by
ti-amie This is a Sunday start.
There are no entry lists out yet but this is the general discussion thread so I think it's okay to start a thread like this.
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
by ashkor87 i wonder what conditions will be like - is Australia getting hotter like everyone else? or is it only a northern hemisphere thing? The heat and humidity are often a major factor - especially Europeans from cold climes struggle a lot here - Americans do well, because they are used to heat and humidity in Florida etc.. I wonder how Sabalenka manages it so well.. trains in Dubai maybe?
by ponchi101 Argentina, in the Soutern Hemisphere too, is getting hotter. Australia will be unpredictably hot too.
Or not. By now, we need to expect that.
by JTContinental There are 6 men and 6 women competing in this year's AO using protected rankings which seems like a lot.
On the men's side, Nick Kyrgios, Pablo Carreno Busta, Reilly Opelka, Jenson Brooksby, Kei Nishikori, and Dominic Stricker
For the women, Belinda Bencic, Caty McNally, Saisai Zheng, Jodie Burrage, Danka Kovinic, and Julia Grabher
by ashkor87 any sign of Kvitova?
by Fastbackss It's got to be a terrible feeling finishing between 99-104 and the rankings, starting your off-season, and then halfway through it finding out you are not in the main draw of AO
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 10:02 am
any sign of Kvitova?
I don't see her coming back. She strikes me as somebody who was already leaning towards retirement and now her life has those new aspects.
by JTContinental I read an interview a few months ago where she said she is planning to come back in 2025 sometime, but had a difficult childbirth that led to an emergency C-section, which has had a long recovery time.
by
JTContinental Fastbackss wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2024 11:14 am
It's got to be a terrible feeling finishing between 99-104 and the rankings, starting your off-season, and then halfway through it finding out you are not in the main draw of AO
And instead Jodie Burrage is…
For context the current 99-104 ranked players are Nuria Parrizas Diaz, Yuliana Starodubtseva, Rebecca Marino, Harriet Dart, Alycia Parks, and Sara Errani.
For the men it’s Jacob Fearnly, Federico Coria, Lucas Pouille, Dominik Koepfer, Mattia Bellucci, and Marton Fucsovics
by ashkor87 I am looking forward to Rybakina coming back strong.. dont expect Swiatek to win this.. conditions are too fast for her, perhaps.. Sabalenka again, then, or Coco - possibly Rybakina..hoping for Noskova and Andreeva to do well..
by ashkor87 Probabilities:
Sabalenka 40%
Coco 40%
Rybakina 10%
Field 10%
Men;
Sinner 80%
Djokovic 10%
DeMinaur 5%
Alcaraz 5%
by
dave g ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 9:22 pm
This is a Sunday start.
There are no entry lists out yet but this is the general discussion thread so I think it's okay to start a thread like this.
Actually, according to the website (
https://ausopen.com/schedule#!pre-tournament), this is a SATURDAY start. According to the website, not only is the tournament adding an additional day of Round 1 play, but they are also shifting the tournament one day earlier. So, whereas the tournament went Monday - Sunday in 2024, in 2025 the tournament appears to be going from Saturday to Saturday.
This doesn't make complete sense to me. I suppose it is possible the website is wrong, but I will plan as if the website is correct.
by ponchi101 Nope. The website is set to YOUR LOCAL TIME. Because you are in the US, you are seeing SAT to SAT because you are too far back in the time zones. The tournament is actually SUN to SUN.
Go to the top and click off the SHOWING LOCAL TIME button. That way you see the Melbourne schedule.
by
mmmm8 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 02, 2025 5:22 pm
Nope. The website is set to YOUR LOCAL TIME. Because you are in the US, you are seeing SAT to SAT because you are too far back in the time zones. The tournament is actually SUN to SUN.
Go to the top and click off the SHOWING LOCAL TIME button. That way you see the Melbourne schedule.
Thank you! Thought they went insane, thought "local time" meant local time in Melbourne.
by
ashkor87 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2024 7:06 am
Probabilities:
Sabalenka 40%
Coco 40%
Rybakina 10%
Field 10%
Men;
Sinner 80%
Djokovic 10%
DeMinaur 5%
Alcaraz 5%
Revised -
Coco 50
Saba 35
Rybakina 10
Swiatek 4
Field 1 (people here don't like 0!)
