Great Moments in the History of the Survivor pools

Can you beat the draw? Just one measly pick a day...

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patrick United States of America
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools

#46

Post by patrick »

Did anyone say Gasquet US last second pullout was one?
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools

#47

Post by ponchi101 »

patrick wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:32 pm Did anyone say Gasquet US last second pullout was one?
I started this topic just for NEW great moments. Like, when something happens, we can record it here for posterity. So we don't have a a historical account of the disasters that took place at TAT1.0. I guessed I wanted to have those events like Pospysil @USO, Wozniacki @USO and other similar Titanic events recorded.
But sure, Gasquet's pull out was memorable.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools

#48

Post by ptmcmahon »

ponchi101 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:10 pm I doubt anybody was picking Novax for the first day, so we will see.
But if somebody that enters the pool picks Novax, and loses due to deportation, well, I gather that says a lot about how closely they follow tennis :D
Think Dave meant in case the draw gets majorly altered - ie you pick someone and then they get moved to a different spot.

I definitely won't be picking any seeded players if this isn't resolved at least!
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Kokkinakis

#49

Post by ponchi101 »

January 17th, 2022. Thanasis Kokkinakis, a man with a first name that has clear greek connotations that relate to DEATH (thanos), decided that after having his best week ever on tour he would drive the #1 bandwagon of the day into the deep, dark, shark infested waters of Australia and take with him 31 souls, all of them safe in the belief that he had just won his first tournament ever and was bound to play decent tennis.
How wrong they were.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide Pool. Aslan Karatsev

#50

Post by ponchi101 »

On January 21, 2002, a man that erroneously had his name translated as "LION", got tamed by Adrian Mannarino, a man of such Un-possessing tennis skills that his nickname in Latin American sports channels is "The Professor". Slow balling Karatsev to death, Mannarino in that way put over 50% of the SP out of their misery, whipping them into the realization that even the surest pick simply can blow up in your face with the stench of doubly fermented french Roquefort.
Not to be outdone, Lorenzo Sonego also packed the bags for 12 more souls, losing to somebody so inane I really won't waste time looking it up. The pool was left with just 11 players by the 6th day, all of them laughing their way to their eventual death, at the hands of some other unknown character.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide Pool. Maria Suck-ari

#51

Post by ponchi101 »

January 22nd, 2022. A greek tragedy unfolded. A woman by the name of Maria Sakkari, upon which 53 innocent souls had placed their faith to beat a much less accomplished foe, ended up being a Trojan mare and lost pitifully, barely recording a blip while on court.
A sad unfolding for more than half of the pool, which had already dodged way too many arrows.
Then, Paula Badosa, from Spain, proceeded to lose to Madison Keys, a wonderful player that has never been known for mental fortitude. All in all, only five souls survived the day.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Qualifiers. AO22

#52

Post by ponchi101 »

I worked out these numbers for the 2021 USO. These are the same figures for the Aussie:
WTA
Tsurenko. 1R. Lost to Barty(1)
Bronzetti. 2R
Hartono. 1R. Lost to Anisimova
Zheng. 2R
Kuzmova. 1R. Lost to WC (Wang)
Bucsa. 1R. Lost to Van Uytvanck
Trevisan. 2R.
Dolehide. 1R. Lost to Collins (27)
Volynets. 1R. Lost to Haddad Maia
Jang. 1R. Lost to Kovinic
Tomova. 1R. Lost to Cornet.
Hart. 1R. Lost to Swiatek (7)
Voegele. 1R. Lost to Kasatkina (25)
Marino. 1R. Lost to Bouskova.
Baptiste. 2R
Bektas. 1R. Lost to Samsonova

ATP
Caruso (LL). 1R. Lost to Kecmanovic
Kukushkin. 1R. Lost to Paul.
Escobedo (LL). 1R. Lost to Bublik
Etcheverry. 1R. Lost to Carreño Busta (19)
Tabilo. 1R. Lost to Alcaraz (31)
Albot. 2R.
Milojevic. 1R. Lost to McDonald
Hanfmann. 2R.
Safiulin. 1R. Lost to Molcan.
Barrios Vera. 1R. Lost to Daniel (Q)
Souza. 1R. Lost to Sinner (11)
Trugelitti. 1R. Lost to Tiafoe.
Marterer. 1R. Lost to Fritz (20)
Lehecka. 1R. Lost to Dimitrov (26)
Skatov. 1R. Lost to Gombos (Q)
Gomez. 1R. Lost to Cilic (27)
Machac. 2R.
Broady. 1R. Lost to Kyrgios.

