2023 FOSP Women's Picks & Results Thread

[naughtyT]

Counterpoint: Everyone has seen Madison Keys play and still several people selected her

ugh ... her and Jabeur should be avoided like the plague. (I really will remember this next time.)

[ponchi101]

Counterpoint: Everyone has seen Madison Keys play and still several people selected her

ugh ... her and Jabeur should be avoided like the plague. (I really will remember this next time.)

That's the problem with Maddie. She can win any match, she loses way too many she should win.

[JTContinental]

Down to 33 for Day 6

The numbers

Clara Tauson 15
Sloane Stephens 9
Daria Kasatkina 4
Anastasia Potapova 2
Elina Svitolina 2
Elina Avaneysan 1

[JTContinental]

Tune in tomorrow for the Round 2 losers roundup known as STANK or DANK

[Suliso]

Are you sure? There was at least one pick of Avanesyan

[JTContinental]

I will double check because my numbers only add up to 32

[Suliso]

Either way I survived for a day, but the way forward is not great. Sever players who should have lost did not...

[JTContinental]

Found it--missed Jazz's entry. TMQ regrets the error

[Suliso]

16 of us get to pick another day.

[JTContinental]

Round 2 is in the books, and the only thing to do now is put a pretty bow on it with a recap of your losing picks. Will your bow be STANK like a dirty catbox in an enclosed, windowless space or DANK like a mysterious secret passageway leading to a cellar full of treasure and secrets? Find out now.

Madison Keys (6 victims) STANK Perhaps the 75 UFEs that flew blisteringly past the baseline by a mile was due to Kayla Day poisoning her water? (Is that reference too dated? Is TMQ not cool anymore?)

Qinwen Zheng (2 victims) DANK-lite Putintseva is always a dangerous floater against these lower seeds, but not a horrible pick. Zheng started the year off great, but seems to be tapering off mid-year.

Varvara Gracheva (1 victim) STANK¹⁹⁴ Ponchi taught me a new trick. TMQ did all the calculations and my math checks out.

Petra Martic (1 victim) DANK You may have been swayed to select Martic based on TMQ's recommendation that she's a good bet to go two or three rounds. You may take comfort in the fact that since I am never wrong, that it is Martic who is incorrect in this situation for losing and not us.

Jelena Ostapenko (1 victim) DANK TMQ watched this match and Stearns seems to be a Collins-esque type, fist pumping after every point, screaming "let's go" like an impatient husband waiting to go to dinner, and bouncing non-stop from foot to foot like an epileptic chihuahua. Ostapenko was annoyed, but Stearns has the game to back up her bravado, and outplayed Alona in the third set.

Rebecca Peterson (1 victim) STANK A quick look at the stats confirms to TMQ this was the last match from which you should have attempted to prognosticate a winner. Peterson hit 9 DFs against 0 aces, only won 46% of her first serve points, and hit 43 UFEs againt 19 winners. Wang's stats were only slightly less horrible.

Liudmila Samsonova (1 victim) DANK Based on recent results, Samsonova should probably have won here, but TMQ is not convinced that her results from last year are sustainable, and will likely drop into Teichmann territory by the end of the year.

[ponchi101]

To the 194th power?
Yep, that's sort of right.

[Improbabledream]

Did I see right that Bencic had two break points to go up a break in the third? Hard to feel terrible about that pick, thats just the WTA being the WTA

I dunno, Bencic has been out injured for a couple months, and she basically never does well on clay outside of Charleston. Plus she was playing someone with three qualifying matches under their belt - just a risky pick all around.

I didnt do my homework, I HATE picking against qualifiers. Yet, I stand by it because 1. They are all risky picks 2. She had 2 break points to go up 4-2 in the third. I also believe BB should make the third round of RG getting out of bed, albeit not great on clay... but decent.
However Im responding to this because I was blown away by your ATP picks. Albot etcheverry olivieri. Brilliant. Like pro gambler stuff. I should be asking you if Im stupid to think cerudolo will beat fritz.

[Improbabledream]

Counterpoint: Everyone has seen Madison Keys play and still several people selected her

ugh ... her and Jabeur should be avoided like the plague. (I really will remember this next time.)

That's the problem with Maddie. She can win any match, she loses way too many she should win.

Shades of James Blake?

[JTContinental]

16 remain, anxiously awaiting their invitation to the Updated Picks & Results thread. But first, you have to make it through today.

The numbers

Bianca Andreescu 5
Ons Jabeur 4
Beatriz Haddad Maia 3
Bernarda Pera 2
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 2

[ponchi101]

...

I didnt do my homework, I HATE picking against qualifiers. Yet, I stand by it because 1. They are all risky picks 2. She had 2 break points to go up 4-2 in the third. I also believe BB should make the third round of RG getting out of bed, albeit not great on clay... but decent.
However Im responding to this because I was blown away by your ATP picks. Albot etcheverry olivieri. Brilliant. Like pro gambler stuff. I should be asking you if Im stupid to think cerudolo will beat fritz.

I did four slams of data about picking against QF's and LL. My conclusion is that it is a high percentage pick. In only one slam (the USO 2021) were they a 50% chance pick. In all others, picking against qualifiers and L. Losers was high percentage.
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