Sinner 80
Djokovic 5
Alcaraz 5
DeMinaur 5
Field 5
by ponchi101 It is not that we don't like zero. When you say that the field has zero chance, you are saying that, for example, Muchova has zero chance. Two time slam finalist Paolini has zero chance. Last year finalist and recent YEC champion QW has zero chance. Wimbledon champ Krejcikova has zero chance.
And that is not accurate.
Sabalenka at 35%
Coco at 30.
Swiatek 20
The rest at 15
Sinner at 60
Alcaraz 25
The rest gets the rest.
by ashkor87 I do say they have 0 chance, of actually winning the title...they may do well, of course
Anyway now I say 1%
Btw, Coco won the YEC
by ashkor87 So you think Sabalenka has abetter chance than Coco? I think not, we shall see. Swiatek at 20 is fine, she is a great champion. What about Djokovic? Do you think he has even a 5% chance? I am not sure .
by ashkor87 Coco's service seemed fine, her forehand too..looks like she is on her way to fixing them...must be Daly, her new coach...and confidence.
by ponchi101 The reason I am giving Sabalenka 35% is because it is so hard to repeat at a slam, and of course, three in a row even harder. But I think she hits harder than anybody and it the shots are landing in, that is a winning combo.
Txs for the correction about the YEC.
I have been burned before saying Novak is gone. So I won't. But that Opelka defeat was bad.
by Suliso Why Sinner THAT much higher than anyone else? 50% would be more appropriate, I think.
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 3:44 pm
Why Sinner THAT much higher than anyone else? 50% would be more appropriate, I think.
He is so dominant that, really, it would take some real catastrophe for him not to win. Certainly much more than 50% would you be ok with 60% ?
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 2:30 pm
The reason I am giving Sabalenka 35% is because it is so hard to repeat at a slam, and of course, three in a row even harder. But I think she hits harder than anybody and it the shots are landing in, that is a winning combo.
Txs for the correction about the YEC.
I have been burned before saying Novak is gone. So I won't. But that Opelka defeat was bad.
That three in a row is hard is a fallacy. Probabilities are always Bayesian...given that she has won 2 already, a third is easier, not harder. It is not the same as the probability of winning a major 3 times in a row, given nothing.
by ponchi101 This is the list of players that have won the same slam 3 three years in a row.
Court - AO 69-71
Goolagong- AO 74-76
Graf - AO 88-90. W 91-93,
Seles - AO 91-93, RG 90-92
Henin - RG 05-07
Swiatek - RG 22-24
Martina - W - 82-87
Evert - USO - 75 - 78
Serena - USO - 12-14
It is more than I expected, but it is not an easy thing to do.
by ti-amie Thursday 9 January marks the date the Australian Open men’s and women’s singles draws will be revealed.
From 2.30pm AEDT, the draw will be conducted at the steps of Margaret Court Arena, where defending champions Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner will bring the AO trophies for the occasion.
...
For fans not at Melbourne Park, the draw ceremony will be live-streamed on the Australian Open YouTube channel and Facebook page.
ausopen.com
ETA:
The time difference from US East Coast (NYC) is +16 hours. It's now 11:42a in Melbourne.
by ashkor87 agree with your list but here it the argument:
say a certain player's chances of winning a given major is 30%. Her chances of winning 3 in a row, given nothing as a basis, is 0.3x0.3x0.3, which is 2.7%
But if she has already won 2, chances of winning a third are ATLEAST 30%, more because she has proved she can do it, she likes the conditions, etc.. I would say 40% at least.
That is what I mean by Bayesian.
by Suliso It's 2.7% only if you assume (correctly?) that winning it once doesn't make it easier to win it again.
by Suliso Of course a chance doesn't have a memory.
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:38 pm
Of course a chance doesn't have a memory.
Did you see the entire post? I have clearly pointed out that the chances improve if you have won it before
by
mmmm8 ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:54 pm
Very 1990s Delia catalogue with that layered tank. Going to look awful in motion
by
ptmcmahon ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:31 pm
agree with your list but here it the argument:
say a certain player's chances of winning a given major is 30%. Her chances of winning 3 in a row, given nothing as a basis, is 0.3x0.3x0.3, which is 2.7%
But if she has already won 2, chances of winning a third are ATLEAST 30%, more because she has proved she can do it, she likes the conditions, etc.. I would say 40% at least.
