through it okay, which she did.
She'll do another work at 3 furlongs this coming weekend and then a 4-furlong gate work the weekend after that. If all goes well after two more works, she'll either go into a race, if we can find one we like (we don't want a maiden claiming race, and we'd prefer a turf sprint), or she'll do another work, this time at 5 furlongs, and then race.
The trainer, Jordan Blair, may need to get creative with the folks in the office at Tampa Bay Downs to get them to write a race for her. He has a very good relationship with the folks there.
So, that's where we are. The plan is NOT for her to win first out--not to mention, Jordan doesn't have a reputation for that. Her second or third starts will be where we're thinking about how and where to get a win. That's more Jordan's style.
by Fastbackss Is the "not to win" have anything to do with claiming?
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 3:23 am
Is the "not to win" have anything to do with claiming?
No, not at all, if I am understanding your question correctly.
There are a lot of trainers who have reputations for winning first time out. Wesley Ward would probably top that list. He won't race them until he thinks they're ready to grab the lead out of the gate and go gate to wire.
But sometimes, you just want to get the horse on the track and get some experience--winning isn't the priority. That doesn't mean they can't win. It's just means that's not the primary objective.
Given everything Danceswithbourbon has gone through with her growing pains (growing too much too fast as a 2-year-old), Jordan and Matt just want to... Ease her into it. I think she'll ultimately want something in the ballpark of a mile.
The main reason we don't want her in a claiming race is because we think she has decent potential. Danceswithbourbon was a $50K private purchase for the primary owner. (Of course, that's pennies in this business.) But he has a lot invested in her, especially after the setback. And I suspect he has plans for her over the long term as a brood mare.
by Fastbackss Thanks for clarifying - it makes sense.
I just wondered if there was a "hidden" backstory that made sense to let her come out of the gate slower - something I wouldn't know as a casual observer.
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:30 am
Thanks for clarifying - it makes sense.
I just wondered if there was a "hidden" backstory that made sense to let her come out of the gate slower - something I wouldn't know as a casual observer.
You always want a horse to break well out of the gate and make a good showing--poor breaks can quickly become a bad habit (aka, Tiz the Dude). And if you can get a win first out, that's awesome. We'd take that. It costs roughly $3000US/month to properly maintain a racehorse. So there are always bills to pay.
For Jordan, though, a win first time out isn't the priority.
by dryrunguy in the past 6 days, three horses racing at Charles Town (WV) have been euthanized on the track after sustaining fatal injuries during a race. And that's with no racing on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.
by Deuce
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:36 am
in the past 6 days, three horses racing at Charles Town (WV) have been euthanized on the track after sustaining fatal injuries during a race. And that's with no racing on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.
This is pathetic. Really. These horses - beautiful animals - are used and essentially sacrificed so that some people can get their jollies.
I've never been a fan, and never will be.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:36 am
in the past 6 days, three horses racing at Charles Town (WV) have been euthanized on the track after sustaining fatal injuries during a race. And that's with no racing on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.
Yikes! That's not good. Are they going to investigate to make sure there's nothing causing this or is that solely going to be a Santa Anita thing?
Changing tunes. Have you been there @dry? Wouldn't be that far from you.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:36 am
in the past 6 days, three horses racing at Charles Town (WV) have been euthanized on the track after sustaining fatal injuries during a race. And that's with no racing on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.
Yikes! That's not good. Are they going to investigate to make sure there's nothing causing this or is that solely going to be a Santa Anita thing?
Changing tunes. Have you been there @dry? Wouldn't be that far from you.
I have been to the casino, and I have been to the area where people bet, but that was a long time ago. Charles Town is a little over 2 hours away.
I routinely watch Charles Town. While it is well known for one of the most horrific wrecks in horse-racing history (that was a long time ago), and while Charles Town is widely considered the "bottom of the barrel" when it comes to U.S. horse racing (there are worse), I have never seen anything like this.
The last time I saw a horse go down at Charles Town was on October 8, 2020 (Lil Mr Matt). I thought for sure it would be a fatal injury. It wasn't. He just fell, got up, and everything was fine. He raced again 6 weeks later (very cautious race, I remember it vividly, didn't finish well). Since then, he has been second in his last two starts. Before that? I don't remember anything in the past year.
I don't know what's going on. The track veterinarians scratch about 3-5 horses per race day because the veterinarians suspect the horses are not sound enough to race. That's a good thing. Perhaps they can do more. I guess I am more concerned by the trainers who plan to race horses track veterinarians think are not sound enough to race.
I saw all three races involving the fatalities. In two of the three, it appears the horses just broke down for no obvious reason. Venetian Drive was trying to pass about three-wide on the turn--and went amiss. Tonight, Mio's Long Term was between horses on the turn and ready to make his usual move and fell down sideways. Horrible.
In the other instance (don'tmesswithbull), the horse and jockey were in horrible traffic. You could feel the disaster just waiting to happen. Don'tmesswithbull was stuck behind a wall of horses, looking for a way to get through; there was nowhere to go; I think he clipped heals with a horse in front of him, went down... Again, horrible.
::
It just seems like too much too fast in too short a time at Charles Town to chalk it up to bad luck or coincidence. But why? I don't know.
It breaks my heart, that's for sure.
by dryrunguy Six-year-old Monomoy Girl made her 2021 debut in the slop in the Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn Park today. Going into the race, she had 13 wins and 2 seconds out of 15 career races. That includes a gap where she did not race at all in 2019. In addition, going into today's race, she had earned $4.4 million in purse money.
She went off at 1/5. The race starts around the 1:58 mark. How I wish they would retire her and let her have babies. Watching her race makes a wreck of me. But she clearly loves what she does.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, there are a few races I want to share with you that had serious Kentucky Derby implications.
First, I'll share Greatest Honour's race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Next up for him will be the Florida Derby.
by dryrunguy And here's the Southwest Stakes yesterday at Oaklawn--on a monstrously sloppy track. Essential Quality is the #1 horse. He beat Spielberg, a Baffert horse. Spielberg is not Baffert's best prospect for the Derby, but he improved significantly over his previous races.
by ponchi101 Isn't that dangerous for the horses? Running on that mud?
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:43 pm
Isn't that dangerous for the horses? Running on that mud?
It seems like it would be, but I can't remember seeing a horse sustain an injury while running in mud, though I'm sure it has happened.
Some horses absolutely love running in slop. Remember Justify during the Triple Crown in 2018? He loved it. Pretty much any foal sired by Super Saver loves a wet track. On the other end, all indications are that most American Pharaoh babies don't take to mud at all.
And then there are some horses that love running in slop but only if they have the lead. As soon as they lose the lead and have mud flying into their face, they stop. And then you have horses that don't mind getting mud on the face at all. Essential Quality looks like one of those horses.
But some horses hate the slop. Which is why you'll typically see a bunch of scratches on any given day at a track where the conditions are muddy.
Wet grass is something else entirely. In the U.S., even a small amount of rain generally gets turf races moved to dirt. But in European and Australian turf races, they run through the rain. I have a lot of questions about that.
by dryrunguy Well, it's official. I finally scraped together enough coin to join the 2021 Shooting Star Syndicate--the same syndicate I joined in 2020. The check and the signed contract went in the mail yesterday.
This time, Shooting Star is only offering one syndicate instead of one cheaper syndicate (my syndicate from 2020) and one more expensive syndicate. Like the cheaper syndicate from 2020, it consists of three horses--though only two of them ever raced. They out-earned the more expensive syndicate BY FAR.
In any case, here are my three horses for 2021. These are in addition to my other horse, Danceswithbourbon, from another syndicate, who will likely make her debut as a 3-year-old later this month.
::
Here's Cryptic Creed--a 2-year-old colt. He is a son of Jimmy Creed, the sire of the only filly who beat Bold Article twice. LOL! His dam, a daughter of Big Brown, won twice in 14 starts. Both wins came at a mile and 70 yards at Delaware Park.
Here's Rock Along--a 2-year-old filly. She is a daughter of Bayern, who won the Breeder's Cup Classic in 2014. The dam is a daughter of Rock Hard Ten and won her first and last of eight career starts--both wins were sprints. She has produced two winners.
And here is Unconscious--a 2-year-old filly. She is a daughter of Uncaptured, who was the leading freshman sire of 2017 before he was sold to South Korea, out of an Overanalyze mare who never raced. Unconscious appears to be the mare's first foal.
Last I heard, two of the three should be ready to race early. But I don't know which two. And SHOULD is a very big word.
by ponchi101 Beautiful animals, Dry. Hope they run like the wind!
by dryrunguy This happened yesterday. Forget Essential Quality and Greatest Honour. Based on what we've seen so far, Bob Baffert yet again seems to have the inside track to another Kentucky Derby win. Even if Life Is Good is still REALLY green.
by ponchi101 Problem with your posts here: horses names are so strange that I sometimes don't know if you are talking about a horse or it is a comment.
If Life is Good Dances with Bourbon, which is an essential quality, you have to admit it is the Greatest Honor to have the Inside Track to win the Derby.
See what I mean?
by Fastbackss Peripheral story to horse racing on 60 minutes last night.
In short, track doctor found out about a drug used to treat OCD that helped limit symptoms from Covid on the same day he found out 200 people at the track had tested positive.
He made the decision to offer the drug experimentally.
The group that decided to take it saw significantly better results.
by JazzNU On the one hand, that sounds great to have a promising treatment drug for covid. One the other hand, using the population I think they are saying they used to test this is (expletive) concerning.
by dryrunguy If all goes well with her next work this weekend, danceswithbourbon, my 3-year-old filly, will make her debut at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, March 20--dirt, 6 furlongs. I would have preferred turf, but Tampa Bay Downs did not write any turf sprints for 3-year-old fillies only in the latest condition book. They only had 1 turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies and older, and she's definitely not ready to compete against older horses, even if those are winless horses.
Fingers crossed!
by dryrunguy Bob Baffert has another one wound up for the Kentucky Derby. Introducing Concert Tour. He won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn today. I'll have to check the speed figures, but I THINK I still like Life is Good better than this one.
EDIT: I just checked. The speed figure for Concert Tour's win today is provisional, but the preliminary Equibase speed figure is 105 at 1 1/16 miles. That could change by a point or two. Life is Good put up a 110 at the same distance. Essential Quality also put up a 105 at the same distance last weekend.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, 4-year-old filly, Swiss Skydiver, winner of the 2020 Preakness over 2020 Horse of the Year, Authentic, rebounded after a disappointing Breeder's Cup Distaff performance (vet analysis after the Breeder's Cup race revealed she injured a hoof, which none of the talking heads ever mention) to win the Grade 1 Beholder Mile today at Santa Anita.
by dryrunguy I received an update on my three 2-year-olds with the Shooting Star Syndicate.
One of the fillies, Rock Along, and the colt, Cryptic Creed, have completed their first published works--very solid for first-time works at 3 furlongs. Since both are Kentucky-bred, they are slated to be shipped up to Keeneland in the next week or two with the rest of Saffie Joseph's Keeneland string for the Keeneland spring meet which runs April 2-23. If all goes well, both will make their debuts there--most likely closer to April 23 than April 2. I am very pleased to hear they will make their debuts at Keeneland. It has (arguably) the most strict and equitably enforced safety protocols in the United States.
The other filly, Unconscious (I really detest that name), will take a little more time. She is a little behind the other two, which is totally normal. She has some very minor physical stuff going on and will only be hand-walked between now and early April. She will also receive some acupuncture treatment. We hope she will resume regular training in early April. Since she is a Florida-bred, when she's ready, she will go to Saffie's barn at Gulfstream--probably for the rest of the year. If it turns out she doesn't like the track (Bold Article didn't last year), Tampa Bay Downs is always an option. Or she can venture outside of Florida.
::
As for Danceswithbourbon (separate syndicate), on Wednesday, she will be entered in a race for this coming Saturday. We'll know by Thursday if the race has enough entries. I don't think it will be a problem as many 3-year-olds are just getting started or are still looking for that first win. I wish it was a race with larger purse money (only $26K), but it's a race, she's ready, and she will likely need a race or two before she's truly ready to win. And since it's a maiden special race rather than a maiden claiming race, she will be protected from being claimed.
Thanks for sharing the journey with me.
by ponchi101 Good to hear your are doing well.
by JazzNU I don't hate the name Unconscious @dry. Not my fave, but in a sports context (well basketball at least), it has meaning, so it still works to me. But maybe a bit too much to live up to.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:10 am
I don't hate the name Unconscious @dry. Not my fave, but in a sports context (well basketball at least), it has meaning, so it still works to me. But maybe a bit too much to live up to.
I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.
by ponchi101 Well, just don't knock yourself unconscious over it...
(Sorry )
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:48 pm
I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.
Oh I understand that, but was just offering a different way to think of it since I didn't think you followed much basketball so you possibly weren't familiar with the word in that context. In basketball, playing "unconscious" means you are in an unbelievable zone, like you can't miss. Like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard hitting three-point after three-point from anywhere they want. It's an excellent thing. So, just a different way for you to think about it. And I would suspect that this is the origin of the horse's name, since the other meanings are so negative.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:48 pm
I guess I don't immediately think of anything positive when I hear the word. I think of someone who has been in an accident. Or even worse, what can happen to a young woman passed out at a frat party. I just don't like it, but I'll eventually get used to it. As if I actually have a choice.
Oh I understand that, but was just offering a different way to think of it since I didn't think you followed much basketball so you possibly weren't familiar with the word in that context. In basketball, playing "unconscious" means you are in an unbelievable zone, like you can't miss. Like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard hitting three-point after three-point from anywhere they want. It's an excellent thing. So, just a different way for you to think about it. And I would suspect that this is the origin of the horse's name, since the other meanings are so negative.
I don't follow basketball, so I was totally unaware of that connotation. But that helps me relate it to something I understand... Like Irad Ortiz winning 5 of his 6 races in one day at Gulfstream--which he did just last week. He was riding unconscious.
Okay. I feel better now.
by dryrunguy So, Danceswithbourbon's entry in the second race at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday is confirmed. She'll finally get her debut--6 furlongs on dirt. Jesus Castanon will be the jockey. No sign of rain between now and then, though the Tampa area currently is under a flood advisory due to 1-3 inches of rain tonight in a short period of time. That should dry out by Saturday.
To call it a bizarre field of six 3-year-old fillies would be an understatement:
1) Danceswithbourbon will be one of two first-time starters. The other first-time starter has a trainer, Michael Fennessey, I have never heard of before, and he's also the owner and breeder. So she's a home-bred. Having the same trainer, owner, and breeder is pretty rare and generally not successful. Fennessey hasn't had a winner in a LONG time.
2) The favorite will probably be a horse named Opulent Ways, a Liam's Map filly out of an Awesome Again mare, so she's well-bred. I don't know her trainer, either, and he hasn't had a winner yet in 2021. But Opulent Ways has raced twice, both races at Tampa at 6.5 furlongs, finished 4th and 6th, and put up a decent speed figure in her last race.
3) The second choice for bettors will probably be a filly named Moanas Power trained by Carlos Munoz. His win rate is 9%. She has raced four times and finished 5th in her last two races, 2nd in her second race, and 3rd in her debut. But her last race was awful. She got bumped at the start and put up an Equibase speed figure of 9. Yeah, 9. But you can probably draw a line through that outing.
4) The real headscratchers, in addition to the two first-time starts, are a pair of fillies trained by Victoria Oliver. Both are extremely well-bred. For Sure is a Nyquist filly out of an A. P. Indy mare. Very nice pedigree, and foals from Nyquist's first crop have shown their ability to win early in their careers. For Sure made her debut at Indiana Grand in August, finished last of 7 and 22 lengths behind the winner and hasn't raced since. She clearly wasn't ready yet and could be ready to go on Saturday. The other coming off a long layoff, Flippant, is sired by Tapit and out of an Empire Maker mare. Again, REALLY nice pedigree. She made her debut at Churchill in November, was never involved, and finished 10th of 12 and about 17 lengths behind the winner. That was an $85K race, though, with a good field. She could be a new horse come Saturday. And Victoria Oliver wins 13% of her races and will have her two fillies ridden by the two jockeys in the field with the highest win percentages (19% and 20%, respectively).
So, not much about this field makes any sense. Welcome to Maiden Special Weight races!
To keep expectations tempered, I urge you to keep in mind that Danceswithbourbon's trainer, Jordan Blair, has never had a win with a first-time starter. It's not a stat he goes for, though I'm sure he won't object if it happens Saturday. But he doesn't train them with the specific purpose to win first time out like some trainers do. That said, Jordan has the second highest win percentage among trainers represented in the field while Castanon has the third highest win rate among jockeys in the field.
The most important thing is that she gets through the race with a good, safe trip, and if we happen to get 2nd or 3rd, I think everyone affiliated with Danceswithbourbon would be more than thrilled.
by dryrunguy Strange morning line for tomorrow's race (Race 2). It's not at all what I expected, though Danceswithbourbon is about right at 5/1. That said, I'm not sure I could have done any better. It's just a really nutty race. I can't wait for the TVG coverage tomorrow to hear the talking heads try to make sense of it. If Matt Carothers pics Danceswithbourbon to win, I'll want to punch him in the p-face!
Preliminary Equibase speed figure for Danceswithbourbon is 72. That's solid for a first out.
by ponchi101 Good for you (and for her )
by dryrunguy
by Fastbackss Woot! That's good because I am leaving in an hour to get some bourbon...
by dryrunguy Video of Danceswithbourbon's race has been posted. It was TIGHT at the wire, but she got it done and showed A LOT of guts.
by JazzNU Congrats @dry! So exciting. And truly, what a great race! Typically I would toast a celebration with some champagne or prosecco, but again, I'll stick with honey bourbon. I'm thinking I need to get another bottle soon.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun Mar 21, 2021 12:40 am
Congrats @dry! So exciting. And truly, what a great race! Typically I would toast a celebration with some champagne or prosecco, but again, I'll stick with honey bourbon. I'm thinking I need to get another bottle soon.
Enjoy your bourbon! In other news, I just saw the official number on trainer Jordan Blair's futility with first-time starters. Going into today's race, he was 0/17 with first-time starters.
Jordan is super disappointed he wasn't there for the race. But today was his son's third birthday, so he had the priorities right, even if he didn't get to see his first winner on a first-time starter. He's a really good guy.
We'll see how Danceswithbourbon is tomorrow. All indications are that she will come out of the race fine. And then, off she goes to either Keeneland or Churchill Downs--much deeper, shark-infested waters. It's kind of like going to Congress.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, I was so giddy over Danceswithbourbon's win yesterday that I neglected two very important events regarding the lead up to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
First, Life is Good sustained some kind of a hind quarter injury during his workout at Santa Anita yesterday morning. He has been scratched from the Santa Anita Derby and requires at least 2 months of rest. That pulls him off the Derby trail.
Second, Hot Rod Charlie won the Louisiana Derby, a key prep race for the Kentucky Derby and an automatic "win and your in" race for the Derby. Mandaloun was the 6/5 post-time favorite.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:23 pm
First, Life is Good sustained some kind of a hind quarter injury during his workout at Santa Anita yesterday morning. He has been scratched from the Santa Anita Derby and requires at least 2 months of rest. That pulls him off the Derby trail.
Minor bone chip in back left ankle.
by dryrunguy I mentioned horse breeders and owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, a few times before on the old forum because my filly, Bold Article, ran against one of their runners a few times. The Ramseys have won six Eclipse awards--four times for Outstanding Owner and twice for Outstanding Breeder.
Now two trainers, Wesley Ward and Mike Maker, two of the most successful trainers in the business, are suing the Ramseys for unpaid training bills that apparently go back about a year. Combined, the Ramseys owe Ward and Maker nearly $2 million.
What is it with rich people not paying their bills?
Ramseys Hit With Two Civil Suits Seeking Nearly $2 Million In Unpaid Training Bills
Multiple Eclipse Award-winning owner/breeders Ken and Sarah Ramsey have been hit with a second lawsuit from one of their trainers while in the process of settling a separate suit filed last week by another. Wesley Ward filed suit against the Ramseys in Jessamine County Circuit Court March 19, while Mike Maker filed suit in Fayette Circuit Court a week earlier. Each case centers around just under $1 million in delinquent training bills.
Ward alleges that the Ramseys owe $974,790.40 in unpaid training bills, trainer's portion of winning purses, and interest. Invoices attached to Ward's suit show balances stretching back to June 2020. Although Ward concedes Ramsey has made payments in the months since, with one $50,000 payment days before the lawsuit was filed, the balance has remained in the high six figures throughout that period as training bills continue to mount.
Maker's suit alleges the Ramseys have been delinquent on training bills in his case for “almost four years” and their current balance owed to him is $905,357.29 – down from the $1.25 million they owed last summer. Maker's suit stated the couple promised to pay him in full by the end of 2020, but that did not happen. According to the complaint, Maker said $543,597.26 is more than 90 days past due.
When reached by phone last week, Ramsey said he was surprised to learn Maker had filed suit against him and was eager to work out a deal to pay Maker in full in exchange for the suit being withdrawn. As of press time, Maker's suit remained open per digital court records.
“I thought we had things worked out and I thought I had a schedule to get things worked out on,” said Ramsey, citing his long-standing relationship with the trainer. “I'm shocked. I didn't think he'd file a lawsuit because my assets well exceed what I owe him, by far.
“It's not that I'm not paying, it's just that I guess I'm not paying fast enough. I have never beaten anybody out of a dime.”
Ward and Maker both filed UCC-1 financing statements with the Kentucky Secretary of State to create liens against the horses which had racked up the unpaid invoices. Maker placed liens on 27 horses, while Ward placed liens on a separate group of 44 horses. Both trainers have had some of those horses leave their possession through retirement or claiming, with Maker down to just three still in his barn: Artie's Rose, Risk Manager, and Telephone Talker. Ward's suit seeks a court order to sell the horses named in his lien, with proceeds being applied to the unpaid balance, as well as any ongoing expenses from his day rate of $110.
The Ramseys have won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Owner four times (2004, 2011, 2013, and 2014) and the award for Outstanding Breeder twice (2013 and 2014). Since 2000, Equibase reports the couple has won 2,217 races from 9,790 starts for total earnings of more than $97 million. Their annual earnings have fallen from their peak in 2013 of over $12 million, and last year the stable brought in $2.3 million from 274 starts. Their Ramsey Farm in Nicholasville, Ky., was the longtime base for the operation's homebred and centerpiece stallion, Kitten's Joy, who relocated to Hill 'n' Dale in 2018.
Last year, Maker was also one in a long line of horsemen who were carrying outstanding balances by Zayat Stables. Ahmed Zayat filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection in September 2020, listing an outstanding balance of $120,921.88 to Mike Maker among other creditors.
Maker trained a number of the Ramseys' graded stakes winners, including Vicar's In Trouble, International Star, Oscar Nominated, Admiral Kitten, Al's Gal, Kitten's Dumplings, Furthest Land, and Shining Copper.
Ward has trained graded stakes winners Artie's Princess, Emotional Kitten, Holiday for Kitten, and Pleasant Prince for the Ramseys. Ward was also tasked with accomplishing Ramsey's goal of getting a winner at Royal Ascot, which Ramsey has yet to attain.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:12 pm
Assessed value vs liquid assets?
I would bet that's precisely the issue. The Ramseys have oodles of assets, but they aren't liquid. That's my guess. I also don't think this is a new development. Their breeding operation has cut back in recent years. Some years back, they sold their prominent stallion, Kitten's Joy. Their earnings via purse money has dropped sharply (I think they article stated just over $2 million in 2020).
And it all flows downhill. The owners pay the trainer. The trainer pays the jockey. Trainers have to pay their backstretch people. So if trainers don't get paid, it restricts the cashflow to cover their own expenses.
Don't get me wrong. Wesley Ward and Mike Maker are rolling in it. I doubt they have cashflow problems in spite of the money owed them by the Ramseys. But still... After this episode, the Ramseys will have a helluva time finding trainers willing to take the risk. And you know it's really bad when the legal documents filed by trainers urge the court to force the sale of horses, if necessary, to pay the money owed.
Danceswithbourbon debut TBD finish line.JPG
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by dryrunguy A friend of another member of the Danceswithbourbon partnership was at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and snapped this photo at the finish line of her race. Oops, I made it TOO small when I resized it. Oh well. You get the drift.
Danceswithbourbon debut TBD finish line.JPG
by ponchi101 Great shot. I assume that DWB is #3?
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:29 pm
Great shot. I assume that DWB is #3?
Yes. This photo was taken a few feet after the finish line. The official chart of the race has Danceswithbourbon winning by a head. But I think it was closer than that. More like a nose.
Our problem now is figuring out what to do next. The last thing you want to do in a situation like this (win in a debut at a fairly low level) is to put them in a position where they are likely NOT to succeed. But you also should be able to expect some improvement, too. And of course, you want larger purse money. All of the races at Keeneland and Churchill in April where she fits are $81K-$109 allowance races. Those are just too tough for where she is in her development. We're looking at a $34K Allowance Optional Claiming race at Indiana Grand (she would not be up for claim) on April 26 at 8 furlongs (1 mile) on dirt. It's a slight step up in level and probably a logical spot to take on other winners for the first time.
This is the part of this business I never grasped before. I still have a lot to learn, but I'm getting there... I only need another 30-40 years to figure it all out.
by dryrunguy The Florida Derby, a key prep race for the KY Derby, is today. Post time is 6:40 p.m. EST. Greatest Honour is the morning line favorite at 6/5. At the end, he'll be charging from the back of the field. But I'll be rooting for Collaborate--he's trained by Saffie Joseph. The bad news is he's a speed horse stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. That's typically not a great combination.
by JazzNU If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:12 pm
If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.
No problems with jockey name recognition on the top 4 contenders in the Florida Derby. Though none of those four jockeys have ever won a Kentucky Derby. Yet.
Greatest Honor: Jose Ortiz
Collaborate: Tyler Gaffalione
Known Agenda: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Spielberg: Javier Castellano
We'll see if the landscape changes today, but I don't think either of these four horses are Derby-caliber horses compared to Concert Tour and Essential Quality.
by dryrunguy Here's the result of the Florida Derby. Known Agenda avenged his recent losses to Greatest Honour, who finished fourth. Todd Pletcher will have a horse in the Derby.
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:12 pm
If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.
No problems with jockey name recognition on the top 4 contenders in the Florida Derby. Though none of those four jockeys have ever won a Kentucky Derby. Yet.
Greatest Honour: Jose Ortiz
Collaborate: Tyler Gaffalione
Known Agenda: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Spielberg: Javier Castellano
We'll see if the landscape changes today, but I don't think either of these four horses are Derby-caliber horses compared to Concert Tour and Essential Quality.
So, I have to backtrack on my most recent statement. Going into Saturday's Florida Derby, Essential Quality and Concert Tour had posted the best Equibase speed figures (105) at any of the Triple Crown race distances. That's no longer the case.
Known Agenda put up a 112 in his win yesterday, with second place finisher, Soup and Sandwich, posting a 108. The morning line and post-time favorite, Greatest Honour, put up a 103. Of course, speed figures aren't everything. But they are certainly part of the puzzle.
And of course, any one of these contenders, or someone else floating about out there, could dramatically improve or regress at any given moment.
by dryrunguy The Kentucky Derby prep races are winding down. Three are occurring today--with 100 Derby points on the line for the winner (40 for second place). 50 Derby points basically means you're in.
Anyway, here's today's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. We had a MASSIVE upset at 72-1.
by dryrunguy Here's the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Essential Quality did not need the Derby points; he was already in. Essential Quality only needed a race. But I can't help but wonder if this difficult win a month before the Derby took a lot out of him.
On the other hand, he just keeps finding a way to win.
by dryrunguy And here's the last one for today--the Santa Anita Derby. Of course, all the focus was on the two Baffert horses. But Rock Your World (Hi, Wanda, from In Living Color) had other ideas.
Rock Your World came into the race undefeated. But both of his wins were on turf. Everything about the pedigree suggested it should work well enough. But this well?
FUN FACT: If the connections decide to stick with Umberto Rispoli as the jockey for the Derby, and I hope they do, Umberto will get to run in his first Kentucky Derby 4 Saturdays from now.
by dryrunguy Preliminary Equibase Speed Figures for today's Derby prep winners and runners up--all races at 1 1/8 miles. I'm throwing in Rombauer--just for scale and because I THINK he has enough points for the Derby field even though he was a distant third behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated:
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:55 pm
The Kentucky Derby prep races are winding down. Three are occurring today--with 100 Derby points on the line for the winner (40 for second place). 50 Derby points basically means you're in.
Anyway, here's today's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. We had a MASSIVE upset at 72-1.
Holy Crap!!!
by dryrunguy There are a few other backstories to the Bourbonic race, Jazz. Let's see if I can remember them all.
First, assuming the connections stick with Kendrick Carmouche to ride Bourbonic in the Derby, that will make Carmouche the first Black jockey to ever ride in the Derby.
Second, Carmouche was originally slated to ride another contender in the Wood Memorial, Brooklyn Strong. But instead, he opted to ride Nicky the Vest (a son of Run Happy) in the Wood. But then Nicky the Vest suffered a minor bone chip injury that pulled him off the Derby trail. So, Carmouche, the top rider at Aqueduct had NO mount for the Wood. The connections associated with Bourbonic approached his agent and asked if Carmouche would take the mount, and of course he did because you can't get a cut of the purse if you don't ride anything. So that was the twisted path behind how Carmouche ended up on the long-shot Bourbonic.
And Carmouche's cut for the win was at least $40K--probably more.
by JazzNU It was just an amazing ride. I didn't read your post closely before I watching to know who was going to win it, just knew you said there was an upset. And if it had been I think the horse's name was Crowded Trade? He made a move late between horses that had him gaining quickly on the front two and that would've been a seriously impressive come from behind win, seemed like he was going to pull it off, but then Bourbonic came out of nowhere and just passed everyone. Truly a legendary run. If we get anything close to that at any of the Triple Crown races this year, I'll be thrilled.
by dryrunguy I knew I was forgetting something from that race. Todd Pletcher had two horses in the race: Bourbonic at 72-1 and Dynamic One at 15-1. They finished first and second. A $2 bet on the Todd Pletcher exacta paid $906.
by Fastbackss All these horse names with bourbon in them...
by dryrunguy The final two Kentucky Derby prep races went off today. In the Stonestreet Lexington at Keeneland, there was a huge upset of the favorite, Godolphin-owned Proxy. Here's the race. Unfortunately, if I understand things correctly, the win did not give King Fury enough points to make the Derby field. His owners may still be able to get him in if they are willing to pay.
Also of note in this race, Baffert-trained Bezos (#3), a $400K purchase coming off his first win in a 1-mile race at Santa Anita, was near the front until he progressively started going backward. He finished last and put up a preliminary Equibase speed figure of 37. Bezos was "supposed" to be Baffert's top 3-year-old this year. Now it is looking iffy as to whether he will ever have a stallion career. There's still time, though.
by dryrunguy And here is today's Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. MASSIVE upset. The owners of Super Stock (#1), which includes Keith Asmussen, father of the trainer Steve Asmussen, should send flowers and part of the purse money to Florent Geroux, the jockey aboard Caddo River, for taking all of the mustard out of the heavy race favorite, the Baffert-trained Concert Tour, a home-bred for Gary and Mary West.
This was a "win and you're in" race for the Derby. Concert Tour will still get in based on points. So will Caddo River. Whether those horses actually run or not is up to the connections.
by dryrunguy Danceswithbourbon will race at Indiana Grand on 4/20--6 runners at 6 furlongs on dirt, $36K race, I believe. The race barely filled. I am still waiting for other details.
There's also a chance another filly of mine, Rock Along, will race at Keeneland on the closing day of the Keeneland Spring Meet on 4/22. That is up in the air. She had a minor hoof problem about a week ago--not a big deal. If it goes, she'll run on turf. But first, we need confirmation she is 100% sound and good to go. Stay tuned.
by dryrunguy I had a chance to take a look at the field for the next race for DWB (Danceswithbourbon--those of us in the partnership use DWB in our correspondence). It's actually field of seven--not six. Early indications are that the weather will be a little chilly but still ideal.
There are two horses in the field that look pretty tough--Patty H and Shades of Truth.
I remember Patty H. In her last race at Gulfstream on 3/26, she beat a horse named To A T, which is owned by the more expensive syndicate affiliated with Shooting Star, my other partnership. In fact, Patty H has won two of her last three. She's a really nice horse and will be tough to beat. She's trained by Brad Cox, who is regarded in some circles as a doper that would make Bob Baffert look like a boy scout. (He also trains Essential Quality, who is headed to the Derby.)
Shades of Truth has raced five times with a win and two second place finishes. She's been running at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and is trained by Tom Amoss. She's also coming in off of a bullet work at Delta Downs on April 5 (fastest of 17 at 4 furlongs).
What I do not understand is why both of those fillies are dropping so much lower in class. If this was a claiming race, it would be highly suspicious.
This will be a tall task for DWB. And it is very common for horses to NOT win after they break their maiden, especially for a horse that won first-time out. But it is not impossible. Especially since Patty H and Shades of Truth are front-runners. If their jockeys get stupid trying to beat each other, it could open the door for someone else to close in and pick up the pieces, which we already know DWB likes to do.
We'll see. Given how difficult it is to win when facing winners, I would be delighted with a 2nd or 3rd place finish.
by Ribbons Harvesting some mint this morning jolted me into realizing that the Kentucky Derby is nigh and that I hadn't looked at the leaderboard since, like, December.