It did not work that well for the qualies this time. For the WTA, if you exclude those that ended up playing seeded players, they went 3-8. For the ATP, excluding the 6 matches Vs seeded players, they went 3-9. No qualifier beat a seeded player (it happened at the USO) and generally, this time it was a good idea to pick against qualifiers in the first round.
So, the data for the Aussie seem different than for the USO. Let's check it again by RG.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. N. Parrizaz Diaz

#53

Post by ponchi101 »

May 23rd, 2022. Nuria Parrizaz Diaz leads 30 people down to their truly non-descript grave, going down meekly to a french player named... Jeanjean. This is the tennis equivalent of dying at the hands of a person called DIMSUM. LOLLY POP. CHEE CHEE.
What a shame.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. N. Parrizaz Diaz

#54

Post by meganfernandez »

ponchi101 wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 4:46 pm May 23rd, 2022. Nuria Parrizaz Diaz leads 30 people down to their truly non-descript grave, going down meekly to a french player named... Jeanjean. This is the tennis equivalent of dying at the hands of a person called DIMSUM. LOLLY POP. CHEE CHEE.
What a shame.
Never pick against a player with a fantastic name! :)
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. N. Parrizaz Diaz

#55

Post by JTContinental »

meganfernandez wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 5:34 pm
ponchi101 wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 4:46 pm May 23rd, 2022. Nuria Parrizaz Diaz leads 30 people down to their truly non-descript grave, going down meekly to a french player named... Jeanjean. This is the tennis equivalent of dying at the hands of a person called DIMSUM. LOLLY POP. CHEE CHEE.
What a shame.
Never pick against a player with a fantastic name! :)
Or bet against a homer!
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Kokkinakis

#56

Post by ashkor87 »

ponchi101 wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:40 pm January 17th, 2022. Thanasis Kokkinakis, a man with a first name that has clear greek connotations that relate to DEATH (thanos), decided that after having his best week ever on tour he would drive the #1 bandwagon of the day into the deep, dark, shark infested waters of Australia and take with him 31 souls, all of them safe in the belief that he had just won his first tournament ever and was bound to play decent tennis.
How wrong they were.
Yep, I was one of those innocents...should have expected this from Kyrgios' bestie
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Qualies at RG 22

#57

Post by ponchi101 »

Ok, Roland Garros WC, Qualies and LL report. These were the matches in 1R.
ATP
O'Connell (WC) - 1R (Bedene)
Kuznetsov (Q) - 1R (Schwartzman-15)
Varillas (Q) - 1R (FAA - 9)
Ugo Carabelli (Q) - 2R (Karatsev in 1R)
Gojo (Q) -2R (Giannessi (L) in 1R)
Gianessi (LL) - 1R (Gojo (Q))
Potov (Q) - 1R (BVDZ -26)
Moutet (WC) - 2R (Wawrinka in 1R)
Ofner (Q) - 1R (Zverev-3)
Barrere (WC) - 2R (Daniel in 1R)
Mmoh (WC) - 1R (Zapata-Miralles (Q))
Zapata Miralles - 3R
Rodriguez (Q) - 1R (Fritz-13)
Guinard (WC) - 1R (Norrie-10)
Kubler (Q) - 2R (Kudla in 1R)
Borger (Q) - 1R (Khachanov-21)
Londero (LL) - 1R (Alcaraz-6)
Tsonga (WC) - 1R (Ruud)
Tseng (Q) - 1R Sousa
Zeppieri (Q) - 1R (Hurkacz-12)
Gombos (Q) - 1R (Cachin (LL))
Cachin (LL) - 2R (Gombos (Q) in 1R)
Pouille (WC) - 1R (Kolar(Q))
Kolar (Q) - 1R (Pouille (WC))
Agamenone (LL) - 1R (McDonald)
Fratangelo (Q) - 1R (Sinner-11)
Simon (WC) - 2R (1R PCB-16)

Straight up: 7 out of 27 matches.
Playing against seeded players: one win (WC Simon vs PCB), out of 8 matches
Also excluding matches between equal Q's/LL(WC: 16 matches left.
5 out of 16 matches won by Q's/LL/WC. But two were WC that had been high ranked players in the past.