That is what I mean by Bayesian.
i mean if we are calculating the percentage of someone three in a row ... AFTER they won the first two.. .you don't add in the first 0.3 and 0.3. Those have already happened
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
by
ashkor87 ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 5:36 pm
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:31 pm
agree with your list but here it the argument:
say a certain player's chances of winning a given major is 30%. Her chances of winning 3 in a row, given nothing as a basis, is 0.3x0.3x0.3, which is 2.7%
But if she has already won 2, chances of winning a third are ATLEAST 30%, more because she has proved she can do it, she likes the conditions, etc.. I would say 40% at least.
That is what I mean by Bayesian.
i mean if we are calculating the percentage of someone three in a row ... AFTER they won the first two.. .you don't add in the first 0.3 and 0.3. Those have already happened
yes, that is exxactly the fallacy in saying it is very hard to win three in a row - the first two have already happened.
by
JTContinental mmmm8 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 2:51 pm
ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:54 pm
Very 1990s Delia catalogue with that layered tank. Going to look awful in motion
90’s Upholstery Chic
by
skatingfan ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:54 pm
Why are the undergarments on the outside?
by JTContinental 2025 Australian Open Qualifiers
WTA
1 Jana Fett (CRO,28) 134 (rank)
2 Viktorija Golubic (SUI,32) 90
3 Nao Hibino (JPN,30) 143
4 Maja Chwalinska (POL,23) 126
5 Julia Riera (ARG,22) 147
6 Polina Kudermetova (21) 57
7 Daria Snigur (UKR,22) 139
8 Sara Bejlek (CZE,18) 156
9 Kimberly Birrell (AUS,26) 99
10 Destanee Aiava (AUS,24) 195
11 Sijia Wei (CHN,21) 119
12 Anca Todoni (ROM,20) 110
13 Tamara Zidansek (SLO,27) 180
14 Leolia Jeanjean (FRA,29) 149
15 Elena-Gabriela Ruse (ROM,27) 125
16 Veronika Erjavec (SLO,25) 171
ATP
1 Dominik Koepfer (GER,30) 123
2 Lukas Klein (SVK,26) 145
3 Matteo Gigante (ITA,23) 146
4 Tristan Boyer (USA,23) 134
5 Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO,32) 210
6 Thiago Monteiro (BRA,30) 106
7 Gaulthier Onclin (BEL,23) 236
8 Aziz Dougaz (TUN,27) 230
9 Jaime Faria (POR,21) 124
10 Cristian Garin (CHI,28) 151
11 Mitchell Krueger (USA,30) 148
12 Joao Fonseca (BRA,18) 113
13 Hady Habib (LEB,26) 219
14 Kamil Majchrzak (POL,28) 117
15 Martin Landaluce (ESP,19) 143
16 Learner Tien (USA,19) 120
by JTContinental It's a parade of nations on the men's side and a parade of grandmas on the women's. Average qualifying age for the WTA is an elderly 24.6 compared to 23.7 for the ATP.
by Suliso Joao Fonseca, Sara Bejlek and Polina Kudermetova are probably the most "interesting" qualifiers.
by ashkor87 Certainly looking forward to seeing what Fonseca can do...
by jazzyg I was happy to see Koepfer and Zidansek qualify.
Koeper, the only active pro I have ever met and talked to, rose to a career-high 49 last year before injuries knocked him out of the top 100 and forced him to qualify as the top seed. He barely survived his 1st two matches before getting through a little more comfortably yesterday. I hope he gets back into the top 50 this year. He has the game to do it if he keeps his head on straight, which has been a bit of an issue in ths past.
I do not understand why Zidansek never built on her Roland Garros semi from 2021 with that huge forehand she possesses, but I am resigned to the fact it was a one off. Still hope she can at least become relevant, which has not been the case since then.
by
mick1303 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 6:45 pm
This is the list of players that have won the same slam 3 three years in a row.
Court - AO 69-71
Goolagong- AO 74-76
Graf - AO 88-90. W 91-93,
Seles - AO 91-93, RG 90-92
Henin - RG 05-07
Swiatek - RG 22-24
Martina - W - 82-87
Evert - USO - 75 - 78
Serena - USO - 12-14
It is more than I expected, but it is not an easy thing to do.
Additionally:
Hingis won AO in 97-99
by ponchi101 In a nod to Ashkor's argument, it does seem the Aussie is the place to three-peat, for the women.
by
JTContinental Suliso wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:45 am
Joao Fonseca, Sara Bejlek and Polina Kudermetova are probably the most "interesting" qualifiers.
I would add Learner Tien to that list
by
mick1303 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 6:06 pm
In a nod to Ashkor's argument, it does seem the Aussie is the place to three-peat, for the women.
