Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2476

Post by ponchi101 »

I caught today the Colombian numbers.
Colombia, with a bit under 50MM people (1/40th the world population) is having 200 deaths a day. 1/8th of the number quoted by the post above, despite smaller than the USA by a lot.
Countries are simply not reporting or counting. In that sense, the pandemic IS over; if people no longer care, there is no phenomenon to report.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2477

Post by dryrunguy »

Here is the latest Situation Report. Just when I start to think these things are getting a little redundant and less useful, they send one out that is chock full of interesting stuff. Of particular note in this one:

1) Safety issues discovered upon inspecting the Bloomington, Indiana facility producing Moderna's bivalent booster
2) The lack of interoperability between public health reporting systems (we knew this already, but I didn't know some agencies were actually resorting to fax machines to report data)
3) The largest COVID-19 fraud case to date--47 people got COVID money from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to feed hungry children, but they actually used the money to buy luxury items and real estate. Should have known that was coming. Wonder if Brett Favre's name is going to come up in that one (just kidding, kind of...).

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 610.4 million cumulative cases and 6.51 million deaths worldwide as of September 21. Global weekly incidence remained stable, increasing 2% over the previous week. Global weekly mortality continued to decrease, for the fifth consecutive week—down 15% from the previous week.

Weekly incidence declined in most WHO regions, ranging from -8% in South-East Asia to -32% in the African region. As predicted last week, the decreasing trend in Europe reversed, with the region recording a 10% increase in weekly incidence. Weekly incidence in the Western Pacific region remained relatively stable, increasing 3% from the previous week.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC is reporting 95.6 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1,049,101 deaths. Daily incidence continues to decline, down to 55,332 new cases per day. Daily mortality appears to have plateaued, with an average of 356 deaths per day. **
**Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to exhibit downward trends, with decreases of 6.8% and 11.1%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the last week of July, similar to trends in daily incidence.

The BA.5 sublineage continues as the dominant strain in the US, accounting for 84.8% of sequenced specimens. Since last week, however, several other Omicron sublineages show evidence of possible growth advantage over BA.5, including BA.4.6 (10.3%), BF.7 (1.7%), and BA.2.75 (1.3%). The prevalence of BA.4 continues to fall, down to 1.8% the week of September 17.

EMERGING VARIANTS As the Northern Hemisphere moves into its colder months, scientists and officials are following the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 more closely than ever, watching for new variants of interest (VOI) and variants of concern (VOC). As of now, Omicron subvariants are capturing the most international attention, and experts remain uncertain as to which variant will be dominant going into fall. More specifically, the sublineages of the Omicron subvariants BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 are beginning to show growth advantages compared to their parents. In the United States, prevalence of BA.4 and BA.5 appears to be decreasing, while Omicron sublineage cases have been rising. BA.4.6, a sublineage of BA.4, is now estimated to make up 10.3% of new cases. BF.7, a BA.5 sublineage, now is estimated to make up 1.7% of new cases. BA.2.75, a BA.2 sublineage, is estimated to make up 1.3% of new cases. BF.7 has garnered particular concern among the scientific community, as it has recently made up more than 10%, and even over 25%, of new cases in some Western European nations. However, some experts have argued that BQ.1, a BA.5 sublineage, and BA.2.75.2, a sublineage of BA.2.75 that demonstrates additional immune evasion, also pose a threat. While still too early to tell which sublineage might become predominant, and where, the continuously evolving SARS-CoV-2 promises to keep the attention of scientists and public health practitioners, even as much of the world wants to move on.

BIVALENT BOOSTER FOR YOUNG CHILDREN According to an updated Fall Vaccination Operational Planning Guide released by the US CDC on September 20, bivalent SARS-CoV-2 vaccine boosters could be available for children ages 11 years old and younger starting in October, pending authorization from the US FDA. Dr. Peter Marks, Director of the FDA Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), confirmed that the updated boosters for 5- to 11-year-olds are expected to receive emergency use authorization in the next few weeks. The boosters for younger children aged 6 months to 5 years are “a few months away,” according to Dr. Marks.

Currently, the updated bivalent booster shots from Pfizer-BioNTech are authorized for anyone aged 12 years and older who has completed their primary vaccination series, and Moderna’s bivalent booster is available to those aged 18 years and older who have completed the primary series. Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna are working on bivalent vaccines for children aged 5 to 11 years and 6 to 17 years, respectively. While children aged 6 months and older can now receive primary vaccinations against COVID-19 (3 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech and 2 doses of Moderna), they remain ineligible for booster doses.

