Business/Markets/Stocks/Economics Random, Random

[ti-amie]

I’m seeing a lot of people gearing up to go all-in with shorts and puts at open. And honestly, that makes sense. The market will likely dip again Monday — especially if more tariff retaliation news surfaces.

But here’s the thing: be careful. This play assumes that this fear isn’t already priced into the recent drop. If the market has already baked in the worst-case scenario, and instead we get a headline about fresh negotiations or de-escalation, you could get caught on the wrong side of the bounce.

You’re right to plan for another drop. I am too. But as a technical trader, I’m reminding myself: Use your assumptions to guide action — not to dictate it. Wait for confirmation. Watch for volume, trend breaks, or momentum shifts before you enter. Don’t just trade the narrative.

[ti-amie]

[ti-amie]

Just like an electrical circuit breaker stops electricity to prevent damage, a market circuit breaker halts trading to prevent panic during extreme market volatility. These rules were created to prevent a repeat of the staggering 1987 market crash, when the Dow ( We're sorry, quotes are currently unavailable.3 days ago
What are trading halts and market circuit breakers? | Fidelity

Fidelity
https://www.fidelity.com › trading-investing › trading-h...

George Pearkes
‪@peark.es‬
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED FOR TOPIX FUTURES

Overview
The Tokyo Stock Price Index, commonly known as the TOPIX, is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan, along with the Nikkei 225. The TOPIX tracks the entire market of domestic companies and covers most stocks in the Prime market and some stocks in the Standard market. Wikipedia

‪NomNomNomChomsky‬ ‪@stusherman.bsky.social‬
·
5m
NIKKEI 225 future circuit breaker as well

[ti-amie]

U.S. crude oil falls below $60 a barrel to lowest since 2021 on tariff-fueled recession fears
Published Sun, Apr 6 20257:00 PM EDTUpdated 2 Hours Ago
Tanaya Macheel
@tanayamacheel

U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession.

Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.

Worries are mounting that tariffs could lead to higher prices for businesses, which could lead to a slowdown in economic activity that would ultimately hurt demand for oil.

The tariffs, which are set to take effect this week, “would likely push the U.S. and possibly global economy into recession this year,” according to JPMorgan. The firm on Thursday raised its odds of a recession this year to 60% following the tariff rollout, up from 40%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/us-crud ... fears.html

[ti-amie]

Trump says he doesn’t want stocks to go down, ‘but sometimes you have to take medicine’
Published Sun, Apr 6 20258:19 PM EDT
Tanaya Macheel
@tanayamacheel

Key Points
President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he is not intentionally engineering the ongoing sell-off, “but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

He cited the trade deficit with China as his rationale for pressing on with his tariffs plan despite the recent pain in the markets.

The comments came as U.S. stock futures dropped, pointing to big losses at Monday’s open.

President Donald Trump said Sunday evening that he is not intentionally engineering the ongoing stock market sell-off, but said little to try and dissuade it.

“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night when asked about the markets.

The comments came as U.S. stock futures dropped on Sunday evening, with Dow Jones Industrial average futures sliding 4.1%, accelerating losses that carried through from Thursday and Friday and indicating more selling is likely to hit Monday morning.

He cited the trade deficit with China as his rationale for pressing on with his tariffs plan despite the recent pain in the markets.

“We have to solve our trade deficit with China,” he said. “We have a trillion-dollar trade deficit with China, hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose with China. And unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”

“I’m willing to deal with China,” he added, “but they have to solve their surplus.”

He added that he spoke with European and Asian leaders over the weekend on the tariffs rolled out by his administration, which are expected to take effect in the coming week.

Trump’s comments echo those made by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who on Sunday said the administration will remain steadfast in its plans for reciprocal tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, even in the face of the global stock market sell-off. White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said the stock market drop is not part of an intentional strategy.

The comments by Trump and team come after the president himself shared a link to a video on his Truth Social account, which claimed the president was causing the markets to plummet on purpose as part of his broader economic plans.

The video, which initially appeared on TikTok in March, was shared by Trump on April 4, two days after his tariffs announcement.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/trump-s ... icine.html

[ti-amie]

Australian share market sheds $160bn on opening as US trade war gloom spreads across globe

Benchmark S&P/ASX 200 sank 6% within minutes of market opening – sending it back to levels not seen since late 2023

Jonathan Barrett Business editor
Sun 6 Apr 2025 20.37 EDT
Share
More than $160bn has been wiped off the Australian share market, as fears of a full-blown trade war grip investors.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 sank more than 6% to trade below the 7,200 point mark within minutes of the market opening on Monday, sending it back to levels not seen since late 2023.

The huge price falls are diminishing the value of almost all investment and superannuation portfolios with shares, building on the market falls recorded last week immediately after Donald Trump announced the details of his “liberation day” tariff plan.

There were few places to hide on the ASX on Monday, with everything from banking to mining and energy stocks down sharply.

Shares in Australia’s two biggest listed companies, Commonwealth Bank and BHP, were both down more than 8% in early trading.

The sell-off follows a sharp fall on Wall Street on Friday, weighed down by China’s retaliatory tariffs to Donald Trump’s new trade regime.

Traders view Australia’s economy as being closely tied to China through their significant trading relationship.

The Australian dollar also fell sharply on Monday morning, to trade below 60 US cents, down from about 64 US cents mid-last week, making overseas travel and imports more costly.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... -war-fears

[ti-amie]

Extortion by any other name...

Aaron Rupar
‪@atrupar.com‬



Trump calls for Europe to pay reparations to the US: "We put a big tariff on Europe. They are coming to the table. They want to talk, but there's no talk unless they pay us a lot of money on a yearly basis number one for president but also for past."

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lm6neq7col22

Video at the link

[ponchi101]

Oil at $59.
I'm screwed.

[ti-amie]

Joey Politano‬ ‪@josephpolitano.bsky.social‬
·
30m
More good news out of Europe

GERMANY'S DAX INDEX FALLS 10%; RHEINMETALL DROPS 27%

Things going well in Europe I see

FRENCH BANKS SHARES HALTED AT OPENING

[Suliso]

RHEINMETALL DROPS 27%

Now "only" 10%. More seriously EU defense companies and Rheinmetall in particular have been great investments recently. Over 1 year a solid 105% profit.

[dryrunguy]

I'm trying not to panic. But it feels like my 401K is rapidly descending into an 01K again. My brother handles all of this stuff for me. He's on a cruise around the world (off the coast of western Europe at the moment) and won't be back until May. He keeps telling me, "Don't worry. This was going to happen sooner or later. It was just a matter of what would trigger it." Just 2 days ago, he was far more upset poor weather cancelled his port stops in Croatia and Montenegro.

Seriously, I find comfort in that.

[Suliso]

Let's repeat together 100 times: stock market is a long time game and weekly/monthly stock fluctuations are irrelevant. If you need that part of money in the next 3 years you shouldn't keep it in stocks.

I'm min 10 years from retirement and couldn't care less about this part. A lot more scary would be if I lost my job.

[ponchi101]

I will never be able to retire, but oil companies are very quick to respond nervously to events like these. So, the first thing they do is stop investments.
Which means that I may not see work for a while, after it looked like things were going to improve.
It is not only the stock market. The commodities markets also matter.

[Suliso]

Looks like tariffs on China going up to 104%. I can't imagine them capitulating like Donald demands.

[dave g]

I am thinking that the markets will probably recover in about four years.