WTA
Tsurenko (Q) - 1R (Swiatek-1)
Schunk (LL) - 1R (Halep-19)
Baptiste (Q) - 1R (Kalinina)
Jeanjean (WC) - 3R (Parrizas Diaz in 1R)
Andrianjafitrimo (WC) - 1R (Pliskova-8)
Ferro (WC) - 1R (Badosa-3)
Selekhmeteva (Q) - 1R (Juvan)
Krunic (Q) - 2R (Rakhimova in 1R)
Zhu (Q) - 1R (Kudermetova-29)
Voleynets (WC) -2R (Golubic in 1R)
Tomova (LL) - 1R (Colins-9)
Contreras Gomez (Q) - 2R (Udvardy in 1R)
Sramkova (LL) - 1R (Kasatkina-20)
Bara (Q) - 1R (Putintseva)
Buzarnescu (LL) - 1R (Brengle)
Grammatikopoulou (Q) - 1R (Saville (WC))
Saville (WC) - 3R (Grammatikopoulou ((Q) in 1R)
Jaquemot (WC) - 2R (Watson in 1R)
Noskova (Q) - 1R (Raducanu-12)
Jani (LL) - 1R (Bencic-14)
Bonaventure (Q) - 1R (Andreescu)
Bjorklund (Q) - 1R (Vekic (Q))
Vekic (Q) - 2R (Bjorklund (Q) in 1R)
Monnet (WC) - 1R (Muchova)
Gasanova (LL) - 1R Bouzkova
Marino (Q) - 1R (Gauff-18)
Bucsa (Q) - 1R (Haddad Maia)
Danilovic (Q) - 2R (Galfi in 1R)
Niemeier (Q) - 1R (Stephens)
Tan (WC) - 1R (Osorio)

Straight up: 8 wins out of 30
Against seeded players: 0 wins out of 10 matches
Also excluding matches between Q's/LL/WC: 18 matches left
6 out of 18 matches won by Q's/LL/WC. Three were WC's although this time they are young players, whom the FFT obviously see as promising (Jeanjean and Jacquemot) and Saville, who has been ranked higher.

So, with three slams now, it seems that our saying of "not betting against Q's/LL" is not supported by data. After last year's USO, qualifiers and LL have won less than 50%. Wildcards against non-seeded players can be seen as a bit more favorable
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Sasnovich

#58

Post by ponchi101 »

Sunday, May 29 2022. On this day, a young woman piloted a full 19 out of 27 people (70%) to an ungodly demise, as she lost to all of 4'12" Martina Trevisan, a girl with a lovely smile but seemingly nothing else. It was so awful, that a new term came to mind when describing the event:
Sasnovavitch!
It will be used, from now on, when a tragedy occurs and one reaches for the Russian language to say something along he lines of "Oh Dear!". Or, if used forcefully, "#$%&#?¡#$%%&$#!?¡*#*#*?&%$¡]}%$&#$#?¡*@@@&%$¡&@ damn!!!!!!"
One wonders whose name should live in infamy from now one: Aliaksandra's or Martina's.
May the souls of the dead ones be protected (at least until Wimbledon 2022).
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Kerber

#59

Post by ponchi101 »