That is if you count Martina's 6 years in a row for one case. But it hides 4 cases of "three-peat".
by JTContinental Hady Habib is the first player from Lebanon to make a grand slam main draw in the Open Era.
by
ponchi101 mick1303 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 6:34 pm
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 6:06 pm
In a nod to Ashkor's argument, it does seem the Aussie is the place to three-peat, for the women.
That is if you count Martina's 6 years in a row for one case. But it hides 4 cases of "three-peat".
I basically discount everything Martina did as "one case", because she was so extraordinary.
She is my GOAT, so her numbers don't apply to "normal" players.
by
meganfernandez I like this so much better than the tight cropped shirt that looks shrunken on her.
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 11:30 pm
by
mick1303 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:38 pm
mick1303 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 6:34 pm
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 6:06 pm
In a nod to Ashkor's argument, it does seem the Aussie is the place to three-peat, for the women.
That is if you count Martina's 6 years in a row for one case. But it hides 4 cases of "three-peat".
I basically discount everything Martina did as "one case", because she was so extraordinary.
She is my GOAT, so her numbers don't apply to "normal" players.
I agree with this. Yes, on the women's side, I also consider Martina the very best. But in this context we were comparing slams against each other, not players.
by
ashkor87 mick1303 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 3:21 pm
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 6:45 pm
This is the list of players that have won the same slam 3 three years in a row.
Court - AO 69-71
Goolagong- AO 74-76
Graf - AO 88-90. W 91-93,
Seles - AO 91-93, RG 90-92
Henin - RG 05-07
Swiatek - RG 22-24
Martina - W - 82-87
Evert - USO - 75 - 78
Serena - USO - 12-14
It is more than I expected, but it is not an easy thing to do.
Additionally:
Hingis won AO in 97-99
Ignore everything before 87..it was the last major and many players did not go... Goolagong and Court did not have many non-Australians challenging them.
Evert at the FO, Nadal at the FO, Sampras at W, Djokovic at the AO, these are not normal human performances, rules dont apply to these folk.
by mick1303 It was the last major from 1978 to 1987. Not the whole time since 1968. In 1977 there were 2 AOs. For uniformity between years in my yearly calculations I consider December Australian Opens as part of next year calendar.
by
mick1303
ChatGPT is just parroting the analysts. But the majority of them rely on past matches, undervaluing the actual analyses of the players development. AI is not yet capable of such analyses. Medvedev will be extremely lucky if he'll reach the quarterfinal to play Sinner. Chances that he wins against Sinner are very slim. The same with Djokovic. It will be quite a success if he'll reach quarters to meet Alcaraz. If he'll be there, his chances against Alcaraz are better than Medvedev's against Sinner. But they are still not good.
by Owendonovan I hate the idea of giving weight to a ChatGP prediction, but here we are.
by
ashkor87 Owendonovan wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 3:39 pm
I hate the idea of giving weight to a ChatGP prediction, but here we are.
oh I am not taking it seriously either, just thought it was cute... the day Chat Gpt does better than me, I will quit playing SP and whatnot!
by ponchi101 I have no idea of how to use ChatGPT. But, is there a way that we can have it play the SP? See how it does?
by ponchi101 MS Copilot cannot play. Just checked.
by
Owendonovan ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:35 pm
I have no idea of how to use ChatGPT. But, is there a way that we can have it play the SP? See how it does?
If at some point AI can beat the house, where does gambling end up? More corrupted?
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:35 pm
I have no idea of how to use ChatGPT. But, is there a way that we can have it play the SP? See how it does?
I would think I can simply ask it every day whom to choose. Today it tells me to pick high seeded players in the early rounds. Djokovic and Swiatek - who aren't even playing today
by ashkor87 Watching Leylah, and also Andreeva..court looks slower than I expected .a bit like Adelaide..will need to revise the probs
Ofcourse, Laver maybe different
Also, it seems a bit cooler, because of impending rain ..that will also make conditions slow
by ashkor87 I hadn't seen Starodubtseva ..does anyone else here think she looks a bit like Badosa?
by
ashkor87 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 12:38 am
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 11, 2025 5:35 pm
I have no idea of how to use ChatGPT. But, is there a way that we can have it play the SP? See how it does?