. . . Good heavens, Essential Quality has been in a league of his own so far, yes?
Dry, what are your thoughts on Soup and Sandwich?
by ponchi101 I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.
by dryrunguy
Ribbons wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:23 am
Harvesting some mint this morning jolted me into realizing that the Kentucky Derby is nigh and that I hadn't looked at the leaderboard since, like, December.
. . . Good heavens, Essential Quality has been in a league of his own so far, yes?
Dry, what are your thoughts on Soup and Sandwich?
Essential Quality will be very tough, especially if the track is wet. It's hard to cap it properly since we haven't had the post position draw yet. The outside posts are supposed to be highly disadvantageous, but that certainly wasn't the case last year as both Authentic and Tiz the Law broke from the outside gate.
I liked Rock Your World A LOT for this race--that is, until his connections pulled Umberto Rispoli (who has never had a mount in the Derby) off the horse, even though he rode Rock Your World in his last two starts, in favor of Joel Rosario, who rode him in his first race--all three were wins. It makes sense. Joel Rosario is one of the hottest riders in Kentucky at the moment. But that's a brutally cold deal for Umberto.
As for Soup and Sandwich, even though he didn't win his last race (second in the Florida Derby to Known Agenda), that race was a monstrous improvement for him. If he continues to improve like he did between his second and third races, he's right there in the conversation.
BTW, I don't think I mentioned here that Bob Baffert's Concert Tour is OUT. I'll have to look at the field again, but this could be the first year in a long time where Baffert doesn't have a serious contender. At least in my estimation. I reserve the right to change my mind about that, though.
A side observation: This is the second crop of American Pharoah 3-year-olds--and he has yet to have a legitimate contender on the Derby trail. His stud fee is now down to $100K. It was $250K.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:17 pm
I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:17 pm
I come to this topic and still find horses' names are the greatest. If there is a horse called SOUP AND SANDWICH, there has got to be one called OODLES AND NOODLES. MAC & CHEESE. GUAC & MOLE.
There's got to be.
Really hope some horse owner steals that one from you.
by Ribbons For the record, I was asking about Soup and Sandwich (mostly) because he's a gray.
For what it's worth, there are four horses named Guacamole in Equibase. And seven named Salsa, seven named Taco, six named Picante, three named Queso, and five named Chimichanga.
by dryrunguy Here are the latest Derby odds. There will be multiple versions of these from different sources over the next several days:
Essential Quality 9/5
Rock Your World 9/2
Hot Rod Charlie 17/2
Highly Motivated 7/1
Super Stock 10/1
Known Agenda 10/1
Bourbonic 12/1
Medina Spirit 16/1
Helium 16/1
Dynamic One 16/1
Caddo River 16/1
Sainthood 20/1
Midnight Bourbon 20/1
Like The King 20/1
Dream Shake 20/1
Crowded Trade 20/1
Soup And Sandwich 25/1
Proxy 25/1
O Besos 25/1
King Fury 25/1
Keepmeinmind 30/1
Hidden Stash 40/1
Get Her Number 40/1
Hozier 66/1
Hockey Dad 150/1
by JazzNU That looks like a pick 'em after the top 2. Way too bunched together in odds. Two truly long shots? They are definitely guessing at it right now and need some action to come in.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:54 am
There are two horses in the field that look pretty tough--Patty H and Shades of Truth.
I remember Patty H. In her last race at Gulfstream on 3/26, she beat a horse named To A T, which is owned by the more expensive syndicate affiliated with Shooting Star, my other partnership. In fact, Patty H has won two of her last three. She's a really nice horse and will be tough to beat. She's trained by Brad Cox, who is regarded in some circles as a doper that would make Bob Baffert look like a boy scout. (He also trains Essential Quality, who is headed to the Derby.)
Shades of Truth has raced five times with a win and two second place finishes. She's been running at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and is trained by Tom Amoss. She's also coming in off of a bullet work at Delta Downs on April 5 (fastest of 17 at 4 furlongs).
What I do not understand is why both of those fillies are dropping so much lower in class. If this was a claiming race, it would be highly suspicious.
Patty H was scratched this morning by the track veterinarian. That changes everything. Post time is 5 p.m.
by dryrunguy DWB finished a distant second (8 1/2 lengths) but held on for third by a neck. The substitute favorite (Shades of Truth) after the scratch of Patty H finished dead last and folded the second DWB challenged her on the lead. Instead, the winner was the longest shot on the board, Al Alhambra (30/1), who decided today was the day she was going to run a race unlike anything she's done before. There's nothing you can do about that--when the light bulb goes off.
The second place finish will more than cover DWB's barn bill for the month.
::
Rock Along is still on schedule to race at Keeneland on Thursday. She'll run against two Wesley Ward first-time starters, one of whom was purchased in Europe for over $470K. Ouch.
by Fastbackss Progress! And a covered Barn bill isn't a bad thing.
Unrelated aside - any of the folks you talk with in to Zed_Run?
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:27 am
Progress! And a covered Barn bill isn't a bad thing.
Unrelated aside - any of the folks you talk with in to Zed_Run?
I have never heard of it, but I will certainly look into it!
::
DWB actually earned $6500 for finishing second. So that will cover her barn bill for at least 2 months.
Looking at the numbers, honestly, she clearly regressed. This happens a lot after a first race, especially a first win. Equibase's preliminary speed figure gave her a 53. So that's a significant step backward. It's also possible she just didn't like the track, but relying on that feels like both an excuse and a crutch. She just got beat.
Compare that speed figure to the winner, who was running in the 53 range in all three of her previous races. She chalked up a 71. So that was a big step forward for her.
This is how the ball bounces sometimes. You just have to roll with it. As if you have a choice.
It also makes you appreciate those horses like Essential Quality that just keep moving forward with every start of their career--at least so far. That is SO hard to do race in and race out.
I'm still proud of her. And I'm glad she held on for second. A third-place purse would have been half of what she got and only covered her barn bill for a month. BIG difference.
by dryrunguy So, Rock Along finished 6th of 10, but I was VERY encouraged by her debut for a very big reason--she has excellent early speed. She won the break from the 10th stall in the gate and immediately darted over to the rail to get front position along with the #1 (Ruthin)--that's the $470K horse from Europe trained by Wesley Ward. She was able to stalk the leader all the way to the top of the stretch, but then Rock Along began to tire and got passed by four other horses leading up to the wire.
But that early speed will be a tremendous asset for her. Now, we just need to focus on improving her endurance, which will be easy because she's bred to like a mile or more when her body is ready for it.
::
This race had another first for me... I've never had a horse that was beaten by a horse (Ruthin) that is being prepped to run at the Royal Ascot. Ruthin won this race by 6 lengths and put up a whopping 84 for an Equibase speed figure. That's an incredible number for a 2-year-old first time starter--even for the turf. She is GOOD. And for $470K+--she better be.
by dryrunguy I can report Rock Along came out of the race just fine, in spite of being very tired. It occurred to me after I provided my original report that I assumed she just got tired at the end (it made sense, she missed a week of training 2 weeks ago) and had not considered the fact she may have bled. But she scoped beautifully. It really was just about missing a week of training. (Though no one was going to beat the 1 horse today.)
::
I can also report that both Rock Along and Danceswithbourbon are headed to Churchill. Assuming their training goes well, that's where they'll race next. I also believe my colt, Cryptic Creed, was schedule to go to Churchill in the near future, but that may be in doubt. He hasn't done a published work in a month. (But that doesn't mean he isn't training. Saffie can be a little cagey about this sort of thing. I have not been told about any kind of setback in his training.)
::
Meanwhile, the Euclid partnership (DWB) is planning to buy a 2-year-old at the Ocala sale tomorrow or the day after. I'm already in. If you ever get a chance to google "Buckpasser in the X position", do it. It makes for fascinating reading. I mention it because it came up when our Euclid partnership leader, Matt, reported on his research from the Ocala sale. I had no idea. I am learning new things EVERY day.
Rock Along Keeneland.jpg
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by dryrunguy Rock Along before today's race. She was 100% professional the whole time.
Rock Along Keeneland.jpg
by ponchi101 Gorgeous creature.
by dryrunguy So, we have another horse.
Yesterday, a 2-year-old colt (not yet named) went through the auction ring and came out RNA--that means Reserve Not Attained, which is a fancy way of saying that the bid price in the ring wasn't as much as the minimum price established by the sellers. So our fearless leader, Matt, approached the sellers immediately after the sale and made an offer, which they accepted. This was also how he got Danceswithbourbon last year.
This colt is from the first crop sired by Unified. Unified raced 7 times in his short career--all on dirt--winning 4 of them at distances ranging from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 mile. These included 2 Grade 3 wins, 1 Grade 2 win, and a 2nd in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap. BUT, my favorite thing about Unified is that he's a son of Candy Ride, an Argentine stallion that has without question made the greatest impact on the U.S. throughbred gene pool of any foreign-born sires in the last 15 years. He is also one of the top sires of sires in the U.S.
The colt's dam, Flatter Me First, is what we call a "hard-knockin" mare. She raced 32 times in 5 years with only two brief layoffs in her career. She had 7 wins, 2 2nd place finishes, and 5 3rd place finishes earning just over $101K in purse money. Strangely, 6 of her wins came on dirt at Mountaineer and Churchill (I guess back in the day Mountaineer used to attract better horses than it does today) with another win on the synthetic at Turfway Park. All of her wins came at the 1 mile distance. She has produced two other foals--both have been winners.
So, now he'll go to the farm to decompress from the sale. Apparently these sales are pretty stressful, and then he'll go to Jordan Blair around June 1 to resume training.
I'll post a picture once I have one. All I have now is a video of him during a work--and he DOES look fast. Hopefully we'll be able to get him off the ground more quickly than DWB, but of course, we'll make sure he gets all the time he needs.
by dryrunguy
by dryrunguy Some horses pulled out of the Derby last week, so some of the horses on the bubble got into the field. Here is a really nice feature on the JOCKEYS that will be riding in the Derby. Of particular note, the last horse in--Brooklyn Strong--will be ridden by Umberto Rispoli. Umberto THOUGHT he would get his first ride in the Derby when he rode Rock Your World to victory in the Santa Anita Derby. But the connections snubbed Umberto in favor of Joel Rosario who has much more big race experience. Now Umberto will get his first Derby mount aboard Brooklyn Strong.
by dryrunguy They drew the posts for the Kentucky Derby today. Interesting dynamics here. (BTW, I LOVE Ken Rudulph, but for your own good, don't actually listen to him. He loves crazy longshots. Though I don't think there really ARE any CRAZY long shots this year. Especially if the weather forecast holds up... They're calling for heavy rain in Louisville all day Thursday and into Friday morning.)
by dryrunguy Just checked on the track conditions today at Churchill... It's officially rated as sloppy. I'd call it Sloppy on Steroids.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:46 pm
Just checked on the track conditions today at Churchill... It's officially rated as sloppy. I'd call it Sloppy on Steroids.
Though I go with this thinking anyway, now even more so - advantage veteran jockeys.
by JazzNU
Racing Commission Asked to Ban Essential Quality, the Kentucky Derby Favorite
BY MARY ELLEN CAGNASSOLA
A horse owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum might not make it out of the gate at this year's Kentucky Derby after renewed allegations that the ruler of Dubai abducted his own daughter, the Associated Press reported.
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission (KHRC) received a complaint this week from human rights attorneys and students at the University of Louisville who asked that Essential Quality, Sheikh Mohammed's horse, be banned from the Derby. They also asked that he not be allowed to enter any horses in any races until his daughter, Princess Latifa, is freed or a public hearing is held.
Sheikha Latifa bin Mohammed Al Maktoum said last spring that she is being held against her will and was detained by commandos in 2018 after trying to flee Dubai via yacht. Her 38-year-old sister, Shamsa, was abducted from Cambridge, England, in August of 2000 and has not been seen since.
A judge found last year that Sheikh Mohammed was responsible for both abductions in a case between him and his second official wife, Princess Haya, over their two children. Princess Haya fled Dubai in 2019 with their daughters in fear of her husband, she told the courts.
Essentially Quality, an undefeated grey colt, is favored 2-1 among 20 competitors and the sheikh's strongest chance of winning the Kentucky Derby after 11 tries and millions of dollars spent. The request to remove Essential Quality from the race is not expected to be honored, AP reported.
Kristin Voskul, spokeswoman for the KHRC, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The sheikh had told the the court he was relieved at having found his "vulnerable" daughter, Shamsa, after she went missing.
Princess Haya is the daughter of the late King Hussein of Jordan and married Sheikh Mohammed in 2004.
The cases are particularly sensitive in Britain because of economic and historic links to Dubai. Sheikh Mohammed, who is vice president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is hugely influential in Britain's racing industry because of the money he spends on breeding and racing. He is friendly with fellow horse enthusiast Queen Elizabeth II.
The sheikh is well-known in Kentucky racing circles, with his Godolphin operations based at Jonabell Farm in Lexington. While the sheikh won't be among the limited fans in attendance Saturday, Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers indicated the protest has little chance of success.
"Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid currently holds a valid racing license in the state of Kentucky. There have been no horse racing violations and nor are we aware of any other U.S. regulatory or governmental investigations," Rogers said.
"We are focused on the 3-year-old thoroughbreds who have earned their way into this year's Kentucky Derby and our responsibility is to the integrity of the race and the safety of those horses."
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:46 pm
Just checked on the track conditions today at Churchill... It's officially rated as sloppy. I'd call it Sloppy on Steroids.
Though I go with this thinking anyway, now even more so - advantage veteran jockeys.
Advantage Essential Quality. Let's see how the track looks tomorrow. It should stop raining Friday morning, which should give the track some time to dry out. But it could still be a messy track late on Saturday.
EDIT: Oops... I hadn't seen the most recent post.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:41 am
Advantage Essential Quality. Let's see how the track looks tomorrow. It should stop raining Friday morning, which should give the track some time to dry out. But it could still be a messy track late on Saturday.
EDIT: Oops... I hadn't seen the most recent post.
I still think it's advantage Essential Quality, I so don't see Kentucky doing anything about this with their Derby cash cow. I think they'd have to void all the bets on that horse, so truly don't see that happening in a million years.
And I recognize the name so I think this might be the Sheikh that finances the tennis tournaments in Dubai. So, so creepy.
by dryrunguy The first race at Churchill today is about 30 minutes away. The dirt track is set to fast.
by dryrunguy King Fury is out of the Derby. He had a high fever and elevated white blood cell count this afternoon. It won't be official until tomorrow, but trainer Kenny McPeek announced it on Twitter.
by dryrunguy
by JazzNU Medina Spirit is absolutely beautiful. Even among this group of expertly groomed gorgeous horses, he's standing out like the belle of the ball.
John Velazquez with back to back Derby wins! What did I tell you about betting the veteran jockeys? Mother knows best.
Sad for Bourbonic, doomed by that 20th position. Hope they run him in another Triple Crown race.
I didn't think he was going to win anyway, but still thrilled Essential Quality didn't win or show.
by Togtdyalttai I loved how Steve Kornacki came in from politics and straight away he was the only one of NBC's cast that correctly predicted the winning horse.
by dryrunguy I am still trying to wipe the egg off of my face for saying days ago that Baffert didn't have a legitimate Derby contender.
Here's the race.
by ti-amie The jockey/ies went heavy with the whips towards the end but what an accomplishment for Medina Spirit leading all the way.
by ti-amie
by ponchi101 Heck, let all these millionaires prepare their own mint-julep...
In addition to the generous pay, it's a work environment where employee safety is paramount. As evidenced by the say 500 masks worn among the 52,000 people present even though there was supposedly a 100% mask requirement instituted for the event.
I will never understand places like Kentucky and West Virginia with straight up abject poverty voting for people that are adamant about keeping the minimum wage where it is. Those states ought to be single-issue voting states given the game changing aspect a raise in the minimum wage would make there.
by dryrunguy People have decided that, if they are outdoors, they have nothing to worry about. You could see it as plain as day at Keeneland over the past month.
And a whole bunch of the jockeys who raced yesterday at Churchill were riding at Santa Anita today. Track-mandated quarantines have largely been abolished. Granted, most or all of the jockeys have already had some version of COVID already. But still... Given the uncertainty with the variants, it's a dangerous game on the roulette wheel...
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon May 03, 2021 2:22 am
People have decided that, if they are outdoors, they have nothing to worry about. You could see it as plain as day at Keeneland over the past month.
And a whole bunch of the jockeys who raced yesterday at Churchill were riding at Santa Anita today. Track-mandated quarantines have largely been abolished. Granted, most or all of the jockeys have already had some version of COVID already. But still... Given the uncertainty with the variants, it's a dangerous game on the roulette wheel...
That is clearly the case in many places.
Kentucky Derby was touting their safety measures in staging the highest attendance event since in the pandemic began, and to have a 100% mask rule and it be crystal clear they couldn't even get 10% to wear them was something to see. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are quite a few vaccinated people in attendance, but you can't convince me at all that the grand majority were 2 weeks after their second dose.
Gonna hope and pray this doesn't turn into a super spreader event, in particular because this is heavily attended by out-of-staters.
by dryrunguy If I understand it correctly, tracks typically have a 100% mask rule for attendees EXCEPT when they are eating or drinking (or smoking). So attendees are eating or drinking non-stop, which is generally how it works at tracks anyway.
What gets me is maskless people who are screaming or yelling. That is still a legitimate risk factor--indoors OR outdoors.
by JazzNU The majority shown weren't eating or drinking and didn't even have a drink in their hand to help explain it away. This was just a joke from the Kentucky Derby. Maybe other places do a better job with enforcement, but it didn't even look like they tried.
Here's are two quick videos if you didn't catch any of the pre-show that showed the crowds more often.
by dryrunguy I cannot think of any track I have seen that does better at enforcement than Churchill. That is to say, Churchill is probably the norm. Many tracks, I'm sure, are even more lenient.
I can also report that Matt (lead of the DWB syndicate) went to Churchill today. He states they are no longer checking temperatures prior to entry. I don't know when they abandoned that policy. It MIGHT have been right after the Derby.
by dryrunguy In other news, Baffert's Concert Tour is a go for the Preakness.
by Fastbackss
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:46 am
In other news, Baffert's Concert Tour is a go for the Preakness.
Of course - he needs others in the field to run interference
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 1:46 am
In other news, Baffert's Concert Tour is a go for the Preakness.
Of course - he needs others in the field to run interference
He didn't on Saturday, but your point is well taken.
Honestly, this decision was probably more up to Concert Tour's owners. But still, your point is well taken again.
by dryrunguy Danceswithbourbon will run her third race Monday, May 10 at Indiana Grand. It will be Race 6 on the program and is scheduled to go 7.5 furlongs on the TURF. If the weather does not cooperate, then it will be 8 furlongs on the dirt (or mud). Several of the Outwork babies have LOVED the slop. So, either way, if we get turf, the Gone West influence in the dam's pedigree should show up. If we get an off track on dirt, the Outwork influence could show up.
The overarching plan is to get her ready for stiffer competition at Churchill.
by Fastbackss That is something I didn't realize. I presumed the surface determined the training leading up. I didn't know it was "possible" to flip surface the day of
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:35 am
That is something I didn't realize. I presumed the surface determined the training leading up. I didn't know it was "possible" to flip surface the day of
Then I should clarify that this "flip" only occurs in one direction. If grass is too wet, tracks routinely switch them to dirt, leading to a bunch of horses getting scratched because they don't like the dirt or the slop. But races scheduled for dirt NEVER get moved to turf. Similarly, at tracks like Golden Gate that have a turf course and a synthetic/all weather track, races scheduled for turf often get moved to synthetic if there has been rain. But races scheduled for the synthetic never get moved to turf.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:28 pm
Danceswithbourbon will run her third race Monday, May 10 at Indiana Grand. It will be Race 6 on the program and is scheduled to go 7.5 furlongs on the TURF. If the weather does not cooperate, then it will be 8 furlongs on the dirt (or mud). Several of the Outwork babies have LOVED the slop. So, either way, if we get turf, the Gone West influence in the dam's pedigree should show up. If we get an off track on dirt, the Outwork influence could show up.
The overarching plan is to get her ready for stiffer competition at Churchill.
I took a look at the field for DWB's third race on Monday (see Race 6 at https://entries.horseracingnation.com/e ... 2021-05-10). This will mark the third time in three races where she goes up against a really bizarre field. We have a few horses coming off layoffs, including a Mike Maker trainee (Maker is one of the best turf trainers in the U.S.) owned by Three Diamonds that hasn't run since November, had a terrible last race that led to the long layoff, and is taking a massive drop in class (but is not for sale--I figure they think she just needs a race--and has been training steadily); a few other horses that have never raced on turf (but includes a talented Brad Cox trainee that is also taking a massive drop in class and has a pedigree that SCREAMS for turf); a horse that broke her maiden on the synthetic but should like grass and was claimed in her last race; and a horse DWB beat in her last race by a neck who is also stretching out in distance and might take to the grass--yet, DWB got a 10/1 morning line while the horse she beat by a neck got a 20/1 morning line. I'm not following that logic at all.
Trying to make sense of it gave me a headache that required ibuprofen.
BTW, Jesus Castanon will be aboard DWB for the third time. He really likes her.
by dryrunguy Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit tested positive for 21 picograms of the anti-inflammatory drug, betamethasone. That is a legal medication, but withdrawal must be complete before a horse races. Baffert insists Medina Spirit has never been treated with the drug and has requested a split sample for analysis.
Until the investigation is final, Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from bringing any horses to the Churchill grounds.
Meanwhile, Medina Spirit is still scheduled to run in the Preakness on Saturday.
by dryrunguy Tweet of the Day on horse racing Twitter... So far.
baffert shirt.jpg
-->
by dryrunguy Ouch.
baffert shirt.jpg
by ti-amie
Full image:
by ti-amie
by dryrunguy Cancel culture? Huh? In what alternative universe?
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, Danceswithbourbon ran a good race today. There was no way she was going to get by the Brad Cox horse taking a MASSIVE drop in class. I'm a little surprised DWB finished third, but it was still a good result for her, and her preliminary speed figure went back up to something around her first race. So that's improvement.
BTW, they had rain in the Indianapolis area over the weekend, so today's race was pulled off turf and switched from 7.5 furlongs on turf to 8 furlongs on dirt. The dirt track was fast, though.
Most important, she got through the race safely, in spite of having to check on the backstretch, and she earned almost enough in purse money to cover her barn bill for the next month.
by ptmcmahon
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue May 11, 2021 2:02 am
Cancel culture? Huh? In what alternative universe?
Think it's just one of those terms now that people decide just to throw around whenever it suits them and they are angry about being punished for something.
by dryrunguy The Preakness is today. Post time is 6:47 p.m., EST. Medina Spirit, as well as all of Baffert's other horses scheduled to race at Pimlico today, passed all drug tests.
by dryrunguy My apologies for the delay in posting the race. It was a really fun race. I didn't bet it because I was far too confused.
Two Fun Facts: First, this was Rombauer's first win on dirt. He has now won three races--one on turf (his debut), one on synthetic (the win the qualified him for the Derby), and now one on dirt. Second, this was jockey Flavien Pratt's first asterisk-free Triple Crown win. He was the jockey aboard Country House, who won the 2019 Derby only after Maximum Security was disqualified.
by ti-amie It was a great stretch run dry. Rombauer coming around the outside at the turn didn't hurt him at all.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 7:42 pm
It was a great stretch run dry. Rombauer coming around the outside at the turn didn't hurt him at all.
The funny thing is that no one actually did anything wrong. You knew what Medina Spirit was going to do. You new Concert Tour would try to go with him. You knew Midnight Bourbon would try to be forward, which is actually what Irad Ortiz achieved. Irad did everything right. It looked like he was going to pull it off. And then down came Rombauer from the clouds.
Going into the second turn, Rombauer was more forwardly placed than I expected. He was in a perfect position. And he capitalized.
Meanwhile, Rombauer's connections should send flowers to the connections of France Go de Ina. He had Rombauer boxed in on the backstretch and then tried to make that same move as Swiss Skydiver from last year. That gave Rombauer room to get out and get closer--and the rest was history.
by dryrunguy Rock Along will run in her second race in Race 3 Thursday at Churchill. It is a $100K maiden special race with a field of 10 (with 4 also eligible horses who can get it only if others in the main field scratch). She will go 5 furlongs on turf. Florent Geroux will ride again. She will break from post #1. Normally that is not a good thing, but with her natural speed, the inside post should serve her well and allow her to control the rail.
Rock Along will be one of two fillies in the field that have raced before. (The other was the horse that finished right behind her in Rock Along's debut, which means nothing). Wesley Ward, known for his prowess with first-time starters (Rock Along lost her first race to a Ward first-time starter), has two firsters in the field. Brendan Walsh also has a first-time starter of his own.
There's not much else to tell. Two-year-old races are next to impossible to predict. Except you know Ward's two fillies will get absolutely hammered in the betting.
by dryrunguy The New York Racing Association announced yesterday that it has slapped Bob Baffert with a temporary suspension, which means neither he nor any of his employees can enter or stable horses at any of the NYRA's three tracks. While horse racing Twitter is focused on how Baffert can't have a runner in the Belmont on June 5, I don't think he planned to enter that race anyway. BUT, he almost certainly would have had one or two horses running on the undercard for the Belmont. For example, he had planned to return Charlatan to racing for the Met Mile on June 5. Now that won't happen.
The Saratoga Summer Meet doesn't start until July 15. The suspension could be lifted by then.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 6:39 pm
Rock Along will run in her second race in Race 3 Thursday at Churchill. It is a $100K maiden special race with a field of 10 (with 4 also eligible horses who can get it only if others in the main field scratch). She will go 5 furlongs on turf. Florent Geroux will ride again. She will break from post #1. Normally that is not a good thing, but with her natural speed, the inside post should serve her well and allow her to control the rail.
Rock Along will be one of two fillies in the field that have raced before. (The other was the horse that finished right behind her in Rock Along's debut, which means nothing). Wesley Ward, known for his prowess with first-time starters (Rock Along lost her first race to a Ward first-time starter), has two firsters in the field. Brendan Walsh also has a first-time starter of his own.
There's not much else to tell. Two-year-old races are next to impossible to predict. Except you know Ward's two fillies will get absolutely hammered in the betting.
She won. She got the lead and no one was able to pass her. I'll try to find video later tonight.
by dryrunguy The preliminary Equibase speed figure is 82.
EDIT: Bumped down to 69. That makes more sense.
by dryrunguy Go to 3:06 or so. Rock Along is the #1 horse.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:11 pm
She won. She got the lead and no one was able to pass her. I'll try to find video later tonight.
Awesome! What a great run and a fabulous start. Congrats!
And you asked me to talk you out of this. Aren't you glad you don't have sensible friends?
by Ribbons *throws virtual rose petals and opens champagne in celebration*
by dryrunguy A few things:
1) I would be remiss if I did not profusely thank the 5 horse for trying to run sideways the whole way down the stretch--until it was too late.
2) Yesterday's win earned the partnership a check for $57,488. That's only $9,477 less than what Bold Article and Tiz the Dude earned COMBINED in 2020. That'll buy A LOT of oats and hay. It also underscores the hard core financial differences between winning a $100K race compared to a $32K allowance or claiming race. This is one of those things that I always KNEW, but I never grasped it until I SAW IT for myself as an owner.
3) I have no idea what happens next. We just started seeing 2-year-old races in the last 6-8 weeks, so there aren't very many 2-year-old winners to run against. I also have no idea what they'll do in terms of surface and distance for her third race. Rock Along made tremendous improvement in her second race compared to her first. Remember, in her first race she did the "speed and fade" thing, and that was at 4.5 furlongs on turf. Yesterday's race was just a 1/2 furlong longer. While she didn't fade like she did the first time, she was slowing down as she neared the wire. So while I would probably be down with the idea of switching her to dirt if we need to, because she has only trained on dirt and has put up some outstanding times, I'm not sure I'd be in favor of stretching her out more than another 1/2 furlong. We'll see...
Thanks for the support!
by ponchi101 I hope it also buys YOU a lot of wine and cheese, so you can celebrate.
I mean, it can't all go to the horses, right?
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 8:26 pm
I hope it also buys YOU a lot of wine and cheese, so you can celebrate.
I mean, it can't all go to the horses, right?
I've been trying wrap my head around the math regarding when this partnership could actually become a profitable endeavor. There are quite a few variables. But based on what the horses earned in 2020, what they sold for, and what I got back from my 2020 investment with this partnership (and remember, we started with three horses and one never raced), I figure the three horses in this partnership (Rock Along, Cryptic Creed, and Unconscious) need to earn purse money and have sale prices that, combined, totals about $270K--just to break even. So we still have some work to do.
by dryrunguy Don't ask me about the patch on the muzzle. I have no clue. LOL!
by dryrunguy Churchill featured a picture of Rock Along yesterday--without mentioning her. But it was kind of cool.
by dryrunguy In case you've never seen it, THIS is what happens when an apprentice jockey wins his or her first race. It's one of my favorite rituals in sports.
On this occasion, the victim was Omar Hernandez Moreno who won his first career race in Race 2 at Belmont today. The horse he rode went off at 40-1 and paid $83.50 ($2 bet).
by ponchi101 I assume those hoses are to wash the horses, no?
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 7:32 pm
I assume those hoses are to wash the horses, no?
I don't know the Belmont layout that well, but I am guessing those particular hoses are used to spray off horse poop in the walkway. I could be wrong.
But you'll find a zillion hoses in the barn area to wash horses. And after a horse wins a race and is covered with dirt or mud, they typically use buckets of water to both wash them off before their winner photo is taken and to cool them off.
I'll just add this... Baffert has had several horses run at Santa Anita since the news first came out about Medina Spirit after the Derby. He still has winners, but let's just say he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he usually is at Santa Anita.
I do NOT think that is a coincidence.
Off to see what horse racing Twitter has to say about this. Thanks for posting this, Jazz. I had not heard the news. I've been in nonstop meetings all day.
by dryrunguy So... Horse racing Twitter isn't saying much, which should not surprise me. I can't wait to see how TVG handles it once the Californians take over commentary duties.
But the bettors are furious. My pal Swift restated a good point, which he first made as the first positive test was revealed. Unfortunately, nothing will come of it:
by dryrunguy And then there's this... I can always count on Papa Baez for a chuckle (until he gets political):
by JazzNU Feel like I stepped into the Twilight Zone. Am I the only one seeing posts from @dry with Tweets? Reference to "Horse Racing Twitter" as if he's familiar with the community and where to look? And then a reference that suggests he regularly reads someone's Twitter feed?!? My oh my, how the mighty have fallen.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:03 pm
Feel like I stepped into the Twilight Zone. Am I the only one seeing posts from @dry with Tweets? Reference to "Horse Racing Twitter" as if he's familiar with the community and where to look? And then a reference that suggests he regularly reads someone's Twitter feed?!? My oh my, how the mighty have fallen.
LOL! Who woulda thunk it?!?!?!?!? And believe it or not, I actually have a WHOPPING... 38 followers.
by JazzNU Why is an NFL guy reporting this seemingly first? No idea. But my sports guys are very well connected, Shams had the Insurrectionist's covid positive news before everyone else.
by ponchi101 So your horse leaves the barn at night, goes to a club, does some lines of Colombian powder and YOU get suspended?
Not fair...
by dryrunguy Now there's a lot of speculation about where owners with promising 2-year-olds who have Derby potential will send their horses for training. Spendthrift started pulling some of their horses away from Baffert back in May when Medina Spirit tested positive--but not all of them.
This is JUST the beginning.
Meanwhile, from the California thoroughbred community, all you hear are crickets. They have enabled and protected Baffert for so long. I guess there's no reason for them to stop now. It's sad.
by ptmcmahon
JazzNU wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:39 pm
Why is an NFL guy reporting this seemingly first? No idea. But my sports guys are very well connected, Shams had the Insurrectionist's covid positive news before everyone else.
Not sure but I also find it funny the Ed Olyczyk, a former NHL player and broadcaster, has become the go to betting handicapper for NBC broadcasts.
by dryrunguy Twitter is being... Twitter.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:37 pm
Now there's a lot of speculation about where owners with promising 2-year-olds who have Derby potential will send their horses for training. Spendthrift started pulling some of their horses away from Baffert back in May when Medina Spirit tested positive--but not all of them.
Todd Pletcher seems like the most obvious alternative. Wayne Lukas maybe another. Is there something about either that wouldn't make owners go to one of those two?
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:37 pm
Now there's a lot of speculation about where owners with promising 2-year-olds who have Derby potential will send their horses for training. Spendthrift started pulling some of their horses away from Baffert back in May when Medina Spirit tested positive--but not all of them.
Todd Pletcher seems like the most obvious alternative. Wayne Lukas maybe another. Is there something about either that wouldn't make owners go to one of those two?
Wayne's best days are behind him. He's struggling to win races. Anywhere. Agree about Todd. Brad Cox is an option and on the rise, but his day will come eventually in terms of getting caught.
In terms of California trainers, this is a golden opportunity for Dan Blacker, another young trainer on the rise and widely respected for his ethics. But there are other highly successful California trainers as well. Lots of viable options, each presenting his or her own advantages and disadvantages.
All that said, the main reason why the road to the KY Derby has generally gone through California in recent years is because of Baffert. That may change, which actually opens doors to trainers all over the United States.