More than 1,400 children and teens have died of COVID-19 in the US, according to CDC data, but vaccination rates for the youngest children remain low, worrying health officials. Only 38% of children aged 5-11 and 8% of those aged 6 months to 4 years have received at least one dose of vaccine. Correspondence published today in the New England Journal of Medicine discusses a study showing that immunity from vaccination and previous infection provided considerable protection against hospitalization and death among children 5 to 11 years of age, but that protection rapidly waned over 16 weeks, particularly against the Omicron variant. The authors note that the rapid decline in protection against Omicron infection conferred by vaccination and previous infection provides support for booster doses among this age group. However, children will first need to finish their 2- or 3-dose primary series before becoming eligible to receive an updated booster when authorized.

MODERNA BIVALENT BOOSTER SUPPLY Providers across the US have reported supply shortages of Moderna’s new bivalent SARS-CoV-2 booster, leading pharmacies and local health groups to offer limited appointments for receiving the shot. A Moderna spokesperson anticipated that availability constraints would be resolved in a few days and assured that the company is committed to delivering 70 million doses of the updated bivalent vaccine by the end of the year. No supply issues have been reported for the Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent booster.

The shortage is being attributed to delays in Moderna receiving vaccine supply from its production facility operated by Catalent Inc. in Bloomington, Indiana. The facility was not cleared by the FDA to make Moderna’s new booster shots until recently. The FDA conducted a routine inspection of the facility amid concerns that it was not sufficiently sterile. In its Form 483 notice, the FDA cited observations related to quality control, recordkeeping, failure to follow procedures and address discrepancies in certain batches, misuse of equipment, and contamination in vials packaged at the Catalent facility. The FDA shared that it plans to include doses produced in the Catalent facility in the emergency use authorization (EUA) of the Moderna bivalent vaccine. The FDA also inspected a second production facility, which is operated by Thermo Fisher Scientific, and found no safety issues at that site.

Meanwhile, health officials recommend those eligible to receive Pfizer-BioNTech’s booster shot. The companies have shipped more than 21 million doses of their booster and plan to provide 100 million doses by the end of November. To accommodate locations that cannot switch to the Pfizer-BioNTech shots and need immediate supplies of Moderna’s, the federal government is adjusting ordering thresholds in the coming weeks. Efforts to maintain production of all available booster shots are a crucial component of the fall booster campaign in the US, with the federal government strongly encouraging US residents to receive boosters as new cases are expected to rise this fall and winter.

US FDA TEST AUTHORIZATION The US Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Inspector General (OIG) on September 21 released a report criticizing the use of the emergency use authorization (EUA) mechanism by the US FDA during the early months of the pandemic. The report cited changing standards for new EUAs for COVID-19 tests from January 2020 to May 2020, sometimes allowing flawed diagnostic and serology tests—such as the initial US CDC assay which was unusable for weeks—to be used to increase testing availability at the cost of quality. Additionally, failure of the FDA to engage with public health laboratories, who were responsible for initial testing efforts, also led to testing challenges. These critiques echo those in a recent study published in the Journal of Public Health Management & Practice describing the experience of public health laboratories in 27 states during the pandemic from 2020 through early 2021. Furthermore, test developers interviewed by OIG noted that, despite FDA support for EUA requests, the EUA process for new COVID-19 tests remained frustrating and confusing to navigate. To help prevent similar issues during future health emergencies, the OIG report recommended that the FDA revise EUA guidance, improve resources for test developers and tracking of EUA submission monitoring, establish better communication between FDA and the lab community, and incorporate lessons learned into a national testing strategy beyond the EUA process.

DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSIS Outmoded and underfunded public health information and data systems in the US are crippling epidemiologists’ and other experts’ ability to fully understand the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently harming federal, state, and local responses. With state and local health departments having to resort to communicating data through antiquated fax machines, spreadsheets, emails, and phone calls, a lack of interconnected data systems has forced US health officials to extrapolate and make educated guesses about who is being hospitalized with COVID-19, how well vaccines are working, and who is being infected with which variants.

As new SARS-CoV-2 bivalent vaccine boosters are being rolled out in the US, this type of data is more important than ever. Understanding the demographics of the 400-500 people dying of COVID-19 each day in the US would help public health officials better target resources to help prevent these deaths. While we know that vaccination reduces the risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19, there is little data on whether people who end up in intensive care units (ICUs) have been vaccinated or boosted, which shots they received, when they got them, and if they had an immune response. Nor are there data on the COVID-19 treatments they received.