I would think I can simply ask it every day whom to choose. Today it tells me to pick high seeded players in the early rounds. Djokovic and Swiatek - who aren't even playing today
Tried again .copied the entire oop and fed it in. It suggests QZ. It does suggest it is too early to pick Sabalenka
by ashkor87 On the men, it suggests D Fokina. Tells me to avoid Nishikori!
by ponchi101 Ok. Do you mind keeping doing it. See what it does.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2025 5:40 am
Ok. Do you mind keeping doing it. See what it does.
Yes, second round will be the test
by ashkor87 I will feed the monster only after everyone has entered their picks just in case anyone gets influenced
by ashkor87 Day 2 chatGPT picks- Tiafoe and Pegula
by ponchi101 I don't think it is understanding the rule that you can't pick them again later.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 12:29 am
I don't think it is understanding the rule that you can't pick them again later.
It does .initially it picked Swiatek snd Djokovic but when I reminded it of the rule, it backed off and picked these.
Personally I think they are conservative, but good picks. We shall only know in the second round, I think, how well it understands. Good thing is I didn't have to tell it what Survivor pool is, it told me the rules right away.
by ponchi101 As you say, let's see how it does in the long run. I agree neither Tiafoe nor Pegula will win. But this is a "too early" pick, for me.
by ashkor87 that was a narrow escape for ChatGpt!.. Tiafoe looked shaky.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 13, 2025 1:02 am
As you say, let's see how it does in the long run. I agree neither Tiafoe nor Pegula will win. But this is a "too early" pick, for me.
Pegula, yes, too early.. she will be in the QFs at least for sure..Tiafoe I dont know...may be ok, he is not so solid a player..
by ashkor87 ChatGpt is still alive in both Sps..round 2 will be the real test..will wait till play starts to post..tomorrow is still round 1
by ashkor87 Todays Chat Gpt picks Hurkacz.. a bit risky, in my opinion - Griekspoor has beaten Hurkacz in the past, and I am none too impressed with what I saw of Hurkacz at Wimbledon
by ashkor87 Many 6-0 scores, I wonder what it tells us? Normally, lopsided scores happen more often on slow courts..because if one player is slightly better, he/she can win every game, the serve not being much of an advantage.. but then there are many 7-6, and 7-5 scores too, usually a sign neither player is able to break through because it is too easy to hold serve, that is, the court is fast.
by ti-amie Ugo Humbert strolls by while this was happening. Where was the security?
by ashkor87 Today ChatGPT says Humbert and Badosa..good picks, I would say
by ti-amie I hope they don't release tomorrow's OoP as late as they did Day 4's.
by ashkor87 ChatGPT did better than I did, in the men's sp at least..! Korda took me out, Humbert won
by ashkor87 Today ChatGPT says Khachanov and Keys. Both good picks.
by ashkor87 Isn't it strange that Pegula had never beaten Mertens before?
by
ptmcmahon ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:14 am
Isn't it strange that Pegula had never beaten Mertens before?
Not too strange since it was only 3 matches, one was on clay, and the other two were 2020 and 2021 before she was in top 20.
And not like she was 0-10 or anything extreme
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_e_smile.gif)
by ti-amie GEMS is still alive in the tournament.
by ashkor87 Chatgpt choices for today are Paul and Pavlyuchenkova
by
ashkor87 ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 4:10 pm
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:14 am
Isn't it strange that Pegula had never beaten Mertens before?
Not too strange since it was only 3 matches, one was on clay, and the other two were 2020 and 2021 before she was in top 20.
And not like she was 0-10 or anything extreme
Strange to me..Pegula is never beaten by someone below her, and I always thought of Mertens as that ..a solid mid-Tier 2 player. I use Pegula as a benchmark nowadays because she is so consistent ..
by
skatingfan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 12:55 am
Chatgpt choices for today are Paul and Pavlyuchenkova
2-0 again today - is Chatgpt going to win the pools?
by
ptmcmahon ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:00 am
Strange to me..Pegula is never beaten by someone below her, and I always thought of Mertens as that ..a solid mid-Tier 2 player. I use Pegula as a benchmark nowadays because she is so consistent ..
Well in 2020 Pegula was a qualifier and Mertens seeded 14th in Cincinnati.
And in 2021 Mertens was ranked 10th and Pegula unseeded in Dubai.
So in this head to head, Pegula only was beaten by someone below her once, and it was on clay - which is Mertens best surface.
