Talk About Tennis 2.0

Since I do not pay much heed to the 'warmup' tournaments, because they have so little predictive power,
Probability estimates (assuming everyone is allowed to play)

Men

Djokovic 70%
Alcaraz 15%
Sinner 10%
The field 5%

Women

Rybakina 45%
Jabeur 20%
Muchova 15%
Sabalenka 10%
Swiatek 5%
The field 5%

Nope! (here we go again )
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%

WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%

I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%

As for the women I'll take the field 80%

I really don't think Fritz is that good .he is in the class of, say, Isner, who never came close to winning a major...

ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:01 pm I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%

As for the women I'll take the field 80%

That adds up to 110 though, but I get the point...

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:57 pm Nope! (here we go again )
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%

WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%

Didn't Swiatek just show us how defending a slam is done? I think priors matter..starting from 0, yes, winning two in a row is difficult, but if you already have one, I dont think it is..Djokovic, Serena, Federer, Nadal have all done it again and again.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:02 am

ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:01 pm I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%

As for the women I'll take the field 80%

That adds up to 110 though, but I get the point...

I really don't see Sinner at all so I'll drop him and leave it with Carlitos 75% and Fritz maybe 20% with the field at 5%.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:23 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:57 pm Nope! (here we go again )
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%

WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%

Didn't Swiatek just show us how defending a slam is done? I think priors matter..starting from 0, yes, winning two in a row is difficult, but if you already have one, I dont think it is..Djokovic, Serena, Federer, Nadal have all done it again and again.

I didn't say it is impossible; I said it is hard. And, we have said this before: comparing ANY current player to that group you mention is unfair.
Remember also. The last time Sabalenka played at W, she reached the Semis. With her serve and her "Blast the first ball" mentality, she will be tough.

I have no predictions other than Novak, but I just read the winners will each pocket $3 million

Muchova not a bad bet to go far, as she’s been to the QFs twice already

BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev

this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..

I think Alcaraz will be exposed by Djokovic again if they happen to meet.

Djokovic 98%
Field 2% (milk chance)

As for Rybakina I don't think she's "2 straight Wimbledon titles" good. 20% chance of that happening maybe? Sabalenka is the true favorite.

Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:19 am I think Alcaraz will be exposed by Djokovic again if they happen to meet.

If Carlitos said that the "task" of facing Novak led to his cramping, after Novak just added one more slam, how is the task now easier?
I agree with you. On grass, Carlitos super speed could actually be exploited. Wrong footing him will see him fall repeatedly.