Overall, people are less likely to die of COVID-19 now because of collective immunity from vaccinations or natural infections. But the disease is a leading cause of death and likely will remain so indefinitely. Older adults continue to be at an increased risk of severe illness and death nationwide, and racial and ethnic disparities persist. A recent study published in PNAS suggested that while racial and ethnicity-related mortality disparities among Whites and 6 other groups worsened with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, most of those disparities evolved to pre-pandemic levels after the first year. Notably, however, 2 years into the pandemic mortality disparities remained exacerbated for American Indian or Alaska Native people and for Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander people when compared to the White population, driven by mortality among those under aged 65 years. The study authors call for new policies and community investments addressing the pandemic’s unequal impacts.

Still, knowing who is dying of COVID-19 will help best target resources to prevent these deaths. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the US CDC has received more funding to help modernize its data and analysis systems, but experts worry the nation’s lawmakers could once again slip into a boom-or-bust funding pattern, leaving the country's public health data systems weak and underfunded.

PANDEMIC FRAUD The US Department of Justice announced charges against 47 people accused of carrying out what officials said is the largest COVID-19 fraud scheme to date. Federal prosecutors said the alleged scheme involved the creation of fake entities that claimed to be providing meals to tens of thousands of children. After being reimbursed more than US$250 million from a US Department of Agriculture child-nutrition program, those charged used the money to purchase luxury items and real estate instead of feeding children, according to prosecutors. The 47 defendants are facing charges related to conspiracy, wire fraud, money laundering, and paying and receiving kickbacks. The Justice Department has recently stepped up its efforts to identify and prosecute those involved in theft from programs meant to provide aid during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2478

Post by ti-amie »

More details on what the report summarizes.

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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2479

Post by ponchi101 »

Vaccination.
Reports here in Colombia say that a lot of vaccines are in danger of expiring. But I am not sure if it is because almost everybody has been vaccinated, or people has stopped.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2480

Post by dryrunguy »

Here's the latest Situation Report. The cryptic lineages section is really interesting.

BTW, they will be shifting to providing updates just once a week.

::

PANDEMIC PREDICTIONS Recent increases in COVID-19 cases in the UK could signal that the US is heading into a fall and winter COVID-19 surge. Historically, the US lags the UK in case trends by about one month, and the UK trend began rising the week of September 17. Some models predict US case trends will continue to decrease into October before beginning to rise, and while current predictions suggest a big increase in infections, the infection-detection rate likely will remain low due to declines in testing. Because the US population has some underlying immunity, and most experts agree the country has the pandemic under control, the death toll is expected to be rather modest.

But this modeling is based on the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, and the emergence of a new variant or subvariant could upend these predictions, particularly if there is a reduction in cross-variant immunity. BA.5 continues to account for the majority of new COVID-19 cases in the US (83.1%), but BA.4.6 (12%) and BF.7 (2.3%), an offspring of BA.5, are beginning to show growth advantage over BA.5. BF.7 has an additional genetic mutation in the spike protein compared with BA.5, which could reduce the efficacy of the monoclonal antibody treatment Evusheld, one of the few remaining therapies effective against BA.4 and BA.5. The mix of variants in the UK appears to be about the same as the US, although epidemiologists are watching to see whether emerging variants such as BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75 grow in proportion.

US President Joe Biden's declaration that the COVID-19 pandemic is "over" during a "60 Minutes" interview on September 18 raised eyebrows among many experts, most of whom agree that while some countries are in a better place than during the first year of the pandemic—exemplified by the fact that many in the US and elsewhere are returning to their pre-pandemic lifestyles—COVID-19 should remain an urgent priority. In the US, around 400 people die every day due to COVID-19, more than triple the average number who die from influenza.

The declaration by President Biden came shortly after WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated that the end of the pandemic was "in sight." Both statements drew condemnation from WHO Senior Advisor Dr. Bruce Aylward, who called on high-income countries comfortable with the state of the pandemic within their borders to increase aid to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) that are still struggling to get COVID-19 under control and gain access to vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, and other tools. Additionally, allowing the SARS-CoV-2 virus to maintain footholds in LMICs and elsewhere could lead to new variants with the ability to escape immunity. There remains much work to do, experts agree, as many health disparities between high-income nations and LMICs persist and will only get worse if aid is reduced or cut off. While some may feel COVID-19 is under control in places like the US, the pandemic is not over.