It's gonna be a wild ride.
by JazzNU Wayne is ancient, but I would've thought he had stables set up with trainers that runs like a well oiled machine by now. That trainer that just won the Preakness for the first time, he was a trainer under Todd Pletcher for several years before going out on his own, so I'd have thought most trainers had a similar setup, so that Wayne's best days being behind him wouldn't doom choosing his stables to work with his overall operation.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:12 am
Wayne is ancient, but I would've thought he had stables set up with trainers that runs like a well oiled machine by now. That trainer that just won the Preakness for the first time, he was a trainer under Todd Pletcher for several years before going out on his own, so I'd have thought most trainers had a similar setup, so that Wayne's best days being behind him wouldn't doom choosing his stables to work with his overall operation.
Wayne is a treasure to the sport, no question. I believe he just turned 80, and he just doesn't get that many horses anymore, so he is primarily playing the claiming game. He's still in it for the love of the horses and the sport. (And he's a BRILLIANT handicapper.) That said, he had a runner in the Preakness, so he's not completely washed up.
by ptmcmahon My kids were very excited by the news. They are cynical jerks like their dad and are tired of seeing Baffert so much over the years (we watch all the Triple Crown races.)
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, Danceswithbourbon will return to the races on Tuesday (June 8). It will be a 6-furlong optional claiming race on the dirt at Indiana Grand, so we'll have to wait to see what the track condition will be on race day. She will be the #5 horse in a field of 7. Total purse money available is $32,500.
We're taking a chance with this race. DWB WILL be in for the claiming tag at $50K. Taking this risk will give her more opportunities to run in more desirable races at Ellis Park, Churchill, and Kentucky Downs (grass) this summer and fall simply because she was once eligible for a claim in a prior race. Race conditions are super complicated, and I have a helluva time figuring it out, but the bottom line is that we're having a very difficult time finding races where she is eligible to run without being completely over her head in terms of class at this stage of her development or being in for a cheaper tag.
Our fearless leader, Matt, did some digging and learned that, so far this year, no horse at Indiana Grand has been claimed for more than $10K. So that is the main reason why we're willing to risk the claim. That said, Indiana Grand has trainers like Brad Cox, Steve Asmussen, and Tom Amoss who also have very deep pockets and are very successful at the claiming game, so that makes me nervous.
The field looks pretty tough in spite of the fact that a few of the fillies haven't raced in a few months while a few others are coming off a really bad, head-scratching performance (including a daughter of California Chrome). But as we've seen already, with inexperienced horses, anything can happen.
::
In other news, based on his training tab, I'm guessing Cryptic Creed is roughly a month or so away from his first race. They had to do a minor procedure on him a few months back because he was getting a little wonky on his back legs. But that went well. Then he resumed very light training for 3 weeks at 3-4 furlongs until they decided to push him a little harder in his work 5/29 at 3 furlongs. That morning, he was the fastest of five at that distance, 37.95 seconds. So he's getting closer to an actual race.
::
After a horrible start to 2021 with three clunker races, Tiz the Dude (from last year, now owned and trained by Rylee Grudzien) has won 2 of his last 3 races and was 2nd in the other. Rylee has found the right level for him, which is races with $8-10K purse value. And it turns out he absolutely LOVES a sloppy track. Who knew?
by dryrunguy Our (Euclid partnership) new Unified colt is settling in nicely in Jordan Blair's stable
by JazzNU Gorgeous!
by dryrunguy The Belmont Stakes is today. Blood Horse put together a nice slide show of the field. I find the field absolutely baffling in terms of trying to predict it.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:15 pm
The Belmont Stakes is today. Blood Horse put together a nice slide show of the field. I find the field absolutely baffling in terms of trying to predict it.
So, yeah. When it doubt, statistically speaking, go with the Tapit baby in the Belmont. Great race. I'll post video when NBC puts it up.
by JazzNU Not the most exciting race, but a good one nonetheless. When they start at quick at Belmont, you know those at the front are almost never going to win it. Damn near got to be Secretariat to set a fast pace at the beginning and maintain it.
Essential Quality isn't the best looking horse, but ran a really smart race. And though my mom agrees with me on the looks, she said "they ain't paying him to be pretty out there." Indeed.
by dryrunguy The race is up.
by dryrunguy Received word today that Rock Along is being pointed to The Colleen Stakes at Monmouth the first week of August. This will be on dirt. [CORRECTION: The Colleen is run on turf, $75K in purse.] 5.5 furlongs.
Stakes. I've never had a horse run in a stakes races.
by Ribbons ROCK ON, ROCK ALONG!
by ponchi101
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:00 am
Received word today that Rock Along is being pointed to The Colleen Stakes at Monmouth the first week of August. This will be on dirt. 5.5 furlongs.
Stakes. I've never had a horse run in a stakes races.
You know I really do not understand this world. How is that different from a "regular" race?
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:00 am
Received word today that Rock Along is being pointed to The Colleen Stakes at Monmouth the first week of August. This will be on dirt. 5.5 furlongs.
Stakes. I've never had a horse run in a stakes races.
You know I really do not understand this world. How is that different from a "regular" race?
It's a big difference. If a horse wins or places (2nd or 3rd) in a Grade 1, 2, or 3 stakes race, their value significantly increases. And so does the potential value of their progeny when they go to the sales ring or are available for private purchase.
Winning or placing in a non-graded stakes race, which is what The Colleen Stakes will be, also increases the horse's value and the potential value of their progeny, just not as much as a graded stakes race. Performing well in a non-graded stakes race could also open the door to competing at the Grade 3 stakes level, maybe even Grade 2.
Think of it as "climbing the class ladder"...
by Ribbons "Regular" race = ITF 15s/25s
Non-graded stakes = Challengers/ ITF 60-100
Graded stakes = main tours
Breeders' Cup = Indian Wells
Triple Crown races = majors
by ti-amie Essential Quality ran a very smart race. I'm surprised the place finisher hung on. He was spent.
by dryrunguy
Ribbons wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:23 am
"Regular" race = ITF 15s/25s
Non-graded stakes = Challengers/ ITF 60-100
Graded stakes = main tours
Breeders' Cup = Indian Wells
Triple Crown races = majors
Well explained!
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:56 am
Essential Quality ran a very smart race. I'm surprised the place finisher hung on. He was spent.
Yeah, I thought Hot Rod Charlie was incredibly impressive in that race. He did everything BUT win.
BTW, Hot Rod Charlie is jointly owned by Spendthrift and a group of five former college football players. One of those five guys in the group is the nephew of Doug O'Neill, trainer of Hot Rod Charlie. He was a $110K purchase (by O'Neill) as a yearling. That's cheap by thoroughbred standards (though still far too rich for me and most people).
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:53 pm
Meanwhile, Danceswithbourbon will return to the races on Tuesday (June 8). It will be a 6-furlong optional claiming race on the dirt at Indiana Grand, so we'll have to wait to see what the track condition will be on race day. She will be the #5 horse in a field of 7. Total purse money available is $32,500.
We're taking a chance with this race. DWB WILL be in for the claiming tag at $50K. Taking this risk will give her more opportunities to run in more desirable races at Ellis Park, Churchill, and Kentucky Downs (grass) this summer and fall simply because she was once eligible for a claim in a prior race. Race conditions are super complicated, and I have a helluva time figuring it out, but the bottom line is that we're having a very difficult time finding races where she is eligible to run without being completely over her head in terms of class at this stage of her development or being in for a cheaper tag.
Our fearless leader, Matt, did some digging and learned that, so far this year, no horse at Indiana Grand has been claimed for more than $10K. So that is the main reason why we're willing to risk the claim. That said, Indiana Grand has trainers like Brad Cox, Steve Asmussen, and Tom Amoss who also have very deep pockets and are very successful at the claiming game, so that makes me nervous.
The field looks pretty tough in spite of the fact that a few of the fillies haven't raced in a few months while a few others are coming off a really bad, head-scratching performance (including a daughter of California Chrome). But as we've seen already, with inexperienced horses, anything can happen.
The track at Indiana Grand is listed as sloppy today. That MIGHT be a good thing. Some of the Outwork babies have really liked an off track. But I'm looking at the track right now. It doesn't look that bad. I'd actually rate it as good (a step below fast) or muddy (a step above sloppy). Post time is 5:32 EST. Fingers crossed.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:03 pm
The track at Indiana Grand is listed as sloppy today. That MIGHT be a good thing. Some of the Outwork babies have really liked an off track. But I'm looking at the track right now. It doesn't look that bad. I'd actually rate it as good (a step below fast) or muddy (a step above sloppy). Post time is 5:32 EST. Fingers crossed.
That didn't go well. DWB broke slowly, was last, rushed up to take fourth, looked like she was going to get third, and then got passed by the two horses she had just passed. Finished 5th out of 6.
I'm not sure we can say she doesn't like an off track. (It really WAS sloppy on second thought.) She really lost the race at the break. And the winner, the Brad Cox horse with a big class edge, was just much the best. Everyone else in the race was running for the spoils Patty H left behind.
I hope we can get her away from Indiana Grand ASAP. After a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th, DWB needs a change of scenery.
One fun fact: DWB was the only horse in the race that was bigger than her lead pony. LOL! She really IS a monster.
by dryrunguy We have a name for the Euclid partnership's new 2-year-old colt. I introduce... Unified Dreams! (Unless the jockey club rejects it for some reason [e.g., already taken]).
by ti-amie He is so beautiful!
by dryrunguy I can report that a slew of owners over the past few weeks have pulled their horses out of Bob Baffert's training barn. Adding to the list just today, Charlatan has been retired to stud, and Life is Good has been moved to Todd Pletcher's barn, which has been the general trend for owners. Lots of owners are bailing on Baffert and moving to Pletcher instead.
I guess it's no longer a guaranteed Californian elite social status symbol to casually mention at dinner parties and other gatherings that you own a horse being trained by Bob Baffert.
by JazzNU Isn't the Preakness winner's trainer in California? I'd think some would choose his barn for relocation with the Preakness win and so many years of training with Pletcher. I thought Pletcher was in NY, so that's quite the move if that's the case for some of these owners.
by Omess
dryrunguy wrote:I can report that a slew of owners over the past few weeks have pulled their horses out of Bob Baffert's training barn. Adding to the list just today, Charlatan has been retired to stud, and Life is Good has been moved to Todd Pletcher's barn, which has been the general trend for owners. Lots of owners are bailing on Baffert and moving to Pletcher instead.
I guess it's no longer a guaranteed Californian elite social status symbol to casually mention at dinner parties and other gatherings that you own a horse being trained by Bob Baffert.
They are giving up on him I guess he is being “cancel” lol
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by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:23 pm
Isn't the Preakness winner's trainer in California? I'd think some would choose his barn for relocation with the Preakness win and so many years of training with Pletcher. I thought Pletcher was in NY, so that's quite the move if that's the case for some of these owners.
Yes. I like Michael McCarthy A LOT. He just seems like a very authentic person. But he's fairly new. He didn't start having major success until 2018-2019, so he's a fairly new player in the training game. But I'd say he's definitely on the rise. For California owners, though, I suspect trainers like Doug O'Neill, John Sadler, and maybe a few others might be higher than McCarthy on their lists. But those names won't impress the other folks at the dinner party like Baffert (used to) or Pletcher.
::
I forgot to mention this tidbit... A few days ago, Baffert was also voted OFF of the Thoroughbred Owners of California board.
JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:23 pm
Isn't the Preakness winner's trainer in California? I'd think some would choose his barn for relocation with the Preakness win and so many years of training with Pletcher. I thought Pletcher was in NY, so that's quite the move if that's the case for some of these owners.
Yes. I like Michael McCarthy A LOT. He just seems like a very authentic person. But he's fairly new. He didn't start having major success until 2018-2019, so he's a fairly new player in the training game. But I'd say he's definitely on the rise. For California owners, though, I suspect trainers like Doug O'Neill, John Sadler, and maybe a few others might be higher than McCarthy on their lists. But those names won't impress the other folks at the dinner party like Baffert (used to) or Pletcher.
::
I forgot to mention this tidbit... A few days ago, Baffert was also voted OFF of the Thoroughbred Owners of California board.
by dryrunguy Um, talk about your terrible twos... This happened before a 2-year-old race last night in Japan... FYI, both of the horses involved are colts. I'm guessing the 11 will get the ultimate equipment change before his next start.
by ponchi101 Straight out of "Biological Exuberance".
by Omess
ponchi101 wrote:Straight out of "Biological Exuberance".
Poor guy , he got close then went for it …
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by Deuce Looks to me like a pretty basic reminder that horses are beautifully wild animals, and not things for humans to control for entertainment and profit.
by dryrunguy So, I have updates.
Danceswithbourbon continues to be a challenge. It's not her fault. We just can't figure out where to spot her next without incurring a high risk of her getting claimed. (Our partnership leader clearly has plans to keep her as a brood mare prospect in the future.) I want to bump her up in class a bit and take a stab at 8 or 8.5 furlongs on grass. But most of the discussion is leaning toward dropping her in class, staying on dirt, and risking the claim if need be. I keep saying I don't think she likes Indiana Grand, but that suggestion keeps getting poo-pooed.
Unified Dreams SHOULD start serious training in a months or two. Right now, he's just schooling and galloping and getting used to his new surroundings.
Rock Along's foot problem came back, so she is OUT of the Colleen (the Monmouth Stakes race I was so excited about). It's not serious; she just needs a little rest. Not sure where she'll go next.
Cryptic Creed has been a production of late. He started out training well on dirt, and then his works went south. Badly. So we shipped him over to a synthetic training track. That made a WORLD of difference and he clocked the fastest time at that distance (4 furlongs) that morning. So when he finally races, which should be soon, it will almost certainly be on turf. (Horses that like the synthetic tend to like turf, and his pedigree has solid turf influence.) He is headed to Ellis Park in KY soon.
Unconscious continues to progress. She doesn't have any published works yet. But I think she's getting close.
That's it for now.
by ponchi101 When you write UNCONSCIOUS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS, I don't know if you are writing about horses or it is a social critique
Glad to hear things are working. And I do hope you keep DWB. The offspring should be called "BourbonShots".
by dryrunguy We tried to enter Danceswithbourbon in another race at Indiana Grand for this week. I'll spare you the race details because only she and one other horse were entered. The race was cancelled.
The we tried to enter her in a race at Ellis Park on Saturday. Not enough entries. That race was also cancelled.
We'll just keep watching the condition books at about five different tracks.
::
Unified Dreams will begin serious training later this month/early August. If all goes well, he will race in September.
by dryrunguy Danceswithbourbon will race at Ellis Park ON TURF at 5.5 furlongs this Friday, July 16. It's a class drop. Total purse is $19.5K. She will be in for a claiming tag of $30K. This will be the first time she may race against older horses (older than 3). I don't like the condition or the claiming opportunity. But I like the fact we'll give turf a whirl very much. Many of the Outwork progeny love turf, and the Gone West influence in her dam's pedigree should help.
If only she was built like a traditional turf horse. But hey, you never know.
::
This coming Friday, we will enter Cryptic Creed in a 2-year-old MAIDEN CLAIMING race at Colonial Downs in Virginia for July 21. It will certainly fill. The race will be on turf at 5 furlongs. The purse will be $40K. The claiming price will also be $40K. This marks the first time the Shooting Star partnership has offered a horse for claim at its first outing. I could be wrong, but that tells me Saffie doesn't think much of Cryptic Creed--and the partner leadership is ready to cut its losses. Or maybe Saffie just assumes no one would claim him on his first out. Saffie is hard to read. And it's not like I get to talk to him directly, so I'm guessing.
As a handicapper, though, I am always very suspicious of first-time starters who are already up for the claim on their first out, especially when the training works have been paltry at best. That said, Saffie is smarter than I am, so... He may have a plan up his sleeve.
by ti-amie
by JazzNU Not surprised. In particular, NYRA didn't help their cause by banning all of his horses from Belmont, not just Medina Spirit or Bob himself and letting his other horses race with other trainers like the Preakness allowed. It's a harsh penalty without your own investigation or at least a failed in-state test. If racing was uniform across the country, it would've likely been fine, but all these independent state associations makes it seem like there's no single umbrella for much of any of it, i.e. he didn't violate the agreed upon NFL drug policy, just the NY Giants'.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 3:13 am
Not surprised. In particular, NYRA didn't help their cause by banning all of his horses from Belmont, not just Medina Spirit or Bob himself and letting his other horses race with other trainers like the Preakness allowed. It's a harsh penalty without your own investigation or at least a failed in-state test. If racing was uniform across the country, it would've likely been fine, but all these independent state associations makes it seem like there's no single umbrella for much of any of it, i.e. he didn't violate the agreed upon NFL drug policy, just the NY Giants'.
Yes, that's precisely the problem. No overarching body of governance. There has been a lot of talk about moving in that direction. Everyone says they want it. But when those people have any track- or state-specific power they may lose, then they don't want it anymore.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 15, 2021 5:55 pm
Yes, that's precisely the problem. No overarching body of governance. There has been a lot of talk about moving in that direction. Everyone says they want it. But when those people have any track- or state-specific power they may lose, then they don't want it anymore.
I'm sure it'll happen the moment they can make it more lucrative. So if there's like a TV contract on the table for a US Horse Racing League with a set schedule of races or something, that'll turn the tide. Until then, I'd imagine they'd be sacrificing influence and money. Because for certain state associations, I'm sure the related gambling money is too high to think about altering the current model.
by dryrunguy So, I can report that Danceswithbourbon absolutely LOVES running on grass.
She finished third, just a neck behind first and second. But she shot to the lead out of the gate and ran 22.1 in the first quarter. That's fast. She led the whole race until the last 10-15 feet. I was super proud of her. But I knew she was screwed the moment Matt Caruthers at TVG picked her to win just seconds before the race. She had a lot of support from the public. She went off as the third betting choice at 9/2. Her preliminary Equibase speed figure for the race is 82. That's 31 points faster than her previous race on dirt and 15 points faster than her best ever speed figure to date (67, all races on dirt).
The better news... She did NOT get claimed. So that's a relief. The winner, Miss Is Zippy, however, did get claimed for $30K.
So I think we've finally found her a home on grass. She ran with a beautiful and comfortable stride, much better than any of her previous performances. But my gut tells me she really does want more ground, and she'd probably prefer to sit off the pace and stalk rather than taking the lead. But since she's never gone as short as 5.5 furlongs before, I figured Jesus Castanon would hustle her out of the gate and force other horses to pass her.
A second place finish would have covered her barn bill, but $1950 isn't bad. That will pay a lot of bills, and she still has some cushion from her debut win purse. We're okay.
by Fastbackss I got excited when I saw that "midnightbourbon" was trending on Twitter and then I realized it was not the bourbon named horse I care about.
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 12:12 am
I got excited when I saw that "midnightbourbon" was trending on Twitter and then I realized it was not the bourbon named horse I care about.
Unfortunately, Midnight Bourbon was not trending for a good reason. At all. Fortunately, both Midnight Bourbon and his rider, Paco Lopez, are okay. Paco says he plans to ride again at Monmouth tomorrow in spite of falling off Midnight Bourbon in the stretch when the horse clipped heels with Hot Rod Charlie (who was veering in during the Haskell and ultimately disqualified after crossing the line first).
Sidebar: After Hot Rod Charlie was disqualified in the Haskell, Mandaloun was declared the winner. In case y'all have forgotten, Mandaloun finished second at the Kentucky Derby behind... Medina Spirit... and may ultimately declared the winner of that race as well. So that would be two Grade 1 races won by Mandaloun in the past 2.5 months where Mandaloun didn't cross the finish line first.
by dryrunguy In other news, Cryptic Creed's race for July 21 at Colonial Downs did not fill. I'm baffled as to why it didn't. They put the same race up again for Monday, July 26. We'll enter again on Wednesday. Hopefully, this time it will take.
If I read the condition book right, he'll make his debut in a maiden claiming race with a price tag of $30K. As a handicapper, I'm generally suspicious of this move. The thought I always have in my mind is, "He hasn't even run yet, and you're willing to let him get claimed? You're giving up already? Trying to cut your losses?"
But connections also play a lot of games in these situations. E.g., "He needs a race, he'll almost certainly NOT be claimed (in part of the perceived suspicions I stated in the previous paragraph), and a weak field full of horses that genuinely have no talent might be just what the doctor ordered."
I don't know which paragraph (2 or 3) is the actual case, but we'll see. Again, as a handicapper, I have seen a lot of horses that showed absolutely nothing in the morning training sessions but turn out to be something radically different in the afternoon or evening when they run in a race.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed is on his way to Colonial Downs in Virginia.
by JazzNU That's not that far. Are you going to this one or another one soon?
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:24 am
That's not that far. Are you going to this one or another one soon?
Do you mean me personally? As in, physically attending? I'll get to that in a bit.
::
Cryptic Creed got in the opener at Colonial Downs on Monday, July 26. It is a $50K maiden special weight race, so he will not be for sale. It will be a field of 8 colts running 5 furlongs on the turf.
These are 2-year-olds, so you never really know what to expect. Only two in the field have experience. But if you go by the connections and pedigrees alone, it's a brutal field. You have a $320K purchase by West Point Thoroughbreds, a much bigger and more lucrative partnership than either of the two I'm in, that's trained by Graham Motion, who excels on grass. There's a son of American Pharoah, which should adore the grass. There's another Graham Motion trainee and another trainee from Michael Stidham.
And then you have a horse that has run three times and done everything BUT win in all three starts (2 on dirt, 1 of grass) with 2 seconds and a third. He also happens to be a son of Jimmy Creed, just like Cryptic Creed.
::
Unfortunately, I cannot attend because I'm already stacked with meetings on Monday, have a proposal due Monday, and we're leaving Tuesday for Ohio to observe my mother's 80th birthday on July 29. But I'll watch it.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:41 am
Do you mean me personally? As in, physically attending? I'll get to that in a bit.
That's exactly what I mean, you're in a strange area that seems very remote because it is in a regular sense, but it's actually a doable road trip to plenty of areas so I just wondered if you were going to try to see the race in person this time. I don't know exactly where this place is, but there's no way it's over a 6 hour drive. The number of places worth visiting that are under a 6 hour drive from you is substantial, an odd quirk about your rural location.
Have a great time celebrating your mom's birthday.
by Ribbons Speaking of road trips -- Dry, what are the odds of your horsies making it to Keeneland in October? My honorary big brother lives in Lexington, and his hints about me coming up for a visit have become increasingly pointed (as in, he sent racehorse-themed socks for my birthday . . .).
by dryrunguy
Ribbons wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:54 pm
Speaking of road trips -- Dry, what are the odds of your horsies making it to Keeneland in October? My honorary big brother lives in Lexington, and his hints about me coming up for a visit have become increasingly pointed (as in, he sent racehorse-themed socks for my birthday . . .).
I'd say there's a very real possibility that could happen since all but one of them (Unconscious) are Kentucky-bred and both partnerships I'm in have roots in Kentucky. Rock Along is definitely good enough to be competitive at Keeneland, Danceswithbourbon MIGHT be, and Unified Dreams is still a question mark since he's just now starting training. But October is roughly the timeframe for when he should start to race, if his training goes well.
Cryptic Creed is probably a different story, which I will explain in a separate post. Unconscious is a Florida-bred, so she'll almost certainly do her running at Gulfstream or Tampa. But we're still being very patient with her.
Sidebar: I watched quite a bit of the 2020 Keeneland Fall Meeting. Just by seeing it on TV, I could see how picturesque it is, particularly that time of year, so it would have to be even more compelling in person. So, whether any of my horses make the trip or end up at Churchill instead, I'd encourage you to go--just for the scenery, especially the "burning bushes".
And FYI, while watching the Keeneland Fall Meeting last year, I swore to myself that I'd make the trip this year. So maybe we can get together for a TAT2 Tailgate.
by dryrunguy So, about Cryptic Creed...
Like I said before, when a horse is starting for the first time, you never know what to expect. You can only go by what a horse shows you. So in today's race at Colonial, here's what Cryptic Creed showed us:
1) He was 100% professional and looked great. He behaved perfectly, entered the gate as if he's done it 100 times, and broke pretty well.
2) He never raced and showed absolutely no speed or any sense of urgency. He just ran--like he was running in a half-circle with his friends. He didn't pick up his feet at all. He showed little to no interest in the task at hand despite appropriate urging from the rider (J.D. Acosta). It was almost as if he had no idea what he was doing there--or what he was supposed to do. Compare that to Rock Along or Bold Article last year. From the first pop out of the gate, both of them clearly understood why they were there.
3) As I expected and noted in my last post about this race, he was completely out-classed, especially by his paternal half-brother that had run three times and done everything BUT win. He finally got that win today--and in fairly impressive fashion. So at least we got to keep the win in the family, so to speak.
4) At least we didn't finish last (6th out of 7). But on a positive note, at least we didn't spend $320K for Cryptic Creed, which is what West Point Thoroughbreds spent on the horse that finished 4th. Ouch. And then you have the horse that finished 5th, Savage Sailor. I mean, good grief... A home-bred son of American Pharoah out of a Tapit mare (but she never raced) that was conceived back when American Pharoah's stud fee was $250K? I'd be sick to my stomach. But that's the way it work sometimes... You roll the dice and then those dice turn around and come back at you as bullets.
::
So, Cryptic Creed certainly deserves a few more attempts to see if the lightbulb goes off and things turn around. It might. In training, he really seemed to like the synthetic track, but the only synthetic track on the East coast or Midwest right now is Arlington outside of Chicago or Presque Isle in PA, which is a pretty low-level track. Saffie has never shipped horses to either track. Turfway Park in Kentucky won't open until December. Golden Gate is in California. The synthetic options are severely limited.
But if he doesn't turn around, then it would probably be in everyone's best interest to find a different career for him, maybe as a lead pony or as a teaser gelding. Because an Equibase speed figure of 19 won't even win you a maiden claiming race at Charles Town.
Yeah, it was THAT bad.
by ponchi101
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:11 pm
He didn't pick up his feet at all. He showed little to no interest in the task at hand despite appropriate urging from the rider (J.D. Acosta). It was almost as if he had no idea what he was doing there--or what he was supposed to do.
Easy fix: change his name to Nick Kyrgios and...
by Ribbons
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:35 pm
Sidebar: I watched quite a bit of the 2020 Keeneland Fall Meeting. Just by seeing it on TV, I could see how picturesque it is, particularly that time of year, so it would have to be even more compelling in person. So, whether any of my horses make the trip or end up at Churchill instead, I'd encourage you to go--just for the scenery, especially the "burning bushes".
And FYI, while watching the Keeneland Fall Meeting last year, I swore to myself that I'd make the trip this year. So maybe we can get together for a TAT2 Tailgate.
Hah! I literally ran in circles around Lexington as a kid (the horse park hosted major cross-country meets, including regional and state finals), so I'm familiar with the scenery. If you make it to Keeneland, we're buying you bourbon and burgoo inside, as I'm native enough to wear hat and heels to these things, plus the parking lot isn't close enough to the horsies or the betting stations. And you can then either talk Big Brother and his husband into betting on horsies with more going for them than musical theater or Southern Gothic names, or just join me in laughing at them.
And if you end up with entries at Churchill as well or instead, well, that's an easy drive from Nashville as well, and I'm still friends with a guy there who was my senior prom date. So.
by dryrunguy
Ribbons wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:52 pm
Hah! I literally ran in circles around Lexington as a kid (the horse park hosted major cross-country meets, including regional and state finals), so I'm familiar with the scenery. If you make it to Keeneland, we're buying you bourbon and burgoo inside, as I'm native enough to wear hat and heels to these things, plus the parking lot isn't close enough to the horsies or the betting stations. And you can then either talk Big Brother and his husband into betting on horsies with more going for them than musical theater or Southern Gothic names, or just join me in laughing at them.
And if you end up with entries at Churchill as well or instead, well, that's an easy drive from Nashville as well, and I'm still friends with a guy there who was my senior prom date. So.
I would totally talk them into betting. Hell, I'd probably convince them to put our money together and play a Pick 5 or Pick 6.
I play the free Super 5 every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It's a free shot at winning $5000 (or a share of it). Last fall they had it set up where the Super 5 was the last five races one day at Keeneland. So that's where I played the free Super 5 (you pick ONE horse to win each race in the sequence--only one) and also did a Pick 5 ticket where you can choose as many horses across five consecutive races as you can afford. It was the ONLY time I ever tried a Pick 5 at Keeneland--and I won it. The payout wasn't huge at all, about $200 IIRC, but hey, I made a profit.
::
The problem we'll run into is that I only know 3 or 4 days in advance if we actually get into most race. And at a track like Keeneland, it's common for 12 horses to get into a field with 4 additional Also Eligibles... But the Also Eligible horses ONLY get in ON RACE DAY if 4 horses from the main field scratch. So there can be some uncertainty around it. But hey, let's give it a shot.
Last year, a trip like this was out of the question. It's really nice to at least be able to entertain the idea.
And FYI, if we decide to meet up on a day when one of my horses is racing, I THINK I can get additional owner passes.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:11 pm
1) He was 100% professional and looked great. He behaved perfectly, entered the gate as if he's done it 100 times, and broke pretty well.
2) He never raced and showed absolutely no speed or any sense of urgency. He just ran--like he was running in a half-circle with his friends. He didn't pick up his feet at all. He showed little to no interest in the task at hand despite appropriate urging from the rider (J.D. Acosta). It was almost as if he had no idea what he was doing there--or what he was supposed to do. Compare that to Rock Along or Bold Article last year. From the first pop out of the gate, both of them clearly understood why they were there.
Yeah, it was THAT bad.
Kind of sounds like his behavior and instincts are a bit Cryptic.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:11 pm
Yeah, it was THAT bad.<>
Kind of sounds like his behavior and instincts are a bit Cryptic.
Well, he _is_ a descendant of Distorted Humor, and a cousin of Too Early, Fiftyshadesofhay, Rockpaperscissors, and Askin for a Baskin. (Although my favorite bloodline in that branch might be You're to Blame, son of Bon Jovi Girl.)
Yeah, I get it about the scheduling. It's far enough away that I can't bop over there every weekend (much less on weekdays), but it'll be a good time no matter what. Even though I'll probably won't have done enough homework for the fancier bets.(Winning enough in one go to require a W-2 is on the Someday List, but I am way, way, way out of practice.)
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, I may have been too quick to write off Cryptic Creed. Sometimes a horse has an excuse that you cannot see. Cryptic Creed actually had two of them.
The jockey told the trainer that Cryptic Creed "displaced twice" during the race. I had to do a little digging to learn what that meant. She here's an explanation:
"dorsal displacement of the soft palate: A condition in which the soft palate, located on the floor of the airway near the larynx, moves up into the airway. A minor displacement causes a gurgling sound during exercise while in more serious cases the palate can block the airway. This is sometimes known as choking down, but the tongue does not actually block the airway. The base of the tongue is connected to the larynx, of which the epiglottis is a part. When the epiglottis is retracted, the soft palate can move up into the airway (dorsal displacement.) This condition can sometimes be managed with equipment such as a figure eight noseband or a tongue tie. In more extreme cases, surgery might be required, most commonly a myectomy."
A figure eight noseband is actually what the trainer said we'll try in the next race. Not being able to breathe properly TWICE in a race would constitute a legitimate excuse.
by dryrunguy Two things to report.
First, Unified Dreams did his first official work early this morning at Churchill. He breezed 3 furlongs in 38.2 seconds. That's solid for a first work and not being pushed. He'll work again next weekend.
Second, Danceswithbourbon continues to have a helluva time getting her races to fill. We tried a race at Indiana Grand, but only one other horse was entered. So they killed the race. Then we tried another race at Presque Isle in Erie, PA on August 10. It didn't fill, either, but at least they held it over for a day. Then, sure enough, it filled, so she'll be in the sixth race at Presque Isle on August 11. Seven horses in the field. She'll break from gate #3.
This will be a different experience yet again. She'll be running 6 furlongs on the Tapeta (synthetic) surface--not dirt or turf. Tapeta is the same surface used at tracks like Arlington (Chicago), Golden Gate in San Francisco, and Woodbine in Toronto. It is considered an All Weather track that allows racing even in poor weather. For example, you can get 2 inches of rain on a Tapeta track, but you won't see a single puddle like you would on dirt. Don't ask me how that is possible, but that's how Tapeta works. The surface is dark gray--almost black--and looks radically different from what you see on a typical dirt track.
In general, horses that like turf will like the Tapeta and vice versa--though not always. So far, the Outwork babies seem to like to run on anything, so we'll see if DWB takes to it. It would be nice for her to have an additional array of racing options available to her in terms of surfaces.
Willie Martinez will be the rider. I don't know him at all. He has the third best winning percentage of the riders in the field (16%). We tried to get Antonio Gallardo because he rides a lot of Jordan Blair's horses at Tampa, but apparently he was already committed to another horse in the field.
Best of all, this is a $32K allowance race without an optional claiming provision, so we don't have to worry about losing her to a claim. No one in the field will be for sale. So that's a relief. DWB comes into the race with the fastest speed figure in the field in her previous race, but remember, that was on turf.
by dryrunguy So...
I'm not quite sure what happened with Danceswithbourbon's race today. I know this:
1) She broke very badly and got a little mugged on the break, so she got off to a bad start.
2) She was running rank on the backstretch, which she's never done before, either. I don't know if the jockey just couldn't handle her or...
3) SOMETHING happened with her equipment. After she passed a few horses going around the turn and looked like she was going to contend for the win, there was something flapping on her left side. I don't think it was the jockey's leg falling out of the iron. It looked like something else. I can't tell you what. It was bizarre.
So she finished 4th out of 6 and earned a check of $1600. That's short of the monthly barn bill, but it's a check. And she competed very well. She's never been in a position of breaking last and having to close, and she fought hard to pass horses before getting tired. So I admire that very much.
