by dave g Congratulations to the 15 people who made it to the update picks and results thread.
ajstew GRIEKSPOOR OTTE 32 SONEGO 27 PAUL 30 VAN DE ZANDSCHULP GOFFIN FRITZ NORRIE Kyrgios
andre8735 Basilashvili Krajonovic Kecmanovic Garin Paul Nakashima Norrie Fritz Goffin
bankerb4 VESELY BAUTISTA AGUT OTTE SONEGO NORRIE NAKASHIMA DJOKOVIC FRITZ GOFFIN
Bismarck Opelka Reilly. de Minaur Alex. Otte Oscar. Kubler Jason. van Rijthoven Nakashima Norrie Fritz Goffin
CyborgShoes Vesely Thompson Kecmanovic Sonego Paul Nakashima Norrie Fritz Goffin
Eskimo53 KOKKINAKIS SOCK KECMANOVIC Sonego GOFFIN Nakashima NORRIE DE MINAUR
Fastbackss Tiafoe De Minaur Otte Fritz Paul Nakashima Norrie Kyrgios Goffin
Michelle_fenlon Isner Bonzi Kecmanovic Van De Zandschulp Van Rijthoven Nakashima Norrie De Minaur
Naughtyboiosu PAUL Bonzi Otte GARIN Norrie Nakashima Djokovic Fritz Goffin
Pjstew MURRAY KRAJINOVIC OTTE DE MINAUR ALCARAZ VAN DE ZANDSCHULP Goffin Fritz NORRIE Kyrgios
ptmcmahon Paul Brooksby KECMANOVIC SONEGO ALCARAZ NAKASHIMA Sinner Fritz Norrie Kyrgios
rktct2b PAUL Bonzi Otte Sonego Alcaraz VAN DE ZANDSCHULP Norrie De Minaur
ron@tennisreporters VAN RIJTHOVEN NAKASHIMA KECMANOVIC GARIN PAUL VAN DE ZANDSCHULP NORRIE KYRGIOS GOFFIN
SoulCandy93 MANNARINO KRAJINOVIC OTTE GARIN PAUL FRITZ NORRIE DE MINAUR
TheCalmness VAN RIJTHOVEN THOMPSON KECMANOVIC SONEGO ALCARAZ NAKASHIMA GOFFIN DE MINAUR
by dave g Day 8 Pick Summary
Start 15
No Picks 0
Left 15
Frits 8
de Minaur 5
Kyrgios 2
Start 15
Alive 10
Dead 5
in LImbo 0
by
Cuckoo4Coco The Garin Machine knocks out the Aussie and takes 3 with him.
by jazzyg Good thing I lost yesterday because right now is the first time I've realized they no longer divide the men's and women's draws for the second week. I knew Manic Monday was gone but thought there was only one extra pick, with all the men's quarters on Wednesday and the semis on Friday and the women's quarters on Tuesday followed by the women's semis on Thursday.
I would already have boxed myself into a hole I could not get out of.
by
Fastbackss Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:44 pm
The Garin Machine knocks out the Aussie and takes 3 with him.
The frustration of this game. I thrice went to change my pick to Garin but didn't have the fortitude to do so...
by
Cuckoo4Coco Fastbackss wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:32 pm
Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 2:44 pm
The Garin Machine knocks out the Aussie and takes 3 with him.
The frustration of this game. I thrice went to change my pick to Garin but didn't have the fortitude to do so...
That is a tough one, but it also looks like you made it really tough with already picking Fritz the time before.
I looked over my pick of Alcaraz that knocked me out. My alternative pick on that day would have been Norrie. He of course won. That is all great. Then in these matches I would have picked Fritz. It then would have come back to either picking Norrie or Djokovic. I wouldn't have been able to pick Norrie because I already did and would have ended up having to pick Djokovic. This is where the problem starts. So I already used Kyrgios and I would have used Fritz as well. So that leaves either Nadal or Garin. I would be stupid not to pick Nadal. This is where it ends for me. The remaining players are Djokovic, Norrie, Kyrgios, & Nadal. I used them all.
by
ponchi101 Playing the game of "What I could have done?" usually leads to madness.