US CDC INFECTION CONTROL GUIDANCE The US CDC published changes to its guidance on infection prevention and control recommendations for healthcare personnel during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the major alterations includes ending the overarching recommendation that everyone wear masks in nursing homes and hospitals. Previously, the guidance asked that everyone wear appropriate masks and respirators in these facilities, but the update only maintains that recommendation in communities experiencing high levels of transmission. The CDC said the change was made to reflect the high levels of immunity derived from vaccinations and prior infection, as well as the availability of effective treatments.

Nevertheless, elderly populations have been hit hard by the pandemic and remain among the most vulnerable. There are concerns that the new recommendation could make life even more difficult for elderly and immunocompromised people to safely navigate healthcare settings, potentially leading to fewer care options and increased stress and isolation among populations that already have suffered greatly. Additionally, many public health experts highlighted the importance of masking in the US as the nation heads into its fall and winter seasons and predictions of a new surge in COVID-19 cases. Appropriately worn masks and respirators serve as source controls that can prevent transmission during a season when many people are gathering indoors, but public appetite for new mask mandates is at an all-time low. The CDC’s guidance leaves the responsibility to take actions to protect vulnerable populations in individuals’ hands.

UPDATED BOOSTERS FOR YOUNGER CHILDREN Updated bivalent booster vaccine doses for younger children in the United States likely will be available before the end of this year. On September 23, Moderna announced in a tweet that the company is requesting emergency use authorization (EUA) from the US FDA for its vaccine booster bivalent vaccine that targets both the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 and the BA.4/5 subvariants of Omicron for adolescents aged 12 to 17 years and children aged 6 to 11 years. The company’s application for the youngest children, ages 6 months to under-6 years, is expected to be completed by year's end.

On September 26, Pfizer-BioNTech announced they have completed a submission to the FDA requesting EUA for the companies' Omicron-adapted bivalent booster for children aged 5 to 11 years. The companies also have begun a Phase 1/2/3 study to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of different doses and dosing regimens of bivalent vaccine in children ages 6 months through 11 years of age. Additionally, they expect to file for marketing authorization of the bivalent booster for children aged 5-11 with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in the coming days. Bivalent boosters from both Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech are already authorized for adults and individuals aged 12 years and older, respectively, in the US. The FDA could make a decision on bivalent boosters for younger children before the next meeting of the US CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), scheduled for October 19-20.

GLOBAL VACCINE SUPPLY Last year, the US government committed to providing 1.1 billion doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Last week, however, Pfizer and the US government agreed to lower the number of Pfizer-BioNTech SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses going to LMICs this year, with Pfizer agreeing to reduce its delivery commitment from 1 billion doses to 600 million doses. Pfizer said while it can meet its previous 1 billion dose commitment, the revised commitment reflects reduced demand for vaccine doses in LMICs, barriers in administration, and vaccine hesitancy, and provides more time for the US and its partners to address delivery and administration challenges. The US will retain an option to purchase the additional 400 million doses for its international program after this year. Under the US contract, Pfizer previously delivered more than 400 million vaccine doses to 79 countries through the COVAX initiative.

During earlier stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, many experts criticized high-income countries for hoarding vaccines and other pandemic supplies, thereby perpetuating inequitable access to lifesaving supplies during the height of the pandemic. The COVAX program was designed to ensure equitable access to vaccines and has donated more than 1.7 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to 146 countries. While the program ramped up, demand for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines outmatched the supply of approved products and vaccine manufacturers prioritized bilateral customers. Pfizer executives shared that the global effort to develop, manufacture, and distribute vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic revealed important lessons around how to configure supply chains and design tighter logistics strategies for the future. While some countries are declaring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues persist in many parts of the world, and only 24% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose of vaccine. The shift in attention away from the pandemic was highlighted last week during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) meetings, where discussions about vaccine equity remained notably absent.

Despite slowing vaccine donation efforts, the US government and Pfizer remain committed to providing other critical supplies to LMICs. On the sidelines of the UNGA at the COVID Global Action Plan Ministerial Meeting, the US government announced plans to establish a clearinghouse of medical supplies to help other countries combat COVID-19, expand its program to distribute therapeutic drugs in 10 countries, expand access to medical oxygen, train healthcare workers in LMICs, and introduce early testing systems that can help healthcare workers identify COVID-19 patients who qualify for treatment. Additionally, Pfizer recently announced its intent to supply up to 6 million treatment courses of Paxlovid, its COVID-19 oral treatment, to the Global Fund as part of its COVID-19 Response Mechanism (C19RM). Depending on local regulatory approvals, 132 Global Fund-eligible LMICs will be able to procure Paxlovid beginning this year. These commitments are a crucial component of a global response to COVID-19, which exposed and continues to worsen concerning gaps in global pandemic preparedness and response systems.