It was just a weird race. And I don't think the problem was the tapeta surface. SOMETHING happened with the equipment on her left side. And the handlers were fiddling with it A LOT before she left the paddock for the track. I'm anxious to hear what the jockey says.
She put up a preliminary speed figure of 68. That's 1 point better than her best dirt races and only 14 points off her last turf race. The poor break and extra 1/2 furlong probably account for that.
::
In other news, Antonio Gallardo, the jockey who passed on riding Danceswithbourbon in favor of a different horse, finished dead last. Tee hee...
And within seconds after DWB's race was over, they cancelled the last two races on the day's card due to heat.
::
Twinspire should post today's race recap for Presque Isle tomorrow or the day after. I'll post it when I see it so you all can see the nuttiness I am trying to describe here.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:57 am
Twinspire should post today's race recap for Presque Isle tomorrow or the day after. I'll post it when I see it so you all can see the nuttiness I am trying to describe here.
The Presque Isle race recap for yesterday has been posted. DWB was in the last race, which start at about 8:20.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed finally got into a second race. Colonial Downs, turf, 1 mile (!!), maiden claiming. He'll be in for a tag with a $20K purchase price. I'd be shocked if anyone nibbled. After his first race, there's no reason why anyone would want him unless they have some hope from his training work on synthetic a few months ago. I'd also be shocked if he went off at anything shorter than 50/1 after they leave the gate.
::
As a handicapper, I am prone to reading too much into things. But as it relates to Cryptic Creed, I am privy to internal correspondence.
I already posted here about his first race and how he "displaced" twice during his first race. It's a valid excuse. But my "read between the lines" from everything I have been told is that the partnership leadership has already given up on him. And I think it's telling that the listed trainer for both of his first two races is the head of the partnership, not Saffie Joseph. My interpretation is that Saffie wants nothing to do with Cryptic Creed, that Saffie gave up on him early on, and that such a bad horse could tarnish his swelling reputation.
I could be wrong, but that's my take. So I don't expect much on the 24th, even with the addition of the figure eight to keep the displacement from happening again.
But at quick glance, it's not exactly a stellar field, nor would you expect it to be for a group of 2-year-olds already up for a claim. We'll see.
by ti-amie
by JazzNU I'm glad he's okay. That damn near looks like an interstate, a very scary situation.
by dryrunguy I just turned on TVG after the women's final at Cincy. Apparently, the woes continue at Ellis Park. They had a fire in the receiving barn this morning. (That's where horses who ship in on race day stay if their trainer doesn't have stalls at Ellis. That was the case the day Danceswithbourbon raced at Ellis. She stayed in the receiving barn.) No injuries at all, but Ellis had to cancel today's card.
In other news, about the horse that got loose on the expressway (yes, it really IS a lot like an interstate)... She is a 2-year-old named Bold and Bossy. She was a first-time starter. According to connections on Twitter, the vet examined her and found nothing but minor cuts and scrapes.
Looks less like a fire and more like an inferno. Very scary, but fantastic there are no injuries.
So good to hear Bold and Bossy doesn't have any lasting damage.
by dryrunguy So, Cryptic Creed was SUPPOSED to race today. But apparently while in the paddock and being saddled for the race, the person tightening the saddle accidentally pinched him, which cause Cryptic Creed to sit (he's fine). But that's that. When a horse sits (or worse) in the paddock, the track veterinarian is required to scratch him from the race.
So, we're off to Plan B. I am hoping there's a way we can give him a chance to run on the synthetic at either Presque Isle or Arlington. Each of them have at least another month before racing ends at those tracks.
by JazzNU Is there a story behind his name @dry? I can't make sense of it, besides it possibly having a backup name of Agnostic.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:46 pm
Is there a story behind his name @dry? I can't make sense of it, besides it possibly having a backup name of Agnostic.
I don't know where the Cryptic part comes from. But the Creed part comes from being a son of Jimmy Creed. I'm guessing the heads of the partnership wanted to play on the Cr/Cr alliteration.
by dryrunguy So, this just happened a few minutes ago in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga. Heading toward the wire, Firenze Fire basically tried to eat Yaupon's face. I've seen biting attempts down the stretch. But I've never seen a horse go full Hannibal Lechter.
by ti-amie Was it something Yaupon said?! I've never seen that before during a race.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:32 pm
Was it something Yaupon said?! I've never seen that before during a race.
The general consensus on Twitter is that all of us have seen an attempted bite in the stretch before. But THAT was something unlike anything before because of the long duration.
It's also a really good thing that Yaupon's tongue was hanging out of the left side of his mouth rather than his right. Can you imagine if Firenze Fire had managed to get hold of Yaupon's tongue?
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:32 pm
Was it something Yaupon said?! I've never seen that before during a race.
The general consensus on Twitter is that all of us have seen an attempted bite in the stretch before. But THAT was something unlike anything before because of the long duration.
It's also a really good thing that Yaupon's tongue was hanging out of the left side of his mouth rather than his right. Can you imagine if Firenze Fire had managed to get hold of Yaupon's tongue?
Oh wow. What a horrible thought.
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by dryrunguy Danceswithbourbon will race at Kentucky Downs on September 9. Remember, that's the track with the super-funky configuration (see below). It'll be 6.5 furlongs on turf, $43,200 purse, claiming price of $30K. Jesus Castanon will be back on board. She'll break from Gate 9 in a field of 12.
I like her chances a lot based on my initial look at the field, though I'm worried 6.5 furlongs MIGHT be longer than she wants to go at this point. But if anyone can properly pace her, it's Castanon. But at Kentucky Downs, you never know how well a horse will take to that turn. Bold Article didn't handle it well when she ran at Kentucky Downs last year.
kentucky-downs-track-layout-54.jpg
by Fastbackss So do races on a track like that get "removed" or an asterisk in a horse's rating? I feel like that would be too much of an outlier
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Thu Sep 09, 2021 3:12 am
So do races on a track like that get "removed" or an asterisk in a horse's rating? I feel like that would be too much of an outlier
No. Handicappers have to process all of this information in the back of their heads. KY Downs is different because of its odd shape. CharlesTown is different because it is a shorter oval than most tracks. Fonner Park is an even smaller oval, hence many people call it a bullring because it is almost circular.
But we have to jump those mental hoops all the time. For example, a 1-mile dirt race at Gulfstream park is a 1-turn mile while a 1-mile race at Santa Anita or Churchill is a 2-turn mile.
And sometimes, it actually adds to the intrigue. Take a horse like Sleepy Eyes Todd. In 2020, he won four races--all on dirt. But here's how different they were:
1) He won the Gus Fonner Stakes at Fonner Park at 1 1/16 miles--that's a four-turn race
2) He won the CharlesTown Classic at CharlesTown at 1 1/8 miles--that's a three-turn race (I think)
3) He won the Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland at 7 furlongs--that's a one-turn race
4) He won the Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream at 7 furlongs--also a one-turn race
Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to duplicate those accomplishments in 2021, but what he accomplished in 2020 was pretty astounding.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:00 pm
Danceswithbourbon will race at Kentucky Downs on September 9. Remember, that's the track with the super-funky configuration. It'll be 6.5 furlongs on turf, $43,200 purse, claiming price of $30K. Jesus Castanon will be back on board. She'll break from Gate 9 in a field of 12.
So, that didn't go well at all. KY Downs is a crapshoot. You never know who's going to love it and who's going to hate it. DWB definitely fell into the latter category. Maybe it was the turn, maybe it was the taller grass, maybe it was the downhill portion of the course, maybe 6.5 furlongs is too far for her, or maybe she was just outclassed. Or some combination of those. I have no idea. But long story short, she only beat one horse. And she looked uncomfortable the whole time. The good news is she did not get claimed. No one did.
EDIT: Here's the chart of the race: https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartE ... y=USA&rn=2. It's not on the chart, but Equibase has assigned a preliminary speed figure of 52 for this race. That's her second slowest race ever and 30 points off her speed figure on turf at Ellis. So, yeah... Hated it!
by dryrunguy The past week has not been kind to my horses.
Danceswithbourbon did a training work on Tuesday. She ran fine but did not come out of the work well. It turns out she has a small fracture. It is not life-threatening at all. But it is definitely a career-ending injury. So now the partnership has to figure out what to do with her. We have limited options. After she heals, we can: 1) try to sell her privately; 2) try to sell her at the Keeneland Sale in January; or 3) some of the folks in the partnership could get together and buy her as a brood mare. So, we'll see.
Unified Dreams did a training work last Saturday--his first from the gate. The figure was pretty good (48.6 at 4 furlongs--7th fasted of the 2-year-olds at that distance). Unfortunately, a few days later, he started to show signs of soreness. The x-ray revealed an ankle chip. It is not career-ending, and it is not displaced, but it WILL require minor surgery. So he will be out and unable to resume training until about December or January at the earliest. This is not uncommon.
So, yeah. Not a good week. At all.
by ti-amie
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 09, 2021 4:04 pm
The past week has not been kind to my horses.
Danceswithbourbon did a training work on Tuesday. She ran fine but did not come out of the work well. It turns out she has a small fracture. It is not life-threatening at all. But it is definitely a career-ending injury. So now the partnership has to figure out what to do with her. We have limited options. After she heals, we can: 1) try to sell her privately; 2) try to sell her at the Keeneland Sale in January; or 3) some of the folks in the partnership could get together and buy her as a brood mare. So, we'll see.
Unified Dreams did a training work last Saturday--his first from the gate. The figure was pretty good (48.6 at 4 furlongs--7th fasted of the 2-year-olds at that distance). Unfortunately, a few days later, he started to show signs of soreness. The x-ray revealed an ankle chip. It is not career-ending, and it is not displaced, but it WILL require minor surgery. So he will be out and unable to resume training until about December or January at the earliest. This is not uncommon.
So, yeah. Not a good week. At all.
by Fastbackss Ugh
by dryrunguy I have tasted the highs. I have tasted the headscratching. Now I have tasted the heartache (which isn't nearly as bad as it can be).
I'm not 100% sure I am cut out for this.
by ti-amie
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:34 am
I have tasted the highs. I have tasted the headscratching. Now I have tasted the heartache (which isn't nearly as bad as it can be).
I'm not 100% sure I am cut out for this.
Whatever happens you can say you tried. That's better than not trying at all.
by ponchi101 Due to your posts, Dry, I really have come to like DWB. I hope you guys will find her a great place to spend the rest of her life.
Sorry to hear this news. Hope you are fine.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:34 am
I have tasted the highs. I have tasted the headscratching. Now I have tasted the heartache (which isn't nearly as bad as it can be).
I'm not 100% sure I am cut out for this.
I think this has been good for you. Whether or not you stick with it is another story, but I think the experience has been a good one even if it has come with some disappointment and heartbreak. Sort of like not every person is meant to be in your life forever, sometimes there are only meant to be there to teach you the lessons you needed to learn, not every experience is meant to be a long lasting one. I think "not cut out for it" is the wrong way to frame it. You gained life experience by doing this, but it may not be the best fit for you long term. And there's nothing wrong with that.
by dryrunguy Damn it. Just when I thought I had pretty much decided I'd skip doing partnerships next year, Shooting Star sent out its flyer for the 2022 syndicate.
Three horses again, but for the first time, one is a gray filly.
by ponchi101 And... what is a gray filly?
A horse that is... gray? (you have to explain that one )
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:49 pm
And... what is a gray filly?
A horse that is... gray? (you have to explain that one )
Yes, a gray horse. They are my favorites. Other types of thoroughbreds are chestnut (a red/brown color--see Triple Crown Winner, Justify) or bay (dark brown color, see American Pharoah). Every now and then, you also see the super rare white thoroughbred (caused by a gene) or black thoroughbred.
Gray horses are interesting. If you see a gray thoroughbred, you know at least one parent was also a gray. If you mate a chestnut with a bay, you cannot get a gray foal.
Another fun fact about grays... If you mate a gray stallion to a gray mare, not only are you guaranteed to get a gray foal; every baby that foal goes on to sire or give birth to will also be gray. It is a genetic certainty. The same is not true if you breed two chestnut horses or two bay horses.
by dryrunguy Rock Along will return to the races Friday, November 19 in Race 6 (claiming price of $50K) at Churchill on DIRT at 5.5 furlongs with Florent Gereaux riding again. I all-capped dirt because she has only raced on turf to date. Her last race, which she won back in May with Florent on board, was 5 furlongs on turf. So she's stretching out a little bit more and switching surfaces. There's a chance of rain in the forecast in Louisville on Thursday morning, but if the forecast holds, it should be a good to fast dirt track.
She has been training very well (on dirt). At quick glance, there appears to be a decent amount of speed in the race. Speed is what got her the win in her last race, but this time she'll have company.
She also won't be the only one returning to the races after a long layoff. And that may not be all bad because most of the horses that have run recently have been running poorly.
Saffie Joseph is no longer listed as her trainer. Instead, the head of our partnership is listed as the trainer. I am not sure what that is about. Maybe Saffie has decided he's too big and too important for our small-scale britches. No matter. I have full confidence in Mary.
by dryrunguy Well, Rock Along's race went pretty much as expected. I was concerned about the amount of speed in this race, and that was justified. Rock Along was the speed of the speed and led for most of the race, but coming down the stretch, she began to weaken and got passed by horses that ran most of the race mid-pack. She finished sixth of nine. At this point in her development, she's a 5 furlong horse. Anything longer is too long for her--at least for now.
Given the quality of the field, it was a respectable performance, especially given the fact that she had not raced for 6 months.
Rock Along was not claimed (price was $50K), but three other horses were. Again, that underscores the quality of the field at a time of year when a lot of barns are hoping their 2-year-olds get claimed so they can make room for yearlings that will start racing early next year. And in all three cases, the three horses that were claimed went from one good barn to another good barn. Yup, it was a good field.
by dryrunguy 2021 Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, passed away suddenly this morning after a brief, light work at Santa Anita. There was no injury. He just collapsed after the work was over and had already expired by the time veterinarians reached him.
Ray Pollack reports a full autopsy will be performed. Track veterinarians will also collect hair samples and, hopefully, collect urine samples as well. His most recent race was a second place finish in the Breeder's Cup Classic at Del Mar the first Saturday in November. I saw that race. He looked fine and galloped out well.
by ti-amie
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:11 pm
2021 Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, passed away suddenly this morning after a brief, light work at Santa Anita. There was no injury. He just collapsed after the work was over and had already expired by the time veterinarians reached him.
Ray Pollack reports a full autopsy will be performed. Track veterinarians will also collect hair samples and, hopefully, collect urine samples as well. His most recent race was a second place finish in the Breeder's Cup Classic at Del Mar the first Saturday in November. I saw that race. He looked fine and galloped out well.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:11 pm
2021 Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, passed away suddenly this morning after a brief, light work at Santa Anita. There was no injury. He just collapsed after the work was over and had already expired by the time veterinarians reached him.
Ray Pollack reports a full autopsy will be performed. Track veterinarians will also collect hair samples and, hopefully, collect urine samples as well. His most recent race was a second place finish in the Breeder's Cup Classic at Del Mar the first Saturday in November. I saw that race. He looked fine and galloped out well.
Quite shocking and very sad. But relieved that it happened without a crowd there, I remain traumatized by Eight Belles' death.
Also, for real, had no idea Medina Spirit was officially still the Derby winner.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:11 pm
2021 Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, passed away suddenly this morning after a brief, light work at Santa Anita. There was no injury. He just collapsed after the work was over and had already expired by the time veterinarians reached him.
Ray Pollack reports a full autopsy will be performed. Track veterinarians will also collect hair samples and, hopefully, collect urine samples as well. His most recent race was a second place finish in the Breeder's Cup Classic at Del Mar the first Saturday in November. I saw that race. He looked fine and galloped out well.
Also, for real, had no idea Medina Spirit was officially still the Derby winner.
My understanding is that Medina Spirit's status as the Derby winner is still up in the air.
I am not sure where it fits into everything, but 2-year-olds are now starting to rack up 2022 Kentucky Derby points. But Baffert's 2-year-olds are excluded from the list. I'm not quite sure what this is about. My best guess is that it is a Churchill thing. Last I heard, Baffert is still banned there.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed will finally make his return to racing Sunday in the 10th race at Gulfstream Park. It will be on Gulfstream's new synthetic track, and he will go 1 mile and 70 yards--that's significantly longer than his first race (5 furlongs), so we'll see how that goes. It is a field of 11, and Cryptic Creed will break from the 10th gate--that's bad luck. Claiming price will be $16,000. He has been training well. All things considered, I'm hoping for a claim, but I'd be shocked if that happened. A good result on Sunday, however, could set the stage for a private purchase. We hope to sell him by the end of the year.
We're just waiting for the right race for Unconscious--she's ready to go. Unified Dreams should resume training in January and run his first race in February--probably at Tampa Bay Downs.
::
In other news, Danceswithbourbon will be entered in the Keeneland January Sale. We'll set a reserve on her (minimum acceptable purchase price) and hope we get it. If she doesn't command that price, we'll go to Plan B--trying to arrange a private purchase.
::
Meanwhile, you may remember the first two horses of which I owned shares and were sold privately in late 2020/early 2021. Tiz the Dude has retired from racing and now resides in Texas with an owner who just happens to be a veterinary assistant. That's a good deal for him. Bold Article remains in California. She ran 4 or 5 times for Vladimir Cerin at Santa Anita and Del Mar, but she never really fired for him. He couldn't figure her out. Plus, he was running her in races that were simply too tough for her.
In her last race at Santa Anita, she was claimed by a new trainer from northern California--Craig Dollase. I was fairly pleased to see this development because I've seen many of the Constitution babies do very well on synthetic tracks like Golden Gate. Sure enough, she finished second in her first race, third in her second race, and then on November 28 she finally won for the first time since November 26, 2020. She was claimed again, this time for $8000, after that race by a guy named Jack Steiner. I don't know much about him. But he seems to win a lot. If he's smart, he'll keep her right where she is and bump her up in class a little, maybe the $12,500 level.
There. Now everything is up-to-date.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed didn't just win his race. He won GOING AWAY! I am in shock. Complete and utter shock. I'll post the link as soon as Gulfstream's YouTube channel posts it.
by dryrunguy Still in shock! Good shock! Cryptic Creed is the 10 horse that stalked and pressured in second until the turn. The favorite, #1, got stuck on the rail off the pace and never had anywhere to go until it was too late. Phenomenal ride by Jesus Rios.
by Fastbackss When do you find out who claimed him?
(And also he won going away despite getting heading far from the rail)
by ti-amie Wow dry! Great race by Cryptic Creed and great work by his jockey. #proud
by JazzNU Awesome @dry! And I hope you put something down when it was 21-1.
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 12:24 am
When do you find out who claimed him?
(And also he won going away despite getting heading far from the rail)
For some levity, it was a VERY slow race. The leader went 25.2 in the opening quarter mile. That is BEYOND pedestrian. But it was probably exactly what Cryptic Creed needed to finish the way he did. It was a large field, but it was not a good field. And that's not uncommon for a 2-year-old maiden claiming race where the connections have already given up on horses and want to sell them.
Now, he has no choice but to face other winners. Which will be a tall order given that his preliminary speed figure came in at only 55. But that is a dramatic improvement over the 19 speed figure he produced on his debut (when he accidentally started to swallow his tongue--twice).
He is a very confusing critter. I will guess that the leaders of the partnership will try to find him a race in the next 2-3 weeks at Gulfstream. At what distance or level? Good grief, I have no clue.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 2:46 am
Awesome @dry! And I hope you put something down when it was 21-1.
I had $2 on Cryptic Creed. Paid $45 and change.
When I put my bet in about 2 minutes before the race, he was 35/1.
by Fastbackss Shows how much is involved when the winner isn't claimed. Fun to read these synopses
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed has been sold privately for $16000--the same claiming price as the race where he won. The buyer is trainer William Therranos. I know nothing about him. The head of the partnership stated the plan is for Therranos to race him at Gulfstream through the winter, after which he will move to Woodbine outside of Toronto for their spring meet. Woodbine only has synthetic and turf tracks, so the synthetic track should suit Cryptic Creed quite nicely.
Tomorrow, Rock Along and Unconscious will be entered in races on 12/23 at Gulfstream. I'll fill you in with more details once I see cuts of the races and can verify they were entered in the races I THINK they'll be entered in.
by ponchi101 Good news, Dry. Hope Cryptic Creed will become very successful.
by dryrunguy Just looked at the cut of Unconscious' first race on 12/23. It will be in the opener at Gulfstream on that day's card--5 furlongs on the tapeta (synthetic), field of 8 maidens, she'll break from the 6 spot in the gate, claiming price of $16000. That's probably the right level for her. Unconscious will be one of two first-time starters in the field. There is one second-time starter in the field, and as we all saw with Cryptic Creed, you always have to watch out for a second-time starter, though that horse was even worse on debut than Cryptic Creed was. Of the others in the field, there are three in decent form, but none of those are unbeatable. It looks like a good spot for her. Silvestre Gonzalez will ride. I don't know much about him. He typically rides at Parx outside of Philadelphia. He's been very successful there, and he's 2/8 at Gulfstream this year. He only rides at Gulfstream when there's no racing at Parx.
Rock Along will run later that same day in Race 8. It will also be 5 furlongs on the tapeta (her first race on the surface), claiming price of $35000, field of 9. She'll break from Gate 7. Silvestre Gonzalez will ride her as well. She won't be the lone speed this time--at least I don't think so--and the rest of the speed will be to her inside, which is not a good thing. She could be wide on the turn or even sitting off the pace, which she's never had to do. But she's getting significant class relief, and she might like the tapeta even more than turf or dirt.
In any case, it'll be an interesting day... I've already blocked off those times on my work calendar so no one can schedule me for meetings at post times.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed will race again today for his new connections--Race 9 at Gulfstream, synthetic, 1 mile and 70 yards, starter optional claiming. Jesus Rios will ride again, and they'll break from the fifth hole in the gate. I don't know if Cryptic Creed will be for sale or not (it would be $16000 again). I'd have to buy the past performances to know that. The total purse of the race is $38000, so that's a higher purse than his last race. Plus, he's facing other winners for the first time. The morning line has Cryptic Creed at 8/1--the longest shot in the race. That's probably about right. But that also suggests the person who made the morning line (Pete Aielo, also the track announcer at Gulfstream) thinks the race is pretty wide open.
You may be thinking, "Why is he running again so soon? Just 10 days after his first win?" The main reason why they new connections would do this is because, based on his last race, they may think the light bulb in on, so they might as well try to capitalize on it. That said, it is very common for a horse to regress after winning a race, so I am not sure what to expect.
I will say this... There is only one horse in the field with early speed, and he's what I would call "cheap speed"... That's when a horse goes as fast as it can for as long as it can--and will hopefully just get too far ahead for the rest to catch him. But if that horse (Wild Irishman) couldn't keep the lead in his last race at 7 furlongs, I don't know why 1 mile and 70 yards would be any better for him. But they'll send him to the front, no doubt, because Emisael Jaramillo is riding. He's the "go to" guy at Gulfstream if you want to get the lead.
On paper, the two favorites, Panorama Truck (3/1) and Venezuelan Triumph (7/2), deserve to be the favorites. They come out of a common race where they finished 4th and 5th, respectively, only a little over a length apart, facing other winners for the first time. Their speed figures in their last race (74 and 72, respectively), which was at this distance, are by far the best in the field. Cryptic Creed only put up a 55 in his win. That's how weak his field was.
But hey, if Cryptic Creed improves again as much as he did between his first and second races, anything is possible--especially since the only speed in the race is cheap speed that will almost certainly fade.
We'll see. Post time is 4:32 EST.
by dryrunguy Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.
Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:49 pm
Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.
Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.
How many lengths back did Creed finish from Triumph?
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:49 pm
Cryptic Creed ran fourth out of six. He broke poorly and started the race at the back of the field, which was not what he wanted. But he gained a good bit of ground on the backstretch and finished evenly. The morning line favorites went first and second, though this time Venezuelan Triumph turned the tables on Panorama Truck and beat him.
Not at all an embarrassing outing for Cryptic, though. He just has to get out of the gate better next time.
How many lengths back did Creed finish from Triumph?
But Cryptic Creed's speed figure improved slightly over his last race--up from 55 to 59. That figure could change. But it indicates he did not regress. In comparison, Venezuelan Triumph's preliminary speed figure came in at 75.
The chart also shows that no one in the race was in for a claim. That's interesting for a group of 2-year-olds at this point in the year.
by dryrunguy Video of the race is up.
by JazzNU Only came in second, but Panorama felt like the real winner there. Ran a great race to close the gap beautifully in the last 1/4.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:56 am
Only came in second, but Panorama felt like the real winner there. Ran a great race to close the gap beautifully in the last 1/4.
Yeah, they flip-flopped compared to their common race--the last race for both of them before today. In that race (https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartE ... y=USA&rn=6), Panorama Truck was more forwardly placed than Venezuelan Triumph, but Venezuelan Triumph closed ground at the end to lose by only 1 1/4 length.
This time, Venezuelan Triumph was more forward, and Panorama Truck gained ground to get up for second, losing by 2 3/4. In fairness, the chart for today's race indicates the 1, 2, and 3 horses all bumped each other at the break, so that could have compromised Panorama Truck's start.
Same jocks on both horses in both races. Those types of things really fascinate me.
Plus, I know you like a closer, so I'm not surprised by your take on it.
Eternal Rest (the 3) was the one that surprised me. He improved significantly since his last race. I'd bet him in his next out if the speed scenarios are right.
by dryrunguy Unconscious made a solid debut and finished third--about 5.5 lengths behind the winner. She had the lead until the top of the stretch, at which point she started to tire and got passed on the inside and outside. Not bad for a horse the bettors had at 16/1 at post time.
by dryrunguy And here's the race. Unconscious is the 6.
by dryrunguy It's pretty safe to say that Rock Along doesn't much care for the tapeta. She finished 7th of 9.
by dryrunguy Kentucky Derby prep alert... 2-year-old Flightline put in a FREAKISH performance in the Grade 1 Malibu at Santa Anita today. In his first two races at 6 furlongs, he put up Equibase speed figures of 116 and 130 winning at 13 1/4 lengths an 12 3/4 lengths respectively. I have NEVER seen a 130 speed figure. NEVER.
Today in the Malibu, he went 7 furlongs. It was a royal ass-kicking. Again. Today he won at 11 1/2 lengths and looked eager to take another lap around the track.
Absolutely freakish. And I buy it. He's not a Baffert horse. He's a John Sadler horse owned by West Point Thoroughbreds.
by dryrunguy About Flightline's race yesterday in the Malibu, he put up an Equibase speed figure of 127. That's insane.
by dryrunguy Rock Along has been sold privately for a paltry $14000. Apparently she did not come out of her last race well. The injury is fairly minor, but it will take time to heal. It is unclear if she will race again. The buyer (I don't know who it is) is buying her primarily as a brood mare prospect. But she's at least a year away from being ready to breed. I am really quite disappointed that the partnership sold her so cheap, but perhaps selling her now is the more prudent option compared to racking up huge vet and boarding fees that would probably come close to equaling what she's really worth--with nothing coming in.
Unconscious will race again in about 3 weeks. She came out of her last race just fine. BTW, the winner of that race set a new track record for that distance and surface. That said, the tapeta synthetic track at Gulfstream has only been around for a few months, so I wouldn't put much stock in that.
by dryrunguy A few updates.
Danceswithbourbon will go through the sale ring at Keeneland on Thursday, January 13. I don't know what RNA (Reserve Not Attained--that's a fancy way of saying minimum sales price) has been set on her. Whatever the RNA is, if she fetches that price or more, she sells. If she doesn't get a bid that high, then we keep her. She is being sold as a brood mare prospect rather than a horse of racing age. She is Hip #1295 out of about 1500 horses scheduled to go through the ring between now and Thursday.
Unconscious will also race for the second time on Thursday, Race 5 at Gulfstream, 5.5 furlongs on the tapeta. Claiming price is $16000. I think she looks good in this spot. I see only one other horse with experience in the field that might beat her. That said, I am not wild about the extra half furlong since she was a speed and fade runner in her debut, but she should have more endurance this time. Also, there's the issue of the other second-time starters (remember what Cryptic Creed did in his second start?), not to mention the first-time starters. They are basically unknowns, so you can only go by the quality of the connections, auction prices (if any), the published training works, and the pedigree. But all in all, I think she looks pretty live in this spot. We'll see.
by ponchi101 Good luck.
The world of horse racing does not cease to amaze me. To say it is complex is a serious understatement.
by dryrunguy My mistake. DWB will not go through the sales ring until TOMORROW (Friday). I watched a bit of the sale this morning. A lot of the horses are selling very, very cheap (e.g., $4000). But every once in a while, one will come in and sell for some astronomical price. For example, a pregnant mare sold for $480,000 about 10 minutes ago. I have a feeling, we'll be keeping DWB, unless we can manage a private sale.
Meanwhile, the guy who does the morning line at Gulfstream put Unconscious at 8/1. He has a first-time starter as the morning line favorite. The filly I thought was in the best position to beat Unconscious is 15/1. So either I am missing something (which is totally possible as I have not checked any of the training works for the horses in the field), or Pete completely botched the morning line for that race (which is also possible; a lot of folks are critical of the job Pete does in making the morning line). I'll take a closer look later. Post time is 2:31 EST. Jesus Rios will ride--that's the same guy who rode Cryptic Creed to his maiden win.
by Fastbackss I like that you know the name of the guy making the lines haha
"GD it Pete, not again!"
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:47 pm
I like that you know the name of the guy making the lines haha
"GD it Pete, not again!"
Ha! Yes, Pete Aielo. He's also the track announcer at Gulfstream and is without a doubt one of the most entertaining race callers in the U.S. My favorite is when you have a wall of about 5 horses neck and neck down the stretch, and Pete screams, "Who do you like here?!?!?!?!?!?!?" He's also not afraid to have fun with the horses' names during the call.
::
Unconscious ran well today but could not hold off the 3 horse. She finished 4 1/2 lengths behind War of Ages (a second-time starter ridden by Paco Lopez) and it was a dead heat for second with the 7, a first-time starter. The horse I liked that was 15/1 on the morning line went off as the post-time favorite at 3/1. But she finished WAY back in sixth. So maybe Pete was right and the bettors were wrong! Unfortunately, the dead heat really sapped her check because the purse money for second and third had to be split in two. So her check will only be $3450 minus the trainer and jockey fees.
Unconscious was the only horse claimed. The price was $16000. She was purchased by an outfit called Soldi Stables with Gilberto Zerpa listed as the new trainer. He wins races at a 20% clip, so it is a well-respected barn at Gulfstream. That said, he did get suspended for 10 days back in October for a medication violation, so that's a little concerning. But so did four other trainers, and they all have impeccable reputations. It could have been accidental.
So that's the end of the 2021 Shooting Star syndicate (the cheap horse syndicate). I will lose money again, though I'm not sure how much. I think it will pay out slightly better than 2020.
::
Unfortunately, there was an incident during Unconscious' race. She took the lead from the gate, but there was a horse right behind her and to the inside. I have no idea what happened, but the jockey of the 4, Miguel Vasquez, fell off the horse for what appeared to be no reason. The horse never stumbled and was fine. But, since the 4 was close to the lead, that means there were about 8 horses behind her, so Miguel was in serious danger of getting trampled or causing an accident. Fortunately, all the other horses missed him, probably because he fell close to the rail.
Miguel was treated by the ambulance and then taken by wheelchair for further evaluation and treatment. Later, it was reported that the horse he was riding kicked the top of his helmet. So he was lucky.
I'll post the video once it's available on YouTube.
by dryrunguy Here's today's race. They deleted the part where Miguel was dismounted.
First, though, I need to explain to you how the various tracks are currently working at Gulfstream. Because it's a pip, and it underscores why Unconscious pretty much lost any chance to win while on the backstretch.
The TURF course at Gulfstream is playing very fair. You can win gate-to-wire, or you can close from the skies. It's very fair.
The DIRT course is strongly favoring inside speed or speed from the outside that can get out to the lead and claim the rail. It's not the ONLY way to win on the dirt at Gulfstream, but there's definitely a rail bias.
The SYNTHETIC course is pretty much the opposite. If you get the lead on the backstretch, there's basically no chance you'll be able to keep it. Someone, or a group of someones, will pass you. And that's exactly what happened today. Plus, you want to stay off the rail on the stretch. You want to be at least 2 or 3 paths off the rail. This part, Unconscious got pretty close to right. She was out in about path 3 or so. But she didn't have enough left to finish the last 1/2 furlong or so, an that left room for Paco to pass her on the outside and then move inside to the best path off the rail. Unconscious was visibly tired during the last 1/2 furlong or so.
by Fastbackss Is the syndicate happy that unconscious was claimed?
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:34 am
Is the syndicate happy that unconscious was claimed?
Yes. The objective of the 2021 syndicate was to sell the horses by or around the end of the year and to pay out to the investors.
I will qualify that by saying I am NOT happy with the price at which Rock Along was sold.
::
That said, I think the syndicate is learning. The 2022 syndicate has been changed. The 2-year-olds will stay in the syndicate until June 2023, so it will include part of their 3-year-old season. It will better accommodate horses that need more time and give them more time to race and develop.
It is an experiment. I do not know if it will work. But I appreciate the experimentation.