Had Mertens been 3-0 in 2024 matches it may have been surprising, but 2/3 of these matches were quite awhile ago.
by ashkor87 By 'below' i don't mean in rankings...which I have no belief/confidence in. I classify players into Tiers...Pegula is top tier2, doesn't normally lose to tier2 players. (Though today she lost to Danilovic!) Maybe Pegula is fading..
by ptmcmahon All I mean was ... in 2020 and early 2021 where you thinking Pegula was better than Mertens? I think you may be projecting how you feel about her now with back then.
by mick1303 Not believing in rankings is very odd. They are very objective - you win certain round of a tournament and you get a predetermined amount of points. It's like not believing in electricity ))
by
ashkor87 mick1303 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:21 pm
Not believing in rankings is very odd. They are very objective - you win certain round of a tournament and you get a predetermined amount of points. It's like not believing in electricity ))
Rankings tell you the past, like financial statements. I am more interested in the present and future, i trust my own judgement for that
by ashkor87 In fact Pegula is a perfect example..in 2021 her ranking was low but anyone who saw her play would say she is better than that. Look at Osaka, Bencic etc today - does the ranking make any sense? Rankings take time to adjust, you can see the quality of the player with your eyes, in front of you.
by ashkor87 Today chatgpt says Sonego and Paolini. I really wonder why it is so confident Paolini can beat Svitolina. I am not, for sure!
by
ashkor87 ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 9:46 pm
All I mean was ... in 2020 and early 2021 where you thinking Pegula was better than Mertens? I think you may be projecting how you feel about her now with back then.
You may be right but Pegula won the Washington open in 2019, when she first came to my attention...
by ashkor87 Watching BHM vs Kudermetova..both struggling to put the ball away..court clearly not all that fast.
by ashkor87 BHM has so many shots, great volleyer too..why hasn't she done better at majors?
by ashkor87 Kudermetova has enough power to hit through the court, and gets enough time on this court...not surprising she is slaughtering BHM's second serve
by mick1303 If only Monfils did not waste all those years on clowning... He does not have any weaknesses in his game - neither technical nor physical. Only one but a major one - mentality.
by
ti-amie ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 3:59 am
Today chatgpt says Sonego and Paolini. I really wonder why it is so confident Paolini can beat Svitolina. I am not, for sure!
Does Svitolina's win take the AI out of the contest?
by
ti-amie mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 8:42 am
If only Monfils did not waste all those years on clowning... He does not have any weaknesses in his game - neither technical nor physical. Only one but a major one - mentality.
I believe Koenig said tonight that he should have at minimum one Slam. All that time wasted.
by
ashkor87 ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:07 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 3:59 am
Today chatgpt says Sonego and Paolini. I really wonder why it is so confident Paolini can beat Svitolina. I am not, for sure!
Does Svitolina's win take the AI out of the contest?
Yes, women's anyway. It has picked Sonego so still alive on the men's..
by
ponchi101 mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 8:42 am
If only Monfils did not waste all those years on clowning... He does not have any weaknesses in his game - neither technical nor physical. Only one but a major one - mentality.
High on the list of underachievers. 100% with you.
by
JTContinental ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 10:08 am
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 18, 2025 8:42 am
If only Monfils did not waste all those years on clowning... He does not have any weaknesses in his game - neither technical nor physical. Only one but a major one - mentality.
I believe Koenig said tonight that he should have at minimum one Slam. All that time wasted.
He was so dominant in the junior ranks that I thought he would be a major player at grand slams, and he hasn't even been to a final.
by ashkor87 Today (day 8) chatGPT picks Djokovic. It lost yesterday on the women's side by picking Paolini
by ashkor87 Saba has been complaining repeatedly about how slow the conditions are, said she didn't see any point in going big on serve because there is no reward for it. Pegula apparently said it felt like s clay court match
It may be the balls, but whatever it is, conditions are slower than last year. Will help Swiatek...will certainly make it harder for Andreeva to do much against Sabalenka today
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skatingfan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 12:45 am
Saba has been complaining repeatedly about how slow the conditions are, said she didn't see any point in going big on serve because there is no reward for it. Pegula apparently said it felt like s clay court match
It may be the balls, but whatever it is, conditions are slower than last year. Will help Swiatek...will certainly make it harder for Andreeva to do much against Sabalenka today
It's also been unseasonably cool during the first week - weather more like the second week of the US Open than what we would normally expect in Australia.
by ashkor87 The fact that Pavlyuchenkova beat Vekic 6-0 and that Keys is doing so well, I take to be evidence that the conditions (court, balls, air) are on the slow side
by ashkor87 Can Navarro beat Kasatkina tomorrow? First meeting, it seems. I am interested to see how Navarro stands up as my 'benchmark' - Kasatkina is the same class as Navarro, so Navaro should win..we shall see. Again, if conditions are slow and heavy, that will work in Navarro',s favor..Kasatkina is not a power player, she is quick and subtle..
