by ashkor87 Since I do not pay much heed to the 'warmup' tournaments, because they have so little predictive power,
Probability estimates (assuming everyone is allowed to play)
Men
Djokovic 70%
Alcaraz 15%
Sinner 10%
The field 5%
Women
Rybakina 45%
Jabeur 20%
Muchova 15%
Sabalenka 10%
Swiatek 5%
The field 5%
by
ponchi101 Nope! (here we go again
)
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%
WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%
by ti-amie I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%
As for the women I'll take the field 80%
by ashkor87 I really don't think Fritz is that good .he is in the class of, say, Isner, who never came close to winning a major...
by
ashkor87 ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:01 pm
I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%
As for the women I'll take the field 80%
That adds up to 110 though, but I get the point...
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:57 pm
Nope! (here we go again
)
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%
WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%
Didn't Swiatek just show us how defending a slam is done? I think priors matter..starting from 0, yes, winning two in a row is difficult, but if you already have one, I dont think it is..Djokovic, Serena, Federer, Nadal have all done it again and again.
by
ti-amie ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:02 am
ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:01 pm
I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%
As for the women I'll take the field 80%
That adds up to 110 though, but I get the point...
I really don't see Sinner at all so I'll drop him and leave it with Carlitos 75% and Fritz maybe 20% with the field at 5%.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 12:23 am
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 7:57 pm
Nope! (here we go again
)
ATP
Novak 90% (you really are going to bet against this guy now?)
Zverev 3%
Fritz 3%
The field 4%
WTA
Rybakina 40% (defending a slam is so hard...)
Sabalenka 30%
Muchova 10% (just because I am rooting for her)
Swiatek 5%
Field 15%
Didn't Swiatek just show us how defending a slam is done? I think priors matter..starting from 0, yes, winning two in a row is difficult, but if you already have one, I dont think it is..Djokovic, Serena, Federer, Nadal have all done it again and again.
I didn't say it is impossible; I said it is hard. And, we have said this before: comparing ANY current player to that group you mention is unfair.
Remember also. The last time Sabalenka played at W, she reached the Semis. With her serve and her "Blast the first ball" mentality, she will be tough.
by JTContinental I have no predictions other than Novak, but I just read the winners will each pocket $3 million
by JTContinental Muchova not a bad bet to go far, as she’s been to the QFs twice already
by ashkor87 BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev
this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..
by Suliso I think Alcaraz will be exposed by Djokovic again if they happen to meet.
by patrick Djokovic 98%
Field 2% (milk chance)
by Suliso As for Rybakina I don't think she's "2 straight Wimbledon titles" good. 20% chance of that happening maybe? Sabalenka is the true favorite.
by
ponchi101 Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 7:19 am
I think Alcaraz will be exposed by Djokovic again if they happen to meet.
If Carlitos said that the "task" of facing Novak led to his cramping, after Novak just added one more slam, how is the task now easier?
I agree with you. On grass, Carlitos super speed could actually be exploited. Wrong footing him will see him fall repeatedly.
by ashkor87 Main reason I am discounting Saba a bit is she didn't appear to have the 'champion' mentality against Muchova...I thought she had it at the AO but seemed to have lost it again
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:10 am
BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev
this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..
Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).
Medevev needs to make the Semis. After that performance against Mannarino, hard to see.
Zverev is currently ranked 23. To make his ranking, he needs to make 3R. That should not be too tough, for somebody that has performed well on gras before (Halle).
Why do you say that Coco's FH will be hard to exploit? She has that extreme grip and needs time to uncork the stroke. A good, low slice to that side should cause her trouble.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:48 pm
Main reason I am discounting Saba a bit is she didn't appear to have the 'champion' mentality against Muchova...I thought she had it at the AO but seemed to have lost it again
Wait. ONE MATCH, and we are sending her back again to the "she is mentally fragile" department? She won the Aussie and Madrid, reached finals at Stuttgart and IW, and made the semis at the French, plus she is leading the race by a good 500 points.
Isn't that a bit too much of "What have you done lately for me?"
by ashkor87 Re Coco, my diagnosis of her forehand problems is different from yours..I think she lets the ball get too close to her..not her grip. The problem shows up when she has to hit the ball a hundred times..which won't happen on grass
by ponchi101 Our diagnoses of Coco's FH are not mutually exclusive. It could be that her grip it too extreme (but my logic is flawed in that it is not more extreme than Iga's) AND she lets the ball get too close to her.