When I play that one, it invariably leads to "If I had not clicked that link in the Jon Wertheim's 2004 Roland Garros report, I would not be suffering this thing, 8 times a year".
Seriously. Soon after I joined TAT1.0, I started wondering a bit about how tough this really is. We worked it out, and it is really difficult as hell to beat the draw. Something like "1 in several Millions" chance. Of course, SOMEBODY (or bodies) has to win the pool; whomever stands at the end wins it. But in 6 slams already, since the re-start with TAT2.0, only one person has beat ONE draw. Twelve pools already, around 180 players in each. Only one has beaten the draw. It is super hard.
by
Cuckoo4Coco ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:44 pm
Playing the game of "What I could have done?" usually leads to madness.
When I play that one, it invariably leads to "If I had not clicked that link in the Jon Wertheim's 2004 Roland Garros report, I would not be suffering this thing, 8 times a year".
Seriously. Soon after I joined TAT1.0, I started wondering a bit about how tough this really is. We worked it out, and it is really difficult as hell to beat the draw. Something like "1 in several Millions" chance. Of course, SOMEBODY (or bodies) has to win the pool; whomever stands at the end wins it. But in 6 slams already, since the re-start with TAT2.0, only one person has beat ONE draw. Twelve pools already, around 180 players in each. Only one has beaten the draw. It is super hard.
I really just did that to see if I stood any chance at beating the whole thing, but it wouldn't have worked. The game is extremely fun and I can't wait til the US Open one starts. I can't believe though that when the US Open is going on for most of it I will be back in school. School starts back for me September 1st. It is weird to think the Summer will go that fast.
I see you have won the SP 3 times, but I guess that was not by beating the draw completely?
by ponchi101 I have never beaten the draw. And, this year, Wimbledon became more difficult than ever. You see, until last year, all QF's (for each draw) were played in one day. So you really only needed 11 correct picks: 8 days until the QF (2 days per round), and then one pick for QF, one for SF and one for F. This year they split the QF's, so you need 12 correct picks.
At RG, next year, you will see the most difficult SP. Starting on a first Sunday, RG goes for 15 days, which means 13 picks. It is tougher than all the rest because 1R gets split into three sessions so, if you survive those, you have already burnt three players, and you are not even in the second round. It is super tough.
by jazzyg I and two others beat the men's draw at Wimbledon last year.
But it was a little easier than Ponch said because the round of 16 was all played on one day, too. You had to get six picks right in the first week and four in the second week for a total of 10. That took the element of blind luck out of it that is required in all of the others, with RG requiring a 13th pick since its first round extends over three days. I beat the draw at the Aussie Open once in the 1.0 version, and it required Almagro to fail to serve out a match three times in a row against Ferrer along the way.
by ponchi101 I didn't record that you (and yes, two more) had beaten the draw. Txs, I updated that cell in the HALL OF FAME count.
by ptmcmahon Today's picks:
7 - Goffin
3 - Norrie
My Sinner pick is now looking not as good - I'm the only one who's used him so I won't be able to beat draw if he closes this out. Everyone else had picked either Goffin or Norrie already and picked the other one - so will all have a pick on this half left at least.
by
Cuckoo4Coco ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:15 pm
Today's picks:
7 - Goffin
3 - Norrie
My Sinner pick is now looking not as good - I'm the only one who's used him so I won't be able to beat draw if he closes this out. Everyone else had picked either Goffin or Norrie already and picked the other one - so will all have a pick on this half left at least.
