'23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
-
- Posts: 4884
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2021 6:18 am
- Location: India
- Has thanked: 2489 times
- Been thanked: 882 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Watson says 53% Medvedev 47% Djokovic..sounds fair to me ..I would say 55-45, practically the same...
- mick1303
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:39 pm
- Location: Ukraine
- Has thanked: 72 times
- Been thanked: 358 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
-
- Posts: 1521
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2020 2:00 am
- Location: Smiths Falls
- Has thanked: 1111 times
- Been thanked: 907 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
I'm not sure that a computer program is likely to suffer from recency bias.mick1303 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:43 am This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
- mick1303
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:39 pm
- Location: Ukraine
- Has thanked: 72 times
- Been thanked: 358 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
It very much can )) It depends on the weight it puts on the recent matches. I would even say that computer program is more likely to do this thing than a human observer.skatingfan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 6:49 amI'm not sure that a computer program is likely to suffer from recency bias.mick1303 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 10, 2023 5:43 am This is a classical recency bias - one victory over Alcaraz erases all previous history between Medvedev and Djokovic (which is very relevant). IMO their H2H 9-5 pretty much reflects their respective chances. It translates to roughly 65-35 in favor of Djokovic.
-
- Posts: 4884
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2021 6:18 am
- Location: India
- Has thanked: 2489 times
- Been thanked: 882 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Yes, certainly AI can have all kinds of biases but it learns with every match so unless recency is a real factor.. I personally don't think AI adjusts yet for nuances like crowd support, response to pressure, individual motivation or even match-ups of strengths and weaknesses, so I tend to disbelieve the AI prediction, normally. In this case, I was very impressed with M, rather unimpressed with Dj, and expect the crowd to be against both! The court is also fairly fast, which Med likes, So 55-45 Medvedev..
- mick1303
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:39 pm
- Location: Ukraine
- Has thanked: 72 times
- Been thanked: 358 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Too many factors to choose from. Hard to prioritize. You can look at success rate specifically in the finals as the measure of ability to handle the biggest pressure there is in tennis. Djokovic won 23 against 12 losses. Almost 2 out of 3. Meds won 1 out of 4 - 25%.
- mick1303
- Posts: 588
- Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:39 pm
- Location: Ukraine
- Has thanked: 72 times
- Been thanked: 358 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Medvedev was brilliant in the semis. But there was little pressure on him - Alcaraz was very strong betting favorite. This string of predictions tries to put that pressure on him. Although some prominent tennis observers on Yt did pick Djok: namely Gill Gross and Canadian Steven from Slice.
- ponchi101
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14900
- Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:40 pm
- Location: New Macondo
- Has thanked: 3895 times
- Been thanked: 5695 times
- Contact:
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
I learned a long time ago not to bet against Novak.
60-40 Novak. But won't be surprised if Daniil wins (as I was when he beat Alcaraz).
60-40 Novak. But won't be surprised if Daniil wins (as I was when he beat Alcaraz).
Ego figere omnia et scio supellectilem
- ti-amie
- Posts: 23625
- Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:44 pm
- Location: The Boogie Down, NY
- Has thanked: 5404 times
- Been thanked: 3369 times
-
Honorary_medal
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
- meganfernandez
- Posts: 4968
- Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2020 2:04 pm
- Has thanked: 2527 times
- Been thanked: 1746 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
A niche tennis reporter at the US Open...this guy works his tail off to find stories about lesser-known players that their local papers will commission. He makes about $50 per story.
https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2 ... -reporter/
https://www.poynter.org/business-work/2 ... -reporter/
- ponchi101
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14900
- Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:40 pm
- Location: New Macondo
- Has thanked: 3895 times
- Been thanked: 5695 times
- Contact:
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Fun story
Ego figere omnia et scio supellectilem
-
- Posts: 2411
- Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 7:23 pm
- Location: Seattle
- Has thanked: 763 times
- Been thanked: 986 times
Re: '23 US Open Men's Draws and Discussion 8/28 - 9/10
Berrettini has pulled out with a foot injury, replaced by Zizou Bergs in the draw
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests