ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:28 am
#5 - Raducanu - if the court is fast, like last year, I would move her to second favorite behind Leylah..

comments?

Deuce wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:42 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:28 am
#5 - Raducanu - if the court is fast, like last year, I would move her to second favorite behind Leylah..

comments?

^ Wow.

Has Emma been playing and winning secret tournaments that the rest of us don't know about?
She has done absolutely nothing of any positive significance since last year's U.S. Open, which was almost one year ago.
Prior to that, the only thing she had done of any meaning was to win a few rounds at Wimbledon, before becoming too overwhelmed at her circumstance to continue.

I entirely fail to understand how anyone can pick her as any degree of favourite at any tournament - let alone at a Major. Unless that person knows something that no-one else knows about her.

I won't ask you what she has done in the past 11 months to make you believe she is a favourite to win the U.S. Open, because I've asked you that same question a few times before when you've picked her to win or to do very well at other tournaments, and I don't recall getting a practical answer other than that you see potential in her.

Sorry, but based on her results, I just continue to shake my head at your extremely high current opinion of Raducanu, which I feel has, at best, a very, very, very shaky foundation.

(And, as much as I like Leylah, I don't see her as a favourite to win it, either.)

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:13 pm A brave prediction..could happen, though I don't think Coco is there yet..still too many flaws in her game which a good player can exploit..
And, if course depends on the draw! Coco and leylah could meet in the quarters, for instance

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:47 pm

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:13 pm A brave prediction..could happen, though I don't think Coco is there yet..still too many flaws in her game which a good player can exploit..
And, if course depends on the draw! Coco and leylah could meet in the quarters, for instance

Too early to really know the draw so I really don't know how that will play out yet, but I got to hope Coco plays into it somehow. Look at Coco and the way things played out for her at the French Open before coming up against Iga.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:17 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:47 pm

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:13 pm A brave prediction..could happen, though I don't think Coco is there yet..still too many flaws in her game which a good player can exploit..
And, if course depends on the draw! Coco and leylah could meet in the quarters, for instance

Too early to really know the draw so I really don't know how that will play out yet, but I got to hope Coco plays into it somehow. Look at Coco and the way things played out for her at the French Open before coming up against Iga.

love the bold predictions. I'm curious to see how Sabalenka does. She has had good results at the US Open - even the fourth round she lost to Osaka in 2018 was super close and the match of the tournament. And of course, she should have won the title last year. We'll see if she can find her form in the hard-court events before the Open, after month layoff.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:20 pm

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:17 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 1:47 pm

Too early to really know the draw so I really don't know how that will play out yet, but I got to hope Coco plays into it somehow. Look at Coco and the way things played out for her at the French Open before coming up against Iga.

love the bold predictions. I'm curious to see how Sabalenka does. She has had good results at the US Open - even the fourth round she lost to Osaka in 2018 was super close and the match of the tournament. And of course, she should have won the title last year. We'll see if she can find her form in the hard-court events before the Open, after month layoff.

I just love the young players. Even on the guys side with Sinner and Alcaraz. Sinner being the only one that is 20. The rest that I picked between the men's and women's are all teenagers.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:22 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:20 pm

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:17 pm

love the bold predictions. I'm curious to see how Sabalenka does. She has had good results at the US Open - even the fourth round she lost to Osaka in 2018 was super close and the match of the tournament. And of course, she should have won the title last year. We'll see if she can find her form in the hard-court events before the Open, after month layoff.

I just love the young players. Even on the guys side with Sinner and Alcaraz. Sinner being the only one that is 20. The rest that I picked between the men's and women's are all teenagers.

I don't blame you! I loved Capriati, Hingis and Chang when they broke out as teenagers and I was in my teens and early 20s. It's cool to see people in your own generation doing so well. I forget that Sinner is so young still.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote:

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:22 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:20 pm I just love the young players. Even on the guys side with Sinner and Alcaraz. Sinner being the only one that is 20. The rest that I picked between the men's and women's are all teenagers.

I don't blame you! I loved Capriati, Hingis and Chang when they broke out as teenagers and I was in my teens and early 20s. It's cool to see people in your own generation doing so well. I forget that Sinner is so young still.

I don't know much about Michael Chang(except the video you shared about him) and Capriati I know of her name and the huge promise that she had that never really came to be. Martina Hingis I do know of as she became a huge champion. She was also at the Wimbledon Centre Court celebration. I was also surprised when I looked up Jennifer Capriati and saw that she won 3 grand slams.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 6:12 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote:

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 2:22 pm

I don't blame you! I loved Capriati, Hingis and Chang when they broke out as teenagers and I was in my teens and early 20s. It's cool to see people in your own generation doing so well. I forget that Sinner is so young still.

I don't know much about Michael Chang(except the video you shared about him) and Capriati I know of her name and the huge promise that she had that never really came to be. Martina Hingis I do know of as she became a huge champion. She was also at the Wimbledon Centre Court celebration. I was also surprised when I looked up Jennifer Capriati and saw that she won 3 grand slams.

Look up Tracy Austin. One of the great teenage tennis stories!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:58 pm Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:14 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:58 pm Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

Nice to have so much disagreement! I still stand by my ranking, of course, though I agree Raducanu is shaky....agree, though, that Alcaraz winning will not be a surprise..none of those 5 winning will surprise me, actually. But Alcaraz, like all young players, is getting better with every outing . ,(like Secretariat!,)

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:19 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:14 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:58 pm Uhm, Ashkor. Disagree on a lot.
1. Emma. I am sorry, but it has not been one or two bad showings. It has been bad showings, injuries galore, aa merry-go-round of coaches. You tell me right now, 1R loss or SF's or better, and I say 1R. She has not shown any consistency.
2. Rafa. Novak pulled back within 1 again, and Rafa has a good chance of ending the year as #1. They all say they don't care about that, and that is a lie. Rafa and Novak are clearly driving each other more and more. About to be a father? I think the baby is due after the Open. Plenty of time to order those diapers over Amazon. Problem #1 is: what will be this season's injury (he seems to get one per playing season)? I say he plays, and has a very good chance because I say...
3. Medvedev. He won two sets at the Aussie final and since then, not a whole lot. Reached two finals on grass where he was beaten soundly, and his hard court season was interrupted. I agree, he loves this court, but I don't know if he reaches a second final against Rafa, on an outdoor court, and if he can pull that one out. Sure, #1 favorite, but by a whisker.
4. Carlitos. Nothing but upswing. The serve is getting better, the FH is a sledgehammer, his physical conditioning is reaching "peak Nadal". If he lift that trophy, not the slightest surprise.
5. Coco. Have to join C4C here. RG finalist, loves hard courts, did well at W (yes, I know, got creamed in her last two sets, but that was not a bad run), will have everybody backing her. Has to be in the conversation.
6. Naomi. Injuries, mental health, a low ranking. She has become a player with lots of problems to deal with. She gets her game back? I don't see her losing. But that is a big if.
7. Iga. Streak is over. Let's start another one.
8. Leylah, Aryna, Rybakina, OTHER. All in the mix. I know, Iga will be the favorite. But no way I put her at over 33%. OTHER is just too strong nowadays.

Nice to have so much disagreement! I still stand by my ranking, of course, though I agree Raducanu is shaky....agree, though, that Alcaraz winning will not be a surprise..none of those 5 winning will surprise me, actually. But Alcaraz, like all young players, is getting better with every outing . ,(like Secretariat!,)

I agree with your Alcaraz pick, but wonder what you think on Jannick Sinner who is another young player who seems in that mold where every match he goes out to play he is getting better and better. Do you see him going far in the US Open?

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:59 am I think Sinner needs a very good draw to go deep. I'm not convinced about him yet.

Carlitos can if he gets a decent draw too. For both him and Sinner the top or bottom half of the draw will be crucial for their success. I don't know if anyone else saw it but after his first match at Wimby he took his sleeve off and that elbow is layered in kinesio tape. He never took it off again.

As for the women it depends on who is left standing in Week 2.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:16 pm Rafa and RG. I think Rafa could play RG with a broken arm and just go out and rub some of that clay dirt on it and be magically healed and win the tournament.

...

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:25 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 3:16 pm Rafa and RG. I think Rafa could play RG with a broken arm and just go out and rub some of that clay dirt on it and be magically healed and win the tournament.

...

His three losses have been due to injury:
2009: Sodelrling. After the match, he took a long time off to deal with his injury.
2015: Injured in the QF (?) against Novak.
2916: WO to Novak. Injured.
2021: Foot injury Vs Novak.

So yes, he needs to be injured to lose there.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:14 am History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:00 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:14 am History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

One Slam champions, at Wimby and USO:
Wimbledon:
Conchita, Novotna, Bartoli, Rybakina.
USO:
Sabatini, Stosur, Pennetta, Sloane, Andreescu, Raducanu

But we are talking about this year. And, I will still take OTHER in the USO poll.
Fun, irrelevant fact to take into consideration: last year in which there was a 2 Slam champion (in that same year): 2016.
This year, Barty cannot repeat, you are saying Swiatek is not a prohibitive favorite (and I agree), and I just can't see Rybakina pulling that double. So:
OTHER for the win

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:00 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:14 am History does suggest that one-off champions happen more often at the USO than at Wimbledon..Penetta and Sloane, for instance..though I think Sloane can win again, she is a champion-class player

One Slam champions, at Wimby and USO:
Wimbledon:
Conchita, Novotna, Bartoli, Rybakina.
USO:
Sabatini, Stosur, Pennetta, Sloane, Andreescu, Raducanu

But we are talking about this year. And, I will still take OTHER in the USO poll.
Fun, irrelevant fact to take into consideration: last year in which there was a 2 Slam champion (in that same year): 2016.
This year, Barty cannot repeat, you are saying Swiatek is not a prohibitive favorite (and I agree), and I just can't see Rybakina pulling that double. So:
OTHER for the win

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:05 am Too early to say Rybakina is a 1-slammer, almost certainly she will win a couple more..true of raducanu and andreescu also, of course

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:01 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:05 am Too early to say Rybakina is a 1-slammer, almost certainly she will win a couple more..true of raducanu and andreescu also, of course

^ Except that Raducanu and Andreescu will never win another Major.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:27 am ...

If you are saying that Iga is not the favorite in the ladies draw then who do you think is the favorite?

That being asked who would you say would be the favorite on the men's side? Would it be Medvedev?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:14 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:27 am ...

If you are saying that Iga is not the favorite in the ladies draw then who do you think is the favorite?

That being asked who would you say would be the favorite on the men's side? Would it be Medvedev?

I am not saying she is not the favorite; I am saying she is not the HANDS DOWN favorite. It will not be as clear as that RG run. I said above: she WILL be the favorite, but I say at only about 33%. All other players, and it will be a lot, will get reasonable odds.
Men's: Medvedev and Rafa at equal odds. Medvedev because he really likes the surface, Rafa because he wakes up to play a tennis match and a little part of his brain says "I'm Rafa".

When Emma won her USO we looked it up: NO player that has won a slam as a teenager (in the women's) has ended her career as a one slam wonder. And in the men's, only Chang has retired with no more slams.
Rybakina, at 23, is a bit of a late bloomer. But, so were Barty and Davenport. In the poll in another topic the majority felt she was in the 2-4 range. I say she is good for one more. But, with this parity, if she never even as much as sniffs another Slam final, one Wimbledon is one hell of a career.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:32 pm I say that as fans, sometimes we are too harsh. And these last three decades have been terrible for that, because we had Roger, Rafa, Novak, Pete, Serena, Steffi, Seles and Venus. All of the sudden, if you did not win 15 slams, you were not great.
I never liked Arantxa, because of her style of play. But that woman over-achieved to the max. With that game, almost any other player would have been stuck at challenger level. She won four slams.
But this last crop of players made it hard to keep perspective and appreciate, for example, Flavia Penetta. Sure, only one slam. But she won it.
Heck, I can't even win at Yahtzee. That should put me in my place.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:21 pm Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

jazzyg wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:53 pm ...

I was very vocal about Andreescu winning the U.S. Open before it started the year she won, and I was not alone. I know Brad Gilbert picked her, too, and the way she had barely lost matches when she competed all year, she was a popular selection.

Clearly no one could have foreseen Raducanu winning.

Rybakina, who always had the game to win a slam, had shown a proclivity for losing close matches ever since the pandemic started, so there was no reason to think she would turn it around at Wimbledon.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:21 pm Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:36 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:21 pm Way too early to predict if Emma, Rybakina or Bianca will ever win another tournament. For one they are all very young and still even at where they are all in their games still improving and then you never know how anything will pan out in any Slam. Nobody thought Elena, Emma or Bianca were even going to win any Grand Slam tournaments and that happened. So why not again?

Because, with Emma and Bianca, other players have figured out their games. When they won the U.S. Open, they were new to the tour, and other players didn't know how to play them. Now they know - and, as a result, Emma and Bianca are not doing nearly as well as they did in the years they won the U.S. Open.

There are also other factors... The both the psychological physical fitness is questionable with both Emma and Bianca.
Andreescu's injury problems have a very long history, going back to Juniors. As well, she says that she 'almost quit tennis completely' during the time in the past year that she didn't play. Her good stretch was a period of only 6 months, 3 years ago. She has not done anything significant since then. A good 6 months does not make a great career - just as a bad 6 months does not make a terrible career. It depends what you do with the rest of your time on tour.
And, on a personal note, I find her arrogant - her attitude has too often been one of a person who thinks she is the greatest thing since sliced bread. That will come back to bite you in the behind in 95% of players of any sport.

As far as Emma is concerned, she has also shown that she is more fragile than average both physically and psychologically. Her having to pull out of Wimbledon 2021 because she was simply emotionally overwhelmed... and her 'little injuries' have had her retire from matches or withdraw in between matches far too often recently.

And so, all of that combined has led me to believe that neither one will ever win another Major - and maybe never win another significant tournament.

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:54 pm As I said - the other players were unfamiliar with the games of Bianca, Emma, and Leylah - and that was a major factor in the 3 of them doing well.
Since then, the other players have studied their games, and have figured out how to best play them. This happens all the time, and is what separates the 'flavours of the month' from the players who will have a very good or great career.

Of course, the confidence that Bianca, Emma, and Leylah gained is also a significant factor. But it certainly appears that the confidence that Bianca and Emma gained by doing well has disappeared now, and only Leylah is still benefiting from that boost of confidence.

And, no, I wasn't talking about Leylah doing well at the U.S. Open last year - until she was doing well. She had been struggling during the year before then, so there was certainly no indication that she'd get to the Final of the U.S. Open.
(But after about the 2nd round, I did jokingly predict a Leylah - Emma Final )

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:02 pm

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:54 pm As I said - the other players were unfamiliar with the games of Bianca, Emma, and Leylah - and that was a major factor in the 3 of them doing well.
Since then, the other players have studied their games, and have figured out how to best play them. This happens all the time, and is what separates the 'flavours of the month' from the players who will have a very good or great career.

Of course, the confidence that Bianca, Emma, and Leylah gained is also a significant factor. But it certainly appears that the confidence that Bianca and Emma gained by doing well has disappeared now, and only Leylah is still benefiting from that boost of confidence.

And, no, I wasn't talking about Leylah doing well at the U.S. Open last year - until she was doing well. She had been struggling during the year before then, so there was certainly no indication that she'd get to the Final of the U.S. Open.
(But after about the 2nd round, I did jokingly predict a Leylah - Emma Final )

I don't get the whole unfamiliar thing though because every event and especially the Grand Slam events there are a lot of players in the draw that the top players are very unfamiliar with and the majority of those players get destroyed in the 1st round by the top players. So there has to be something more to what Bianca, Leylah, and Emma had then just being unfamiliar.

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:28 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:02 pm

Deuce wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:54 pm As I said - the other players were unfamiliar with the games of Bianca, Emma, and Leylah - and that was a major factor in the 3 of them doing well.
Since then, the other players have studied their games, and have figured out how to best play them. This happens all the time, and is what separates the 'flavours of the month' from the players who will have a very good or great career.

Of course, the confidence that Bianca, Emma, and Leylah gained is also a significant factor. But it certainly appears that the confidence that Bianca and Emma gained by doing well has disappeared now, and only Leylah is still benefiting from that boost of confidence.

And, no, I wasn't talking about Leylah doing well at the U.S. Open last year - until she was doing well. She had been struggling during the year before then, so there was certainly no indication that she'd get to the Final of the U.S. Open.
(But after about the 2nd round, I did jokingly predict a Leylah - Emma Final )

I don't get the whole unfamiliar thing though because every event and especially the Grand Slam events there are a lot of players in the draw that the top players are very unfamiliar with and the majority of those players get destroyed in the 1st round by the top players. So there has to be something more to what Bianca, Leylah, and Emma had then just being unfamiliar.

Obviously there are degrees of ability. And obviously, just because someone is new to them does not mean that the new person will win.

There are established players, and there are upcoming players. In both groups, there are varying degrees of ability. Leylah, Bianca, and Emma have a certain degree of ability which allowed them to do well over a relatively short period of time (Leylah has thus far extended that time more than the other two, but her results have also obviously dropped from the time of the last U.S. Open).
But what Bianca and Emma have not been able to do thus far is to adapt to the other players adapting to them. And I don't really see any signs of them doing that to a degree that will get them to the relative position of beating the other players as often as they did at their short-lived 'peak'.
Leylah has adapted to other players adjusting to play her better than the other two have - and so she hasn't fallen as far from her 'peak' as the other two have.
It's pretty straightforward to me.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:31 pm
I can agree there are players that have more potential coming out of the gate than others, but I also have to say that there are players that come out of nowhere and make a long career of it. Look at a player like Sam Stosur for example. Not someone you would think would have longevity on the tour and she did win a Grand Slam and was ranked pretty high at points in her career. She had a great career. When she came on the scene was she this hotshot play. I highly doubt it. Before the USO who really knew of Emma Raducanu. Not very many people. Maybe you knew of Leylah and Bianca because you are from Canada before they did what they did, but most did not.

I guess what I am saying is these young players not only have a ton of time on their side and also even if they don't have the right people at the moment in their teams they have a lot of time to work that all out. I just don't see a player who reached the top not wanting to get back to that. I am no where near at the level of competition that they play and I know when I start having a slump I work 200% harder and I and my coach try and figure out how to change things up to get back to my winning ways. These players are professionals and I don't see how they would not do that same thing.

Deuce wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 6:04 am

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:31 pm
I can agree there are players that have more potential coming out of the gate than others, but I also have to say that there are players that come out of nowhere and make a long career of it. Look at a player like Sam Stosur for example. Not someone you would think would have longevity on the tour and she did win a Grand Slam and was ranked pretty high at points in her career. She had a great career. When she came on the scene was she this hotshot play. I highly doubt it. Before the USO who really knew of Emma Raducanu. Not very many people. Maybe you knew of Leylah and Bianca because you are from Canada before they did what they did, but most did not.

I guess what I am saying is these young players not only have a ton of time on their side and also even if they don't have the right people at the moment in their teams they have a lot of time to work that all out. I just don't see a player who reached the top not wanting to get back to that. I am no where near at the level of competition that they play and I know when I start having a slump I work 200% harder and I and my coach try and figure out how to change things up to get back to my winning ways. These players are professionals and I don't see how they would not do that same thing.

I, of course, never said - or even implied - that they aren't working toward getting better, so I really don't know where that part of your comment comes from. (But, that said, there are certainly some players who don't work hard to improve.)

What I said, once again, is that I don't see that Emma or Bianca have adapted to the adjustments other players have made to the way they play them. Other players have figured them out, and so Emma and Bianca are disadvantaged as a result.

It's like computer hackers and programmers... The programmers do something to protect against being hacked... then the hackers figure out how to get around those protections... so the programmers have to find new, better ways to protect against hackers... and when the hackers figure out how to get around that, the programmers have to come up with something better and new.
With tennis players, now other players have figured Emma and Bianca out. So it's up to Emma and Bianca to figure out how they can gain the upper hand again. And on and on it goes, until given players reach their plateau.
I'm saying that I think Emma and Bianca have reached the point where they won't gain the upper hand again. Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong. But that is what I see based on my 40 years of watching and playing the game.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:54 pm ...

Maybe you have a lot more experience watching the game of tennis than I do and that will never change, but don't you think not adapting and adjusting to opponents games translates a bit to the lack of putting in the work? What I am saying is every player when they see that other players come along and adapt their games that can control the match much better when they play them they do everything they can to adjust. If they are not doing that then they are not putting in the effort they should be.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:26 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:54 pm ...

Maybe you have a lot more experience watching the game of tennis than I do and that will never change, but don't you think not adapting and adjusting to opponents games translates a bit to the lack of putting in the work? What I am saying is every player when they see that other players come along and adapt their games that can control the match much better when they play them they do everything they can to adjust. If they are not doing that then they are not putting in the effort they should be.

Maybe. But maybe, it just means that your game is no longer suitable to improve.
Stefan Edberg said it. His wonderful Serve & Volley game was no longer suitable for the tour. His continental FH was too weak for the new atomic strokes. He just could not move forward. Jim Courier, with a different stroke, also lost power on his FH and was never able to recover it. JC Ferrero, one of the hardest working men on tour, won RG and reached the USO final in 2003, and then, dropped and dropped and dropped in rankings for the next few years. He could not keep up with the other guys (and he was in the Federer generation, so he had to suffer that).
I am not saying Bianca and Emma are done; they are too young. But their return to greatness is not guaranteed, regardless of how much hard work they put in. They just have, indeed, caught lightning in a bottle. Once.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:22 pm ...

Both you and Deuce have a lot more experience on this than I do. I definitely am not saying that either of you are wrong that these players lost something in their game. Heck even Serena has lost something in her game over time. I just don't see Emma or Bianca for one both being so young to fall off terribly. They have both been at the top or close to the top and I am pretty sure they want some more of that. I can't guarantee that will happen and I don't think anyone can, but I also cannot guarantee that they will not and either can anyone else.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:22 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:26 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:54 pm ...

Maybe you have a lot more experience watching the game of tennis than I do and that will never change, but don't you think not adapting and adjusting to opponents games translates a bit to the lack of putting in the work? What I am saying is every player when they see that other players come along and adapt their games that can control the match much better when they play them they do everything they can to adjust. If they are not doing that then they are not putting in the effort they should be.

Maybe. But maybe, it just means that your game is no longer suitable to improve.
Stefan Edberg said it. His wonderful Serve & Volley game was no longer suitable for the tour. His continental FH was too weak for the new atomic strokes. He just could not move forward. Jim Courier, with a different stroke, also lost power on his FH and was never able to recover it. JC Ferrero, one of the hardest working men on tour, won RG and reached the USO final in 2003, and then, dropped and dropped and dropped in rankings for the next few years. He could not keep up with the other guys (and he was in the Federer generation, so he had to suffer that).
I am not saying Bianca and Emma are done; they are too young. But their return to greatness is not guaranteed, regardless of how much hard work they put in. They just have, indeed, caught lightning in a bottle. Once.

Both you and Deuce have a lot more experience on this than I do. I definitely am not saying that either of you are wrong that these players lost something in their game. Heck even Serena has lost something in her game over time. I just don't see Emma or Bianca for one both being so young to fall off terribly. They have both been at the top or close to the top and I am pretty sure they want some more of that. I can't guarantee that will happen and I don't think anyone can, but I also cannot guarantee that they will not and either can anyone else.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:59 pm The women's game is very deep and there are definitely no guarantees to pretty much every tournament they go into(even the slams). Before when Serena was there and winning all the time and even when Ash Barty started to take over you could sometimes predict the way things would go, but most of the time in the women's game it is up for grabs and now it definitely is. Even with a player like Iga you never know what will happen.

In just over a month we could be talking about another unknown ladies player who is rolling through the USO out of nowhere. Who knows?

I am not going to say that Emma , Elena, Bianca, Leylah or any of those young players will ever be a Serena or even Ash Barty because it probably won't happen, but you never know.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 5:28 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 18, 2022 4:59 pm The women's game is very deep and there are definitely no guarantees to pretty much every tournament they go into(even the slams). Before when Serena was there and winning all the time and even when Ash Barty started to take over you could sometimes predict the way things would go, but most of the time in the women's game it is up for grabs and now it definitely is. Even with a player like Iga you never know what will happen.

In just over a month we could be talking about another unknown ladies player who is rolling through the USO out of nowhere. Who knows?

I am not going to say that Emma , Elena, Bianca, Leylah or any of those young players will ever be a Serena or even Ash Barty because it probably won't happen, but you never know.

I can see Leylah and Elena surpassing Barty's accomplishments on paper - 3 Slams, a run at #1... If Barty hadn't retired, I think she would have set the bar out of reach for them. I think Emma can have a solid Top 20 career and challenge for more Slams. Bianca is iffier based on durability and motivation, but certainly the tennis is there.

Suliso wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:32 am Three Slams is a lot higher bar than most of you seem to think. You'll probably agree that Halep, Azarenka and Kvitova are great players. They couldn't do it...

Suliso wrote: ↑Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:32 am Three Slams is a lot higher bar than most of you seem to think. You'll probably agree that Halep, Azarenka and Kvitova are great players. They couldn't do it...

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:05 pm I have been talking about this for about three years now. The parity we see in the WTA is what we will see in the ATP when Rafa and Novak retire. This will become golf: a bunch of one time winners, a few 2-3 champs, a scarcity of multiple slam winners.
I think it is the reason Rafa and Novak are still putting so much effort in their careers. They know that whomever ends up with the slam record, will be so forever. Even though I also say forever is a mighty long time.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:00 pm When you get to your 30's or, even more extreme, your 40's, this forum will be long gone and will be named "Mumble about tennis", because the rest of us will be so old.
And we won't even remember how to look up for the forum in our antediluvian laptops
Alcaraz: Maybe, a huge maybe 6 slams. The field is too even.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 10:46 pm

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:16 pm US citizens already have exemptions

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:16 pm US citizens already have exemptions

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:30 pm

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:16 pm US citizens already have exemptions

And as a non US citizen, when I went to the USA in January I had to upload my vaccination cards on the United Airlines site or they would not let me board the plane. No exception.
And, although I am a resident of Colombia, but not a Citizen, I would have not been allowed to enter the country again without proof of vaccination. If you are a citizen, you can enter if you are not vaccinated, AND then you have to go through a two weeks quarantine. Which is very strictly enforced (if you are caught breaching the quarantine you can spend some time quarantined in prison).

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:42 pm I am flying to Venezuela on Saturday. MY Home country; not a resident, still a citizen.
I have to:
Bring in proof of vaccination.
Submit to a $60 C19 test (at the airport, upon arrival).
Give my address and e-mail for them to deliver the test result.
If I fail the test, I have to quarantine.
I can shove my rights up my... Ok, I don't have any rights there, since we are a dictatorship. But there are NO exceptions.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 10:32 pm Because it is the Vennie Government, and they charge you that. And we are all very clear that SOME BIG SHOT in the Government is running the scam.
And if you don't like it, don't come.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 4:25 pm Our problem with your line of reasoning is that the USO is not discriminating against anybody. The Govt of the USA is not discriminating against anybody. The government sets a series of policies for people to enter and, if you do not fulfill them, you don't come in.
Daniel Galan and Cami Osorio (Colombian 31's) need to apply for a visa to get into the USA. Hugo Dellien from Bolivia, too. Every single Argentinian needs a visa. If you don't get it, you don't come in.
If you cannot show proof of money to come into the USA, you can be detained by ANY officer from CBP and be returned back home. When I fly through Europe, I need to show AT LEAST one credit card or financial instrument that will show that I have the money to sustain myself while there.
And every single foreign person the USA needs to be vaccinated. The rule is simple.
I really do not understand your line of reasoning. If Americans want to enter their country without being vaccinated, that is between Americans (and we know the problems that has generated). But that is precisely what a country is: a club, and the members get special treatment over the non-members.
So, if it raises a question, the answer is right there.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 24, 2022 4:25 pm Our problem with your line of reasoning is that the USO is not discriminating against anybody. The Govt of the USA is not discriminating against anybody. The government sets a series of policies for people to enter and, if you do not fulfill them, you don't come in.
Daniel Galan and Cami Osorio (Colombian 31's) need to apply for a visa to get into the USA. Hugo Dellien from Bolivia, too. Every single Argentinian needs a visa. If you don't get it, you don't come in.
If you cannot show proof of money to come into the USA, you can be detained by ANY officer from CBP and be returned back home. When I fly through Europe, I need to show AT LEAST one credit card or financial instrument that will show that I have the money to sustain myself while there.
And every single foreign person the USA needs to be vaccinated. The rule is simple.
I really do not understand your line of reasoning. If Americans want to enter their country without being vaccinated, that is between Americans (and we know the problems that has generated). But that is precisely what a country is: a club, and the members get special treatment over the non-members.
So, if it raises a question, the answer is right there.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 1:29 am Time to close this chapter though, maybe shift it to the board on government policies or something! I generally stay away from that sort of thing, so...partly because I am not particularly proud of my own government's policies- is anybody?

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:09 pm On the tennis side of things at the US Open, I look for more of an open men's draw kind of like the women's draw this year with Novak out, Rafa and his Abs injury, Zverev out. That leaves the chances for one of these younger players to step up and jump into the spotlight and possibly knock off a Medvedev. Someone like A Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner or even an American in Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Brandon Nakashima or someone like that. Regardless who it might be, I think it is a lot more wide open and I think we are going to come out of this USO with a 1st time champion.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:56 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:09 pm On the tennis side of things at the US Open, I look for more of an open men's draw kind of like the women's draw this year with Novak out, Rafa and his Abs injury, Zverev out. That leaves the chances for one of these younger players to step up and jump into the spotlight and possibly knock off a Medvedev. Someone like A Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner or even an American in Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Brandon Nakashima or someone like that. Regardless who it might be, I think it is a lot more wide open and I think we are going to come out of this USO with a 1st time champion.

Bo-tic, Bo-tic, Bo-tic!

If Medvedev and Rafa aren't at their best, it's definitely going to be open season. I think Medvedev will establish himself as the favorite before the Open. Berrettini could be a factor. Kyrgios could be in the mix again. Would be nice to see Korda back. How about Andy Murray pulling out a performance for the ages?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:13 pm Even with Rafa's abs totally healed, I would still give Fritz a reasonable chance. Sure, he lost that QF Vs Rafa at Wimby, and it must have hurt, but that was his best Slam result. He has been improving little by little, which is all you can ask for.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:50 pm Oh, not making week 2 will be underperforming.
I know I just posted, in a separate topic, that we have to gauge Alcaraz' potential. We have to do the same with Fritz. But, by now, we also can claim some minimum's. Any 1R/2R loss by Alcaraz on clay will look bad; he is too good for that. And for Fritz, the same but on hard courts.
It is delicate: we cannot expect them to win a slam THIS year (apart from there being only one left), but we also should not expect 1R losses.
(Unless they run into a Kyrgios on an exceptional day, or an Isner hitting 50 aces in a three setter, or other oddities like that).

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:17 pm He is ranked 281. I am not sure if what you meant by "stun some players" is that there are players he could beat, because stunning some players sounds, to me, like making 3R or 4R. And Shelton has no credentials for that.
He would even have to qualify first, which is not a given (unless a WC is in order).
Not sure, Cuckoo...

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:08 pm I am going to throw out this young American to watch in the USO and that is 19 year old Ben Shelton. I am not going to say he is going to win the tournament, but he could stun some players on the way to a good appearance at the Open. He is also currently playing at the Atlanta Open.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 3:43 am Shelton will get a wild card because he as American NCAA singles champion from this year. They did away with automatic wild cards to NCAA singles champs more than a decade ago, but they still give them to players from the U.S. when they win the the NCAA singles title.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:53 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:08 pm I am going to throw out this young American to watch in the USO and that is 19 year old Ben Shelton. I am not going to say he is going to win the tournament, but he could stun some players on the way to a good appearance at the Open. He is also currently playing at the Atlanta Open.

Good eye on Ben Shelton. I saw him play at the Indy Challenger last week. He made the semis. I was surprised he lost that match, actually. The kid has some big firepower. And he was very nice. It looks like he can get stronger physically. I don't think he will win a round at the Open, but you never know. I'll watch him. It will be interesting to see if he stays in school or goes pro. I think he should stay and get stronger.

Funny, I thought Shelton's serves were bombs, but the two opponents I saw returned them pretty easily, nice and deep. Particularly Kovacevic, who beat Shelton in the semi. Kovacevic has a sweet one-handed backhand.

Shelton technically beat Van Rijthoven, but it was a retirement. Van Rijthoven won the first set 7-6 and retired with a sore back soon after, but actually Shelton should have won that first set. One of his own team members messed him up. Late in the set, VR missed a serve and Shelton's uncle (I think) clapped, and VR turned to him and called him out, saying it was disrespectful. Kids sitting next to the uncle were hooting about it. It was sort of a spectacle. I didn't see it, but I heard Shelton was visibly upset by his uncle's actions and the whole thing. Then he dropped his serve next. I don't know if this was during the set or TB. Anyway... I was impressed with the kid, but maybe he's a dime a dozen. I think he plays for his dad in Florida.

Wu Yibing won the Challenger, and that makes three in a row this summer on hard court. The final vs Kovacevic was so close. Kovacevic won the first in a TB and Wu took the second 15-13 in the TB.

Not to derail this topic, but the coolest thing I saw during the tournament was after the doubles final, two opponents stayed on court analyzing the match, very complimentary of each other. The losing opponent, Raja Purav, who is 36, looks like he's a member at the club, not a pro player. First time he took the court, I was like, "Did they have a tournament to give a doubles wild card to some local players?" He looks way older than 36, mostly because he's bald. But he's good.

Also, the courts weren't as big as we're used to seeing on TV, in terms of room behind the baseline. The line judges were always lunging out of the way or covering their heads to avoid getting hit. The proximity hindered players at some points. I saw someone lose a point because the ball was deep and he would have hit the line judge if he had swung at hit. Also, there were only 3 line judges on the whole court. One calling the service line, and one for each sideline. The sideline judges stood on opposite ends of the court and had to call the whole line, even on the other side, plus the center line on the serve. The chair called the baselines. No review.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 3:43 am Shelton will get a wild card because he as American NCAA singles champion from this year. They did away with automatic wild cards to NCAA singles champs more than a decade ago, but they still give them to players from the U.S. when they win the the NCAA singles title.

Main draw or qualies? I'd prefer a qualies wild card. I just wonder if the R1 prize money lures them into leaving school so they don't have to leave it on the table. I assume if they say in school, they can't accept the $40,000 R1 prize money. I think they can take enough to cover expenses, so maybe there are some loopholes. I also wonder if that's changing now that NCAA athletes can accept endorsements.

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 1:35 pm

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:53 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:08 pm I am going to throw out this young American to watch in the USO and that is 19 year old Ben Shelton. I am not going to say he is going to win the tournament, but he could stun some players on the way to a good appearance at the Open. He is also currently playing at the Atlanta Open.

Good eye on Ben Shelton. I saw him play at the Indy Challenger last week. He made the semis. I was surprised he lost that match, actually. The kid has some big firepower. And he was very nice. It looks like he can get stronger physically. I don't think he will win a round at the Open, but you never know. I'll watch him. It will be interesting to see if he stays in school or goes pro. I think he should stay and get stronger.

Funny, I thought Shelton's serves were bombs, but the two opponents I saw returned them pretty easily, nice and deep. Particularly Kovacevic, who beat Shelton in the semi. Kovacevic has a sweet one-handed backhand.

Shelton technically beat Van Rijthoven, but it was a retirement. Van Rijthoven won the first set 7-6 and retired with a sore back soon after, but actually Shelton should have won that first set. One of his own team members messed him up. Late in the set, VR missed a serve and Shelton's uncle (I think) clapped, and VR turned to him and called him out, saying it was disrespectful. Kids sitting next to the uncle were hooting about it. It was sort of a spectacle. I didn't see it, but I heard Shelton was visibly upset by his uncle's actions and the whole thing. Then he dropped his serve next. I don't know if this was during the set or TB. Anyway... I was impressed with the kid, but maybe he's a dime a dozen. I think he plays for his dad in Florida.

Wu Yibing won the Challenger, and that makes three in a row this summer on hard court. The final vs Kovacevic was so close. Kovacevic won the first in a TB and Wu took the second 15-13 in the TB.

Not to derail this topic, but the coolest thing I saw during the tournament was after the doubles final, two opponents stayed on court analyzing the match, very complimentary of each other. The losing opponent, Raja Purav, who is 36, looks like he's a member at the club, not a pro player. First time he took the court, I was like, "Did they have a tournament to give a doubles wild card to some local players?" He looks way older than 36, mostly because he's bald. But he's good.

Also, the courts weren't as big as we're used to seeing on TV, in terms of room behind the baseline. The line judges were always lunging out of the way or covering their heads to avoid getting hit. The proximity hindered players at some points. I saw someone lose a point because the ball was deep and he would have hit the line judge if he had swung at hit. Also, there were only 3 line judges on the whole court. One calling the service line, and one for each sideline. The sideline judges stood on opposite ends of the court and had to call the whole line, even on the other side, plus the center line on the serve. The chair called the baselines. No review.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 3:43 am Shelton will get a wild card because he as American NCAA singles champion from this year. They did away with automatic wild cards to NCAA singles champs more than a decade ago, but they still give them to players from the U.S. when they win the the NCAA singles title.

Main draw or qualies? I'd prefer a qualies wild card. I just wonder if the R1 prize money lures them into leaving school so they don't have to leave it on the table. I assume if they say in school, they can't accept the $40,000 R1 prize money. I think they can take enough to cover expenses, so maybe there are some loopholes. I also wonder if that's changing now that NCAA athletes can accept endorsements.

I love your analysis on Shelton. Very in depth and spot on. I have heard a lot about him on the The Mini Break Podcast I listen to. Alex Gruskin who does the podcast was raving about him so I had to check him out. Another player the podcast has also raved about is South Korean Kwon Soon-woo who defeated Marcos Giron in the 1st Round of the Atlanta Open yesterday. From what I saw of him he does have solid ground strokes, but can get into a funk and make a slew of errors in bunches.

I am also for Shelton going back to school, but I guess that will be determined by his success on the tour. I do however think he can upset one or two players if he is on his game at the USO. He is definitely someone to watch for the future.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 1:46 pm

Cuckoo4Coco wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 1:35 pm

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:53 pm

Good eye on Ben Shelton. I saw him play at the Indy Challenger last week. He made the semis. I was surprised he lost that match, actually. The kid has some big firepower. And he was very nice. It looks like he can get stronger physically. I don't think he will win a round at the Open, but you never know. I'll watch him. It will be interesting to see if he stays in school or goes pro. I think he should stay and get stronger.

Funny, I thought Shelton's serves were bombs, but the two opponents I saw returned them pretty easily, nice and deep. Particularly Kovacevic, who beat Shelton in the semi. Kovacevic has a sweet one-handed backhand.

Shelton technically beat Van Rijthoven, but it was a retirement. Van Rijthoven won the first set 7-6 and retired with a sore back soon after, but actually Shelton should have won that first set. One of his own team members messed him up. Late in the set, VR missed a serve and Shelton's uncle (I think) clapped, and VR turned to him and called him out, saying it was disrespectful. Kids sitting next to the uncle were hooting about it. It was sort of a spectacle. I didn't see it, but I heard Shelton was visibly upset by his uncle's actions and the whole thing. Then he dropped his serve next. I don't know if this was during the set or TB. Anyway... I was impressed with the kid, but maybe he's a dime a dozen. I think he plays for his dad in Florida.

Wu Yibing won the Challenger, and that makes three in a row this summer on hard court. The final vs Kovacevic was so close. Kovacevic won the first in a TB and Wu took the second 15-13 in the TB.

Not to derail this topic, but the coolest thing I saw during the tournament was after the doubles final, two opponents stayed on court analyzing the match, very complimentary of each other. The losing opponent, Raja Purav, who is 36, looks like he's a member at the club, not a pro player. First time he took the court, I was like, "Did they have a tournament to give a doubles wild card to some local players?" He looks way older than 36, mostly because he's bald. But he's good.

Also, the courts weren't as big as we're used to seeing on TV, in terms of room behind the baseline. The line judges were always lunging out of the way or covering their heads to avoid getting hit. The proximity hindered players at some points. I saw someone lose a point because the ball was deep and he would have hit the line judge if he had swung at hit. Also, there were only 3 line judges on the whole court. One calling the service line, and one for each sideline. The sideline judges stood on opposite ends of the court and had to call the whole line, even on the other side, plus the center line on the serve. The chair called the baselines. No review.



Main draw or qualies? I'd prefer a qualies wild card. I just wonder if the R1 prize money lures them into leaving school so they don't have to leave it on the table. I assume if they say in school, they can't accept the $40,000 R1 prize money. I think they can take enough to cover expenses, so maybe there are some loopholes. I also wonder if that's changing now that NCAA athletes can accept endorsements.

I love your analysis on Shelton. Very in depth and spot on. I have heard a lot about him on the The Mini Break Podcast I listen to. Alex Gruskin who does the podcast was raving about him so I had to check him out. Another player the podcast has also raved about is South Korean Kwon Soon-woo who defeated Marcos Giron in the 1st Round of the Atlanta Open yesterday. From what I saw of him he does have solid ground strokes, but can get into a funk and make a slew of errors in bunches.