On grass, the grip makes it hard to play low balls, and there will be more of that surface. That was my part.
by ti-amie If Sabalenka makes the Final, heck even the semis, I'll be surprised. It's not that she lost to Muchova it's HOW she lost to Muchova.
by jazzyg I'd list Djokovic as having a 75-percent chance to win and the field having a 25-percent chance. I don't see a second favorite at this point, but if Djokovic loses, somebody has to win. If Sinner had kept his form last year from the first two sets, there's a really good chance Djokovic would have lost to him. No one is invincible, even a four-time defending champ.
by jazzyg On the issue of Gauff's forehand, I believe her grip is more extreme than Swiatek's. Either way, her athletic ability gives her a chance to do well on grass, but the forehand is an even bigger problem than it is on clay, when she has more time to get set up. I don't take her seriously on any surface but clay, but she might prove me wrong at Wimbledon.
by
skatingfan jazzyg wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 10:48 pm
I don't see a second favorite at this point, but if Djokovic loses, somebody has to win.
Are you sure? They could just cancel the tournament.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:52 pm
Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).
depends on the draw, I suppose...
by ponchi101 Well, we will have to see where all those 4 British semi finalists of this week will land. Not that they can make any damage long term (not yet) but, as an example, they may be dangerous floaters.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:52 pm
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 4:10 am
BHM will do well too, thugh I dont give her a chance of actually winning it.. others who will do well, not win:
WTA: Ostapenko, Coco, Alexandrova (on a fast court, it will be difficult to exploit Coco's forehand, and her speed around the court will be an asset)
ATP: Tiafoe, Musetti,
those who will NOT do as well as their ranking suggests:
WTA: Pegula, Sakkari, Kasatkina
ATP: Medvedev, Zverev
this is going purely by how well their game seems suited to grass..
Pegula and Sakkari have to make the quarters to live up to their ranking. For Pegula that is doable, I think Sakkari will have problems. Kasatkina needs to make 4R. Doable too (but not close to certain).
Medevev needs to make the Semis. After that performance against Mannarino, hard to see.
Zverev is currently ranked 23. To make his ranking, he needs to make 3R. That should not be too tough, for somebody that has performed well on gras before (Halle).
Why do you say that Coco's FH will be hard to exploit? She has that extreme grip and needs time to uncork the stroke. A good, low slice to that side should cause her trouble.
Pegula is #3 seed..she will have to reach semis to live up to her ranking..Coco will have to reach the QFs I agree..neither looks likely.
by ashkor87 Am a bit puzzled by Jabeur..is she not recovered from that injury? She seemed well enough at Charleston..
Sinner seems to be injured now..hope it is not serious..he has a nonzero chance of winning the whole thing...most players don't..
by ti-amie I don't think Jabeur is over her injury.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:21 am
...
Pegula is #3 seed..she will have to reach semis to live up to her ranking..Coco will have to reach the QFs I agree..neither looks likely.
Pegula has dropped to #5 in the rankings, with none of the top players looking like they will miss the tournament. That is the reason I thought she would need quarters.
by
ashkor87 ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:26 am
I don't think Jabeur is over her injury.
Didn't she win Charleston After? Or is it a subsequent injury?
by
skatingfan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 3:31 am
Didn't she win Charleston After? Or is it a subsequent injury?
I think she won in Charleston in spite of the injury. She's clearly dealing with something, but can't seem to decide whether she should rest or play thru it.
by ashkor87 Apparently her brother is getting married around now, so presumably she is otherwise engaged..after the French, she said she is playing Berlin and Eastbourne..she did play berlin
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:23 am
Am a bit puzzled by Jabeur..is she not recovered from that injury? She seemed well enough at Charleston..
Sinner seems to be injured now..hope it is not serious..he has a nonzero chance of winning the whole thing...most players don't..
Jabeur might not be over that terrible loss to BHM at the French.
I still think she'll do well at Wimbledon and maybe win it.
by
meganfernandez ti-amie wrote: ↑Fri Jun 16, 2023 9:01 pm
I'll buck the trend and go with Carlitos 75% depending on his draw.
Fritz could go deep but making the final/winning 25%
Sinner 10%
As for the women I'll take the field 80%
I'll take the field over Iga, too.
Can't wait to see how Muchova follows up RG. Jabeur will be tough again. BHM loves the grass. Kvitova might be in the mix. I expect Sabalenka to make a deep run - I know you were concerned by how she lost to Muchova, but Sabalenka tends to bounce back after adversity. So yeah, field it is for me.
Novak 97%. Can't see anyone touching him with his current level of motivation and fitness.
No one thinks Kyrgios repeats?
