An early look at the US Open

[Suliso]

I'm officially taking away Iga's USO favorite "title". She's currently nothing of the sort, not even first among equals. I now predict R16 or earlier exit.

[ponchi101]

Well, you beat me to it. I know Keys is a fine player, has a more firepower than Iga, and the match is not over, but I can't see Iga as a favorite over Halep (Toronto) and whomever wins Cincy.
Again, not the losses. Anybody can lose. But the scores in her last losses have been lopsided, to say the least.

[meganfernandez]

I'm officially taking away Iga's USO favorite "title". She's currently nothing of the sort, not even first among equals. I now predict R16 or earlier exit.

Well, you beat me to it. I know Keys is a fine player, has a more firepower than Iga, and the match is not over, but I can't see Iga as a favorite over Halep (Toronto) and whomever wins Cincy.
Again, not the losses. Anybody can lose. But the scores in her last losses have been lopsided, to say the least.

Match isn't over!

[Suliso]

Surprisingly it isn't over yet, but that doesn't really affect my judgment. It's hardly based on this match alone.

[ponchi101]

What Suliso says. Maddie is a fantastic striker of the ball, but she is also a bit all over the map. Iga is making a good late push but this was a match that in April would have been over a while back, in Iga's favor.
She is just not playing well enough to be a favorite for the USO. Especially, to be a favorite the way she was for RG.

[Suliso]

Someone might ask who are the favorites then? No strong ones, but I would pick both finalists at Canadian Open and Cinncinati as slightly ahead of the pack.

[ponchi101]

I am waiting for the end of these two tournaments and I will then, still, be very iffy because building a streak of matches in the WTA is almost impossible these days. That was the reason Iga's 37 streak was so impressive; it is very odd nowadays.
Won't be surprised if Halep losses (@ USO) in 3R. If Ons is gone by 3R, won't be either. Kontaveit also just lost to Zhang, a good player but in theory, the wrong winner of that match.
Osaka has not been the same since the mental issues surfaced. Raducanu, well, we have discussed that ad-nauseum. Leylah ditto.
There will be a betting favorite. But it will simply be a numerical factor for bettors.

[ashkor87]

Cincy and Canadian have not usually been good indicators of how someone will do at the uSO, though..

[AcesAnnie]

I am waiting for the end of these two tournaments and I will then, still, be very iffy because building a streak of matches in the WTA is almost impossible these days. That was the reason Iga's 37 streak was so impressive; it is very odd nowadays.
Won't be surprised if Halep losses (@ USO) in 3R. If Ons is gone by 3R, won't be either. Kontaveit also just lost to Zhang, a good player but in theory, the wrong winner of that match.
Osaka has not been the same since the mental issues surfaced. Raducanu, well, we have discussed that ad-nauseum. Leylah ditto.
There will be a betting favorite. But it will simply be a numerical factor for bettors.

Raducanu just lost to Pegula tonight and is among the many women that could win the USO. I really don't know if there is a clear favorite on the women's side. I really think a number of the ladies can come out on top.

[ti-amie]

My daughter waits to see who is standing in the second week before she starts paying attention to the WTA draw.

[ashkor87]

Time to create a 'Pegula test' like the 'Halep test' - only a really good player, champion, can beat Pegula...but a champion would beat her, for sure..so she has become a benchmark...

[ponchi101]

I would not go that way. She can beat anybody, but several players can beat her too. I don' think she has the serve to remain competitive for several matches.

[Suliso]

My daughter waits to see who is standing in the second week before she starts paying attention to the WTA draw.

Sure, but that is totally unhelpful in predicting the winner now.

[Suliso]

In almost all cases the eventual winner had done something of note before in the same year. One could say that even about Raducanu with her surprising emergence at Wimbledon. That's why I said Canada and Cincinnati finalists. If you wish could also take into account Miami and IW finalists, but that was perhaps too long ago.

[ponchi101]

I was trying to find some exceptions to that, and of course you have Rybakina recently at W. But, for the USO, it holds nicely. Bianca was having a fantastic season on hard courts, Osaka was rising, you mention Raducanu's good showing at W. Rybakina before W did nothing, but fairly the exception. Iga crushed the clay court season, Barty was playing well before her Aussie.
So, so far we can say:
Halep, because she won Toronto. BHM did well. Here at Cincy, I say Maddie is playing good tennis, Sabalenka is an entire guess but can go out in 1R or all the way, Rybakina is still around, Pegula.... I keep being surprised by her. Tomljanovic does not have the track record.
By now, I say we are stuck with eliminating some players. I can't see Iga anymore as any sort of favorite, Naomi neither, I think Andreescu made a big mistake not playing here and not getting matches under her belt. Leylah looked very lost on some stretches of her loss in Cincy.
My actual problem will be the WHO YOU GOT poll. I get only 9 players to choose because I always include OTHER. And I know I will be missing a few because I can't do the ATP side: post the first 9 + OTHER. In the WTA, it does not work that way.