CRYPTIC LINEAGES Nature examines the work of a team of scientists using wastewater surveillance to hunt for the next SARS-CoV-2 variant. In January 2022, the team identified a lineage that shared several mutations with the predominant Omicron variant of concern (VOC) but came from a different branch of the viral family tree. They then traced the cryptic lineage back to one Wisconsin business employing fewer than 30 people. None of the employees tested by nasal swab have shown signs of the lineage, leading the researchers to suspect an individual might be harboring the virus in their gut. While it does not appear the cryptic lineage is spreading, it has gained additional mutations since first being identified. Even if they do not identify the Wisconsin individual in which the virus is evolving, the researchers hope their sleuthing will inform future efforts to identify, track, and forecast emerging SARS-CoV-2, or other virus, variants.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2481

Post by Deuce »

Just a reminder...

"We're Not Out of the Woods With This Virus"...

I, myself, am currently sick with some sort of virus. It began rather suddenly on Sunday with a dull, persistent headache and a throat that was increasingly sore when swallowing. On Saturday, I felt perfectly fine - 2 hours of pickleball, plus some biking...
The sore throat has now been replaced by coughing and stuffy sinuses (blowing my nose a lot).
Taste and smell are still ok - though both are always altered with most viruses.

Up to this point, it feels like many other viruses I've had throughout my life - a moderate case... not severe, and not mild, but moderate.
I hesitate to do a rapid COVID test, because, if it shows positive, it simply means that I may have COVID, or I may not. And if it shows negative, it means that I may not have COVID, or I may. When a given form of a test is only 75% - 80% accurate, it really tells you nothing in the end in practical terms. And the rapid test is the only test currently available to me.

And so I will do the responsible thing and avoid others as much as possible over the next 8 days or so... and then we'll see.

This is the first time I've been sick since the pandemic began. I've been very careful - always wearing a mask indoors, and outright avoiding certain situations. Whether I have COVID or not, some type of virus somehow made it through my defences, which is surprising.
R.I.P. Amal...

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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2482

Post by dryrunguy »

Here's the latest Situation Report. It's packed. I have bolded the paragraphs that really stood out. But all the way to the end, it's just packed.

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 617 million cumulative cases and 6.53 million deaths worldwide as of October 6. Global weekly incidence remained relatively steady at slightly more than 3 million cases for the fourth consecutive week, decreasing 2% compared to the previous week. Weekly incidence in Europe increased for the third consecutive week, up 18% over the previous week. All other regions reported decreasing trends. Global weekly mortality continued to decrease, for the seventh consecutive week, down 11% from the previous week. Last week’s total—8,491 deaths—was the lowest since the week of March 16, 2020.*
*The WHO dashboard notes that data from the Africa Region are incomplete.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC is reporting 96.3 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1.06 million deaths. Daily incidence continues to decline, down to 44,414 new cases per day, the lowest average since April. Average daily mortality now appears to be decreasing steadily, down from a recent high of 505 deaths per day on August 12 to 330 on October 4.**
**Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to exhibit downward trends, with decreases of 6.9% and 8.1%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the end of July, approximately 1 week after the peak in daily incidence.

The BA.5 sublineage continues as the dominant strain in the US, accounting for 81.3% of sequenced specimens; however, its estimated prevalence has decreased for 4 consecutive weeks. Several other Omicron sublineages are exhibiting increasing trends over the past several months. Notably, the BA.4.6 sublineage is up to 12.8%, BF.7 is up to 3.4%, and BA.2.75 is up to 1.4%. Relative to the BA.5 sublineage, these estimates are low, but the increasing trends suggest that these subvariants may have some advantage over BA.5.

EMERGING SUBVARIANTS The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to evolve, with multiple emerging sublineages of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) poised to play a dominant role in the next surge. As noted above, several sublineages are increasing in prevalence in the US as the current dominant strain, BA.5, begins to wane. At this point, it is unclear if the next principal variant would be capable of evading immunity conferred by vaccination, including Omicron-specific booster doses, or prior infection with other variants, but researchers are already working to identify key mutations and project their impact. In contrast to previous surges, the forecasted fall/winter surge may not be driven by a single variant, as was the case with the Delta and Omicron surges in 2021 and earlier in 2022. In fact, WHO officials recently indicated that they are currently monitoring more than 300 Omicron sublineages.