And the fact there's a gray filly in the 2022-2023 syndicate appeals to me. More than it should.
by ti-amie I have always loved gray horses. I used to follow horse racing just to see the beautiful animals run when I was much younger.
by dryrunguy Well, I can report that the RNA for Danceswithbourbon was $15000--and she didn't get it. So back to square 1.
by dryrunguy I just won the late Pick 5 at Oaklawn Park. Easily the biggest score of my short betting career. It wasn't easy. I survived a jockey objection and a snotbubble photo finish. But the stars aligned.
by dryrunguy Popcorn Deelights, the horse that played Seabiscuit in the movie Seabiscuit, passed away this morning at Old Friends Farm in Kentucky. He was 24 years old.
by ponchi101 That is sad.
What is the normal longevity for horses? I don't know if 24 is a long life in equine terms.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:39 am
That is sad.
What is the normal longevity for horses? I don't know if 24 is a long life in equine terms.
1997 Kentucky Derby winner, Silver Charm, is 28 and doing well at Old Friends Farm after he was retired from stud.
A. P. Indy, probably the greatest sire of the last 2 decades, lived to be 31 before he died in 2020. I believe he stopped servicing mares shortly after he turned 20.
Meanwhile, Tapit, a paternal grandson of A. P. Indy who never won a Triple Crown race but won the Wood Memorial, is 21 and still commands a $185,000 stud fee.
But some horses die fairly young. For example, the great Arrogate died when he was only 7 after siring only one full crop of foals and part of another. His last foals are yearlings now.
Mares tend to live as long as male horses, but they're not always as able to keep producing foals as long as stallions can sire them.
Generally, 20 years is a good life for a horse. 30 is exceptional.
by dryrunguy Apprentice jockey Abdul Alsagoor scored his first win today at Santa Anita. His story is a tough one to read (https://www.paulickreport.com/features/ ... come-true/). But he persevered, and today it finally paid off.
And you all know what your first win gets you...
by dryrunguy It's official. Medina Spirit has been disqualified from his win in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
Ridiculous that it took so long that Medina Spirit has actually passed away in the meantime. No one is going to remember the declared winner with this amount of time between race and disqualification.
by dryrunguy The whole thing is sad. I feel badly for the people who bred Medina Spirit, let him go at auction for $1000, and then THOUGHT they had bred a Derby winner. They didn't do anything wrong.
Meanwhile, I can report that a lawsuit has been filed by the people who bet Mandaloun in the Derby. They want their payout. It won't happen, but still... Some of those folks bet thousands on him. (More money than sense.)
by dryrunguy On a more positive note, this marks the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby that a stallion--Into Mischief--sired consecutive winners. And he is very well-represented among the present 2022 3-year-old crop of contenders.
by dryrunguy Both Unconscious and Cryptic Creed raced today at Gulfstream. Both won for their new connections/new jockeys (Jose Ortiz and Edwin Gonzalez, respectively). Both were dropping in class (down from $16000 to $12500 claiming price). Neither was claimed. Both races were on the synthetic.
Unconscious won her 5-furlong race leading gate to wire and finished 3 1/2 lengths ahead of second best. So her next race will be her first against other winners. She also improved her speed figure compared to her previous race, same distance (up from 48 to 71). Here's the chart of her race: https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/p ... 22USA1.pdf.
Cryptic Creed sat off the pace for most of his race, found room shortly after the turn, burst through a small seam, and finished the best of the lot, winning by a neck. His race was a mile and 70 yards. And here's the chart for his race: https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/p ... 22USA6.pdf.
by Fastbackss Man - there isn't a lot of coverage in the "off-season" - I didn't hear about the (no longer funky nor cold) Medina report until reading this thread
by dryrunguy In other news, Bold Article won her second race in a row yesterday at Golden Gate going gate to wire at the $12,500 claiming level. She's now won three or her last four races and three of her six races on the synthetic at Golden Gate. All three of Bold Article's win have been with rider Evin Roman aboard. She also posted her fasted Equibase speed figure ever at 85. She was claimed by a trainer I've never heard of--O. J. Jauregui. But that's probably my fault because they earned over $700K in purse money in 2021--by far their most successful year--most of it at Golden Gate. So Bold Article will be staying put. It wouldn't surprise me if he bumps her up to a $15K or $20K claiming level in her next out.
Another fun fact... Bold Article is rapidly closing in on $100K in career earnings ($91,550 to be precise).
by dryrunguy I owe you all some races.
Here is Bold Article's latest win.... She's the #1 horse. For the record, Matt Dinerman is as good a race caller who exists. He'll end up at a bigger track soon.
I still don't know why she was so wide on the first turn, but it didn't matter.
by dryrunguy Here is Unconscious' race from 2/24. She's also the #1 horse. Gate to wire.
by dryrunguy And here is Cryptic Creed's race. Also the #1 horse. He sat off the pace and pounced. Unlike Unconscious and the new version of Bold Article, Cryptic Creed has NO early speed. As hard as I was on him in his original race, it's astounding that he is now a two-time winner.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, I would be remiss if I didn't post the result of the 2022 Rebel Stakes--a prep for the Kentucky Derby.
It was won by a horse with one eye--Un Ojo. At 75/1. Most importantly, he dusted the Baffert horse, Newgrange.
by dryrunguy So, I can report that Danceswithbourbon has been confirmed pregnant, and the veterinarian has confirmed a fetal heartbeat. She will give birth in late January or early February of 2023. The daddy is By My Standards. You can see his race record at https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Resul ... registry=T. He was a disappointing 11th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby (the same race where Maximum Security was disqualified), but he won four Grade 2 stakes races and was second in two Grade 1 stakes races. All in all, he had 7 wins from 17 starts. TruNicks rates the mating a B+ (the highest rating being an A++).
DWB's racing syndicate is being dissolved, but a separate syndicate from the same partnership still has Unified Dreams who has now resumed formal training at Tampa Bay Downs under Jordan Blair. Barring any additional setbacks, we're hoping he'll be ready to race at Keeneland or Churchill in the late spring/early summer.
Fun Fact About Jordan Blair: You may recall DWB was his first ever win with a first-time starter. Jordan now has one of the highest first-time starter winning percentages among trainers at Tampa Bay Downs. He just needed someone to get the ball rolling, and that was DWB.
by ponchi101
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:44 pm
So, I can report that Danceswithbourbon has been confirmed pregnant, and the veterinarian has confirmed a fetal heartbeat. She will give birth in late January or early February of 2023. The daddy is By My Standards. You can see his race record at https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Resul ... registry=T. He was a disappointing 11th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby (the same race where Maximum Security was disqualified), but he won four Grade 2 stakes races and was second in two Grade 1 stakes races. All in all, he had 7 wins from 17 starts. TruNicks rates the mating a B+ (the highest rating being an A++).
DWB's racing syndicate is being dissolved, but a separate syndicate from the same partnership still has Unified Dreams who has now resumed formal training at Tampa Bay Downs under Jordan Blair. Barring any additional setbacks, we're hoping he'll be ready to race at Keeneland or Churchill in the late spring/early summer.
Fun Fact About Jordan Blair: You may recall DWB was his first ever win with a first-time starter. Jordan now has one of the highest first-time starter winning percentages among trainers at Tampa Bay Downs. He just needed someone to get the ball rolling, and that was DWB.
Oh, c'mon, how retrograde can you be?! Leave them alone, let them marry because they are in love. The father of the child has to meet your standards before you will consent? I am so disappointed of you, Dry!
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Imperiously.jpg
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by dryrunguy It's time to start introducing you to my three 2-year-olds from the Shooting Star syndicate. I think I mentioned it before, but this year's syndicate will be a little different. We'll have the horses running under Shooting Star for a year-and-a-half instead of a year. So we'll be running them for a longer period of time before we have to decide what to do with them.
I'll start with our filly, Imperiously. She is a Florida-bred and was purchased for $19K as a yearling. She is a gray daughter of The Big Beast, who won 4 times in 9 starts in his racing career with all of his wins coming at the 6-furlong and 7-furlong distances. So he was a sprinter. In his short career, he never finished worse than fourth. Her dam, a daughter of Imperialism, only won twice in 41 starts with both wins coming on the turf at Gulfstream Park and Calder (later known as Gulfstream Park West before it shut down last year or so), but those wins came at distances of 1 1/16 miles and 1 mile. So there's a good bit of flexibility as to where Imperiously's career will go in terms of distance and surface.
Imperiously has two published training works so far--and both were bullet works (fasted time clocked that day at that distance). She went 3 furlongs in both works clocking times of 37.16 in her first work and 36.38 in her second work. That's REALLY fast.
If all continues to go well, Imperiously should be ready to race as soon as the Florida tracks start posting races for 2-year-olds in April or May.
I'd love to know where that one white foot came from.
Imperiously.jpg
by ponchi101 Like all your horses, beautiful.
by dryrunguy Next, I'll mention the first of our two 2-year-old colts, Courageous Copper. He is also a Florida-bred and was purchased as a yearling for $10K. He is a son of Chitu, who won 4 times in 7 starts (including a Grade 3 stakes win) and also finished 2nd in one start (Grade 2) and 3rd in another (Grade 1). Chitu's wins came at 6 furlongs on dirt, 7 furlongs on dirt, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, and 6 furlongs on the synthetic, His dam, Swift Lady, was a 3-time winner in 9 starts with one win at 5.5 furlongs on dirt and two wins at 6.5 furlongs on the downhill turf at Santa Anita.
He has two published works so far--both at 3 furlongs and both a little slower than Imperiously (they've trained on the same days so far) at 37.67 and 37.21. Courageous Copper will almost certainly be a sprinter and should also be ready to race in a month or two--probably at Keeneland in one of their 4.5-furlong races for 2-year-olds.
Doc Ballard 2.jpg
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by dryrunguy Finally, we have Doc Ballard. He is a Kentucky-bred that was purchased as a yearling for $16K. He is a son of Gormley who caused quite a stir last year when his first crop of babies started racing as 2-year-olds, and they quickly became well known for their ability to win early. Gormley won 4 times in 9 starts with all of his maiden win coming in his first start at Del Mar and his other three wins coming in three of his next four races at Santa Anita, including two Grade 1 stakes wins and a Grade 3 stakes win. However, he was a disappointing 9th at the 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Doc Ballard's dam, Welcome Aboard, won 8 starts in 30 races--all of her early wins came on turf at distances of 7.5 furlongs, 1 mile, and 1/16 miles, but then she later proved to be equally adept at longer distances on dirt as well.
FUN FACT: Doc Ballard has Buckpasser in the X position in his pedigree (see https://www.pedigreequery.com/doc+ballard). I mentioned this once before. Among old school handicappers, Buckpasser in the X position in the pedigree is supposed to increase the likelihood of having a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. The theory is based on the power of mitochondrial DNA. Of course, that's hasn't meant a damn thing for many, many years. But hey, who knows? We can dream, right? Everything about Doc Ballard's pedigree suggests he wants distance. But how much distance? That also means he may take a bit longer to get going because it will be some time before tracks start carding longer races for 2-year-olds.
We'll probably point him toward a mid-distance sprint race at Churchill for the debut and then figure it out from there. They won't start listing those types of races until late spring or early summer.
Doc Ballard 2.jpg
by dryrunguy I hope I am not jinxing them.
The earliest Shooting Star has ever had a 2-year-old ready to race was last year--Rock Along at Keeneland on 4/22/21.
This year, all three of our 2-year-olds appear to be ready to go with just a few gate works remaining to prove they're ready.
Our filly, Imperiously, will be entered in a 4.5-furlong dirt race at Gulfstream on 4/21.
One of the colts, Courageous Copper, will be entered in a 4.5-furlong race at Gulfstream on 4/22. He wasn't able to breeze this week because he lost one of his shoes. That's been fixed, and he should be able to get in a work sometime in the next few days.
The other colt, Doc Ballard, will be entered in a 5.5-furlong race at Keeneland on 4/28 on turf. (The leaders of the partnership are convinced he really wants more ground than 5.5 furlongs--but they won't start writing races for longer distances for 2-year-olds until later this year. So you have to start somewhere when the horse shows you they're ready to go.)
Several things can go wrong with this plan--races not filling, races being over-entered and our horses getting bumped out, or one or more of the horses not coming out of one of their upcoming preparation works in top condition.
But for now, the future looks really, really bright. Fingers crossed!
by ponchi101 We are so going to miss you when your win a Kentucky Derby and not come by here anymore. So much
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 2:22 am
We are so going to miss you when your win a Kentucky Derby and not come by here anymore. So much
Ha! Let's get a stakes winner first.
by dryrunguy Speaking of the Kentucky Derby, three major Derby prep races will go today.
The Arkansas Derby, which will go at 7:35 p.m. EST, has a fun wrinkle. Secret Oath is a filly trained by D. Wayne Lukas that will be taking on the boys, including Un Ojo (I posted his last race upthread). Lukas hasn't had a serious Derby contender in a long, LONG time. But he's got a live one here. She'll be the favorite and comes into the race with speed figures that far eclipse the other horses in the field.
The Florida Derby will go at 6:38 p.m. EST. The morning line-maker sees this as a four horse race, and Pete is probably right about that. I'll be rooting for White Abarrio trained by Saffie Joseph, but he's up against it.
Finally, we'll have the Jeff Ruby Stakes at 6:23 p.m. at Turfway Park on the synthetic. The last horse to win the Jeff Ruby and then go on to win the Kentucky Derby was Animal Kingdom in 2011. That race is wide open.
All three races with go at 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs).
And if you're wondering, "Where are the Baffert horses?", they're gunning for the Santa Anita Derby next weekend. Baffert horses are not eligible to earn points toward the Kentucky Derby, so the owners of the horses with Derby hopes have transferred training duties to other trainers--Tim Yakteen and Rodophe Brisset. It was a game of chicken between Baffert and Churchill Downs--and Baffert was the first to flinch.
by dryrunguy Here's the 2022 Curlin Florida Derby. It actually went the way I hoped.
by dryrunguy And here is the 2022 Arkansas Derby. Surprise, surprise, surprise. The filly finished third. The race starts around the 2:05 mark. Thrilled for Florent Geroux. You may recall he rode Bold Article to her second win at Churchill back in 2020.
by dryrunguy I wasn't going to post the Jeff Ruby race, but since the winner put up a 105 Equibase speed figure (albeit on the synthetic)...
by dryrunguy The final three Kentucky Derby prep races race today. First, we have the Wood Memorial today at Aqueduct.
by dryrunguy Next, we had the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
by dryrunguy Finally, we had the Santa Anita Derby. The former Baffert horses, now in the stable of Tim Yakteen, were #2, #4, and #6. The #4 and #3 (Richard Mandella trained) were the heavy favorites.
by dryrunguy Equibase speed figures for yesterday's winners are in.
Incidentally, Smile Happy, who finished second to Zandon in the Bluegrass, put up a 104. He also qualified for the Derby.
by dryrunguy Okay. So for my horses, the INTENT is official:
Imperiously (2-year-old filly) plans to debut in a 4.5-furlong race at Gulfstream on 4/21 on dirt.
Courageous Copper (2-year-old colt) plans to debut in a 4.5-furlong race at Gulfstream on 4/22 on dirt.
Doc Ballard (2-year-old colt) plans to debut in a 5.5-furlong race at Keeneland on 4/28 on turf.
Unified Dreams (3-year-old colt) plans to (FINALLY) make his debut in a 6-furlong race at Churchill on 5/4 on dirt--that's the Wednesday before the Derby.
Of course, this is all conditional on how future training preparations go between now and the identified dates, especially their works out of the gate, and the degree to which races fill. No one will run unless all indications show they are ready. Fingers crossed!
by ponchi101 I am still partial to Dances With Bourbon, but Courageous Copper may become a favorite too.
Cool name
Good luck!
by ti-amie I miss Dances with Bourbon too but Courageous Copper is slowly becoming a fave.
by dryrunguy About Courageous Copper...
One of the many tools breeders, buyers, and handicappers alike use to breed, buy, or predict future winners is trueNicks.com. TrueNicks is a tool breeders can use to strategically mate mares and stallions to produce winners based on data-driven genetic predictability. Buyers use it as a tool to determine if a horse for sale at auction--particularly a weanling, yearling, or 2-year-old--might be a potential winner based on racing results from horses with similar pedigrees. Handicappers like me use it to determine if a first-time starter or a horse early in its racing career might be a winner.
It is not a perfect tool, especially when you're dealing with the progeny of young sires where the data are limited. The other reason why it is not a perfect tool is because it uses data based ENTIRELY on sire lines crossed with broodmares from other sire lines. The broodmares themselves don't figure into the data AT ALL. That's a serious problem.
I mention it for this reason: TrueNicks assigns ratings to matings that reflect typical educational results. A, B, C, D, and F (with +s and -s and A++ being the highest possible rating). Sometimes you'll get a result of a mating that produces a "Insufficient Data" result.
For the four horses I have that are supposed to make their debuts in the next month, here's how TrueNicks evaluated the sire-line matings:
Doc Ballard: A
Unified Dreams: A (that mating was a B+ a few months ago; so that sire-line mating has produced a few more winners in the past months)
Imperiously: C+ (that mating was a B a few months ago, so that sire-line mating has been less successful in recent months)
Courageous Copper: D
So if you believe TruNicks, Courageous Copper SHOULD be the least successful of the four.
His training works to date suggest otherwise. But we'll see.
Personally, I love an underdog.
by ti-amie
by dryrunguy Baffert's apologists have been pills on Horse Racing Twitter. A quick synopsis: "He was already banned in New York. He was already banned in Kentucky. Now he's banned at the Preakness. There's no need to remind us that he is basically banned everywhere!"
Except California, where his horses still race, and numerous other jurisdictions, if he were so inclined to demean himself or step out of his protected zone.
Incidentally, a lot of these folks are apologists from the MyRacehorse partnerships who had horses trained by Baffert (e.g., Authentic).
People either hate him or worship him. There's no middle ground.
Meanwhile, folks are already putting asterisks by Taiba and Messier if either wins the Derby.
by ti-amie Wow.
by dryrunguy It's official.
Imperiously (2-year-old) will make her debut at Gulfstream on 4/21 in a field of 8--on dirt at 4.5 furlongs in a maiden special weight (no claiming) with a purse of $55K. She will break from the outside gate (#8). On paper and with limited information available on the runners (all are first-time starters), she looks as good as anyone else in the field.
Courageous Cooper (2-year-old) will make his debut at Gulfstream on 4/22 in a field of 7--on dirt at 5.5 furlongs in a maiden special weight (no claiming) also at a $55K purse. He will break from gate #6 in a field of 7. One horse in the field has a previous race and ran pretty well. The rest are first-time starters. If I were betting his race, I wouldn't pick him because he only has 3-furlong works (which are very good), but he doesn't have any 4-furlong or 5-furlong works. That's a disadvantaged. We'll see how it goes, but it wouldn't surprise me if he showed speed and faded in the stretch. Again, we'll see.
::
Doc Ballard (2-year-old) is still being pointed to a race on turf at Keeneland on 4/28. He will be entered a few days from now. We just have to wait to see if the race fills. I expect it will, and I expect Wesley Ward will have one or two horses in that field that will almost certainly go off as the heavy favorites. We'll see.
Unified Dreams (3-year-old) is now being targeted for a different race, which pleases me very much. His last work (4 furlongs at 39:00) was good enough that we're now pointing him to a maiden special race (no claiming) at Keeneland on 4/29 instead of waiting for the claiming race we planned on at Churchill in early May. This is conditional on his next work on 4/22. If all goes well, he'll run at 6.5 furlongs with a $100K purse.
by dryrunguy So, Imperiously made her debut at Gulfstream today. It's impossible to really assess her because as soon as she darted out of the starting gate, she veered to her right--toward the parking lot. LOL! Good thing she broke from the outside gate. After that, you could rarely see her on the screen--she was that far back. She only managed to pass one horse because she got off to such a terrible start.
It was an educational experience for her. Hopefully she corrects herself in her next start where she will almost certainly go off at huge odds.
I'm anxious to hear what the jockey told Mary and Lisa after the race. Jockey feedback after a first race can be VERY revealing.
by dryrunguy Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. I actually have a bit of a connection to Kathleen O. The woman who runs Shooting Star Thoroughbreds served as the bloodstock agent that found Kathleen O. for the owners, Winngate Stables.
by dryrunguy And here are the post positions and morning line odds for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Horse Racing Twitter is exploding over a few things. First, the room gasped when Mo Donegal drew the rail post. I don't think it will bother him one bit. He has no early speed but at least he'll keep rail position. He'll just have to find a way out at some point. Second, Zandon getting M/L favoritism over Epicenter has people talking. It's silly, really. There's no practical difference between being 3/1 compared to 7/2.
by ti-amie That's a huge field for the Derby.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 10:13 pm
That's a huge field for the Derby.
In recent years, with the new Derby qualification system, it has always been a field of 20. I don't like it, but it is what it is.
by dryrunguy Bold Article won her sixth career race today out of 21 starts. She has now surpassed $100K in career earnings. She produced her best career Equibase speed figure--88--and this was her first allowance win. (All of her previous wins came in maiden claiming or claiming before the new connections bumped her up in class three starts ago.) So this was the biggest win of her career to date.
Best of all, she won this race in a slightly different way than she usually does and showed a different dimension. The #2 horse shot to the lead and got about 2 lengths in front. Behind her, was the second flight of horses, which is where Bold Article was stalking. Evin Roman rode her brilliantly, knowing full well that the #2 wouldn't be able to sustain that pace, so instead of stalking the leader, she was stalking the second flight of horses. Bold Article started passing horses on the second turn and won by 1 1/4 lengths.
I may not own a share of her anymore, but it is wonderful to see her thriving. She has now won three of her last five start (which included a stupid attempt by her connections on turf) and four of her last six starts on the synthetic. I am super proud of her.
::
As for the horses for which I still own shares, I told you about how Imperiously tried to run her race in parking lot. The next day, Courageous Copper showed zero discipline in the post parade, constantly trying to nibble on the mane of his lead pony. He finished last in his race. He was gelded a few days later. Unified Dreams (different partnership) finished a respectable sixth at Keeneland in a 6.5-furlong race. He'll run again in a few weeks. We'll look for a longer race for him. The jockey strongly felt Unified Dreams dreams wants more ground.
Since Imperiously and Courageous Copper were so awful in their debuts, the heads of that partnership opted to not race Doc Ballard as originally planned. They are completely recalibrating the training plan. I would expect all of them to go back to training and not run again for a few months.
I think that's it. Thanks for indulging me.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, the 3-year-old filly trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Secret Oath, won the Kentucky Oaks today. She was originally being pointed to the Kentucky Derby, which runs tomorrow. After today's performance, it looks like she is being pointed to the Preakness. Today, she put up a speed figure of 105. That should be good enough to put her in the conversation as she faces the boys for a second time.
by JazzNU I was watching horse racing on some random day a couple of months ago. I don't know what level race it was, big enough to be on TV, but not big enough to be like Santa Anita or Florida Derby or anything. Names were great, each and every one wasn't a homerun, but put several together in the same race and it was fantastic. Instead of watching just one race, I must have watched 5 just to see what names came up in the next race.
These Derby and Oaks names are some kind of unimaginative. But shout out to Turnerloose doing the heavy lifting for the entire group really.
by dryrunguy They're showing the early part of the Derby Day card on USA. At some point, it will switch over to NBC. Just in case you want to watch more races.
by JazzNU The replacement of a scratched horse is new, right? Like maybe as recently as this year or last? Because I can recall in years past the unusually large field of 20 would become 18 or 16 thru scratches, not stay at 20. Seems like an odd choice.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 9:26 pm
The replacement of a scratched horse is new, right? Like maybe as recently as this year or last? Because I can recall in years past the unusually large field of 20 would become 18 or 16 thru scratches, not stay at 20. Seems like an odd choice.
The practice of it is not new, but the timing of it may be new. As in, it is possible that also-eligibles got into the race in the days leading up to the Derby. But maybe it is new that Rich Strike got in as late as he did. Honestly, I'm not sure.
by JazzNU Love it!
ETA: 80-1 Odds! Neither the trainer nor the jockey even have a Wiki page! AMAZING!!!
ETA: 80-1 Odds! Neither the trainer nor the jockey even have a Wiki page! AMAZING!!!
What an incredible ride from Sonny Leon, originally from Venezuela. (Hey, ponchi!!!!) It was pure perfection. The pace on the front end was just far too torrid, and Sonny capitalized on it. Except he wasn't on the horse that was supposed to capitalize on a fast pace.
It is a wonderful story. Sonny Leon does most of his riding at Mahoning Valley while dabbling in some rides at Belterra, Mountaineer, and Turfway Park. Not exactly tracks you all have heard of. In the past hour, his number of Twitter followers has gone through the roof. It was his first Derby ride, and he notched his first Derby win.
As I was handicapping, I never considered Rich Strike. His only win came in a $30K CLAIMING race.
Until today.
That's why we hope.
by dryrunguy For those who missed it. Here's the race. #21 on the outside ultimately wins.
by ponchi101 We used to have a thriving horse-racing industry. One of the things that our ruling psychopaths took away from us.
by New England Nitemare An amazing race, NO ONE had Rich Strike on their radar. Heck, he just came into the race. He ran the perfect race, and from the #21 spot no less. The Superfecta payed out $321,500.10!!! Wowza!!!
by JazzNU The pace was insane. Messier was the last horse that really stood in the way of Rich Strike getting through the final straightaway cleanly, and was one of the leaders the entire race finished in either the bottom 5 or 6. One of the other leaders for most of the race, Summer is Tomorrow, finished dead last. They just had nothing left in the final part of the race after that pace. There's a point when Rich Strike passes Messier and starts making a move to overtake the lead where you can still see Messier in the frame because he was that close to the final pack, and then you see him just lose almost all his pace, like a car running out of gas on the highway and everyone just passing him by.
by dryrunguy This is wonderful drone footage of the race. It just kind of adds to the astoundingness of it all.
by ti-amie And this is Rich Strike entering the club to celebrate his win.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun May 08, 2022 1:21 am
And this is Rich Strike entering the club to celebrate his win.
That outrider has been getting all sorts of grief on horse racing Twitter, and I don't object to that. As it happened, Dolphins kept saying, "Just let the horse break away."
by dryrunguy Meanwhile...
by ti-amie
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun May 08, 2022 4:44 pm
Meanwhile...
My mom's rule for this (don't you just love the education I got at home ). You ALWAYS put the at least the minimum down on the longshot, sometimes the two longest shots. You'll be out $2 or $4 but will walk away with $100+ if it hits.
by ti-amie
by dryrunguy Let's go, Secret Oath!
by dryrunguy Just a reminder it's Preakness day. Post time for the big race is 7:01 eastern. NBC will begin its coverage at 4 p.m. The first race they'll show (Race 10) is a whopper of a turf stakes race. All of the races they'll show on NBC will be stakes races.
I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!), but after diving more deeply into it for the purposes of my late Pick 5, I think Creative Minister has a real shot. 10/1 on the morning line. Secret Oath in 9/2 on the morning line.
Epicenter will be the heavy favorite (6/5 morning line). Either Early Voting or Secret Oath will probably be the second favorite with the public.
(I'd like to apologize in advance to the connections of Secret Oath and Creative Minister for jinxing them.)
by dryrunguy P.S. @ponchi, there's a horse named Joe in Race 10. @jazz, there's a horse in Race 12 named Grateful Bred.
by ponchi101 Hey Joe!!!!!
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 5:02 pm
P.S. @ponchi, there's a horse named Joe in Race 10. @jazz, there's a horse in Race 12 named Grateful Bred.
Thank you. Love it! Some effort out here. There's a horse in the main race named Skippylongstocking.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 5:02 pm
P.S. @ponchi, there's a horse named Joe in Race 10. @jazz, there's a horse in Race 12 named Grateful Bred.
Thank you. Love it! Some effort out here. There's a horse in the main race named Skippylongstocking.
And that's a Saffie Joseph horse. I don't like him in this spot, but I would be thrilled for Saffie. He's never won a Triple Crown race. It has to happen sooner or later.
by JazzNU I wonder how long it's been since one of the Triple Crown races didn't have a horse trained by either Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher. Feels like that may have been a very long streak that was broken.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 10:58 pm
I wonder how long it's been since one of the Triple Crown races didn't have a horse trained by either Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher. Feels like that may have been a very long streak that was broken.
Tim Yakteen used to be an assistant trainer to Baffert, so a few weeks before the Derby, when Churchill refused to lift the ban on Baffert, he moved his horses to Yakteen's barn so they could run. So while Baffert wasn't on the program, he was kind of in the small print.
As for Pletcher, yeah, that's a headscratcher. He did have Charge It in the Derby, but that didn't go so well.
by dryrunguy And here's the video of the Preakness. Joel Rosario (rider of Epicenter) is being absolutely hammered on Twitter. And it basically started with an interview Epicenter's trainer, Steve Asmussen, gave after the race. I'm not sure Epicenter's failure to get out of the gate well is really Joel's fault.
I had the 2, 4, 5, and 8 to close out my Pick 4 ticket. I also boxed them as a superfecta, trifecta, and exacta for this race. Unfortunately, my profit was pretty minimal. I really needed the 2 to win or get second. But hey, a profit is a profit.
by JazzNU I sent my mom a text about 10 minutes before the race and said "Who do you like?" and she replied "Early Voting is worth a few dollars. And definitely wouldn't place a bet for Epicenter to win, but would for him to place or show."
So she was pretty impressed with herself the rest of the day. She also said whatever she chooses for the Belmont will surely come in dead last after getting this one right.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 4:32 pm
I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!)
What is the deal with Secret Oath? Why is everyone so in love with this horse? I feel like I'm missing something.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 4:32 pm
I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!)
What is the deal with Secret Oath? Why is everyone so in love with this horse? I feel like I'm missing something.
Secret Oath is trained by 86-year-old D. Wayne Lukas and was coming off an impressive win in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby. She's run against the boys twice now, and neither of those races were good.
But yes, the story there is that D. Wayne Lukas used to be a major force in Triple Crown races. Then he stopped getting good horses to train. And now, at the ripe young age of 86, he's finally getting good horses again after a fairly length draught.
The fascination with Secret Oath stemmed from the broad-based respect for Lukas and his contribution to the sport over the past several decades. He's called "The Coach" because he has played such a key role in mentoring at least two generations of excellent trainers. Which is why so many are thrilled to see him having such tremendous success after falling off the radar, a few health scares, etc.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 21, 2022 4:32 pm
I'm still rooting for Secret Oath in the Preakness (channeling Swiss Skydiver! channeling Swiss Skydiver!)
What is the deal with Secret Oath? Why is everyone so in love with this horse? I feel like I'm missing something.
Secret Oath is trained by 86-year-old D. Wayne Lukas and was coming off an impressive win in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the Derby. She's run against the boys twice now, and neither of those races were good.
But yes, the story there is that D. Wayne Lukas used to be a major force in Triple Crown races. Then he stopped getting good horses to train. And now, at the ripe young age of 86, he's finally getting good horses again after a fairly length draught.
The fascination with Secret Oath stemmed from the broad-based respect for Lukas and his contribution to the sport over the past several decades. He's called "The Coach" because he has played such a key role in mentoring at least two generations of excellent trainers. Which is why so many are thrilled to see him having such tremendous success after falling off the radar, a few health scares, etc.
Interesting. I know Wayne Lukas, but I'm a little surprised that it comes down to that. The excitement I was hearing about Secret Oath in the pre-race coverage, I thought maybe they thought this was a super special horse, but maybe there was extra excitement because it's a filly. But it doesn't really sound like the horse is Rachel Alexandra 2.0.
by dryrunguy There was another aspect to Secret Oath that I should have mentioned. I mentioned her win in the Kentucky Oaks. What I didn't mention was just how impressive that field was. Going into that weekend, many people felt that Oaks was actually a more compelling race than the Derby (in part because so many people assumed Epicenter had the Derby pretty well wrapped up). The field in the Oaks was... pretty incredible. Kathleen O was in it, Nest was in it, Echo Zulu was in it... It really was a toss-up race going into it.
But Secret Oath slammed down the hammer in that race. She made the other horses look like chumps. And no one was expecting THAT.
::
BTW, Nest, who is trained by Pletcher and finished second to Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks, is being pointed to the Belmont.
by Fastbackss
JazzNU wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 9:29 pm
My mom's rule for this (don't you just love the education I got at home ). You ALWAYS put the at least the minimum down on the longshot, sometimes the two longest shots. You'll be out $2 or $4 but will walk away with $100+ if it hits.
This made me laugh out loud, as did the "CVS receipt" text.
I was that person. I was perusing the odds , liked the longshot because at the time it was 99-1 and started to make a wager. Kid walked in the room and thoroughly distracted me - never got back to it.
by ti-amie WAYYYYY back in the day my late mother would treat us all to a day at the track. I would never play win, always place or show. I never made any money but it was a fun day and I got to see those beautiful animals up close.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams will make his second start Saturday at Churchill. It's a race at 1 1/16 miles. Tough field, but that's a difficult distance for first-time starters. The advantage goes to horses with at least a race under their belts. Lots of big money horses in the field. Reylu Guttierez will ride. He'll break from the #5 spot.
Doc Ballard will make his debut at Churchill on Sunday. He'll break from the #4 spot with Corey Lanerie aboard. It's a 5 1/2-furlong race. That's probably too short for him, but it's a good spot for him to debut, and the field doesn't look particularly strong at quick glance.
Imperiously has resumed training and did well in her last work. She was the fastest of three yesterday at 4 furlongs. We're looking for a second race for her in early June. Stay tuned.
Courageous Copper still needs time to recover from being gelded. That takes about a month. He made his debut on 4/22.