A former champion. A lefty. Her opponent barely squeaked by her two previous rounds. Excellent pick. Right?
Not quite. Angelique Kerber, on Friday July 1st 2022, decided to play a listless match, reminding people that time waits for no one, and she has been dating him for some time now. Sure, two close sets, which only made it more miserable for 21 souls, around 40% of the remaining 49 souls. And then, Alison Riske-Amritraj, a fine grass court player but a person that is warning her, with her very own last name, that picking her is never something without peril, wiped out 6 more, to lead a day of slaughter and suffering.
The smorgasbord at the pub, on the other hand, was superb.
May these people rest in peace. AFTER the fortnight. Right now, suffer as you must.
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Re: Great Moments in the History of the Suicide pools. Qualifiers W22

#60

Post by ponchi101 »

Once again, I looked at the numbers for qualifiers, WC's and LL's after the first round, to keep testing whether picking AGAINST A QUALIFIER (a common NO-NO in SP lore) is actually bad.
---0---
Legend: ALL players in first column are Q's, unless marked as WC or LL. If losing after 1R, the second name is the player they played IN THE FIRST ROUND, plus ranking.

ATP
Rosol - 1R (Basilashvili 22)
Rijthoven (WC) - 4R
Wawrinka -1R (Sinner 10)
Couacaud - 1R (Isner 20)
Clarke (WC) - 1R (Harrison Q)
Harrison - 2R (Clarke)
Albot - 1R (Goffin)
Vavassori - 1R (Tiafoe 23)
Merterer - 1R (Bedene)
Peniston (WC) - 2R (Laaksonen)
Purcel - 1R (Mannarino)
Ymer (LL) - 1R (Garin)
Huesler - 1R (Grenier LL)
Kolar (LL) - 1R (Bonzi)
Kukushkin - 1R (Brooksby 29)
Bergs (WC) - 1R (Draper)
Broady (WC) - 3R
Kozlov (LL) - 1R (Schwartzman 12)
Kuhn - 1R (Nakashima)
Jubb (WC) - 1R (Kyrgios)
Ritschard - 1R (Tsitsipas 4)
Zapata Miralles - 1R (Sock Q)
Novak - 2R (Bagnis)
Kubler - 3R (Evans 28)
Gray (WC) - 2R (Tseng)
Borges (LL) - 1R (McDonald)

Straight up: 6 wins, 20 loses
Matches between Q, LL, WC's: 2. 24 matches to further look at.
Matches against seeds: 8. 7 loses, 1 win
Matches against non-seeds: 16. 6 wins, 10 loses

WTA
Fett - 1R (Swiatek 1)
Kartal (WC) - 1R (Pattinama LL)
Pattinama (LL) - 2R (Swiatek)
Harrison - 2R (Rus)
Bektas - 1R (Andreescu)
Vandeweghe (LL) - 1R (Rybakina)
Chirico - 1R (Badosa 4)
Fourlis - 1R (Flipkens)
Schunk - 1R (Buzarnescu)
McHale - 1R (SST 32)
Williams (WC) - 1R (Tan)
Boulter (WC) - 3R (Burel)
Chwalinska - 2R (Siniakova)
Swan (WC) - 1R (Garcia)
Contreras - 1R (Linette)
Hontama - 2R (Tauson)
Kawa- 2R (Marino)
Bjorklund - 1R (Jabeur 3)
Hives - 1R (Sakkari 5)
Saville (WC) - 1R (Tomova)
Sharma - 1R (Maria)
Wickmayer - 1R (Zhu)
Inglis - 1R (Galfi)
Burrage (WC) - 1R (Tsurenko)

Straight up: 6 wins, 18 loses
Matches between Q, LL, WC's: 1. 23 matches to further look at.
Matches against seeds: 4. 4 loses.
Matches against non-seeds: 19. 5 wins, 11 loses

After a full year of looking at these numbers, I can no longer say that picking against a qualifier IS A BAD STRATEGY. At the '21 USO, they seemed to be a 50% choice. But here at Wimby, as it happened at the AO and RG, picking against them is a HIGH percentage plot. They seem to win only about 1/3 of the times, AGAINST non-seeds, and against seeds, regardless of them being a high or low seed, their percentage has been awful. Here, only one Q going against a seed won (Evans, 28) and WC's did marginally better, still falling below 50%.
So, I may do it once more at this year's USO but, as a rule, it seems picking AGAINST a Q, specially if you are a medium to low seed, is a good percentage move.
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