Several of these sublineages are particularly concerning, including BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 that evolved from BA.5 and BA.2.275 and XBB that evolved from BA.2. The BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 sublineages are currently circulating in Europe, which could forecast a fall/winter surge in other Northern Hemisphere countries. All 4 of these sublineages exhibit resistance to existing treatments and vaccines, and the XBB sublineage, in particular, threatens to render existing vaccines ineffective. In addition to the risk of global spread of a vaccine-resistant vaccine, the decline in testing volume worldwide and barriers to including at-home test results in SARS-CoV-2 reporting systems could make surveillance problematic. And the general absence of COVID-19 protective measures (eg, physical distancing, mask use) could facilitate community transmission. Additionally, governments seem to be unwilling to commit additional funding to COVID-19 responses, including research on future vaccines and therapeutics, as evidenced in the US government’s struggle to secure funding for Project COVID Shield, the follow-on to Operation Warp Speed to develop advanced SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The world is simply in a much different place than it was in 2020 and 2021, which elevates the threat from these emerging sublineages.

As opposed to more radical antigenic “shifts”—like those observed with the emergence of the Delta variant or the original Omicron variant—the new sublineages of the Omicron variant are exhibiting more subtle antigenic “drift.” This is similar to the evolution observed in annual seasonal influenza epidemics, although on a much shorter timeline. New sublineages appear to be acquiring many of the same mutations, in various combinations, which signals that they may be converging on a common set of traits. Despite the recent pattern, however, it is still possible that the virus could take a more substantial shift, which could result in the emergence of a new major variant with much different characteristics.


FALL/WINTER SURGE POTENTIAL Experts are keeping an eye on whether the United States will experience a surge in SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths during the fall and winter seasons, a potential that looks increasingly likely. Several factors point to a forthcoming wave: the number of new cases is rising in Europe, and the US historically has followed that region’s trend; several emerging SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages appear to be more capable of evading immune system protection and therapies, as discussed above; individual immunity—from vaccination or prior infection—continues to wane, primary vaccinations have stalled, and booster uptake is slow; and policy and behavioral changes have limited the positive impact of previously implemented mitigation measures, such as mask use and physical distancing.

Fifteen countries in Europe are reporting increasing cases. France is experiencing its eighth wave of COVID-19 and hospitals in the UK report resource constraints amid a new wave. New subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 that are evolutionary descendants of BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 have emerged and are being tracked by scientists. It is still unknown whether one or more of these new strains will outcompete others and drive a fall or winter surge, but scientists are worried that these new sublineages may be able to evade current monoclonal antibody treatments and natural or vaccine-induced immunity.

Many experts stress that waning immunity could be one of the strongest predictors of a fall/winter surge in COVID-19 cases, especially if there is low uptake of new bivalent booster doses authorized in early September. In July, people aged 50 and older who had a primary series of vaccination and only one booster dose had 2 times the risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with individuals in the same age group who had a primary vaccination series and two booster doses targeting the original wild-type virus, showing the impact of continuous boosters. The new bivalent boosters targeting the original virus and the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 sublineages are expected to hold up similarly well and could help protect individuals from experiencing the most severe impacts of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, however, only 7.6 million people have received an updated booster, according to the US CDC, and polling data from the Kaiser Family Foundation support increased efforts to improve messaging surrounding the new vaccines, including better communication about who is eligible to receive the shots.

Policy and behavioral shifts indicate that the US is eager to reach a post-pandemic state of normalcy even though 400-500 people are dying of COVID-19 daily. Most emergency protections established at the onset of the pandemic have been lifted, and government funds for vaccines, treatments, and tests are quickly dwindling. Many experts have cautioned against dropping COVID-19 mitigation efforts too soon.

Additionally, experts are nervous about the impact of any surge in cases on already stressed healthcare and hospital systems. Increases in demand for care—from COVID-19, influenza, or other illnesses—will challenge hospitals that are overloaded and currently experiencing a limited availability of healthcare workers, many of whom are burnt out, having been driven to the point of exhaustion. Public health preparedness and response strategies will need to reckon with these barriers sooner rather than later, as there is evidence COVID-19 cases are set to rise in the US. Data from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority show that the amount of SARS-CoV-2 in the state’s wastewater is increasing, as are numbers of new COVID-19 cases in several states.