That should bring you up to date. This weekend should be exciting.
by dryrunguy So, Unified Dreams makes his second career start today in Race 8 at Churchill, and he's stretching out to 8.5 furlongs, which we THINK he'll like. And the weather should be nice. Wish I could be there.
I just took a quick look at the field and... Good grief! I'm having trouble getting past some of the purchase prices on these horses! $100K, $270K, $225K, $144K, $620K, $300K... That doesn't mean anything, but still... For comparison, Unified Dreams was a $50K purchase as a 2-year-old.
Anyway, wishing a safe trip for all.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat May 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Anyway, wishing a safe trip for all.
Amen. I am forever traumatized by Eight Belles.
by dryrunguy So, I was super proud of the way Unified Dreams competed today against a really tough field. He vied for the lead early on but had to check and take back a little. Then he had to check again because he wanted to go but had nowhere to go to get by the leaders. Those two checks took their toll, and he faded--but not too badly. He finished 7th of 9 but 11+ lengths ahead of the closest horse behind him.
Look at it this way. You're running in the Olympics, and two different times during your race, you have to stop your momentum because there are other runners in your way. It's just incredibly difficult to overcome such a bad trip.
He competes hard. And I LOVE to see that. It will serve him well in the future. But Churchill fields may be a bit too tough for him. We'll see how everyone in the partnership reacts.
by dryrunguy So, I'm a day behind.
Doc Ballard made his debut yesterday in a $58 race at Churchill, 5.5 furlongs on dirt. It was a tale of two groups of horses. All 2-year-olds, of course. Three had experience, and three were first-time starters. And that was all she wrote. The three horses with experience finished first, second, and third. The three first-time starters finished fourth, fifth (Doc Ballard), and sixth. After breaking poorly, the Doc was just 3/4 of a length from finishing fourth. The horse that finished fourth was the post-time favorite.
I think we're right that the Doc really wants more ground. But we'll have to wait until tracks start writing longer races for 2-year-olds, and that could be a while. But first, he's gotta learn how to get out of the gate more quickly and put himself in better position earlier in the race.
Just one other thing I noticed in the paddock before the race. Doc Ballard was a bit more keyed up than I like to see. And when Corey Lanerie got on board, the Doc reared up pretty badly. He eventually settled, and once he got on the track, all was well in the post parade--at least from what I saw. He also behaved perfectly in the gate in spite of being the second horse to load and having to wait on less well-behaved horses that didn't want to load.
So, it was a little disappointing overall, but Doc Ballard had a far better starting point in his career than either Imperiously or Courageous Copper.
by dryrunguy I'll take it! I haven't been able to play Moutaineer for a few weeks. So this was a nice return. My bankroll keeps building when I stick to the objective: 1) Win the sequence; 2) Make a profit. In that order. These two rules are serving me well. If I don't feel like I can meet both rules, I don't play it. Even if it means I wasted time looking at a sequence. Too much emphasis is placed on the big score. Above all else, make a profit. It sounds silly to verbalize that, but too many folks put too much emphasis on the big score--and forget to make a profit.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed Jun 01, 2022 3:16 am
I'll take it! I haven't been able to play Moutaineer for a few weeks. So this was a nice return. My bankroll keeps building when I stick to the objective: 1) Win the sequence; 2) Make a profit. In that order. These two rules are serving me well. If I don't feel like I can meet both rules, I don't play it. Even if it means I wasted time looking at a sequence. Too much emphasis is placed on the big score. Above all else, make a profit. It sounds silly to verbalize that, but too many folks put too much emphasis on the big score--and forget to make a profit.
This is the way to do it at the casino too. Don't worry about getting a handpay, you work on building your bankroll so when you leave, you're up from where you started. Several medium wins does you almost as well as one big win.
2022 Belmont.png
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by dryrunguy The Belmont Stakes is today at 6:44 p.m. Eastern. Here's the field. I'll be rooting for Rich Strike.
2022 Belmont.png
by dryrunguy Here's the race.
by Fastbackss Forgive me - "win the sequence " - what does that mean?
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:54 am
Forgive me - "win the sequence " - what does that mean?
Sorry. That's referring to when you play a Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, or a Pick 6. Those types of betting tickets are called a sequence. For example, today I'm playing the $0.50 late Pick 5 at Gulfstream, so that's races 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. I can choose more than 1 horse in each race if I want, but the price of the ticket increases when you do that. I picked 2 horses in Race 10, 3 horses in Race 11, 1 horse in Race 12, 5 horses in Race 13, and 3 horses in Race 14. You have to have the winner in each race to get the payout. (Actually, Gulfstream is one of the few tracks that gives you a payout for getting 4/5 correct, but the payout isn't much--just a few bucks.)
by Fastbackss I figured that is what it was but I was confused seeing different number of horses chosen in each race.
Thank you for clarifying.
When I was a kid and would go - I only wanted to pick winner, or at most W,P,S. As an adult I am suddenly a pompous blowhard and "won't get out of bed for anything less than an exacta"
by dryrunguy
Fastbackss wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:16 pm
I figured that is what it was but I was confused seeing different number of horses chosen in each race.
Thank you for clarifying.
When I was a kid and would go - I only wanted to pick winner, or at most W,P,S. As an adult I am suddenly a pompous blowhard and "won't get out of bed for anything less than an exacta"
I totally understand that. I pretty much stick with Pick 5s. The only time I bother with Pick 3s or Pick 4s is if I have a very strong opinion on some longer shots in a sequence.
by JazzNU It was a great race, but I found myself disappointed with the coverage afterward. This had to have been a historic win on the jockey side and neither NBC nor the horse racing media in general seemed to have felt the need to highlight it outside of a quick mention.
Brothers (Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz) went 1 and 2 at the Belmont Stakes. How many times has that happened at any of the major races? And two brothers won Triple Crown races (Preakness, Belmont) in the same year? Has that ever happened before? Why isn't that a bigger deal?!?
Truly wondering if this is the first time it's ever happened, I'm sure it's extremely rare, like count it on one hand and not need all 5 fingers kind of rare, if it has happened before at all. I don't understand why a bigger deal wasn't made of it.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:33 pm
It was a great race, but I found myself disappointed with the coverage afterward. This had to have been a historic win on the jockey side and neither NBC nor the horse racing media in general seemed to have felt the need to highlight it outside of a quick mention.
Brothers (Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz) went 1 and 2 at the Belmont Stakes. How many times has that happened at any of the major races? And two brothers won Triple Crown races (Preakness, Belmont) in the same year? Has that ever happened before? Why isn't that a bigger deal?!?
Truly wondering if this is the first time it's ever happened, I'm sure it's extremely rare, like count it on one hand and not need all 5 fingers kind of rare, if it has happened before at all. I don't understand why a bigger deal wasn't made of it.
Honestly, I'm pretty knee deep in this stuff and didn't even put it together that the Ortiz brothers combined to win the Preakness and the Belmont. I'd be shocked if that's happened before. Same with siblings going 1-2 in the Belmont or any other Triple Crown race. In any case, I'm glad you pointed out because that detail flew right over my head.
The Ortiz brothers gets so much unfair, downright brutal, treatment from bettors. There's a guy on Twitter with thousands of followers who constantly berates Irad Ortiz in comparison to Flavien Prat. The same guy also nicknamed Jose Ortiz as Jose Ort-Ease... Because he's convinced that Jose routinely eases horses in the stretch so his brother can win a race. Which is complete nonsense, of course. But he has a loyal following.
But in the broader racing community, both brothers are incredibly well respected. And I would strenuously argue that Jose's ride about Pizza Bianca in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf was the most impressive ride I saw in all of 2021.
by JazzNU The only thing mentioned on the broadcast was them going 1 and 2 at the Belmont, no mention was made at all about 2 brothers winning Triple Crown in the same calendar year.
Also, in case it escaped anyone's notice, the other thing that was odd about how little was made of this is that in another case, it could at least somewhat be explained away as not wanting to take away from the winning horse's owner and trainer, etc. But in this case, it was the same owner, same trainer, same everything. So there's truly no reason that highlighting this rare feat would've detracted from the winning owner and trainer's celebrations, it would've added to it, making it much less of just another year that didn't have a Triple Crown winner. And the owner said specifically how proud he was as a NY boy who used to skip school to go to Belmont and bet the horses (and hope he would win so he wouldn't have to explain to his parents that missing $20 - it was one of the better winning owner's speeches), how this was his goal as an owner above all else, to win the Belmont and going 1 and 2 made it that much sweeter.
by dryrunguy Imperiously will race tomorrow (Friday) at Gulfstream. 5.5 furlongs on dirt, maiden special weight--so she won't be eligible for a claim. She has been training well under no urging. It's a nine-horse field, and she will break from hole #6. That's good because, if she gets out of the gate okay, she won't be able to dart to the right and try to take a tour of the Gulfstream parking lot like she did in her first race.
She's one of three horses in the field with experience. The other six are first-time starters.
I haven't studied the race yet (will do that later tonight), but she can't help but improve over her debut, right? Right? RIGHT?!?!? Remember, Cryptic Creed was horrible in his debut (tried to swallow his own tongue twice), and then he won his second start, has won again since that, and has already reached his "Non-Winners of Three Races" condition.
Luca Panici will be riding. I like Luca a lot.
by dryrunguy Imperiously was less awful than she was in the debut. She got out of the gate fine--didn't try to tour the Gulfstream parking lot like her debut. Finished 6th out of 9 (better than 6th out of 7 from the debut), and her speed figure improved by about 10 points. So it was improvement. Not much. But a little.
I just don't think the lightbulb has gone off for her yet.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams and Doc Ballard will race tomorrow (Sunday) at Churchill. Unified Dreams will run in Race 4--8.5 furlongs on dirt, purse of $60K, field of 10, he'll be #5, claiming price is $75K, so it's a bit of a drop in class. At quick glance, he should be pretty competitive in this group. Reylu Gutierrez will be aboard again.
Doc Ballard will run in Race 7--5.5 furlongs on dirt, $92K purse, field of 10, he'll be #9, no claiming. The race has an interesting condition I don't see very often. It's only open to 2-year-olds that were purchased for $45K or less at their most recent auction or failed to sell. Doc was purchased for $16K. It's still too short for him, but hopefully he'll at least get out of the gate better than his debut and show better early speed. Gerardo Coralles will ride.
And since I forgot to mention it before, Saffie Joseph took over training duties on Doc Ballard shortly after his debut. Apparently he saw something he liked. Here's hoping Saffie can improve him quickly.
by dryrunguy Well, there's no other way around it.
Unified Dreams was horrible. Finished last. He looked tired to me. About 1 minute after his race, the partnership's email chain started blowing up. My favorite was, "What a disgraceful performance." As if THAT kind of comment is in some way helpful.
As I said, he looked like a tired horse to me. I think he needs about 3 weeks off, no training, and then perhaps a series of 5-furlong drills. I'd also like see the partnership consider getting him away from Churchill, perhaps even consider synthetic or grass. And chances are, another drop in class in probably necessary. It was very disappointing.
Doc Ballard also was disappointing--but better. He improved a little. According to the partnership's lead, Saffie was super disappointed with the rider. Generally, I think that's a pretty lazy "go to" when things don't go well. Maybe not in this case. Doc broke horribly again. And you just can't do that in a 5.5-furlong sprint and get away with it.
A small taste of success would be really nice at some point. Because it has been an incredibly disappointing year so far.
by ponchi101 What a disgraceful performance.
"Hey buddy, why don't you run the race? AS A HORSE?"
Indeed, how unproductive. Better luck next time, buddy.
by dryrunguy So, a few things about Unified Dreams... When I saw him in the paddock before his race yesterday, he was really on his toes and looking excited. But I only got to see him a few seconds here and there as there were 9 other horses in the field, and I was watching online.
According to the partnership lead (and I missed ALL of this), Unified Dreams was being quite unprofessional for most of his time in the paddock. Then, it took two handlers to get him out to the track. Then he continued to act up throughout the post parade. In other words, he expended A LOT of energy before the race even started when it was roughly high 80s/low 90s at Churchill.
It's a fine line. You want a horse to show interest, but you don't want them to be too riled up before a race--especially on a hot, muggy day. Matt said UD pretty much did the same thing before his last race. I did not know that.
Not sure how we'll fix him...
But we'll start with gelding him in the next day or two to see if that helps him calm down and focus. He'll need 4-6 weeks before he can resume training. So he'll be out at least 2 months.
And this is how the balls bounce sometimes (pun intended).
by dryrunguy Just to give you an example of how unpredictable this can be... You may remember the filly that was second to DanceswithBourbon in DWB's debut--Flippant. Meanwhile, DWB never won another race after that and is now in foal. Meanwhile, Flippant is competing well in stakes races. For example, this afternoon, Flippant won the Indiana General Assembly Distaff Stakes at Horseshoe Indianapolis in a dead heat with another horse, has posted Equibase speed figures in the low 100s in two of her last three races and has amassed $256K+ in purse earnings from just 10 starts.
How do we explain it?
After losing to DWB, Flippant went on to discover turf. And to say she took to it well would be a massive understatement. Now the only question for her is if she is GRADED stakes material. Being only 4 years old, she still has time to find out.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams will race 8/2 at Colonial Downs in Virginia. He'll go 5.5 furlongs on grass--so back to a sprint, but we're giving turf a try. Claiming price is $25K. I actually like his chances in this spot. At quick glance, it's not a strong field. His pedigree suggests he should like turf (sired by a son of Candy Ride; Flatter on the dam's side should work as well).
He'll get bet because this will be his first start since being gelded. (Yes, that's an angle.)
Reylu Gutierrez will ride. We're also adding blinkers for the first time.
by Cuckoo4Coco
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:33 pm
Unified Dreams will race 8/2 at Colonial Downs in Virginia. He'll go 5.5 furlongs on grass--so back to a sprint, but we're giving turf a try. Claiming price is $25K. I actually like his chances in this spot. At quick glance, it's not a strong field. His pedigree suggests he should like turf (sired by a son of Candy Ride; Flatter on the dam's side should work as well).
He'll get bet because this will be his first start since being gelded. (Yes, that's an angle.)
Reylu Gutierrez will ride. We're also adding blinkers for the first time.
Are you the owner of this horse? Is that the horse in your avatar? A very beautiful horse.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:33 pm
Unified Dreams will race 8/2 at Colonial Downs in Virginia. He'll go 5.5 furlongs on grass--so back to a sprint, but we're giving turf a try. Claiming price is $25K. I actually like his chances in this spot. At quick glance, it's not a strong field. His pedigree suggests he should like turf (sired by a son of Candy Ride; Flatter on the dam's side should work as well).
He'll get bet because this will be his first start since being gelded. (Yes, that's an angle.)
Reylu Gutierrez will ride. We're also adding blinkers for the first time.
Are you the owner of this horse? Is that the horse in your avatar? A very beautiful horse.
I own a small share of Unified Dreams. About 2%.
But he's not the horse in my avatar. That's Imperiously. (I also own a small share of her.) She's a 2-year-old filly that's just getting started. And yes, she's a beaut. We're just trying to figure out why she's so good on the training track in the early mornings but cant' seem to run a step in an actual race in the afternoon. But we'll figure her out eventually.
Then I have two other 2-year-olds, both colts--Doc Ballard and Courageous Copper.
Unified Dreams is my only 3-year-old.
by dryrunguy And speaking of Imperiously, she'll give racing in the afternoon another try on 8/3 at Colonial Downs, race 7, #4. Also 5.5 furlongs on the turf. Claiming price is $25K.
Why not? It's worth a try since we need to figure out a way to wake her up in the afternoon. Maybe the grass will do the trick. And breaking from the 4 hole in a full field, she won't have the option to veer right and try to visit the parking lot like she did in her first race (from the outside post).
Also not a great field. Edgard Zayas will ride. He's been riding quite well lately.
by dryrunguy I am back home from Ohio and just wanted to fill you in on how Unified Dreams and Imperiously did in their races at Colonial Downs in Virginia on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Unified Dreams finished a respectable third in his maiden claiming race ($25K) on Tuesday. He finished third in a field of nine and was 20/1 on the morning line, but went off at 6/1 at post time. He was not claimed. This was Unified Dreams' first race on grass, so I think we're on to something here. He broke poorly (again) but rallied to get up for third. Reylu (the jockey) suggested we try him at a mile on grass, and that makes a lot of sense. Perhaps even a 7-furlong race on grass would work. I suspect we've at least found the right class level--or pretty close to it.
Unified Dreams earned a $4K check. Take away $400 for the trainer and $400 for Reylu. So $3200 will cover his barn bill for the month. He still owes us a lot more, though. Think of it as back rent.
Meanwhile, Imperiously won her race on grass at Colonial on Wednesday while I was driving back home! She earned $24K for that win, Our partnership will get $19200 of that. She was 12/1 on the morning line, which was probably generous, but went off at 5/1 at post time, which I don't quite understand. LOL!. She was not claimed, so we still have her. Now, the hard part... Finding a race for her against other winners. Grass seems to suit her as well. And more ground seems in order. She finished very, very well and won going away. Glad we still have her.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if both Unified Dreams and Imperiously turned out to be horses that excel at a 7-furlong distance. It also wouldn't surprise me if both preferred a synthetic surface over both turf and dirt. Both pedigrees appear to be receptive to running on synthetic. To date, neither has tried it. And horses that like turf TEND to also like synthetic--but not always. Others (like Bold Article) really relish the synthetic.
Anyway, two very successful races over 2 days. I am pleased.
by dryrunguy Video of Imperiously.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, Doc Ballard will give it another go tomorrow in Race 7 at Gulfstream. This time he'll try a mile and 70 yards on the synthetic. It's still a maiden special race, so he will not be eligible for purchase. Leonel Reyes will ride.
It's a field of 10. Doc is 1 of 4 in the field with racing experience. None of the horses with experience have done anything on the track--yet.
Of the 6 first-time starters, there's a home-bred colt bred and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, trained by Saffie Joseph, and will be ridden by Edwin Gonzalez who is probably the best synthetic rider at Gulfstream. But Saffie doesn't win with first-time starters very often. Then there is another first-time starter that was purchased for $250,000 and is trained by Mark Casse. Edgard Zayes will ride that one.
Those were the two that really stood out to me at quick glance. I'll study the race more closely tonight.
For Doc, this is as good a spot for him as any. And I expect him to go off at a bit of a price at post-time because, in spite of Saffie's poor record with first-time starters, that horse will get bet solely because of the Ramsey/Saffie/Edwin Gonzalez connections.
Hopefully we get a second win in a row.
by dryrunguy Okie dokey. Let's just pretend that race never happened. I'm guessing Doc squarely detested the tapeta surface. Doc only beat 1 horse--and that was only because the other Saffie Joseph horse crossed the finish line without a rider. He and Doc were so far back that I never saw what happened to Edwin Gonzalez. But at some point, he was dismounted.
by dryrunguy A few updates.
As expected, we're having a helluva time finding another race for Imperiously. There just aren't many races written for 2-year-old winners that aren't stakes races. We have tried to enter her in three different races--two on grass at Colonial and one on dirt at Gulfstream. None of them got enough entries. We'll keep trying. We'd prefer to keep her running on grass, but we may have to settle for a dirt race.
Doc Ballard was gelded after his last race. His behavior has changed dramatically--as we hoped. He should be ready for another race in about a month--maybe less.
Courageous Copper is nursing a minor ankle injury. No big deal, though. He'll be out for a little while longer.
Unified Dreams is waiting for his next race. He breezed at Churchill this morning... 3 furlongs in 37.4. A very nice work. We want to keep him on the turf, but Churchill has cancelled their turf racing because their turf course is in abysmal shape. So we're looking at a race on 9/6 at Horseshoe Indianapolis. It should fill with no problem.
I think that's everything.
by ti-amie Thanks for the update Dry.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams ran today at Horseshoe Indianapolis. It was originally carded as a 1 mile turf race for a field of 11, but after the rain this morning, officials pulled the race off the turf and ran it on dirt at 1 mile and 70 yards instead. The track was still fast, which he has run on before without success. Unified Dreams was in for a claiming tag of $30K.
And he won! It was his fifth start.
Unified Dreams stalked the pace of the long-shot leader down the backstretch, passed the leader on the far turn, and then finished very well--neither of the other two favorites could catch him. He won by a length and a half as a 6/5 co-favorite. He was not claimed. So we get to run him again. Now he will have to face other winners.
A good day! I've been begging for a jockey that would get him out of the gate more quickly. And Fernando De La Cruz made all the difference the first time he rode Unified Dreams.
by dryrunguy Imperiously will race tomorrow (Friday) at Gulfstream--6 furlongs on dirt. We couldn't find a race for her on turf, and she needs to race to keep her condition. It will be a tough ask for her simply because it will be her first time against other winners. But she has always trained like she loves the dirt, so perhaps the light bulb going off in her last race on turf will translate to dirt. We'll see. Edgard Zayas will ride again. It's an optional claiming race, but none of the horses, including Imperiously, will be in for the claiming tag. It's a field of seven.
Doc Ballard will race Sunday at Gulfstream--7 furlongs on dirt. He'll be in for a $16,000 claiming tag. Apprentice rider Alisa Morrison will ride, which means Doc will be carrying 7 less pounds than all the other horses in the field (field of seven). It will be his first start as a gelding. That fact, coupled with the drop in class, means he'll get bet.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 1:41 am
Imperiously will race tomorrow (Friday) at Gulfstream--6 furlongs on dirt. We couldn't find a race for her on turf, and she needs to race to keep her condition. It will be a tough ask for her simply because it will be her first time against other winners. But she has always trained like she loves the dirt, so perhaps the light bulb going off in her last race on turf will translate to dirt. We'll see. Edgard Zayas will ride again. It's an optional claiming race, but none of the horses, including Imperiously, will be in for the claiming tag. It's a field of seven.
Doc Ballard will race Sunday at Gulfstream--7 furlongs on dirt. He'll be in for a $16,000 claiming tag. Apprentice rider Alisa Morrison will ride, which means Doc will be carrying 7 less pounds than all the other horses in the field (field of seven). It will be his first start as a gelding. That fact, coupled with the drop in class, means he'll get bet.
Well, I kind of forgot to share how this went. My apologies.
Imperiously took her first shot against other winners. She finished 5th of 6. But that's not surprising. And it was not an embarrassing race. She broke poorly again, and in a sprint, that's not good.
Doc Ballard improve significantly. He finished second. I like his chances on his next out, depending on what the competition brings.
Again, my apologies for not keeping folks properly updated. And thanks for expressing an interest in keeping track.
BTW, Unified Dreams will make his first start against other winners tomorrow (October 6). It's Race 5 at Indiana Horseshoe, 8 furlongs on turf. Like Imperiously's last race, it will be his first run against other winners. He'll be in for a claiming tag of $30K. Fernando de la Cruz will ride again.
I have no expectations. He had a decent 4-furlong training work on 9/22. But we wanted him to run about a week ago. That race didn't get enough entries. The next race we entered him in didn't fill, either. But the third time was the charm. I wish he had another training work around 9/29, but we couldn't do that because he was entered in another race that didn't get enough entries.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams was a very respectable fourth in a field of nine. I thought he ran pretty well given that he just got his first win, was switching back to grass, was jumping up in class, and was supposed to regress. He also beat the two heavy favorites.
That said, Unified Dreams was claimed for $30,000. He was the only horse claimed in the race. His new trainer will be Tom Amoss. As far as I know, Tom Amoss is widely respected.
So unless the partnership decides to claim Unified Dreams back in a future race, which I highly doubt will happen, that's the end of my connection to Unified Dreams.
And that's how this works sometimes.
by ti-amie Talk about good news, bad news.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:50 pm
Talk about good news, bad news.
Especially since Unified Dreams seems to be just now figuring it all out. And perhaps that's what Tom Amoss was willing to throw the dice on.
BTW, Equibase has posted a preliminary 89 speed figure for UD's race today. So in his last three races since being gelded, he's gone from a 69 to a 79 to an 89. That is a really good trend. And he's still just 3 years old. Many horses don't do their best running until they get older.
In any case, I'll keep track of him. I just hope he stays in the hands of good, widely respected trainers.
by ponchi101 I will never understand this sport. The idea of "claiming" just does not register in my brain.
"Well, no, sir, you are not claiming my horse. It is MINE!".
Hope it will be good for you and your buddies, Dry.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:13 pm
I will never understand this sport. The idea of "claiming" just does not register in my brain.
"Well, no, sir, you are not claiming my horse. It is MINE!".
Hope it will be good for you and your buddies, Dry.
If you run them in a claiming race because that's where you think they can get a good check, and they get claimed, you have to let them go.
Compare that to running them in allowance or stakes races where you know they'll lose--and probably lose badly--and your share of the purse money, if any at all, is miniscule.
The best tennis-related analogy I can think of would be the difference between playing the ITF circuit, and getting some wins here and there, or playing on the Challenger circuit and being pretty sure you'll lose in the first round. Except, of course, tennis players aren't for sale. Not a perfect analogy at all.
by dryrunguy This sums it up. From the leader of our partnership.
by dryrunguy After several failed attempts to get Doc Ballard into a race, we finally got one that filled. He'll run Sunday in the third race at Keeneland. It's just 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs on dirt, maiden claiming at $20K. That's still probably not as much distance as he really wants. But we'll take it.
I really like him in this spot. It's not a strong field at all. In fact, the field is so weak that I'd be tempted to bet one of the two first-time starters. It won't take much to beat this field.
EXCEPT...
One of the first-time starters is a Wesley Ward trainee sired by Curlin (a hot, hot sire producing scads of winners) and out of a multi-stakes winning mare sired by Into Mischief who won 10 of her 20 lifetime starts, including a Grade 2 stakes race, and earned $891K in purse money. Pretty impressive stuff, right?
But he'll be for sale for $20K in his debut. And by the looks of his training works to date, $20K is way overpriced. That's how this works sometimes. A stellar pedigree doesn't always translate to the track. But he'll go off as the favorite for the Wesley Ward factor alone. His win rate with first-time starters is obscene. But I can't believe that, with that pedigree, they didn't at least take a chance at a maiden special race on the first out so he couldn't be claimed. That said, I'm pretty sure Wesley knows what he's doing.
BTW, the owners of the dam paid a $175K stud fee to breed that mare to Curlin. Once.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:44 pm
After several failed attempts to get Doc Ballard into a race, we finally got one that filled. He'll run Sunday in the third race at Keeneland. It's just 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs on dirt, maiden claiming at $20K. That's still probably not as much distance as he really wants. But we'll take it.
I really like him in this spot. It's not a strong field at all. In fact, the field is so weak that I'd be tempted to bet one of the two first-time starters. It won't take much to beat this field.
EXCEPT...
One of the first-time starters is a Wesley Ward trainee sired by Curlin (a hot, hot sire producing scads of winners) and out of a multi-stakes winning mare sired by Into Mischief who won 10 of her 20 lifetime starts, including a Grade 2 stakes race, and earned $891K in purse money. Pretty impressive stuff, right?
But he'll be for sale for $20K in his debut. And by the looks of his training works to date, $20K is way overpriced. That's how this works sometimes. A stellar pedigree doesn't always translate to the track. But he'll go off as the favorite for the Wesley Ward factor alone. His win rate with first-time starters is obscene. But I can't believe that, with that pedigree, they didn't at least take a chance at a maiden special race on the first out so he couldn't be claimed. That said, I'm pretty sure Wesley knows what he's doing.
BTW, the owners of the dam paid a $175K stud fee to breed that mare to Curlin. Once.
It was a strange race.
Doc Ballard broke as well as he ever has in five races. But then most everyone passed him shortly after the break. And he was one of two horses in the back of the pack and trailing badly. Corey Lanerie (the jockey) moved him up a few spots late in the backstretch and sustained the bid all the way around the turn and into the stretch.
Doc ultimately finished 3rd, about 7 lengths behind the winner. This was on a Keeneland dirt track that generally isn't nice to horses that finish late.
So except for breaking well and then falling to the back of the field, it was a good race. He finished beautifully. It probably adds further weight to our feeling that he really wants longer races than 7 furlongs.
He got $4085 in purse money. That will cover his barn bill for the month. Unfortunately, he's several months behind on this front.
I'd love to give him a whirl on turf. If he truly is a closer, that surface should be more friendly to his style. Gulfstream or Tampa Bay may be his only turf options given the time of year. But we'll see.
He's such a strange horse.
BTW, 4 horses in the race were claimed, including the Wesley Ward 2nd-place finisher I mentioned in the quoted post. They clearly wanted to get rid of him--and they did.
Doc was NOT claimed. So we keep him.
by dryrunguy This is the field for Saturday's Breeder's Cup Classic. If you haven't been paying attention, there's all sorts of buzz around Flightline, a 4-year-old that skipped the Triple Crown trail last year because he wasn't ready. In fact, he didn't even run for the first time until the week before the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
He doesn't race often, which is a fair criticism, but when he runs, he has been unbelievably good and is undefeated in five career starts over 2 years. The comparisons to Secretariat aren't THAT outlandish given the speed figures he's been putting up.
But Flightline will be the heavy favorite to win this year's Breeder's Cup Classic, probably in gate to wire fashion.
The one knock on him? He's never run at Keeneland, the site of this year's Classic. Horses CAN be finicky about the Keeneland dirt.
And here's his last race in the TVG Pacific Classic on September 3, in which he put up an Equibase speed figure of 128. That's obscene. But he's never run two races as close together as the Pacific Classic and the Breeder's Cup Classic (less than 2 months apart).
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:17 pm He doesn't race often, which is a fair criticism, but when he runs, he has been unbelievably good and is undefeated in five career starts over 2 years. The comparisons to Secretariat aren't THAT outlandish given the speed figures he's been putting up.
But Flightline will be the heavy favorite to win this year's Breeder's Cup Classic, probably in gate to wire fashion.
Sounds like a betting trap if ever I've heard one. That 5 career starts over 2 years is truly ridiculous.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:17 pm He doesn't race often, which is a fair criticism, but when he runs, he has been unbelievably good and is undefeated in five career starts over 2 years. The comparisons to Secretariat aren't THAT outlandish given the speed figures he's been putting up.
But Flightline will be the heavy favorite to win this year's Breeder's Cup Classic, probably in gate to wire fashion.
Sounds like a betting trap if ever I've heard one. That 5 career starts over 2 years is truly ridiculous.
That very well may be true, Jazz. Horse racing Twitter has been booming with "the case against Flightline"-type posts. I have two major problems with him: 1) He's never run two races this close together, and 2) He's never raced at Keeneland. That said, he did a training work at Keeneland Saturday morning. Went 4 furlongs in 1 minute and change. That was the fourth fastest of 62 horses the worked at 4 furlongs that morning. Quite good. But a work and race are not the same thing.
The problem is I can't find anyone else in the field to beat him. He's just THAT good. (When he runs.)
by dryrunguy Just. Too. Good. Flightline is the 4 horse. He put up an Equibase speed figure of 127--just one point below his career best in his last race in the Pegasus 1 month ago.
The 6 horse, Epicenter, who finished 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness earlier this year, was pulled up on the backstretch--right front leg injury. He will have surgery tomorrow morning. So it looks like he will be okay and eventually see stallion duty, but his racing career is probably over. Huge credit to jockey Joel Rosario for realizing fairly early in the race that something was amiss and easing the horse. This will be his only race this year where Epicenter didn't win or finish second in 8 starts. Epicenter's career earnings are just shy of $3 million.
by dryrunguy But the race of the day was the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Distaff. It ended with a three-horse photo at the wire. (The #1 horse won by a snot bubble over a long shot, Blue Stripe, and the famed Clairiere.)
by JazzNU I watched it. I was impressed. But not nearly impressed enough for these Secretariat comparisons. Way too much, too soon.
And while I was impressed, I didn't come away thinking he was the be all and end all. I came away thinking, the field was a small one and there seemed to be only one single horse willing to truly challenge Flightline from the start and to go for broke and go for the win and be willing to finish out of the top 3 if they couldn't get it done. The others were only too willing to settle for 2nd in this race and it showed from very early on.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 4:35 am
I watched it. I was impressed. But not nearly impressed enough for these Secretariat comparisons. Way too much, too soon.
And while I was impressed, I didn't come away thinking he was the be all and end all. I came away thinking, the field was a small one and there seemed to be only one single horse willing to truly challenge Flightline from the start and to go for broke and go for the win and be willing to finish out of the top 3 if they couldn't get it done. The others were only too willing to settle for 2nd in this race and it showed from very early on.
I think you're exactly right, Jazz. Irad and Life is Good's connections clearly went for the win and saw only one way to do it--run as fast as you can for as long as you can. Everyone else was running for second before they even went into the gate. (One exception to that would be Rich Strike--he's a closer, and his best bet was to hope Life is Good and Flightline would set a torrid pace and wouldn't be able to sustain it. That turned out to be true for Life is Good. But not Flightline.)
Meanwhile, here is my favorite tweet about the race:
by dryrunguy And Flightline has been retired. He will stand at Lane's End. I'll venture to guess that his stud fee will be about $200K LFSN (live foal, stand and nurse).
by ti-amie Definitely not Secretariat-ish. Secretariat took control early and just romped to the finish. The other horses were never in the same frame camera wise with him.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 5:31 pm
And Flightline has been retired. He will stand at Lane's End. I'll venture to guess that his stud fee will be about $200K LFSN (live foal, stand and nurse).
Retired?!? That is wild. He's only going to be remembered by the horse racing aficionados, which I guess is plenty to make a mint off of in breeding, but just wow.