by ashkor87 ChatGPT lives on, with Djoko..will post tomorrow's pick after 530am my time
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ashkor87 mick1303 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:21 pm
Not believing in rankings is very odd. They are very objective - you win certain round of a tournament and you get a predetermined amount of points. It's like not believing in electricity ))
Rankings would say #19 Khachanov is better than ,#42 Michelsen. My eyes tell me the opposite. We just saw what happened
This is just an example of course.
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ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 7:41 am
The fact that Pavlyuchenkova beat Vekic 6-0 and that Keys is doing so well, I take to be evidence that the conditions (court, balls, air) are on the slow side
The 6-0 set was after Vekic got injured. She finished the match just because she is a professional.
She injured her right knee, the one that was operated.
by ashkor87 Today ChatGPT says DeMinaur
by ashkor87 I disagree though...if the court were faster, yes but on this court Michelsen has more ways to win a point ..
by ashkor87 ChatG clearly knows a thing or two about tennis!
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Suliso It just goes by rankings in which you don't believe.
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
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ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:01 pm
It just goes by rankings in which you don't believe.
No, it looks up all kinds of media stories, it even tells me which ones...
by ashkor87 ChatGPT says Zverev today. Good pick.
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Jeff from TX ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 1:11 am
ChatGPT says Zverev today. Good pick.
Same one I made, although I hope Paul pulls off the upset
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ashkor87 Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:38 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 1:11 am
ChatGPT says Zverev today. Good pick.
Same one I made, although I hope Paul pulls off the upset
I think everybody has picked Zverev today ..the other match is too risky
by ponchi101 But two people picked from it. One on each side.
Probably forced to.
by texasniteowl There is probably a better thread for this, but is Brad Gilbert annoying anyone else more than usual? What is up with that affected weird pronunciation of backhand that he has been doing? (Obviously this is mostly directed to USA viewers of coverage on ESPN.)
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meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:20 am
Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:38 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 1:11 am
ChatGPT says Zverev today. Good pick.
Same one I made, although I hope Paul pulls off the upset
I think everybody has picked Zverev today ..the other match is too risky
I toyed with taking Alcaraz, thinking this could be Zverev’s year, but I just can’t see Zverev beating him in the semis. Alcaraz just has that extra gear that Zverev doesn’t. He’ll win most of those matchups, especially if the court is playing at all quick. (And I think Alcaraz will beat Djokovic in 5.)
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meganfernandez texasniteowl wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:05 am
There is probably a better thread for this, but is Brad Gilbert annoying anyone else more than usual? What is up with that affected weird pronunciation of backhand that he has been doing? (Obviously this is mostly directed to USA viewers of coverage on ESPN.)
I haven’t heard it. How’s is he saying it?
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texasniteowl meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:03 am
I haven’t heard it. How’s is he saying it?
so instead of saying backhand like sack he's saying something like Bach (the composer), so Bach-hand. at first I thought I misheard it or it was a one time thing. But I've heard him doing it every broadcast I swear. I know I'm not imagining it!
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ponchi101 texasniteowl wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:05 am
There is probably a better thread for this, but is Brad Gilbert annoying anyone else more than usual? What is up with that affected weird pronunciation of backhand that he has been doing? (Obviously this is mostly directed to USA viewers of coverage on ESPN.)
The concept of Gilbert annoying people MORE than usual is hard to accept. He just simply will not stop talking.
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ponchi101 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:01 am
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:20 am
Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 2:38 am
Same one I made, although I hope Paul pulls off the upset
I think everybody has picked Zverev today ..the other match is too risky
I toyed with taking Alcaraz, thinking this could be Zverev’s year, but I just can’t see Zverev beating him in the semis. Alcaraz just has that extra gear that Zverev doesn’t. He’ll win most of those matchups, especially if the court is playing at all quick.
(And I think Alcaraz will beat Djokovic in 5.)
Will never cease to amaze me how knowledgeable people like us can still get it wrong.