Not quite over for Novak yet as he is up in the 3rd set a break.
by dave g Day 9 Pick Summary:
Start 10
No Picks 0
Left 10
Goffin 7
Norrie 3
Start 10
Alive 3
Dead 7
In Limbo 0
Not suprisingly, all of the picks are from one match.
by
ptmcmahon Looking ahead (why not
)
For the 10 people left:
- All 10 have Nadal left
- Only Ron has Fritz left
- 8 have Krygios left - only Fastbackss and Ron have used him
- 7 have Garin left - only Andre, Naughtyboiosu, and Ron have used him
So looks like Ron can't beat the draw. 3 people will have only one choice if they save Nadal - which of course is no guarantee. Interesting to see tomorrows picks for those of us that survive today (3 or 7 of us will.)
by ponchi101 I think the split Norrie/Goffin was kind of odd. A very close match, but Norrie is ranked higher and playing at home.
by ptmcmahon I was the only one who got to freely pick from that match. Everyone else had used Norrie or Goffin already.
by
ponchi101 ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:42 pm
I was the only one who got to freely pick from that match. Everyone else had used Norrie or Goffin already.
Aaaaaahhh... Got it.
by Pjstew Good match Goffin pickers. Hell of a match. Thanks Norrie
by ponchi101 And then there were three.
Belgium beers at the Pub. There plenty of good ones.
by
ptmcmahon Wait… I’m against ajstew and pjstew in the final three?
by
ponchi101 ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:43 pm
Wait… I’m against ajstew and pjstew in the final three?
Needless to say, you are cooked!
by
Cuckoo4Coco ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:43 pm
Wait… I’m against ajstew and pjstew in the final three?
Man you're stewed.... whoops I mean screwed.
by
ptmcmahon All Canadian final three too
by dave g Day 10 Pick Summary
Start 3
No Pick 0
Left 3
Kyrgios 3
Alive 3
by ponchi101 I guess by now, the path is clear. Whomever they have left for the Kyrgios match, then Novak. Good luck, gang.
by
ptmcmahon It's only clear if Fritz wins. Then we all just have Djokovic left.
If Nadal wins .. we have to give real thought to if we think Nadal can beat Krygios or not. Before today I wasn't worried about it, but right now going to be hard to pick Nadal with much confidence. I still may go Nadal if he wins, but it's not a clear choice for me at least.
A Nadal loss guarantees we three all "win" the SP (assuming we type Djokovic in the semis thread) but it means we can't beat the draw. A bit torn over what to hope for
by ponchi101 You are faced with that Faustian choice. Good luck!
by ptmcmahon Nadal closed strong and looked "better" by end of the match, so I'm back leaning towards choosing him. But it's not a slam dunk.
by ajstew The choice may be made for us before the pick even has to be made. I don't like the sound of Nadal's interview... could very easily withdraw before the next round depending on how he feels the next day. I don't think he'll step on the court if he feels there is no chance.
by ponchi101 Would mean three winners. You all have used Norrie, so you get to pick Djokovic, and no matter what, all lose that day, or run out of picks.
Yes, I would set the alarm clock for very early on Friday. And check those news.
by
ptmcmahon Three winners if we all actually get our Djokovic pick in that is
I'm contemplating switching pick to Djokovic and then setting alarm so I would have a chance to change it if I want
by Pjstew Good game guys. Beating the draw feels better but not much you can do.
by ponchi101 It would have been nice because with the new Wimby split-QF's, and when the new kids take over, beating the draw will become a titanic task. You guys played this very well.
by ptmcmahon Agreed… this might be as close anyone gets for a while. Well, I’m sure we’ll have a couple more Djokovic wins to plan around at least.
by dave g Oops!
Semifinal Pick Summary
Start 3
Djokovic 3
Alive (sort of) 3
All three remaining contestants are out ouf picks for the finals. So, we have three winners of the ATP Suicide Draw Pool: ajstew, Pjstew and ptmcmahon.
by Cuckoo4Coco Congrats to all three.
by Pjstew Three Canadian winners and also the first one that my twin brother and I have won together. 4th title for me but has been years in between. Still missing an elusive US Open. Hopefully this year. See you guys at the US.
by Jeff from TX Congratulations to the 3 winners!