BIVALENT BOOSTER UPTAKE If 80% of eligible individuals aged 5 and older in the US receive an updated bivalent booster dose by the end of 2022, an estimated 90,000 COVID-19 deaths could be prevented and billions of dollars in health care costs could be saved, according to an updated analysis from the Commonwealth Fund. However, if booster vaccinations continue at their current pace, the nation could experience more than 1,000 deaths per day due to COVID-19 this winter, according to the report, which models several scenarios. Currently, between 400-500 people die each day due to the disease. Undoubtedly, vaccination has helped mitigate the burden of COVID-19, likely preventing millions of deaths and hospitalizations since vaccines became available in late 2020. However, vaccine uptake has stalled in the US, with 68% (225 million) of the total population having received a primary series and 49% (110 million) of those receiving a first booster dose. Around 37% (24 million) of eligible people aged 50 years and older have received a second booster dose, and only 7.6 million people have received an updated booster.

The White House and many public health officials are encouraging eligible individuals to receive SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and boosters, as well as influenza vaccinations, early this fall. After a relatively mild flu season last year, health officials are warning that a severe flu season in Australia could portend a similarly severe season in the US. According to a survey from the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases (NFID), only about half of US adult respondents plan to get a flu vaccine this season, and only one-third said they feel safe getting vaccinations against flu and COVID-19 simultaneously.

Notably, messaging around the COVID-19 vaccination campaign appears to be lacking, with guideline complexity possibly playing a role in confusion regarding eligibility. A recent poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) found awareness of the new boosters is relatively modest, with only about half of adult respondents saying they had heard “a lot” (17%) or “some” (33%) about the new boosters, and 40% of fully vaccinated respondents said they were not sure whether the updated booster is recommended for them. Only about one-third of adults say they have already gotten a new booster or intend to do so “as soon as possible,” while two-thirds said they plan to “wait and see,” would get a booster only if required, would “definitely not” get a booster, or are not eligible. In a separate analysis, KFF notes that elevated COVID-19 death rates among older adults compared to younger adults through the summer was due in part to relatively lower booster uptake, compared with primary vaccination, and waning immunity. Another poll, the Forbes Health-Ipsos Monthly Health Tracker, shows 63% of adult respondents familiar with the new booster vaccine are “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to get the shot, with only 28% saying they do not plan to get boosted. As the nation heads into the colder months, vaccinations and boosters remain the best method for mitigating a potential COVID-19 surge this winter.

DISRUPTIONS FOR PEOPLE WITH DISABILITIES For many people in the US who have a disability, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the inequities and disparities they already faced in accessing healthcare. According to a recently published study in Health Affairs, adult Americans with disabilities experienced significant disparities in delayed and unmet need for medical care during the first year of the pandemic. The study shows that adults with a disability were much more likely than those without disabilities to report delaying medical care, not getting the medical care they needed for non-COVID-19-related issues, and not getting needed medical care at home from a nurse or other health professional because of the pandemic. These disruptions, as well as elevated rates of comorbidities that people with disabilities may experience, could have increased their risk for severe illness or death from COVID-19.

Several factors contributed to adults with disabilities delaying care during the beginning of the pandemic, including lack of access to technology and internet, financial insecurity, reduced availability of public transportation, or inaccessible COVID-19 risk communication formats. For many adults with disabilities who depend on home- and community-based services, pandemic-related disruptions to and lack of COVID-19 relief support for these programs was a significant barrier. The pandemic has exposed health inequities and disparities that people with disabilities—especially those who experience multiple and intersecting forms of marginalization and discrimination—have faced for a long time.

Despite these notable barriers, several inclusive practices and technologies emerged as the US population tried to adapt to pandemic-related disruptions. When schools initially shifted to virtual learning modalities, some teachers implemented creative solutions to support students with disabilities. At a high school in Indiana, teachers provided supportive technologies for students with visual impairments and leveraged the intuitive accessibility of iPads and digital books. Several broad measures implemented during the onset of the pandemic, such as pivoting to remote or virtual work and learning, providing hazard pay for frontline workers, less punitive action against people who needed to cancel tickets or miss work to stay at home due to an illness, holding online events with closed captions and American Sign Language interpretation, and intentional shopping hours for immunocompromised people, allowed people with disabilities and others to adapt to pandemic-related disruptions.

As many in the US move on from the pandemic, people with disabilities are anxious about being excluded and left behind. This is especially concerning because COVID-19 has increased the number of people with disabilities in the US, as discussed below, thereby necessitating broad policy changes that center disability and help ameliorate individuals’ lived experiences.