By now, I just hope Ashkor will be right and Sinner will be the winner, now that Carlitos is gone.
by jazzyg If Sinner's own health issues go away, he is the favorite. I had him beating Djokovic in the final before the tournament started and see no reason to change now, although I'm certainly not discounting Djokovic's chances.
by ashkor87 Chatgpt says Shelton today
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ashkor87 texasniteowl wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:28 am
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 6:03 am
I haven’t heard it. How’s is he saying it?
so instead of saying backhand like sack he's saying something like Bach (the composer), so Bach-hand. at first I thought I misheard it or it was a one time thing. But I've heard him doing it every broadcast I swear. I know I'm not imagining it!
There are others who say it that way too .i remember Vic Braden, a really great coach, his pronunciation was like that too. May be a regional accent?
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texasniteowl ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 11:55 pm
There are others who say it that way too .i remember Vic Braden, a really great coach, his pronunciation was like that too. May be a regional accent?
I guess maybe? But obviously I've heard Brad Gilbert before...for years now...sadly...and I don't remember that before.
by jazzyg Gilbert has always said it that way to my knowledge.
You got it exactly right: Bach hand, and he exaggerates the Bach part with a strange inflection.
by ti-amie Did anyone see this?
by ashkor87 No mens matches today so chatG gets the day off. Already out on the women's side.
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ashkor87 ChatG had already picked Djoko so it is running out of room now..forced to pick Sinner. In any case, it is out of picks after tomorrow
![😭](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/1f62d.svg)
by Suliso ChatG probably wins it now.
by ashkor87 I am quitting this game forever! I mean, if we are beaten by a low-level AI engine, what good are we? Me, anyway! Still smarting...
by Suliso We as humans take too many risks
by ponchi101 Or we tend to overthink things.
by ashkor87 So nice to see a pair of 15 year old girls (sisters?) win the junior doubles, one of them K.Penickova finished runner up in singles .at 15 that is impressive ..
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JTContinental texasniteowl wrote: ↑Tue Jan 21, 2025 5:05 am
There is probably a better thread for this, but is Brad Gilbert annoying anyone else more than usual? What is up with that affected weird pronunciation of backhand that he has been doing? (Obviously this is mostly directed to USA viewers of coverage on ESPN.)
He's been doing it for years along with "fearhand." He drives me nuts more than any other commentator.
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ti-amie The Tennis Letter @thetennisletter.bsky.social
Jackie Chan watching the Sabalenka and Keys match at the Australian Open.
Jackie is a women's tennis fan this is not a drill
![😭](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/1f62d.svg)
❤
![Image](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nin65xmpfflkc32wf7ztxcx2/bafkreibtdevcs3fhxaej6xwgkud254vvd7pgvneib5u7c2n6klrmg3mbju@jpeg)
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ti-amie The Tennis Letter
@thetennisletter.bsky.social
Aryna Sabalenka's fitness coach, Jason Stacy, has a tiger on his head for the Australian Open final.
Last time he did this, she won the US Open.
Keeping the tradition alive
![Image](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:nin65xmpfflkc32wf7ztxcx2/bafkreiczjpqnqykjk4qkbbumxibeek5upkdqoexef2xzp5v7tix7owmugu@jpeg)
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ti-amie 2025 Champions - Complete List
Men's singles
Italy Jannik Sinner
Women's singles
United States Madison Keys
Men's doubles
Finland Harri Heliövaara / United Kingdom Henry Patten
Women's doubles
Czech Republic Kateřina Siniaková / United States Taylor Townsend
Mixed doubles
Australia Olivia Gadecki / Australia John Peers
Wheelchair men's singles
United Kingdom Alfie Hewett
Wheelchair women's singles
Japan Yui Kamiji
Wheelchair quad singles
Netherlands Sam Schröder
Wheelchair men's doubles
United Kingdom Alfie Hewett / United Kingdom Gordon Reid
Wheelchair women's doubles
China Li Xiaohui / China Wang Ziying
Wheelchair quad doubles
United Kingdom Andy Lapthorne / Netherlands Sam Schröder
Boys' singles
Switzerland Henry Bernet
Girls' singles
Japan Wakana Sonobe
Boys' doubles
United States Maxwell Exsted / Czech Republic Jan Kumstát
Girls' doubles
United States Annika Penickova / United States Kristina Penickova
Wheelchair boys' singles
United States Charlie Cooper
Wheelchair girls' singles
Brazil Vitória Miranda
Wheelchair boys' doubles
Brazil Luiz Calixto / United States Charlie Cooper
Wheelchair girls' doubles
Belgium Luna Gryp / Brazil Vitória Miranda
by ti-amie
Madison and her champagne ending the Australian Open for this year.