I am also for Shelton going back to school, but I guess that will be determined by his success on the tour. I do however think he can upset one or two players if he is on his game at the USO. He is definitely someone to watch for the future.

Kwon took a set off Djokovic at Wimbledon, R1. Alex Gruskin lives in Indianapolis, where I am. He's a good guy and he's making moves - he's commentating on Tennis Channel in Atlanta this week, I think. I think he said T2, whatever that is. Maybe TC Plus?

I worry about Shelton in B5. It will be very impressive if he wins a match at the Open against a Top 100 player. He played US Open qualies last year and lost in R2 to.... Botic! Fairly close match. If Shelton had won, I wouldn't even know who Botic is.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:48 pm Great minds and all that. I just said in the tournament thread I think Shelton should be given a WC into Qualies. If he does well there he could make the first round. After that it's iffy for him. He needs to build up strength and muscle but looking at his arms I think they've started to do that. He can think on court and his net play is pretty good. He's listed at 6'3"

ti-amie wrote:

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:49 am

ti-amie wrote:

Is this Swiatek? I like the colors. One comment or said, “we all know she is going to show up in the 10x bigger version than this.” She does tend to go baggy.

So ready for US Open looks!!

Canucklehead wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:02 am I could come up with and post a list of players whom I believe will be contenders or win the US Open, but honestly all that will prove is how much I actually do not know about who is going to be the contenders or who is going to the Slam.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:11 am

Canucklehead wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:02 am I could come up with and post a list of players whom I believe will be contenders or win the US Open, but honestly all that will prove is how much I actually do not know about who is going to be the contenders or who is going to the Slam.

You just basically described a rite of passage for this site. The "Test of the Fumbler"

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:18 am Oh, we did that last year, on the women's side. Remember what happened?

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:30 am on the women's , yes, more but 6-8 at most:
Swiatek, Osaka , Rybakina (ok, I can understand that one), Andreescu if the courts are slow,
Leylah and Raducanu if they are fast. Add BHM to the mix (that's a stretch... but... ok) ..nobody outside these is going to win!

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:49 am Whomever wins Montreal will be a contender. And the finalist too.
Same for Cincy (in the men's).
And, yes, our disagreement is expected by now Because: I see no way, whatsoever, that Osaka is a contender this year, nor Rybakina, and your faith in Raducanu is exemplary. If she draws any player ranked 33-40, she loses in the first round.
And I still will pick OTHER.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:52 pm Serious here.
So, you are saying that if, for example, Tommy Paul takes Montreal by beating Kyrgios in the final (I don't know which side of the draw they are in right this moment) that would still mean NOTHING about his chances at the USO? A recent win on a similar surface would be meaningless.
But, at the same time, Raducanu should be considered a favorite because of last year's win, despite the fact she has done nothing since.
You are a tough customer, Ashkor. Anybody winning Canada or Cincy should have a few chips in his/her game to win the USO.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:31 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:52 pm Serious here.
So, you are saying that if, for example, Tommy Paul takes Montreal by beating Kyrgios in the final (I don't know which side of the draw they are in right this moment) that would still mean NOTHING about his chances at the USO? A recent win on a similar surface would be meaningless.
But, at the same time, Raducanu should be considered a favorite because of last year's win, despite the fact she has done nothing since.
You are a tough customer, Ashkor. Anybody winning Canada or Cincy should have a few chips in his/her game to win the USO.

Of course they do. Most semifinalists and finalists, too.

AshBartyfan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 12:05 pm I think Badosa could win this year.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 1:46 pm ...

Edit: Not PCB. I mean, could he, really?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:57 pm Pliskova is one of those players that, right now, can go deep, can go out in the first round. Was a finalist, so she can play there. But I wonder if age has not caught on early with her.
This week says it all for Rafa. If he makes semis at Cincy, he will be my favorite for the USO. Short of that, and he will be packed with Medvedev, who HAS to make some noise this week.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 14, 2022 8:06 pm Agree on that point. He will use Cincy as a test. I don't see him going 100% at Cincy, especially after that abs injury. But, if he uses it as a warm-up and a testing ground, and makes the semis, in Bo5 matches and with a day off, he will be a favorite.
Only thing at Cincy: he can leave as #1. And I have never believed any player that says s/he does not care about that number. He might be tempted to go all out if Daniil drops out early.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 2:35 pm More data points.
Barrettini must be counted as a possible winner at the USO; he is too good. But after his performances at Montreal and CIncy, I gather that he is stuck in Tier 3.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:36 pm More data points.
Osaka out in 1R at Cincy. Together with the back issues at Toronto, she seems far from the form that could lead to a good USO. Of course, she now gets almost too weeks off, in which to train, and at the USO she can perhaps round herself into form with a couple of easy rounds (although not being seeded, she can draw a seed herself) but at the moment, it looks hard to put any money on her.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:01 pm Bencic, out too. Reasonable showing at TRT, not so good here. Tier 2?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:36 pm More data points.
Osaka out in 1R at Cincy. Together with the back issues at Toronto, she seems far from the form that could lead to a good USO. Of course, she now gets almost too weeks off, in which to train, and at the USO she can perhaps round herself into form with a couple of easy rounds (although not being seeded, she can draw a seed herself) but at the moment, it looks hard to put any money on her.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:14 pm @ Aces. Bencic tired? Her last match was last Friday. I mean, if by now professional athletes need a week to recover from a regular three setter on Friday (62, 36, 36 to BHM in 2:11 hours), we are talking problems with conditioning.
And her previous tournament was Lausanne, in mid July. That does not seem to be an extreme load.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:14 pm @ Aces. Bencic tired? Her last match was last Friday. I mean, if by now professional athletes need a week to recover from a regular three setter on Friday (62, 36, 36 to BHM in 2:11 hours), we are talking problems with conditioning.
And her previous tournament was Lausanne, in mid July. That does not seem to be an extreme load.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:36 pm More data points.
Osaka out in 1R at Cincy. Together with the back issues at Toronto, she seems far from the form that could lead to a good USO. Of course, she now gets almost too weeks off, in which to train, and at the USO she can perhaps round herself into form with a couple of easy rounds (although not being seeded, she can draw a seed herself) but at the moment, it looks hard to put any money on her.

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:24 pm Who here thinks a guy like Dan Evans has the make up to go deep at the USO? He did remarkably well in Montreal, and seemingly can play well on the hard courts. I don't know if he has enough to win the title, but he could upset a few of the top players along the way.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:33 pm He can beat a top 20 player. I can't see Evans doing much else.

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:47 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:33 pm He can beat a top 20 player. I can't see Evans doing much else.

He just beat Rublev who is a top 10 player.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:45 pm

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:47 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 7:33 pm He can beat a top 20 player. I can't see Evans doing much else.

He just beat Rublev who is a top 10 player.

Forgot about that. That would be his ceiling.
Rublev is another player that is going nowhere lately.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:53 pm Oh, not TWO players. He can knock one, for sure. He can take out Shapo, Rublev, RBA, BVDZ, players around there. Those are his peers, and he can play them.
Two such players would be a bit too much.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:53 pm Oh, not TWO players. He can knock one, for sure. He can take out Shapo, Rublev, RBA, BVDZ, players around there. Those are his peers, and he can play them.
Two such players would be a bit too much.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:18 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:53 pm Oh, not TWO players. He can knock one, for sure. He can take out Shapo, Rublev, RBA, BVDZ, players around there. Those are his peers, and he can play them.
Two such players would be a bit too much.

Why, though? If he can beat one, why can't he beat two? Or three? With days off between?

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:18 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:53 pm Oh, not TWO players. He can knock one, for sure. He can take out Shapo, Rublev, RBA, BVDZ, players around there. Those are his peers, and he can play them.
Two such players would be a bit too much.

Why, though? If he can beat one, why can't he beat two? Or three? With days off between?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:46 am

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 9:18 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:53 pm Oh, not TWO players. He can knock one, for sure. He can take out Shapo, Rublev, RBA, BVDZ, players around there. Those are his peers, and he can play them.
Two such players would be a bit too much.

Why, though? If he can beat one, why can't he beat two? Or three? With days off between?

Because he himself is ranked 23, and that means he gets one round of a higher seed (top 16) and then one round of maybe another player around his own ranking.
And, he is still Evans. A fine player, but not a great player. Now, of course, watch him makes the semis.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:30 am Swiatek, Osaka, Rybakina, Andreescu if the courts are slow, Leylah and Raducanu if they are fast. Add BHM to the mix ..nobody outside these is going to win!

Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:16 am

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:30 am Swiatek, Osaka, Rybakina, Andreescu if the courts are slow, Leylah and Raducanu if they are fast. Add BHM to the mix ..nobody outside these is going to win!

I'd be willing to bet some money that none of these will win this year. In fact only Swiatek stands a serious chance.

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:32 am Like ponchi101 stated, Pliskova has one of the best serves on the women's tour, and if that serve is on she can win matches with it. She may not ultimately take the championship at the USO, but I guarantee you she is someone the players do not want to see in an upcoming match.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:48 am

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:32 am Like ponchi101 stated, Pliskova has one of the best serves on the women's tour, and if that serve is on she can win matches with it. She may not ultimately take the championship at the USO, but I guarantee you she is someone the players do not want to see in an upcoming match.

And a lethal forehand too .she is a very good player..her only problem is she is a bit slow, especially on the first step....maybe lacks the 'predator' mindset!

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:05 pm Data points. Does Rafa's loss last night affect his outlook? On the one hand, it was a well played 3 setter, after almost a month and more of no activity. The key issue for him was how were the abs feeling.
On the other hand: he lost to Coric, who has never been a great hard court player, and who is also coming back from injury. So, that was not good.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:08 am Pliskova is a has-been.

Her Wimbledon result last year was a total outlier, as pretty much every event she has played in the last two years has proven. I didn't think she was good enough in her prime to win a slam, and she sure as heck isn't now.

For someone who is supposedly mentally unstable, Halep has won a ton of matches over the years. Cahill did an excellent job with her, but she has done quite well without him, too. The best she ever played at Roland Garros was in 2014 when she made the final without losing a set and forced Sharapova to play the best match I've ever seen her play on clay to beat her in the final. Cahill wasn't her official coach at Wimbledon in 2019, either, although she called him for advice. To win a slam, Halep always will need a little help from her opponents because she doesn't have the easier finishing power too many of them possess.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:58 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:05 pm Data points. Does Rafa's loss last night affect his outlook? On the one hand, it was a well played 3 setter, after almost a month and more of no activity. The key issue for him was how were the abs feeling.
On the other hand: he lost to Coric, who has never been a great hard court player, and who is also coming back from injury. So, that was not good.

The L itself, no. Depends on what it revealed about his ab. The double-fault on set point in the first set was troubling. If it's hampering him a bit, a couple tough B5 matches like the Fritz quarter in Wimbledon and he could be out. I like Medvedev's chances better.

Suliso wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:15 pm I'm officially taking away Iga's USO favorite "title". She's currently nothing of the sort, not even first among equals. I now predict R16 or earlier exit.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:18 pm Well, you beat me to it. I know Keys is a fine player, has a more firepower than Iga, and the match is not over, but I can't see Iga as a favorite over Halep (Toronto) and whomever wins Cincy.
Again, not the losses. Anybody can lose. But the scores in her last losses have been lopsided, to say the least.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:49 pm I am waiting for the end of these two tournaments and I will then, still, be very iffy because building a streak of matches in the WTA is almost impossible these days. That was the reason Iga's 37 streak was so impressive; it is very odd nowadays.
Won't be surprised if Halep losses (@ USO) in 3R. If Ons is gone by 3R, won't be either. Kontaveit also just lost to Zhang, a good player but in theory, the wrong winner of that match.
Osaka has not been the same since the mental issues surfaced. Raducanu, well, we have discussed that ad-nauseum. Leylah ditto.
There will be a betting favorite. But it will simply be a numerical factor for bettors.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:15 am My daughter waits to see who is standing in the second week before she starts paying attention to the WTA draw.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:38 pm I'm not on the BHM train. I watched her play an entire match for the first time against Halep in the Canadian Open final, and even though it was close, I came away less impressed with her than with Pegula in her loss to Halep the day before.

Maybe it's my bias against positive body language after hearing commentators rip Halep for her negative body language over the years and ignore all the times she has won after the negative display while focusing on the few times she has collapsed (the better tell of trouble is when Halep rushes between points, but now I'm getting off point and hijacking my own post). BHM shows incredibly positive body language like Badosa used to, but it's all fake. I loved when CiCi Bellis saw through it during the third set and said the behavior was all coached and that she clearly was mentally fragile at the moment and Halep should take advantage of it, which she did. BMH hits with a lot of topspin, which gives some opponents problems, but she is not a consistent finisher from the baseline and does not move particularly well. She's very confident right now, but I don't see a potential slam winner in her game.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:44 pm
Would you agree to TIER 2 contender? "Given a good draw and a bit of luck, she can make it far" sort of reasoning?

jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:38 pm I'm not on the BHM train. I watched her play an entire match for the first time against Halep in the Canadian Open final, and even though it was close, I came away less impressed with her than with Pegula in her loss to Halep the day before.

Maybe it's my bias against positive body language after hearing commentators rip Halep for her negative body language over the years and ignore all the times she has won after the negative display while focusing on the few times she has collapsed (the better tell of trouble is when Halep rushes between points, but now I'm getting off point and hijacking my own post). BHM shows incredibly positive body language like Badosa used to, but it's all fake. I loved when CiCi Bellis saw through it during the third set and said the behavior was all coached and that she clearly was mentally fragile at the moment and Halep should take advantage of it, which she did. BMH hits with a lot of topspin, which gives some opponents problems, but she is not a consistent finisher from the baseline and does not move particularly well. She's very confident right now, but I don't see a potential slam winner in her game.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 4:46 pm Keys, on the other hand, I still believe can win a slam. It would not surprise me if she loses in the first round of the U.S. Open and her form has been generally bad for a few years, but the chance she has is SHE HITS THE BALL HARDER THAN ANY FEMALE PLAYER WHO EVER LIVED and harder on average than the majority of the ATP players. When she keeps the dang thing between the lines, she's virtually unbeatable, even though it almost never happens enough for her to beat elite players who are playing well.

I've never been more surprised at a tennis result than her beatdown by Stephens in that US Open final five years ago, although their matchups in the next two years revealed it was the right outcome and I was light years away from sussing out their games correctly. But I still feel like Keys is capable of stringing together seven wins in a row if she can stay healthy. Novotna finally did it at Wimbledon after it looked like her chance had passed. and I have a feeling Keys will eventually do it, too.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:42 am I would not go that way. She can beat anybody, but several players can beat her too. I don' think she has the serve to remain competitive for several matches.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:38 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 1:42 am I would not go that way. She can beat anybody, but several players can beat her too. I don' think she has the serve to remain competitive for several matches.

what I am getting at is - she is reliable, she plays consistently at a certain (high) level - nobody but a good player can beat her, she is not going to lose to a mediocre player.. Halep is like that but at a much higher level, of course..

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:20 pm

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.

And we have seen her do this before. Three, four weeks of very good tennis, then she is out by 3R at the next slam.

ponchi101 wrote:

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:05 pm I really think it is time to put Caroline Garcia on the radar for the USO.

And we have seen her do this before. Three, four weeks of very good tennis, then she is out by 3R at the next slam.

Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:34 pm How long is long term? Very long term Kvitova is very good. Not that I'd bet any money on her winning another Slam this late in her career. On the other hand who would I bet on???

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 8:13 pm But that has been the subject for this topic. Look at how little we have spoken about the ATP. We are a bit more sure there.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:31 pm And, you see? Here is another problem with trying to figure out the WTA.
Kvitova is in the finals of Cincy. She is a slam champion, she has reached a hard court slam final, she is a very good player, that lately has been fading away. But, just before Wimby, she won Eastbourne only to lose in 1R, and now, again, she is in the final of a big tournament.
But we have been bitten by this dog so many times. As much as I like Petra, she is as unreliable as can be. She can win tomorrow and again, do the disappearing act in NYC, as she has done so many times. Do we go by the short term data set (WON/Finalist Cincy) or do we go by the long term data set (her last good slam appearance came in 2020).
And the same can be said about Maddie. Do you go short term data set (SF at Cincy) or do we go for the long term data set (has not been close to a slam final since her ONLY final in 2017).
It is so difficult to make a proper choice. And, in these cases, I usually go by the long term data set, unless some recent important data trump that one.

ashkor87 wrote:Whoever wins Cinci is likely to lose early at the USO - two reasons for this..peaking too early and winning a tournament is draining, emotionally and physically..only someone as great as a Serena can win cinci and the uso one after the other...