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:54 pm
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 3:48 pm
Main reason I am discounting Saba a bit is she didn't appear to have the 'champion' mentality against Muchova...I thought she had it at the AO but seemed to have lost it again
Wait. ONE MATCH, and we are sending her back again to the "she is mentally fragile" department? She won the Aussie and Madrid, reached finals at Stuttgart and IW, and made the semis at the French, plus she is leading the race by a good 500 points.
Isn't that a bit too much of "What have you done lately for me?"
Yes, too harsh. Sabalenka will probably never live down here earlier reputation. I wouldn't be surprised if she wins W.
by
ponchi101 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:09 pm
...
I'll take the field over Iga, too.
Can't wait to see how Muchova follows up RG. Jabeur will be tough again. BHM loves the grass. Kvitova might be in the mix. I expect Sabalenka to make a deep run - I know you were concerned by how she lost to Muchova, but Sabalenka tends to bounce back after adversity. So yeah, field it is for me.
Novak 97%. Can't see anyone touching him with his current level of motivation and fitness.
No one thinks Kyrgios repeats?
I am very surprised that Muchova is not playing in any warm ups; she must obviously be training but no real time on grass.... I don't know.
I don't even think Kyrgios will play. His statements as of late seem to indicate that he is going through a lot.
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 3:35 pm
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:09 pm
...
I'll take the field over Iga, too.
Can't wait to see how Muchova follows up RG. Jabeur will be tough again. BHM loves the grass. Kvitova might be in the mix. I expect Sabalenka to make a deep run - I know you were concerned by how she lost to Muchova, but Sabalenka tends to bounce back after adversity. So yeah, field it is for me.
Novak 97%. Can't see anyone touching him with his current level of motivation and fitness.
No one thinks Kyrgios repeats?
I am very surprised that Muchova is not playing in any warm ups; she must obviously be training but no real time on grass.... I don't know.
I don't even think Kyrgios will play. His statements as of late seem to indicate that he is going through a lot.
He played a warm-up, though. Netfilx might require him to play to be in the next season of Break Point. All the stuff he's saying now is promo for Break Point, I think.
by ponchi101 If all he is saying is just promotion:
If it is true, and it is for promotion, I can't see how such a dark tale can promote the sport (or even himself).
If it is a lie, that would be very low.
I don't know. Tales about cutting yourself are very grim.
by
ti-amie The Boodles Exhibition will take place 6/27 - 7/1 at Stoke Park
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We are very pleased to introduce to you some of the tennis greats that will be appearing at Stoke Park for The Boodles. Stefanos and Sebastian have done amazing things on the tour these last 12 months and more world class players will be announced in the lead up.
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by ashkor87 I had pointed this out earlier...among women, ar least, one thing common to all Wimbledon champions is- they had either won a major already or won a major subsequently...the last one-time champion was Bartoli. It takes class to win Wimbledon..only a Tier1 player can do it..so history does not offer much hope to Ms. other! Of course, Rybakina did surprise a lot of people last year, but they should not have been..Rybakina's class was evident much earlier. And, of course, we can certainly expect her to win some major or the other, again
The men..well, it has been all Big 4 anyway.
by ashkor87 Revised probabilities-
Men
Djokovic 65%
Alcaraz 30%
The field 5%
Women
Rybakina 45%
Kvitova 25%
Sabakenka 10%
Muchova 10%
Jabeur 5%
swiatek 4%
Field 1%
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 5:18 pm
If all he is saying is just promotion:
If it is true, and it is for promotion, I can't see how such a dark tale can promote the sport (or even himself).
If it is a lie, that would be very low.
I don't know. Tales about cutting yourself are very grim.
It's true, but it was a few years ago, right? I think he said 2019 when he was cutting, doing drugs, and went to rehab in London. The reason he's talking about it now is because he talks about it in the new Break Point episodes. I don't think it means he's in that state now. He might be, but that wasn't my understanding.
by
ponchi101 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:51 am
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 5:18 pm
If all he is saying is just promotion:
If it is true, and it is for promotion, I can't see how such a dark tale can promote the sport (or even himself).
If it is a lie, that would be very low.
I don't know. Tales about cutting yourself are very grim.
It's true, but it was a few years ago, right? I think he said 2019 when he was cutting, doing drugs, and went to rehab in London. The reason he's talking about it now is because he talks about it in the new Break Point episodes. I don't think it means he's in that state now. He might be, but that wasn't my understanding.
Ok, I thought it was the other way around. I felt that he is currently going through some stuff.