Gotta be honest. I was suspicious before when @dry posted about him and how few races he competed in. This significantly increases my suspicions.
by JazzNU Favorite tweet I've seen so far about this -
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 5:31 pm
And Flightline has been retired. He will stand at Lane's End. I'll venture to guess that his stud fee will be about $200K LFSN (live foal, stand and nurse).
Retired?!? That is wild. He's only going to be remembered by the horse racing aficionados, which I guess is plenty to make a mint off of in breeding, but just wow.
Gotta be honest. I was suspicious before when @dry posted about him and how few races he competed in. This significantly increases my suspicions.
The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:
4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127
So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.
But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.
::
In other news, Life is Good, who finished second to Flightline yesterday, is also being retired to stud. He'll stand at WinStar with a $100K stud fee. He will also finish his career with 4 Grade 1 victories and 3 Grade 2 victories. Now, if I owned brood mares and money grew on trees, that's a stallion I'd breed mares to.
by dryrunguy And then there's this...
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:48 pm
And then there's this...
I should have known better than to post a Peter Berry tweet. He's notorious for posting stuff on Twitter and then deleting it.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:47 pm
The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:
4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127
So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.
But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.
I'd be considerably more impressed if he won the big name races, and not the undercards. Santa Anita and Belmont Park sound good of course, but he didn't win the Santa Anita Derby or the Belmont States. Most of the big time horses that truly go down as greats, their "big wins" aren't the undercard races, they are *the* race of the entire event.
His Breeder's Cup win appears to be far and away his best win. I looked up a couple of his other wins and I didn't recognize any of the other horse names, whereas I did recognize several in the Breeder's Cup race, horses that have been in Triple Crown races. Seems like it's possible Rich Strike is the only Triple Crown winner he has beaten.
Again, I get that breeding is going to make them a mint, it's probably a sound business decision. But I think it's a decision that cuts him off from any conversation about him being one of the greats that many seemed to think he was trending towards. I don't see how the Breeder's Cup win alone does that.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:12 am
I should have known better than to post a Peter Berry tweet. He's notorious for posting stuff on Twitter and then deleting it.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 06, 2022 8:47 pm
The general consensus on horse racing Twitter is that there must be some physical issues that are not publicly known. It took him a while to get to the races as a 3-year-old, but when he did, he immediately caught the attention of those who follow racing beyond the Triple Crown races. And then it didn't take long for people to start asking, "Where's Flightline?" Here's his racing history:
4/24/21: Santa Anita, Maiden Special Weight, won, speed figure of 111 (that's crazy good for a debut)
9/5/21: Del Mar, Allowance Optional Claiming, won, speed figure of 127
12/26/21: Santa Anita, RUNHAPPY Malibu Grade 1, won, speed figure of 126
6/11/22: Belmont Park, Met Handicap Grade 1, won, speed figure of 114
9/3/22: Del Mar, TVG Pacific Classic Grade 1, won, speed figure of 128
11/5/22: Keeneland, Breeder's Cup Classic Grade 1, won speed figure of 127
So he retires undefeated and with four Grade 1 victories. Compare that to his sire, Tapit, who also only raced 6 times with 1 Grade 1 victory (Wood Memorial) and 1 Grade 3 victory (Laurel Futurity). Tapit was a disappointing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, he is unquestionably one of the premier sires of the 21st century and has also distinguished himself as a sire of sires. Now age 21, Tapit still commands a $185K stud fee.
But I have questions about Flightline's soundness. If I owned brood mares, I'd be extremely hesitant to breed any to him.
I'd be considerably more impressed if he won the big name races, and not the undercards. Santa Anita and Belmont Park sound good of course, but he didn't win the Santa Anita Derby or the Belmont States. Most of the big time horses that truly go down as greats, their "big wins" aren't the undercard races, they are *the* race of the entire event.
His Breeder's Cup win appears to be far and away his best win. I looked up a couple of his other wins and I didn't recognize any of the other horse names, whereas I did recognize several in the Breeder's Cup race, horses that have been in Triple Crown races. Seems like it's possible Rich Strike is the only Triple Crown winner he has beaten.
Again, I get that breeding is going to make them a mint, it's probably a sound business decision. But I think it's a decision that cuts him off from any conversation about him being one of the greats that many seemed to think he was trending towards. I don't see how the Breeder's Cup win alone does that.
I totally hear you. I would only caution you that there are lots of huge races outside of the Triple Crown races that are restricted to 3-year-olds. I would argue that we put too much emphasis on those three races each year. There are other really important races that occur throughout the year, including races for horses that are older than 3 years. The Breeder's Cup is one of those races. And that's what makes it special.
That said, until yesterday, if you had asked me to identify one really good horse, of any age, that Flightline had defeated, I would have struggled to come up with an answer.
The problems with the "Who has Flightline beaten?" argument are his speed figures. These are mathematical calculations. And his figures are obscenely good. As in, you see these types of numbers just occasionally in a lifetime.
::
I forgot to mention it earlier, and my apologies. Epicenter came out of his surgery this morning just fine. The prognosis is excellent.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:34 am
I totally hear you. I would only caution you that there are lots of huge races outside of the Triple Crown races that are restricted to 3-year-olds. I would argue that we put too much emphasis on those three races each year. There are other really important races that occur throughout the year, including races for horses that are older than 3 years. The Breeder's Cup is one of those races. And that's what makes it special.
That said, until yesterday, if you had asked me to identify one really good horse, of any age, that Flightline had defeated, I would have struggled to come up with an answer.
The problems with the "Who has Flightline beaten?" argument are his speed figures. These are mathematical calculations. And his figures are obscenely good. As in, you see these types of numbers just occasionally in a lifetime.
::
I forgot to mention it earlier, and my apologies. Epicenter came out of his surgery this morning just fine. The prognosis is excellent.
Great news about Epicenter.
There's definitely too much focus on the Triple Crown races, but it's the biggest marketing push the sport has, so it's going to get overemphasized. And without them, this sport becomes much more niche than it already is.
Had Flightline won any of the major prep races for the Kentucky Derby (Santa Anita, Florida, Wood Memorial, etc), then I'd be more impressed with his record paired with the Breeder's Cup win. And that is largely because those are tough fields to get through, they are big races on their own plus have greater importance because of qualification. Given how many horses qualify for the Derby, I'm wondering why he wasn't in the field. This appears to have been the year he was 3.
There is something very crafted about all of the coverage around him. A lot of using paper arguments for how great he is, rather than real racing. I've only been looking for the last few days, but it's been screaming well paid PR campaign to me.
by dryrunguy Jazz, this Tweet will also help answer part of your question.
by JazzNU Here's a hypothetical for you @dry. Let's say Flightline has this exact same record and raced this little, but was a Bob Baffert horse. How loud would the whispers be that this horse was being injected with something, it just wasn't caught?
Because one reason that comes to mind that you avoid most of the bigger races is that the testing isn't nearly as thorough or well policed. I'm assuming that's what happens in horse racing, it's certainly how it works in most other sports. The higher the level, the more important the event, the greater the "random" testing.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Mon Nov 07, 2022 6:31 pm
Here's a hypothetical for you @dry. Let's say Flightline has this exact same record and raced this little, but was a Bob Baffert horse. How loud would the whispers be that this horse was being injected with something, it just wasn't caught?
Because one reason that comes to mind that you avoid most of the bigger races is that the testing isn't nearly as thorough or well policed. I'm assuming that's what happens in horse racing, it's certainly how it works in most other sports. The higher the level, the more important the event, the greater the "random" testing.
I'll actually have to do a little research to answer part of your question, Jazz. My understanding is that testing is required for all thoroughbred race WINNERS at every track. I say that because there have been numerous times when I am handicapping a sequence at a particular track, and as I go through the Equibase chart to read up on a horse's recent races, I'll see that a horse that won a race was DQed to last place. And in the chart race comments, at the end, it will include something like: "HAPPY GAL WAS DISQUALIFIED FROM FIRST AND PLACED LAST DUE TO A POSITIVE TEST." And yes, it's always in caps.
So it doesn't matter if the victory occurred at the Breeder's Cup or the Kentucky Derby or a $4000 claiming race at Moutaineer. All winners are tested.
It's important to note that not all positive tests necessarily indicate doping. No doubt, some positive tests genuinely are the result of an innocent veterinary error or accidental exposure to a banned substance that might show up in hay or stall sawdust or something else.
And of course, just because a horse doesn't test positive for a banned substance doesn't prove that the horse isn't being doped. Remember Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro? They were notorious for using various cocktails of unknown contents that wouldn't show up on a drug test because the people who developed the drug tests don't even know these substances exist or that they were being used to enhance performance.
What I don't know is if any other random tests are conducted for other horses in a the same race. I'll have to look into that.
But yes, if Flightline was a Baffert horse, there would be massive whispering. But honestly, I've never seen any hit of that whispering regarding Flightline. And horse racing Twitter is quite well-known for starting unfounded, unsubstantiated, evidenceless rumors just out of spite, resentment, or a lost bet. Not a murmur about Flightline in that regard.
Fun Fact You May Not Have Known: Life is Good started out as a Baffert trainee. When Medina Spirit tested positive after winning the Kentucky Derby, the owners moved Life is Good to Todd Pletcher's barn.
by ti-amie
by dryrunguy Just now saw this, Amie. 39. That's an excellent number. I couldn't read the article because of the paywall, but I was able to read enough to see that he raced under the name Dead Solid Perfect. I found his record on Equibase. Looks like he only raced in Great Britain. He had only 1 win in 16 starts.
But what's most notable here is that this was not a great horse on the track. Yet, somehow, in that day and age, he managed to find a forever home and live out his life with a lot of love and good care. Again, at THAT time, there were no such things as the aftercare programs we see today or the rescue programs, which are largely run by volunteers and financed by generous donors, that find retired thoroughbred horses at stockyards and kill lots, find someone willing to give the horse a home, and find enough donors to buy the horse and ship it to its new home. And of course, the new owners will almost certainly have extensive vet bills to get the horse back in a healthy condition. And then, after that, well, horses are NOT cheap to maintain.
But even today, too few horses benefit from aftercare or rescue programs. And most such programs are U.S. creations. Similar types of programs in Europe and Australia would fall into the category of fledgling programs. I don't think aftercare or rescue programs even exist in Japan or Hong Kong.
This guy was extremely lucky, especially given the time in history--and to some degree, his location. The biggest shout goes to his owner. Talk about a long-time commitment.
::
Do you remember 1982 Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol? I may have told the story already. In any case, after winning the Derby, he managed to get a few more wins and finish well in some Grade 1 or 2 races. He didn't turn out to be much of a stud, though, and he was eventually sold to a breeding operation in Germany where his success as a sire didn't get any better. His previous owners, the people who bred him, feared he was going to end up at a stockyard for certain slaughter. So they bought him privately, returned him to the farm where he had been born, and he lived to be 28. He also was very lucky.
by dryrunguy Imperiously and Courageous Cooper have resumed training. They may be ready for races later this month. If all goes well, Imperiously will return to racing first.
We have had trouble finding suitable races for Doc Ballard, and when we find a suitable race, they don't fill (don't get enough entries). This has been going on for over a month.
We finally got one to stick.
It will be Sunday, December 18 at Gulfstream, Race 9 at 4:05 Eastern. It's 7.5 furlongs on the turf--his first turf race. Claiming price will be $25K. It is a field of 12. Doc drew post position 6, so that's a good spot. Luca Panici will ride. (He's one of Gulfstream's best turf riders.) If the race is pulled off turn because of weather, then it will go 1 mile and 70 yards on the synthetic tapeta track. (That might be even better because it would give him another 1/2 furlong and 70 yards to run, which we think he wants.)
It is NOT a strong field. In fact, only one horse in the field has ever run on turf. I look at Doc's pedigree, and I don't see turf. That said, just like Rock Along (who is also back in training for her new owners and trainer), Doc is out of a Rock Hard Ten mare, so his pedigree has some turf potential. And there's nothing about his pedigree that would make the synthetic a downer. He's never raced on either.
At quick glance, I like his chances in this spot A LOT. But I need to study the field more closely. And I need to remind myself that he doesn't break particularly well, will probably start the race near the back of the field, and Luca will have to figure out a trip in a crowded field.
by ponchi101 Good luck and, as always, keep us posted.
by dryrunguy Doc Ballard ran in his sixth race today. He finished a solid 3rd. It rained a lot at Gulfstream yesterday, so all of today's races slated to go on the turf were run on the tepeta, and his race went a mile and 70 yards instead of the 7.5 furlongs it would have been on turf.
I emailed Mary (the head of the partnership) a few days ago and queried if we were hoping for rain so Doc could get more ground on the tapeta. And this is where I have to correct something about my last post. Doc DID run on the tapeta at Gulfstream four starts ago--and it was awful. The worst race he's run so far. I had forgotten that. BUT, that was also the race before he was gelded. So I was pretty optimistic that this might work well for him. Mary was not.
Doc broke from the gate MUCH better today. He was right behind the most forward flight of horses--I think there were two of them. So this was his best break from the gate yet. He just ran a very steady race, sitting second or third for most of the race. He got passed right before the wire, but he also passed a tiring horse late in the stretch. So that got him a third place finish. The purse earnings were $3,080, so that's pretty close to covering a monthly barn bill. (Though he is WAY behind on this front. LOL!)
He just doesn't have any sudden acceleration, especially in the stretch. Some analysts would call him a plodder, and that's probably about right.
He was not claimed (though two horses in the field were claimed--the two favorites). The preliminary Equibase speed figure is 58, making this his best race so far by 1 point.
Here's video of the race. Doc was the #6. Because of the switch to tapeta, there were a bunch of scratches. A field of 12 was reduced to a field of 7.
by dryrunguy It's not too early to start thinking about the Kentucky Derby, which is only about 4 months away. You may know that, regardless of the actual date of birth, all horses age a year on January 1 each year, so in spite of being born on March 3, 2020, a horse named Victory Formation raced today as a 3-year-old at Oaklawn Park in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This gate-to-wire win earned him 10 points toward getting into the Kentucky Derby.
The bigger points will be available as the winter/spring unfolds. But I thought this was pretty impressive.
BTW, Flavien Pratt flew from California to Arkansas overnight to ride only this horse on today's Oaklawn card. Victory Formation is trained by Brad Cox and has improved in each of his three starts. This was the first time he tried a mile, but the pedigree suggested a mile, or even longer, shouldn't be a problem. Victory Formation has raced three times and remains undefeated to date. One of those wins came at Churchill.
The race starts at 1:50.
by JazzNU Why is there a Smarty Jones Stakes in Arkansas? There's a Smarty Jones Stakes in PA at Parx as there should be.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:41 pm
Why is there a Smarty Jones Stakes in Arkansas? There's a Smarty Jones Stakes in PA at Parx as there should be.
Yeah, it's a little odd. Smarty Jones was born in PA. But he used Oaklawn Park as his path to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before finishing second in the Belmont, falling just short of the U.S. Triple Crown. Before running in the Derby, he had three wins at Oaklawn via the Southwest Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, and the Arkansas Derby.
I didn't realize this before, but it turns out the Belmont was Smarty Jones' only loss of his career in 9 starts before heading to stud (due to injury).
JazzNU wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:41 pm
Why is there a Smarty Jones Stakes in Arkansas? There's a Smarty Jones Stakes in PA at Parx as there should be.
Yeah, it's a little odd. Smarty Jones was born in PA. But he used Oaklawn Park as his path to winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness before finishing second in the Belmont, falling just short of the U.S. Triple Crown. Before running in the Derby, he had three wins at Oaklawn via the Southwest Stakes, the Rebel Stakes, and the Arkansas Derby.
I didn't realize this before, but it turns out the Belmont was Smarty Jones' only loss of his career in 9 starts before heading to stud (due to injury).
I still don't like it, but at least that makes more sense.
And yes, I knew that about Smarty Jones. Him and Barbaro are rarified air in these parts.
by dryrunguy Imperiously will race at Tampa Bay Downs on 1/18. On grass, 1 mile, $20K claiming. Alonzo Quinonez will ride.
I can't decide if I like her in this spot or not. She's dropping in class compared to her last race in September and a little more in class compared to her win at Colonial in August. She's never gone longer than 6 furlongs (3/4 mile on dirt, first race against other winners), but when she won at Colonial on grass two starts back, I thought she looked like she wanted more ground. A mile just seems like it may be too much. But she clearly likes the grass.
We'll see!
We've had a helluva time getting her races to take. She got about a month off after her last race on dirt. Then she resumed training. Then we started entering her races. We entered 8 races. None of them filled or were not used. So she has not raced in 4 months. But she has been training steadily. I just have some questions about a mile.
by dryrunguy Imperiously finished a respectable third in her race at Tampa today. She stalked for much of the race and had a brief lead on the second turn before getting passed by two horses with a little more kick in the stretch.
She was not claimed, so we get to keep her for at least another race. Check will pay $2250 minus 10% for the trainer and 10% for the jockey. Here's the race. It starts at about the 0:15 mark. She's the grey #6 horse.
by dryrunguy Courageous Copper returns to the races on Friday. He'll run at Gulfstream, Maiden Claiming, claiming price is $16K. It's 5 furlongs on the synthetic. Edgard Zayas will ride.
We're not expecting much. He'll need a race seeing as he hasn't raced since his debut in April. Plus, he'll break from the inside post, so he'll have to work out a trip. But he's been training well.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:41 pm
Courageous Copper returns to the races on Friday. He'll run at Gulfstream, Maiden Claiming, claiming price is $16K. It's 5 furlongs on the synthetic. Edgard Zayas will ride.
We're not expecting much. He'll need a race seeing as he hasn't raced since his debut in April. Plus, he'll break from the inside post, so he'll have to work out a trip. But he's been training well.
Here's how it went today for Courageous Copper. He's the 1 horse on the inside. He was not claimed so we get to keep him.
by ti-amie It looked like Frosted Bird had him at the top of the stretch but your horse won going away. Nice run.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:58 pm
It looked like Frosted Bird had him at the top of the stretch but your horse won going away. Nice run.
You couldn't see it in the race, but Frostedbird was too chunky. He was carrying A LOT of extra condition, and not even Irad Ortiz could fix that. I was watching the Gulfstream feed while the horses were walking around in the paddock, and the ladies doing the commentary were joking about the 8 being "stocky".
Bottom line, Copper just needed time, and he loved the synthetic. Many of the Chitu babies love the synthetic.
But I never expected THAT.
Equibase's preliminary speed figure for Copper in that race is a 76. He earned a 0 on debut back in April.
He was so much better behaved, too. He didn't try to eat the lead pony in the post parade like he did back in April. He was totally professional. The wonders of castrating males. Maybe we should do more of that. Across species.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:30 pm
Here's how it went today for Courageous Copper. He's the 1 horse on the inside. He was not claimed so we get to keep him.
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:30 pm
Here's how it went today for Courageous Copper. He's the 1 horse on the inside. He was not claimed so we get to keep him.
He ran a fantastic race. Congrats!
Indeed! Not bad for a horse that lost his debut by 37 lengths!
by Fastbackss "Carrying a lot of extra condition" is absolutely something I am going to say as an excuse when my winter league starts next week
by dryrunguy Oaklawn Park ran the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes today. It's a prep race for the Kentucky Derby that awards 20 points to the winner toward getting into the Kentucky Derby. The track was sloppy. A Baffert horse won in only his second start. Last I saw, 16 Baffert trainees are nominated for the KY Derby. Of course, those who actually make it into the Derby will have to find different trainers at some point between now and then. I don't remember the date by which they have to do that. (Baffert is still banned from Churchill.)
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:41 pm
Courageous Copper returns to the races on Friday. He'll run at Gulfstream, Maiden Claiming, claiming price is $16K. It's 5 furlongs on the synthetic. Edgard Zayas will ride.
We're not expecting much. He'll need a race seeing as he hasn't raced since his debut in April. Plus, he'll break from the inside post, so he'll have to work out a trip. But he's been training well.
Here's how it went today for Courageous Copper. He's the 1 horse on the inside. He was not claimed so we get to keep him.
A really nice pic of Courageous Copper nearing the finish line.
Courageous Copper.jpg
by dryrunguy Doc Ballard races tomorrow at Gulfstream, Race 1. It's a mile and 70 yards on the synthetic, $16K claiming, field of 10. He'll break from the #2 spot. Luca Panici will be riding again. It's a good spot for him, but at quick glance, there might be one or two who look a bit better than Doc. He'll at least be competitive, I think, and hopefully he will surprise.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:04 am
Oaklawn Park ran the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes today. It's a prep race for the Kentucky Derby that awards 20 points to the winner toward getting into the Kentucky Derby. The track was sloppy. A Baffert horse won in only his second start. Last I saw, 16 Baffert trainees are nominated for the KY Derby. Of course, those who actually make it into the Derby will have to find different trainers at some point between now and then. I don't remember the date by which they have to do that. (Baffert is still banned from Churchill.)
Not saying they should end the ban early, but it's clearly not having the affect or embarrassment they thought it would have if owners of elite horses are still choosing him and damn near all of his major 3-year olds are still contention for the Derby and likely to be there regardless of whether he's the official trainer listed.
They need to transfer by February 28th unless he wins his injunction.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Thu Feb 02, 2023 6:11 am
Doc Ballard races tomorrow at Gulfstream, Race 1. It's a mile and 70 yards on the synthetic, $16K claiming, field of 10. He'll break from the #2 spot. Luca Panici will be riding again. It's a good spot for him, but at quick glance, there might be one or two who look a bit better than Doc. He'll at least be competitive, I think, and hopefully he will surprise.
Well, other than the break, which was a complete and utter disaster, Doc ran a good race and probably would have won. But he was reluctant to load into the gate (never done that before), insisted on having his head turned in the gate (in spite of the assistant starter's repeat attempts to straighten him out), and lunged at the start, putting him at the back of the field.
That said, he made up ground and was right there at the wire to get up for third and only a neck behind the winner. That's Doc's third straight third-place finish. He earned a $2100 check.
Doc went off as the post-time favorite, which completely mystified me because several of the other horses, including the winner (Gotta Go Gator) were dropping in class. But given the final tote on the odds, you could tell bettors were thoroughly confused by that field.
Here's the race. The winner was the only horse claimed. Doc was the #2 horse.
by dryrunguy A few races of note today with Kentucky Derby implications.
The first was the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Cyclone Mischief, #4, trained by Dale Romans, was the favorite. But it turned out to be a Bill Mott exacta. The #3 horse went off at 34/1.
I thought Rocket Can (#8) made a REALLY good account of himself. REALLY good.
by dryrunguy And then there was the farce that was the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. Four horses running--all four trained by Baffert. The #4, longest shot on the board (12/1), ran an exceptional race. It was just a bit short. All four horses produced a superior speed figure to the 89 produced by Rocket Can at Gulfstream.
Fun facts: American Pharoah has yet to have a serious contender on the KY Derby trail. Justify appears to be following suit so far. (But I'll cut Justify some slack. This is just his first crop of 3-year-olds. American Pharoah has had more time.)
by dryrunguy Another fun fact: Both winners in today's Derby preps are sired by Into Mischief. Forgot to mention that before. He keeps churning them out in a big way.
by JazzNU Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:38 am
Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.
Yeah, it's a little like watching a match between Tsitsipas and Djokovic.
That said, I can't bring myself to root for Baffert on anything. I want him gone--and not just at Churchill. I want him banned from racing everywhere.
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 1:38 am
Hard to get an accurate read on Baffert's case, everyone seems to have their own agenda and conflict of interest. The judge seems certain to rule against Baffert, and then it would get appealed, but the Circuit Court is in Cincy, which is basically Northern Kentucky for those unaware, so I'd assume CDI would have sway there as well. One of my main takeaways from all of this is that Baffert is getting a ton of vitriol, but Churchill Downs, not enough. Like, sure you care about horses and treating them well, so you're technically on the side of Churchill Downs, Inc.. But it doesn't feel to me like either side is one to root for. Churchill Downs, Inc is hella corrupt. That is coming through loud and clear thru this. And they are far more powerful than Baffert ever can be.
Yeah, it's a little like watching a match between Tsitsipas and Djokovic.
That said, I can't bring myself to root for Baffert on anything. I want him gone--and not just at Churchill. I want him banned from racing everywhere.
I'm not rooting for Baffert either. I don't think this case has any business being handled in Kentucky. And from comments I've seen, Churchill Downs appears to play favorites on matters like this and hasn't been as harsh with punishment as they are with Baffert, so that goes to a larger sense of fairness that I object to and I wonder if it being at the Derby is being judged more harshly (it shouldn't be - which is why this shouldn't be tried in Kentucky). But other than those sort of broader issues I object to in the name of fairness, it's just whatever. Seems like two evildoers going up against one another and I'm just not a fan of either.
by JazzNU Also, worth saying again - you put that Breeder's Cup winner as one of Baffert's horses and there's just no way everyone is as enamored with that horse with the "impressive" wins in not crazy competitive races that retires before he is challenged at the most elite levels consistently.
If you add or take away a single thing in a fact pattern, and conclusions change, it should be looked at again. Flightline's trainer has far from a clean history, I checked back when he won. So this is just a name swap, not one trainer with a clean history and one with a checkered past. But barely a peep about Flightline's greatness being a bit suspicious.
I'm going to stay suspicious about that horse.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:19 pm
Also, worth saying again - you put that Breeder's Cup winner as one of Baffert's horses and there's just no way everyone is as enamored with that horse with the "impressive" wins in not crazy competitive races that retires before he is challenged at the most elite levels consistently.
If you add or take away a single thing in a fact pattern, and conclusions change, it should be looked at again. Flightline's trainer has far from a clean history, I checked back when he won. So this is just a name swap, not one trainer with a clean history and one with a checkered past. But barely a peep about Flightline's greatness being a bit suspicious.
I'm going to stay suspicious about that horse.
There are A LOT of folks out there who agree with your assessment of Flightline--and your reasoning. I guess I'm not so bothered by the fact that he only raced 6 times. I'm more bothered by the fact that he, based on that limited number of starts, is almost certainly not sound. And regardless, he gets rushed off to stud to make lots of babies at $200K a pop. Those are the reasons why they didn't risk racing him for another year. Why continue to race a premier stallion candidate when he can bring in $1 million per 5 mares?
And people are paying. As I type, he's getting some of the best mares in the world. And why not? The ad copy writes itself. Extremely well bred. Undefeated (leaving out the bit about only having 6 starts with several months between most of those starts). The only real knock against him is that the stallion market is already so Tapit-saturated. (And Tapit himself is still fetching $185K per mare at the age of 22 when his goods as a stud are supposed to be in decline.)
But yes, if money grew on trees and I owned elite mares, Flightline would not be on my list of preferred stallion candidates for my mares. At least not yet.
So we're both skeptical of him--just for slightly different but almost certainly connected reasons.
by dryrunguy Courageous Copper will race tomorrow at Gulfstream. 5.5 furlongs, synthetic, $35K claiming price. He'll be #2 in a field of 7. Edgard Zayas will ride again.
Copper will face other winners for the first time, and he's stepping up significantly in class. At quick glance, his speed figure from his win last time out fit with this group. Several other horses in the field are also dropping in class, with some being eligible for a claim for the first time. If he can repeat his last race, or even improve, he should be highly competitive with this group. If he regresses, which is common after a win, then he's cooked. I'm hoping the light bulb came on during his last race and that he's figured this out. We'll see!
by dryrunguy It was a valiant effort from Copper. He broke okay, got the lead shortly after leaving the gate, and kept the lead until about the last furlong. The he got passed and finished 4th (almost 3rd). It was a really good race from a horse that was supposed to regress from his last race. Equibase put his speed figure for this race at 76--the same as his winning effort against much lesser competition in his last race.
He was not claimed, so we get to keep him. It is worth noting that he beat the heavy 4/5 favorite that was claimed by none other than Saffie Joseph. The second place finisher was also claimed.
It will be interesting to see what Mary wants to do with him next. He competed very well at this higher level.
Here's the race.
by dryrunguy Baffert, his staff, and his horses are still barred from Churchill Downs--at least for now.
by dryrunguy Angel of Empire sprung the upset in today's Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. That earned him 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby. So he has basically qualified for the Derby. But it's a long time between now and the first Saturday of May. Angel of Empire is trained by Brad Cox and was purchased as a yearling for just $70K. He finished 2nd to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on New Year's Day. Victory Formation, the favorite today and also trained by Brad Cox, finished 9th in the Risen Star.
This race was run at 1 1/8 mile--1 furlong short of the Derby distance.
by dryrunguy Doc Ballard is racing in the opener at Gulfstream today--about an hour from now. It's 1 mile and 70 yards on the synthetic. Claiming price is $12,500. He was installed as the tepid morning line favorite at 3-1. It's a field of nine. He'll break from post #4. Luca Panici will ride.
I like him in this spot. Maybe today will finally be his day.
BTW, we keep entering Imperiously in races, but they never fill or don't get carded. Very frustrating.
by ponchi101 Good luck for Doc. Hope he wins
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 18, 2023 6:42 pm
Baffert, his staff, and his horses are still barred from Churchill Downs--at least for now.
Looks like horses have begun transferring. I'm assuming Baffert appealed to the Circuit Court, but as I said before, it's in Cincy, it's likely as connected as the Kentucky court (which had a judge presiding over it whose husband has a business interest in CDI), so banking on that seems like a stretch. So the horse owners appear to be not willing to wait for the true last minute deadline to transfer, possibly because there are cutoffs for other races just before that final date. I saw Feb. 25 is a big race at Oaklawn, for instance.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:06 pm
Good luck for Doc. Hope he wins
The good news is Doc finally broke that string of third place finishes.
The bad news is he finished fifth. No excuses. It was a lackluster performance against a lackluster field.
And... He was claimed--the only horse claimed from the race. The owner/trainer who claimed him is a guy named Steve Budhoo. I've never heard of him. He's only been racing at Gulfstream (since 2021 at least). He's had only four starters this year. But he had his best in 2021 thanks to a horse he was training, Eye of a Jedi, who ran in stakes races and won the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes. I remember Eye of a Jedi but never took note of the trainer. I didn't find anything negative about Budhoo via Google. I'll definitely ask Mary about him.
It's a curious claim because $12500 claiming races are the lowest Gulfstream goes. To drop Doc in class more than we already have would require he run somewhere else. But Budhoo only races his horses at Gulfstream. Maybe he wants to try Doc on turf. We wanted to try turf as well but none of the races Gulfstream put up suited him.
So, my financial ties to Doc Ballard have been severed. Of course, the emotional ties aren't as easy. I feel badly that we just couldn't figure him out.
by dryrunguy Top jockey Alex Canchari, a fixture at Canterbury Park and Prairie Meadows but also a frequent rider at other tracks, took his own life last night. This is the second jockey suicide in the past 2 months. Alex was only 29 and leaves behind a wife and two children.
by ti-amie Oh no! So sorry to hear this.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:37 pm
Oh no! So sorry to hear this.
There's a faction of horse racing Twitter users who try to outdo each other when it comes to hurling jockey criticism--at times abuse. Now, I would stop short of saying those Twitter jockey abusers are responsible for what happened to Alex or to Avery Whisman. There were almost certainly more formidable, underlying mental health issues. But it's a thing. Actually, it's more than a thing. When it comes to these Twitter abusers, it's almost like a competition as to who can be more critical and cruel. And heaven help you if you call these guys out for their behavior. They come after you like a loyal, unified army.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:37 pm
Oh no! So sorry to hear this.
There's a faction of horse racing Twitter users who try to outdo each other when it comes to hurling jockey criticism--at times abuse. Now, I would stop short of saying those Twitter jockey abusers are responsible for what happened to Alex or to Avery Whisman. There were almost certainly more formidable, underlying mental health issues. But it's a thing. Actually, it's more than a thing. When it comes to these Twitter abusers, it's almost like a competition as to who can be more critical and cruel. And heaven help you if you call these guys out for their behavior. They come after you like a loyal, unified army.
That sounds like a certain tennis fanbase...
by dryrunguy Imperiously runs today in the nightcap at Tampa Bay Downs--1 mile, turf, $20K claiming, field of eight (one horse was just scratched). Imperiously will break from the fourth hole and be #5. Alonso Quinonez will ride again.
Imperiously will see a few familiar faces in the race, including Super Caro, who won Imperiously's last race (Imperiously finished third), and Peep's Day, who finished fourth behind Imperiously by 1.5 lengths in their last race. But I think Imperiously has a shot to beat Super Caro because Super Caro has raced twice since beating Imperiously on January 18 and has gone backward in both of those races. Both of those races, however, were against tougher company.
by dryrunguy So, I'm not sure what happened. Imperiously went wide on the first turn, collected herself, and was sitting a comfortable second when she veered right toward the outside rail and then was pulled up. She didn't finish. I am guessing something went wrong with her equipment. Maybe a busted rein or something.
by dryrunguy Three Derby prep races today, and sons of Violence took two of them. This is the Grade III Gotham at Aqueduct. A horse that lost his rider out of the gate made a real mess of things, and the Violence-sired colt, Raise Cain, made the best of it.
by dryrunguy 2-year-old champion, Forte, made his 3-year-old debut today in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Very impressive stuff with Irad Ortiz aboard. Forte is also a son of Violence. Sorry, all I can find is a clip of the far turn/stretch run.
by dryrunguy Same deal with the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. I can only find the stretch run. Practical Move is a son of Practical Joke and was one of four former-Baffert horses entered by trainer Tim Yakteen.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 9:32 pm
So, I'm not sure what happened. Imperiously went wide on the first turn, collected herself, and was sitting a comfortable second when she veered right toward the outside rail and then was pulled up. She didn't finish. I am guessing something went wrong with her equipment. Maybe a busted rein or something.
Mystery solved, I think. Heard from Mary. After Imperiously's last race, Quinonez suggested adding blinkers to help her stay focused. Since then, Imperiously has schooled and trained with blinkers and did just fine.
But an actual race situation is a different ballgame. Quinonez said Imperiously could hear the other horses behind her and kept trying to turn her head back to look at them. That was why she blew the first turn and he elected to pull her up--just to be safe. Mary said she's never had this happen before.
So we will look for another race--probably at Gulfstream since Tampa is winding down their winter season. Blinkers will almost certainly come off. LOL!
by dryrunguy The Tampa Bay Derby (Grade III KY Derby prep) was today. #6 Tapit Trice was the heavy favorite.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 11:19 pm
Three Derby prep races today, and sons of Violence took two of them. This is the Grade III Gotham at Aqueduct. A horse that lost his rider out of the gate made a real mess of things, and the Violence-sired colt, Raise Cain, made the best of it.
I'm unspeakably offended by the name of the horse and "Sons of Violence" is almost as bad. Sheesh. Do better owners. Do better.
FB_IMG_1679075833566.jpg
Okay, I'll see myself out -->
by Fastbackss
FB_IMG_1679075833566.jpg
Okay, I'll see myself out
by ponchi101 On the contrary! Post of the month
by dryrunguy Courageous Copper races tomorrow at Gulfstream. 35K claiming, same level as last time, but 5 furlongs instead of 5.5 furlongs on the synthetic. Edgard Zayas will ride again. It's a field of nine. Copper will break from #4.
I don't think he can win it, but I think he can hit the board. But at quick glance, it looks like a wide open field. Copper's numbers, however, have been better than many of these in recent races.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:23 am
Courageous Copper races tomorrow at Gulfstream. 35K claiming, same level as last time, but 5 furlongs instead of 5.5 furlongs on the synthetic. Edgard Zayas will ride again. It's a field of nine. Copper will break from #4.
I don't think he can win it, but I think he can hit the board. But at quick glance, it looks like a wide open field. Copper's numbers, however, have been better than many of these in recent races.
Copper finished fourth again. He led most of the way, getting passed approaching the wire. This is becoming a pattern. But he was only 2 lengths out of first. So he ran very well. Preliminary Equibase speed figure is 81--that's a 5-point improvement over his last 2 races. I can't knock it. He continues to improve. That's all you can ask for, right? He ran a very solid race.
He was not claimed. But the second and fifth place finishers were claimed.
by dryrunguy I'm a little behind on posting the Triple Crown prep races. I have to go back to last weekend and the Louisiana Derby run at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Kingsbarns is a son of Uncle Mo out of a Tapit mare. He is owned by Spendthrift, trained by Pletcher, and was ridden by Flavien Pratt. This performance earned him an Equibase speed figure of 100. This race was run at 1 mile and 3/16. Kingsbarns is undefeated in three starts at three different tracks (Fair Grounds, Tampa Bay, and Gulfstream).
by dryrunguy Derma Sotogake won the 2023 UAE Derby in Meydan last weekend. It was a brilliant performance. All in all, the Japanese horses dominated the card that day. Derma Sotogake is a son of Mind Your Biscuits out of a Japanese-bred mare who is a granddaughter of Sunday Silence.
by dryrunguy Two Phils won the Jeff Ruby Stakes at Turfway Park. Turfway is a synthetic track, but the winner of this stakes race still gets 100 points toward the Kentucky Derby. This race is a mile and 1/8. Two Phil's is trained by Larry Rivelli.
Remember, a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby last year is what got Rich Strike on the Also Eligible for the Kentucky Derby last year.
by dryrunguy And here's what happened today. Forte, 2-year-old standout and winner of the Fountain of Youth in March, got up just in time to win today's Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz, Jr., was aboard. Forte is also trained by Pletcher.
by dryrunguy Meanwhile, with all of the attention focused solely on Forte, most folks' favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, today's Arkansas Derby resulted in the performance that has impressed me most this far in the lead up to the Kentucky Derby. Angel of Empire, a surprise winner of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February, repeated and improved by winning the Arkansas Derby. Angel of Empire is a son of Classic Empire trained by Brad Cox. He was also ridden by Flavien Pratt. So Flavien has a decision to make.
At this point, Angel of Empire is my top choice to win the Derby.
by dryrunguy The last of the major Kentucky Derby prep races were today. All were worth 100 points for the winners, guaranteeing their spots in the Kentucky Derby fields. A second place finish in any of these three races will probably be enough to get in as well. All three races today were barnburners with very exciting finishes.
The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct was the last of today's three races, but it was the first video I found. Lord Miles, the #8 horse trained by Saffie Joseph, pulled off a MASSIVE upset after a length review of the stretch run by the stewards. Of the three horses involved in the photo finish, Lord Miles had the cleanest hands. The #1 on the inside was the primary culprit. But he finished third. So no change.
by dryrunguy Tampa Bay Derby winner, Tapit Trice, was already in the Derby field. He piled on today with a thrilling victory in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. He got out of the gate MUCH better today, was much more forward, and made a really good move on the backstretch.
by dryrunguy And finally, we have the Santa Anita Derby. Practical Move made it two in a row after winning the San Felipe. But what phenomenal performances by Mandarin Hero, a Japanese entry, and Skinner, who made a brave move on the second turn to make it very interesting.
The upside of this story is that Practical Move has trained with Tim Yakteen all along. He wasn't a Baffert horse moved to Yakteen's barn to sidestep Churchill rules like National Treasure, who finished fourth in this race.
by dryrunguy The last Derby prep was today. Disarm, trained by Steven Asmussen, needed a 3rd place finish to get into the Derby. And that's exactly what he got.
Irad Ortiz on Arabian Lion is getting absolutely slaughtered online for his move in the stretch. And he deserves it.
Now we wait for the Derby defections.
by dryrunguy Courageous Copper will run tomorrow (Friday) at Gulfstream--5 furlongs on the synthetic, claiming price of $20K, non-winners of two races. So he's dropping in class, and I would guess a claim in likely. So I figure at this point of an 18-month syndicate (month 16), Mary is looking for a win and a claim. I haven't studied the field yet--field of 7--and it will be the first time Copper races against older horses. He's only been running against horses his age. Jose Morelos will ride.
I also need to fill you in on the new syndicate for 2023-2024. We hope our first race for the new 2-year-olds will be in mid-May--a $100K stakes race where the winner will get automatic entry into a race at the Royal Ascot in Great Britain in June.
by dryrunguy Copper finished fourth out of six, about 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner. This time he stalked the pace because the winner was just a bit faster. He tried to pass but couldn't, and ultimately he was passed by two others. He looked a bit flat to me, and his speed figure dropped 9 points to 72.
He was not claimed, so we have him for at least one more race. I haven't heard anything from Mary, so I assume he came out of the race okay.
by dryrunguy Just a reminder the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday. There have been a few defections--nothing major--so the composition of the field has changed a little.
by dryrunguy The Kentucky Derby post position draw was today, along with the announcement of morning line odds. I'm still looking for a similar graphic for the Kentucky Oaks.
by dryrunguy And here's one for the Kentucky Oaks.
by ponchi101 Sorry. What is the Kentucky Oaks? Horsing Triple A?
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:34 pm
And here's one for the Kentucky Oaks.
I was very disappointing reading through those boring and not very clever names for the Derby, but these are better, and I'll take what I can get since creativity seems to be an afterthought in naming the biggest contenders lately.
by dryrunguy Practical Move was just scratched from the Derby. (He's the Baffert horse temporarily taking shelter in Yakteen's barn.) That means the #21 also eligible horse, Cyclone Mischief, will run on Saturday.
by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:49 pm
Sorry. What is the Kentucky Oaks? Horsing Triple A?
Sorry. I should have explained that. Everyone knows about the Derby, and the Oaks always takes a back seat because...
It's a race for 3-year-old fillies. (Fillies can enter the Derby if they qualify, but colts are not eligible for the Oaks. The Oaks is run the day before the Derby. So that happens tomorrow (Friday).
by dryrunguy Lord Miles has been scratched from the Derby field. There's MUCH more to this scratch. But I just heard about it.
Mandarin Hero will replace Lord Miles in the Derby field.
by ti-amie There's a paywall so this is the best that I can do.
The Athletic
@athletic@sportsfeed.me
Churchill Downs suspends trainer Saffie Joseph following unexpected death of 2 horses https://theathletic.com/4489862/2023/05 ... suspended/ Trainer Saffie Joseph has been suspended indefinitely and all of his horses, including Kentucky Derby entrant Lord Miles, have been scratched from future races pending further information about the death of two horses trained by Joseph.
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission Board of Stewards initially a...
by dryrunguy Continuar has also scratched, which opened the door for King Russell. The Derby is now out of also-eligibles.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2023 10:17 pm
There's a paywall so this is the best that I can do.
The Athletic
@athletic@sportsfeed.me
Churchill Downs suspends trainer Saffie Joseph following unexpected death of 2 horses https://theathletic.com/4489862/2023/05 ... suspended/ Trainer Saffie Joseph has been suspended indefinitely and all of his horses, including Kentucky Derby entrant Lord Miles, have been scratched from future races pending further information about the death of two horses trained by Joseph.
The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission Board of Stewards initially a...
Please forgive me. After reading up on pretty much everything, I have 5 millions reactions to this. Trying to articulate them would bust TAT's server. They range from grieving these four horses (above all else) to wondering why Saffie was singled out with no toxicology reports to the rumors I've read for a long time (mostly from angry bettors who get beat by him) to what the hell is happening at Churchill to why the hell are they actually planning to run the Oaks tomorrow and the Derby on Saturday at Churchill to Saffie's strong desire to break into the upper echelons of more prestigious tracks to the fact I used to have horses trained by him.
And those just scratch the surface.
5 million reactions. And a few of them are pretty personal, which makes it very hard to step back, take a deep breath, and look at the evidence objectively.
Meanwhile, Horse Racing Twitter is like, "Gosh, the timing really sucks." Seriously? THAT is what bothers you about all of this?
by dryrunguy Now Skinner has been scratched. We're down to a field of 19--no more also eligibles to draw into the race.
by dryrunguy The Derby favorite, Forte, has been scratched. Down to 18. Haven't found a reason why yet. Probably spiked a fever this morning--my best guess. EDIT: Forte was scratched by the state veterinarian after doing a brief morning jog.
by dryrunguy Pretty Mischievous won the Kentucky Oaks in a thriller. Trained by Brendan Walsh, owned by Godolphin, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione.
by dryrunguy But the Video of the Day award goes to the groom of Pretty Mischievous.
by dryrunguy
by JazzNU Couldn't believe it when I saw the news about Forte after waking up. All these scratches are a bit wild, but it happened a few years ago if memory serves. But I don't think there were as many this late in the game, but there was a field of like 15 or 16 not that long ago and I think that's about where we are with this one.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 1:51 am
what the hell is happening at Churchill
I'm not saying it's a ton better in other places, but I think there's an issue with the level with which CDI (the corp that owns the Churchill Downs and Kentucky Derby) actually runs the state of Kentucky. To say they are connected is an understatement. My impression was oversight and enforcement are selective, owing to their level of influence with making those decisions. According to the many, many comments I read on horse racing sites, there are others with concerning Baffert like infractions (I do recall seeing Saffie's name mentioned a few months ago) and they didn't get the same punishments, making it seem to me like one of Baffert's biggest crimes was how public the stage they occurred on was, not some true desire to clean up the sport.
I don't think racing is just so much safer or better in other states, but racing is a drop in the bucket in most other states in comparison to what it means in and to Kentucky. This is what they've got. It's seems to be in large part why CDI is so powerful there.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 7:49 pm
Sorry. What is the Kentucky Oaks? Horsing Triple A?
Sorry. I should have explained that. Everyone knows about the Derby, and the Oaks always takes a back seat because...
It's a race for 3-year-old fillies. (Fillies can enter the Derby if they qualify, but colts are not eligible for the Oaks. The Oaks is run the day before the Derby. So that happens tomorrow (Friday).
The Oaks is great, but definitely not something everyone knows about @ponchi. The year that Rachel Alexandra raced the Oaks there was significant publicity behind it, you knew when it was being ran, where to watch, etc. it was a highlight of the Derby's schedule that year. It was highly unusual to get that kind of singled out attention for the race on a grander scale, but she was a special horse.
by ti-amie Even a non pro like me saw that there was something wrong with the way Forte was holding that leg. That vet is a brave person for saying the horse was not fit to run.
by JazzNU Great race by Cody's Wish in Race 10. They keep talking about the great story behind the horse. This is what's on Wikipedia for anyone interested.
Cody's Wish is named for Cody Dorman, a native of Richmond, Kentucky who was born with Wolf–Hirschhorn syndrome. As a result of the syndrome, Dorman uses a wheelchair and communicates with a tablet. In 2018, while on a visit to Godolphin's Gainsborough Farm in Versailles sponsored by the Make-A-Wish Foundation and Keeneland, Dorman met a young foal by Curlin who immediately interacted with Dorman and laid his head on Dorman's lap. The weanling would later be named Cody's Wish in Dorman's honor
by dryrunguy Just to get it on record, Angel of Empire became my Derby horse after the Risen Star. He solidified it in The Arkansas Derby. No other horse that has raced since then has unseated him. So Angel of Empire is my Derby pick. Mandarin Hero is my second choice. He was super impressive in the Santa Anita Derby when he lost by a snot bubble to Practical Move who was scratched a few days ago.
Most of all, I hope for a safe race.
by ti-amie Another horse has had to be euthanized. That brings the total to 7.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 9:55 pm
Another horse has had to be euthanized. That brings the total to 7.
And neither of the two horses euthanized today were Saffie Joseph horses. Saffie may be part of the problem (I'm still reserving judgment), but he's clearly not the WHOLE problem. Today's events add sad, unfortunate credence to the "Scapegoat Saffie" argument. A friend of mine on Twitter (we both owned shares of Unified Dreams) stated it's Churchill that should be suspended for 2 years with Churchill's programs moved to Keeneland. Had to like it.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 9:55 pm
Another horse has had to be euthanized. That brings the total to 7.
And neither of the two horses euthanized today were Saffie Joseph horses. Saffie may be part of the problem (I'm still reserving judgment), but he's clearly not the WHOLE problem. Today's events add sad, unfortunate credence to the "Scapegoat Saffie" argument. A friend of mine on Twitter (we both owned shares of Unified Dreams) stated it's Churchill that should be suspended with Churchill's programs moved to Keeneland. Had to like it.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 9:55 pm
Another horse has had to be euthanized. That brings the total to 7.
And neither of the two horses euthanized today were Saffie Joseph horses. Saffie may be part of the problem (I'm still reserving judgment), but he's clearly not the WHOLE problem. Today's events add sad, unfortunate credence to the "Scapegoat Saffie" argument. A friend of mine on Twitter (we both owned shares of Unified Dreams) stated it's Churchill that should be suspended with Churchill's programs moved to Keeneland. Had to like it.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 9:55 pm
Another horse has had to be euthanized. That brings the total to 7.
And neither of the two horses euthanized today were Saffie Joseph horses. Saffie may be part of the problem (I'm still reserving judgment), but he's clearly not the WHOLE problem. Today's events add sad, unfortunate credence to the "Scapegoat Saffie" argument. A friend of mine on Twitter (we both owned shares of Unified Dreams) stated it's Churchill that should be suspended for 2 years with Churchill's programs moved to Keeneland. Had to like it.
by JazzNU Yay! Fun race. My picks were Mage and Reincarnate, Mage the more likely and Reincarnate the long shot. We've been over this before, but those were my picks because of Javier Castellano and John Velasquez being the jockeys. The betting on jockeys approach is even more important at the Kentucky Derby with the field always being so large. Veteran skill for the win.
by JazzNU And @ponchi in case you didn't get to watch - the horse Mage, the trainer Gustavo Delgado, and the jockey Javier Castellano are all Venezuelan!
by dryrunguy Here's the race. All went well. And indeed... Venezuelans have had most or a piece of the Kentucky Derby winner 2 years in a row.
by dryrunguy
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 11:17 pm
Yay! Fun race. My picks were Mage and Reincarnate, Mage the more likely and Reincarnate the long shot. We've been over this before, but those were my picks because of Javier Castellano and John Velasquez being the jockeys. The betting on jockeys approach is even more important at the Kentucky Derby with the field always being so large. Veteran skill for the win.
Javier was 0/15 in his Derby races going into today's race. But he's a Hall of Fame rider and has been the leading rider in the U.S. several times. It was just a matter of time. I just thought the horse was too inexperienced and green.
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 11:17 pm
Yay! Fun race. My picks were Mage and Reincarnate, Mage the more likely and Reincarnate the long shot. We've been over this before, but those were my picks because of Javier Castellano and John Velasquez being the jockeys. The betting on jockeys approach is even more important at the Kentucky Derby with the field always being so large. Veteran skill for the win.
Javier was 0/15 in his Derby races going into today's race. But he's a Hall of Fame rider and has been the leading rider in the U.S. several times. It was just a matter of time. I just thought the horse was too inexperienced and green.
So good on you! Well done!
That's always what I thought for Javier, just a matter of time before he wins it. For the horse being too green, ignorance is bliss. Not knowing their complete history, but knowing they have enough good finishes to be in the field, can be a benefit in picking at the Kentucky Derby to me. I tend to know who the Santa Anita and Florida Derby winners are, maybe watched a race or two in the season and read a few things. But mostly, I'm looking at the jockey, the trainer and the odds. And I never mind a longer shot at the Kentucky Derby.
by ponchi101
JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 11:22 pm
And @ponchi in case you didn't get to watch - the horse Mage, the trainer Gustavo Delgado, and the jockey Javier Castellano are all Venezuelan!
We used to have a very strong racing-horse "industry". Sundays with the family used to involve BBQ and the races in the background.
People must be happy back home. Txs
by New England Nitemare Great Kentucky Derby yesterday with Mage winning, now the question becomes can he win the Triple Crown???....now on to Baltimore for the Preakness!!!
by dryrunguy
New England Nitemare wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 4:10 pm
Great Kentucky Derby yesterday with Mage winning, now the question becomes can he win the Triple Crown???....now on to Baltimore for the Preakness!!!
About Mage... He has only run four times, and he's run at four different distances--7 furlongs, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles, and 1 1/4 miles. His Equibase speed figures have improved with each race: 88, 95, 102, and 104 in the Derby. Of the horses that ran in the Derby and are likely for the Preakness, he may be the only Derby horse going into the Preakness on an upward trajectory in terms of figures. That's a very good trajectory. Several horses regressed in the Derby and could be due for a bounce back in a positive direction. At the same time, one could probably argue that Mage is due a subpar effort--though he has shown zero signs of that. But I can tell you as a bettor, regression races tend to happen when you least expect them.
The wildcards are Forte, if his connections decide he's fit enough for the Preakness, and other contenders that skipped the Derby. There very well be another Mage or two sitting out there somewhere. And we can't count out the four other horses that scratched from the Derby.
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sun May 07, 2023 4:23 pm
The wildcards are Forte, if his connections decide he's fit enough for the Preakness, and other contenders that skipped the Derby. There very well be another Mage or two sitting out there somewhere. And we can't count out the four other horses that scratched from the Derby.
I read that Pletcher said Forte is on track for the Preakness if everything goes according to plan. But that if things don't go that way, he may be skipping both the Preakness and Belmont and targeting his next race much later in the season.
by dryrunguy FYI, something breaking on Twitter (NY Times source) about Forte failing a drug test last fall at Saratoga. This would have been well before he ran in and won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Unfortunately, I'm buried with work at the moment and won't be able to dig into this until tonight.
by dryrunguy Bloodhorse cites two unnamed sources.
by ti-amie TFG has set the standard for all crooks who can afford to do this.
From the article:
"In this case, this matter likely would have been adjudicated months ago but for the repeated procedural delays sought by the trainer's counsel," Maione wrote to BloodHorse.
Pletcher's counsel, Karen Murphy, and the Violence colt's connections did not respond to requests from the New York Times for comment, nor did Murphy reply with comment to BloodHorse.
The horse was obviously not well and the vet in Kentucky did the right thing. What happens now?
by JazzNU
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Wed May 10, 2023 5:17 pm
FYI, something breaking on Twitter (NY Times source) about Forte failing a drug test last fall at Saratoga. This would have been well before he ran in and won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Unfortunately, I'm buried with work at the moment and won't be able to dig into this until tonight.
The delayed test results reveal has happened before, probably most notably with Justify. I think the delay is a feature not a bug.
by dryrunguy Echo Lane (2-year-old) will make his racing debut at Gulfstream on Friday. 5 furlongs on dirt. I'm betting he will prefer turf based on his pedigree, but he's training exceptionally well on dirt. Luca Panici will ride. Echo Lane will not be for sale, of course, as Mary has an extremely high opinion of him. (I think I forgot to tell you that Mary elected to NOT enter him in the race from last week where the winner would have been eligible to compete in an Ascot race.
Courageous Copper is entered in a Gulfstream race on Sunday. 5 furlongs on the synthetic. He's dropping down to a claiming price of $12.5K. Leonel Reyes will ride.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 8:08 pm
Echo Lane (2-year-old) will make his racing debut at Gulfstream on Friday. 5 furlongs on dirt. I'm betting he will prefer turf based on his pedigree, but he's training exceptionally well on dirt. Luca Panici will ride. Echo Lane will not be for sale, of course, as Mary has an extremely high opinion of him. (I think I forgot to tell you that Mary elected to NOT enter him in the race from last week where the winner would have been eligible to compete in an Ascot race.
Echo Lane wasn't ready. He needed more training works. He was competitive for half the race and then retreated. Finished last.
by dryrunguy The Preakness Stakes is today at 7:01 p.m. Eastern. The Derby Winner, Mage, is the heavy 4/5 morning line favorite. That's justified. The second favorite on the morning line is Bob Baffert's National Treasure. He won his debut at Del Mar back in September but hasn't won in four starts since. So that tells you a little something about the field.
Fun Fact: Seven horses running in the Preakness; three of them, including Mage, are sons of Good Magic (son of Curlin). His first crop of foals have made quite the splash in Triple Crown fields. Good Magic had two sons in the Derby field.
by JazzNU Pace was pedestrian, but the ending was fun. I thought Blazing Sevens was going to take it.
by dryrunguy No U.S. Triple Crown this year. Blazing Sevens ran his eyeballs out in a losing effort. Mage was third. He got the worst possible pace scenario in spite of breaking better than usual.
by dryrunguy Unified Dreams (remember him?) just scored his first allowance win--by a snotbubble--at Canterbury Park. That's his fourth career win in 14 starts. But all three of his previous wins came in claiming ranks.
He's now won two of his last three races (was second in his previous start) and three of his last five.
by dryrunguy The field for the Belmont is set, as are post positions and morning line odds.
by ti-amie Dry what do you think about the shutdown of Churchill Downs?
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by Fastbackss It's always disappointing to me when that few horses in a TC race.
Anywho, enjoyed the names of the top 6 (we'll at one point of the race) in grade 1 Acorn yesterday
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by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2023 11:26 pm
Dry what do you think about the shutdown of Churchill Downs?
Sorry, Amie. I'm just now seeing this. Crazy week.
I think lots of things about it. First, what took them so long? Whether it was a soundness issue or a track issue (because both the dirt and turf courses were in questionable shape), they should have shut it down well before the Derby. But they waited and only cut the Churchill meet by a week. Second, I have long had questions about Saffie Joseph. But the first autopsy was released earlier this week. Nothing was found in terms of toxicology or previously undetected defects. If the second autopsy reveals the same, then Churchill should reinstate him and apologize profusely. Third, why on Earth anyone would want to run their horses at Churchill is a complete mystery to me, but that fact seems to lend credence to the theory that the problem was one of soundness rather than the tracks themselves.
Finally, I guess we wait and see what happens with Churchill's races moved to Ellis Park. While Ellis attracts trainers and owners from other tracks, most of the horses that will race there in the weeks ahead will have come from Churchill.
When it's all said and done, I'm guessing it will be largely unsolved. There are just too many potential factors that figure into all of this. I know we like things simple, cut, and dry, but we cannot rule out the notion that this may have been the result of a combination of factors.
by dryrunguy History made. Jena Antonucci becomes the first woman trainer to win the Belmont. And Javier Castellano ride two of the three U.S. Triple Crown winners. I didn't think Arcangelo could do it, but I was rooting for him the whole way.
by ti-amie Dry did you have an issue with the sound mix? There are a lot of complaints about being unable to clearly hear the announcer when the stretch run started.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Jun 11, 2023 1:04 am
Dry did you have an issue with the sound mix? There are a lot of complaints about being unable to clearly hear the announcer when the stretch run started.
I believe this call was done by the guy who calls Churchill. Drawing a blank on his name, which is embarrassing.
The official call from Belmont was done by Tom Durkin. He did fine. (He had some issues in the Cody's Wish race a few races before. But hey, that was one of his first calls in several years. Willing to cut him a break.)
by dryrunguy Jena sums it up. We all know life isn't really that simple. Not everyone can just go off and "make your own table." But you can't help but appreciate the sentiment.
by Fastbackss Rinaldi is perfect for that role.
We've seen his produced pieces, but solid interviewing on the fly to weave a tapestry as if it were produced...
by dryrunguy BTW, I just watched all 10 races from Saturday's opening day at Ellis Park. Remember, the races that ran yesterday and will run today were originally scheduled for Churchill.
The day was entirely incident-free.
by dryrunguy Just watched all 10 of today's races at Ellis. It was uneventful except for two things: 1) the track started out rated as fast; then the rain came, and it was downgraded to muddy; then more rain came, and it was downgraded to sloppy; 2) one horse in Race 7 was eased after checking hard in traffic and did not finish. The Equibase chart for the race simply states the horse was "distanced". She DNF (did not finish). But it also did not state that she walked off the track. Sometimes they add that. Sometimes they don't. But it looked to me like everything was okay with the horse. The jockey simply realized there was no point in finishing. That's what it looked like to me.
Thankful for two mostly uneventful days for Ellis. But that's bad news for Churchill.
by Fastbackss They should employ that terminology for tennis matches
by dryrunguy Another uneventful day at Ellis (except for the late Pick 5 paying $84K+). One horse was eased during a race. The Equibase chart states the horse walked off the track.
Important to note that today's races were NOT originally carded to run at Churchill. They were carded for Ellis. But I would bet a lot of the horses thta will run during the Ellis meet came from Churchill. (Ellis Part is only an hour or so from Churchill.)
by dryrunguy Remember Unified Dreams? He ran again at Canterbury today and won his second race in a row (allowance optional claiming; he wasn't for sale). He has now won 3 of his last 4 races and 4 of his last 6. He's also now topped $100K in career earnings.
by dryrunguy
by Fastbackss That seems surprising to me as a casual fan?
by dryrunguy There are no clean hands in this dispute. And Churchill's hands are even dirtier than when they first rolled out Baffert's ban a few years ago.
by dryrunguy So, I've not been talking about horse racing or any of my horses. There hasn't been much to say. Until today.
Echo Lane is still trying to win his maiden. He made another attempt today--and it was his best effort to date, especially given the horrible stumble at the start and having to check and swing out in the stretch. Echo Lane is #2.
by dryrunguy Bedrock Birdie made her second start today after an abysmal debut. This time, she moved from the dirt to the synthetic. And that worked out very well. It's very rare for a horse to get the lead on the Gulfstream synthetic and be able to hold it.
by dryrunguy History was made today as Jessica Paquette became the first woman to call two Grade 1 thoroughbred races. First, she called the Grade 1 Cotillion for 3-year-old fillies. Then she called the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby.
She's only been calling races at Parx for about a year. And she's spent much of the last year getting dragged on Twitter by men who FEEL very, very strongly that the job should have been given to... a man. I think she's doing great.
by dryrunguy I have not been talking about my horses as there has not been all that much noteworthy to mention.
Except Bedrock Birdie. Her first race on dirt was a disaster. But she broke her maiden by a nose on September 16 on the tapeta at Gulfstream at 5.5 furlongs and then today won again in her first race against other winners, also at Gulfstream on the tapeta at 5 furlongs. So she has two wins in three starts.
I'm super proud of her. She has speed and lots and lots of guts.
by ponchi101 Pictures of your babe, please
Bedrock Birdie.jpg
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by dryrunguy
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 07, 2023 10:07 pm
Pictures of your babe, please
I don't have any winner's circle photos, but I love this one that Gulfstream posted on the Muskpit.
Bedrock Birdie.jpg
by Fastbackss For those of us in the States, piece on horse doping will be on 60 Minutes in about ten minutes
by ashkor87 Sierra Leone should win the Belmont and Preakness, just like Risen Star did.. he got caught in traffic in the Derby..
by ashkor87 I watch the big races regularly, will be up for the Breeders Cup.. very hard to pick a winner in the Classic this year (2022 was almost too easy).. horses from other countries - Forever Young, City of Troy, usually do not do well in the US, conditions are too different? Sierra Leone has kept losing, though narrowly but it is not a good sign when a horse is regularly beaten - could be he is not a fighter..maybe we will get a surprise this year..
any thoughts?
by ashkor87 saw a story which says City of Troy has a long stride but doesnt hit the ground as many time per second as he needs to on dirt.. 'cadence' they call it.. so I would not expect him to do all that well on dirt.. which leaves us with Fierceness, I guess...
by dryrunguy Ashkor, there were A LOT of great races yesterday at Breeder's Cup. I'm looking forward to watching today as well. There are a million question marks surrounding City of Troy since he's never raced on dirt. Being a son of Justify, he should be able to handle the dirt just fine. But the other side of his pedigree is Galileo--pure turf--but a great horse nonetheless.
I just think 5/2 is way too short on him. Fierceness isn't much better at 3/1, but he's logical.
That said, the Del Mar main track played pretty fair yesterday. I didn't see any bias favoring speed. So if you want to roll the dice on a dead closer like Sierra Leone (12/1) or Senor Buscador (30/1), the price is right--especially on Senor Buscador. (Shut up, Dry. Senor Buscador has NO chance.)
I'll be interested to see how the Japanese horses do.
I'm a huge fan of Thorpedo Anna and very much looking forward to her romp in the Distaff (Race 6).
by dryrunguy Arthur's Ride is another curious horse running today in the Classic. I'm anxious to see what kind of a trip he gets. He wants the lead, for sure. But I don't think he's going to get it today because of his outside post position. Can he sit just off the pace and pounce at the top of the stretch? I don't know. He has a win at this distance, but the fact he was beat by a few other horses in this field in his last race (also 1 1/4 miles) where he got the lead and faded (that was his next race after winning the Grade 1 Whitney at 1 1/8 miles) may not bode well for him. But he might be able to turn the tables on them, especially if you believe in the "bounce back" angle, and the price will be right. He should go off at about 10/1 odds.
by dryrunguy I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.
If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.
by dryrunguy
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:43 pm
I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.
If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.
Oops! I'll post the race here once it's available.
by dryrunguy Okay. The race is up.
by dryrunguy This was probably the surprise of the day. I don't know what Irad was doing on the 9.
by dryrunguy This was my favorite race of the day (so far).
by ti-amie I didn't know that there were two races.
by dryrunguy
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:09 am
I didn't know that there were two races.
The Breeder's Cup? Oh, it's a 2-day thing. Yesterday, they had an undercard and then several 2-year-old races. Today, they did the Breeder's Cup races for the older horses. I think it's something like 18 races in all over 2 days? Something like that.
It's a phenomenal event.
by ashkor87 great job by Sierra Leone's trainer.. I always liked him but thought he lacked fighting spirit.. well, today, he had the fight all right.. holding off Fierceness. the knock on Turf horses proved to be correct - City of Troy just never got going.. Thorpedo Ana is truly awesome, made it look like no contest..
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 12:09 am
I didn't know that there were two races.
The Breeder's Cup? Oh, it's a 2-day thing. Yesterday, they had an undercard and then several 2-year-old races. Today, they did the Breeder's Cup races for the older horses. I think it's something like 18 races in all over 2 days? Something like that.
It's a phenomenal event.
I checked again. 14 races are official Breeder's Cup races--five races for 2-year-olds on Friday and nine races for older horses on Saturday.
by dryrunguy
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 1:32 am
great job by Sierra Leone's trainer.. I always liked him but thought he lacked fighting spirit.. well, today, he had the fight all right.. holding off Fierceness. the knock on Turf horses proved to be correct - City of Troy just never got going.. Thorpedo Ana is truly awesome, made it look like no contest..
Flavien Prat (yes, the jockey that got Maximum Security disqualified in the Kentucky Derby a few years ago) rode Sierra Leone perfectly. I was right about the short-stretch problem for closers. But Flavien negated that threat on the turn and grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch. Flavien did that.
Thorpedo Anna is an incredibly special horse. And she's just a 3-year-old. If I owned her, I would really struggle with the dilemma whether to keep racing her or breed her. I suspect she'll race at least one more year. She's just THAT good.
by Fastbackss
dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 9:43 pm
I totally forgot about the short stretch in the Classic at Del Mar. That's very unfavorable to closers because there's not enough real estate to close.
If I were betting, I'd take Arthur's Ride in the Classic. 13/1 is just too enticing.
Listened to good interview with Jerry Bailey. He brought up this very comment about the short stretch.
He also commented that the 2yo filly field was very weak.
)
I guess he is being “cancel” lol 