This year, maybe another confounding factor- court speed at the USO may be quite different from that at Cinci..once you have gotten into a certain rhythm, it is hard to adjust to a different one
These 'warm-up' events should actually be referred to as 'draining' events, 'derailing' ...

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:56 am

ashkor87 wrote:Whoever wins Cinci is likely to lose early at the USO - two reasons for this..peaking too early and winning a tournament is draining, emotionally and physically..only someone as great as a Serena can win cinci and the uso one after the other...

This year, maybe another confounding factor- court speed at the USO may be quite different from that at Cinci..once you have gotten into a certain rhythm, it is hard to adjust to a different one
These 'warm-up' events should actually be referred to as 'draining' events, 'derailing' ...

They have a week before the Open starts and sometimes 8 or 9 days until they play R1. More than enough time to rest. I think the NYC atmosphere - on and off the court - is a bigger factor in who does well in NY. And other X factors.

I don’t believe in peaking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ashkor87 wrote:

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 1:56 am

ashkor87 wrote:Whoever wins Cinci is likely to lose early at the USO - two reasons for this..peaking too early and winning a tournament is draining, emotionally and physically..only someone as great as a Serena can win cinci and the uso one after the other...

This year, maybe another confounding factor- court speed at the USO may be quite different from that at Cinci..once you have gotten into a certain rhythm, it is hard to adjust to a different one
These 'warm-up' events should actually be referred to as 'draining' events, 'derailing' ...

They have a week before the Open starts and sometimes 8 or 9 days until they play R1. More than enough time to rest. I think the NYC atmosphere - on and off the court - is a bigger factor in who does well in NY. And other X factors.

I don’t believe in peaking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If not peaking, what explains similar dynamics between, say, Italian and the French? is the atmosphere in Paris all that different from Rome? I don't think so..

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:29 am It's very difficult to pinpoint who will win, particularly in WTA. I have an easier question to consider: will it be a first time winner or someone who has won a Slam before?

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:23 am Most of Federer's Wimbledon titles were preceded by a Halle title.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:32 pm Starting with Flavia's 2015 USO, there have been 15 first time winners out of the last 27 Slams played. So I am going for first time winner, again.
I don't think today's final will change my way of seeing this so, for me:
Halep 10%
Kvitova 10%
Swiatek 8%
Kontaveit 5%
Osaka 5%
Garcia 5%
BHM 5%
Raducanu 2%
Field 50%

On the men's:
Rafa: 30%
Medvedev: 25%
Tsitsipas: 20%
PCB: 10%
Field: 15%

I think Rafa has the best chance of navigating a draw, especially with the day off. And being the only Big 3 guy left there, he will get to play enough under a roof, so the weather will have no effect on his schedule.

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:26 pm My top 5 contenders on each side for the USO

Women
Pliskova
Swiatek
Garcia
Halep
Rogers

Men
Medvedev
Nadal
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Paul

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:34 pm

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:26 pm My top 5 contenders on each side for the USO

Women
Pliskova
Swiatek
Garcia
Halep
Rogers

Men
Medvedev
Nadal
Tsitsipas
Hurkacz
Paul

Not Coco? You would rate Rogers that high? And Paul above Kyrgios?

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 3:33 pm ...

Field 50% ?! Who is left?! Only Rybakina and Leylah...!! And no Kyrgios? PcB higher than Sinner?

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 4:04 pm Full list of possible WTA winners (95% probability) - the entire top 20 + Pliskova, Kvitova, Garcia, Anisimova, Rybakina, Azarenka, Alexandrova, Riske, Rogers, Mertens, Bouzkova, Osaka, Vondrousova, Tomljanovic, Andreescu, Kerber, Stephens, Giorgi.

So we're at 38 candidates.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 2:32 pm Starting with Flavia's 2015 USO, there have been 15 first time winners out of the last 27 Slams played. So I am going for first time winner, again.
I don't think today's final will change my way of seeing this so, for me:
Halep 10%
Kvitova 10%
Swiatek 8%
Kontaveit 5%
Osaka 5%
Garcia 5%
BHM 5%
Raducanu 2%
Field 50%

On the men's:
Rafa: 30%
Medvedev: 25%
Tsitsipas: 20%
PCB: 10%
Field: 15%

I think Rafa has the best chance of navigating a draw, especially with the day off. And being the only Big 3 guy left there, he will get to play enough under a roof, so the weather will have no effect on his schedule.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 5:29 pm I still can't see Petra winning the US Open. The heat and humidity usually get to her but her survival in that semi vs Keys impressed me. If she does manage to win in New York I wouldn't be upset.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:53 pm 1R-2R probable losers:
Badosa, Jabeur, Mugu, Emma, Leylah, BHM, Krejcikova, Teichmann, Anisimova (injury), Trevisan, Riske, Mertens.
Giorgi.

PROBABLE. I hope I am wrong in many of these cases.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 10:56 pm

AcesAnnie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 6:49 pmPetra is about to lose the 1st set to Garcia. Caroline Garcia is playing right now and at the right time some fantastic tennis. She seems to be taking on anyone who is opposite her on the court and taking them down. I cannot predict how long this streak will last, or if the streak will go far into the USO, but if this quality of tennis continues from her she is going to go far.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:14 am Well well..any list longer than 6-8 is not a prediction, it is a cop-out..I will trim my list only after I see how the court is playing, day 1..

PS: cop-out is also fine, not criticising..

ponchi101 wrote:1R-2R probable losers:
Badosa, Jabeur, Mugu, Emma, Leylah, BHM, Krejcikova, Teichmann, Anisimova (injury), Trevisan, Riske, Mertens.
Giorgi.

PROBABLE. I hope I am wrong in many of these cases.

nelslus wrote:Alternate post: Truly, we don't have a damned clue with the women's draw. I sure wasn't picking Rybakina to win Wimbledon, so.....

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:35 pm

nelslus wrote:Alternate post: Truly, we don't have a damned clue with the women's draw. I sure wasn't picking Rybakina to win Wimbledon, so.....

doesn’t stop people from obsessing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:33 pm Well, otherwise why would we be here?

Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Aug 21, 2022 7:23 am Most of Federer's Wimbledon titles were preceded by a Halle title.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 15, 2022 3:28 am It is, of course, early days yet - no hard court tournaments yet in the second swing.. but we have had one earlier, totally dominated by Swiatek..
and, of course, every hard court is different - they can change the speed of the court by changing the granularity of the surface.

So, until we see how the courts are really playing at Flushing Meadow, it will be difficult to say anything.. but certainly I, for one, place little stock in the tournaments leading up to it - they are all slightly different from the USO especially in speed, and at this level, even a 5% change can be decisive..

with all these caveats then, I would say:

On the Men:

#1 Medvedev - clearly the best hard-courter in the world, defending champion, and Djokovic will probabaly not be there
#2 Sinner - the faster the court, the better he likes it, and he showed us at Wimbledon what he is capable of
# 3 Nadal - if he plays, which, to my mind, is unlikely - hard courts are hardest on his feet and he is about to become a father
# 4 - Kyrgios - he seems ready to play, and his big serve will be lethal here also
# 5 - Alcaraz - he will be able to hit his shots on the high-bouncing surface, no problem..his speed around the court will win him matches

On the Women:

#1 - Swiatek - simpy the best player in the world, totally dominated the hard courts in the first half, will be able to hit her spin
#2 - Osaka - showed us at Miami that she is getting there, and she is a 4-time major champion on hard courts.
#3 - Leylah Fernandez - very impressive at RG, beat Anisimova, for instance, which she had no business doing, on a clay court, if the court is fast like last year, I would make her #1, her reflexes and service return are out of this world.
#4 - Andreescu - her game is getting there and she was the Queen of hard courts before Osaka and Swiatek came along
#5 - Raducanu - if the court is fast, like last year, I would move her to second favorite behind Leylah..
# 6 - Rybakina - she seems a bit slow on her feet, to me,takes a split-second to adjust, especially to low balls.. but, of course, one of my favorite players anyway..

comments?

Deuce wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 7:47 pm It's far too early to be calling Rybakina a 'one hit wonder' a la Raducanu.
She won Wimbledon just a couple of months ago, and simply has not had sufficient time to prove whether she can follow that up with somewhat consistent good results or not.

Last year, no-one was criticizing Raducanu 2 months after the U.S. Open... people waited for about 6 months of poor results before criticizing. Rybakina should receive the same consideration.