Hope he has recovered, and that you are correct.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:50 am
Revised probabilities-
Men
Djokovic 65%
Alcaraz 30%
The field 5%
Women
Rybakina 45%
Kvitova 25%
Sabakenka 10%
Muchova 10%
Jabeur 5%
swiatek 4%
Field 1%
Men
Djokovic : 80%
Alcaraz : 5%
Field 15%
Women:
Rybakina 20%
Sabalenka 20%
Swiatek 20%
Kvitova 5%
Field 35%
by ashkor87 Presumably Muchova, Jabeur etc are in field?
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:42 pm
Presumably Muchova, Jabeur etc are in field?
Yes. I believe that Jabeur has not recovered, and since we have seen nothing on grass from Muchova, I am not sure.
Mind you, I believe her game can translate very well to grass. But, no data, so I don't know.
by ashkor87 Jabeur seems to be back, at least, playing .at Eastbourne..
by ponchi101 One guy that did well last year, and now seems like, at best, a 3R loss: Fritz. Three tournaments played, zero wins.
Could be a good pick for 1R. Depending on opponent.
by Suliso Don't do it. He could surprise you with a R1 loss or QF's.
by ponchi101 Remember me? The guy who picked Gracheva to beat Sloane at RG?
I do do those sort of things...
by
Owendonovan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:03 pm
Apparently her brother is getting married around now, so presumably she is otherwise engaged..after the French, she said she is playing Berlin and Eastbourne..she did play berlin
The only true love happening in the tennis world right now is Stefanos and Paula.
by jazzyg Actually, Fritz got one win. It was against another player (Karatsev) on my Green Acres team. Karatsev had a set point in the opening set and the commentators predicted he could go deep at Wimbledon with the right draw. It turns out he fared by far the worst against Fritz of anyone in the three tournaments.
by ashkor87 Swiatek is looking formidable on grass...time to update my estimates-
Women-
Rybakina 30%
Swiatek 25%
Kvitova 10%
Muchova 10%
Ostapenko 10%
Sabalenka 5%
Jabeur 5%
Field 5%
Men
Djokovic 60%
Alcaraz 39%
Field 1%
Sinner may not be a factor...
by
ponchi101 Rybakina. She has not played that much, because she has had a virus. Who knows what she has but, if this thing is still lingering since RG, why assume she will get better before next Monday?
Swiatek. I know you are passionate about your positions but: Iga lost a set to Maria, and just beat Clay Court Specialist Teichmann. "Formidable" is quite a statement
Jabeur. Just lost to Giorgi 3&2. And you still give her a better chance than, for example, Kvitova?
Muchova. No data at all. She will go into Wimby with no matches on grass. Tall order for somebody not named Williams, Graf or Navratilova.
Sabalenka. Ok, we agree.
by ashkor87 Updated again to reduce Jabeur and bring in Ostapenko..you are right about Kvitova, need to consider her..
though jabeur losing to Giorgi could happen to anyone...she is a force of nature, no insurance available against her!
It is only because of Rybakina's illness that so many people have a chance ..I have never given 7 players a nonzero chance!
I am watching how comfortable Swiatek is looking..and remember she is a W junior champion! And her coach has worked with Radwanska ..
by ashkor87 Re Swiatek and her game not being suited to grass, technically Nadal should never have won Wimbledon either - though he won 'only' twice!
by
skatingfan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 1:09 am
Re Swiatek and her game not being suited to grass, technically Nadal should never have won Wimbledon either - though he won 'only' twice!
Nadal, particularly early in his career, really prioritized winning Wimbledon, and playing well on grass. How many times was he playing Queens just days after he'd won the French Open? Whether Swiatek wants to work on her game & push that hard to win Wimbledon remains to be seen.
by ashkor87 possibly, Nadal was motivated by the presence of Federer.. I wonder if Rybakina is enough to motivate Swiatek.. probably not!?
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:27 pm
As for Rybakina I don't think she's "2 straight Wimbledon titles" good. 20% chance of that happening maybe? Sabalenka is the true favorite.
I think priors matter..given that Rybakina has one, versus if she had none, makes a difference. I have reduced my bet on her ONLY because of the viral .
Sabalenka isn't really that good on grass, I think .movement .
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 29, 2023 1:09 pm
Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:27 pm
As for Rybakina I don't think she's "2 straight Wimbledon titles" good. 20% chance of that happening maybe? Sabalenka is the true favorite.
I think priors matter..given that Rybakina has one, versus if she had none, makes a difference. I have reduced my bet on her ONLY because of the viral .
Sabalenka isn't really that good on grass, I think .movement .
She made the semis the last time she played. Seems good enough to be considered.