'23 AO Women's Singles Draw & Discussion

[ashkor87]

Sabalenka 20
Garcia 20
Pegula 20
Rybakina 10
Pliskova 10
The rest splits the last 20%. It is that close.

Rybakina half of Pegula?! how many wimbledons does she have to win to show us she is a champion? what has Pegula won?

[Deuce]

^ Using that very same approach during Wimbledon last year would not have yielded an accurate prediction of the winner.
Every winner wins his/her first at some point.
Just because something has never happened before does not mean that it won't happen.

[ashkor87]

But it seems we all agree Sabalenka is favorite now, with Garcia a close second?

[JTContinental]

I'd put Pegula ahead of Garcia, and if Ostapenko keeps up her hot streak, I'd put her near the top contenders

[Suliso]

Sabalenka, Garcia, Rybakina, Pegula, Ostapenko, Bencic and Azarenka (with the last two being generous) in this order. Anything else would be a huge surprise for me.

[Deuce]

Heh... Sabalenka is never a favourite in my book. Not until she wins a couple - because she has choked so many times in big ones (often after looking very good in the matches leading up to the ultimate choke). And I, personally, doubt that she'll ever win a Major.

I'd say it's between Garcia and Bencic here, with the edge going to Garcia.
I admittedly haven't seen a Bencic match this week - but I know she's been playing well for the past few weeks (won the tournament before this, where I did see her play).
I have seen 2 full Garcia matches here, and I've been impressed - not so much with her play, which has been good - but more with her 'problem solving' abilities. I believe she is mentally stronger than Bencic.

I haven't seen Pegula play this week, either - and I am not aware of how she was playing in the weeks leading up to this (did she play any of the Australian or New Zealand lead ups?). And so my not including her is more a product of my ignorance about her current form than about anything else.

[ponchi101]

Sabalenka 20
Garcia 20
Pegula 20
Rybakina 10
Pliskova 10
The rest splits the last 20%. It is that close.

Rybakina half of Pegula?! how many wimbledons does she have to win to show us she is a champion? what has Pegula won?

Nobody is saying she is not a champion; that is settled. She won her Wimby.
But Pegula is ranked higher.
Hey, if Rybakina wins this I will enjoy it. I have said it, I like her game and her demeanor. And if her M.O. is going to be "Win big, disappear for a while, win big again", fine. But she yesterday played very good tennis for most of the match, with some bad stretches too. They were in the 3rd game of the first set and she already had 12 UE's. She also had a truckload of winners, but if she comes to one match against one of the retrievers and the UE's go up, she may not make it.
The next match: Rybakina/Ostapenko. What will be the O/U for UE's? I say, at least 40. (Combined).

[patrick]

I take the over on UFEs in Rybakina vs Ostapenko

[ponchi101]

I take the over on UFEs in Rybakina vs Ostapenko

By how much? If it goes 2 sets, I say 40 is reasonable. If it goes 3 sets, 50 is... about right?

[patrick]

Yes

[ashkor87]

But it will be more fun to watch than, say, Pegula versus Badosa or Vika

[ponchi101]

Sure.
If you are the kind of person that enjoys holding a firecracker in your hand...
(it can be spectacular, it can be appalling. We will see).

[ashkor87]

Being ranked higher didn't help Swiatek much, did it? Or Coco?

[ashkor87]

Btw that is exactly how we light firecrackers around here!

[Suliso]

Garcia is gone so it's even more Sabalenka's tournament to lose. She might of course, but I have a feeling not this time.