LONG COVID/PASC Most US adults experiencing post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), more commonly known as long COVID, have symptoms that interfere with day-to-day activities, according to new data from the US CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. As of September 26, 14.2% of the more than 50,000 survey respondents said they had experienced long COVID—which is characterized by a host of symptoms including shortness of breath, fatigue, and cognitive difficulties—at some point during the pandemic. Of those with long COVID, 81% said they had some limitations in their daily activities compared to their activities prior to infection. Notably, 1 in 4 adults with long COVID reported significant limitations, with the proportion jumping to nearly 40% of Black or Hispanic/Latino respondents, as well as those already living with disability. The data are limited to adults and do not provide information on whether respondents are vaccinated or the severity of their SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nearly 24 million adults in the US are estimated to currently have long COVID, and researchers are working to define the condition, describe underlying causes, and search for effective treatments. Long COVID is, and likely will remain, a significant cause of disability in the US.

https://covid19.who.int/
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2483

Post by ti-amie »

This paragraph stood out for me.
BIVALENT BOOSTER UPTAKE If 80% of eligible individuals aged 5 and older in the US receive an updated bivalent booster dose by the end of 2022, an estimated 90,000 COVID-19 deaths could be prevented and billions of dollars in health care costs could be saved, according to an updated analysis from the Commonwealth Fund. However, if booster vaccinations continue at their current pace, the nation could experience more than 1,000 deaths per day due to COVID-19 this winter, according to the report, which models several scenarios. Currently, between 400-500 people die each day due to the disease. Undoubtedly, vaccination has helped mitigate the burden of COVID-19, likely preventing millions of deaths and hospitalizations since vaccines became available in late 2020. However, vaccine uptake has stalled in the US, with 68% (225 million) of the total population having received a primary series and 49% (110 million) of those receiving a first booster dose. Around 37% (24 million) of eligible people aged 50 years and older have received a second booster dose, and only 7.6 million people have received an updated booster.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by ponchi101 »

Sister in Law and Niece in Law came down with it, in Vennieland. Mild symptoms, nothing to worry about. But this thing is still all around.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by dryrunguy »

The notion that both vaccines and existing therapeutics may be powerless and useless against emerging COVID mutations is alarming. And we've only scratched the surface regarding long-term or potentially permanent disability associated with COVID infection.
Last edited by dryrunguy on Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by ponchi101 »

Well, I said it in 2019, in TAT1.0. This thing will defeat us, because it is here to stay.
And the concept of permanent disability is a very 1st World Concept; here in the 3rd World, we will not see any sort of compensation or assistance for the simplest of reasons: we can't afford it.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by dryrunguy »

Here's the latest Situation Report. The section on Long and Medium COVID is interesting as I've been confused as to what constitutes a long but somewhat normal recovery from infection compared to what we know as long COVID. The section on Therapeutics is frightening. The section on US Public Health Measures is downright infuriating.

And for our Canadian friends, Canada got a mention in this--and it's a good one.

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 619.8 million cumulative cases and 6.54 million deaths worldwide as of October 12. Global weekly incidence remained relatively steady at slightly more than 3 million cases for the fifth consecutive week, decreasing 6% compared to the previous week. Weekly incidence in Europe increased for the fourth consecutive week, up 5% over the previous week. All other regions reported decreasing trends. Global weekly mortality continued to decrease for the eighth consecutive week, although it appears to be leveling off, down 5% from the previous week.*
*The WHO dashboard notes that data from the Africa Region are incomplete.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC is reporting 96.6 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1.06 million deaths. Daily incidence continues to decline, down to 39,893 new cases per day, the lowest average since mid-April. Average daily mortality is down from a recent high of 505 deaths per day on August 12 to 338 on October 11, but the steadily decreasing trend appears to be leveling off.**
**Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations continue to exhibit downward trends, with decreases of 2.8% and 5.2%, respectively, over the past week. Both trends peaked around the end of July, approximately 1 week after the peak in daily incidence.

The BA.5 sublineage continues to be the dominant strain in the US, accounting for 79.2% of sequenced specimens; however, its estimated prevalence has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Several other Omicron sublineages continue to exhibit increasing trends. Notably, the BA.4.6 sublineage is up to 13.6%, BF.7 is up to 4.6%, and BA.2.75 is up to 1.8%. The increasing trends suggest that these subvariants may have some growth advantage over BA.5.

UPDATED BOOSTERS FOR CHILDREN US health regulators on October 12 authorized the updated SARS-CoV-2 bivalent vaccine boosters for children as young as 5 years old. Specifically, the booster from Pfizer-BioNTech is now available for children aged 5-11 and the shot from Moderna is authorized for children and adolescents aged 6-17. The booster shots—which target the original virus and the currently predominant Omicron BA.5 and BA.4 sublineages—are available to anyone age 5 or older who completed their 2-dose primary series at least 2 months prior. US CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky signed off on the updated bivalent COVID boosters for children shortly after the US FDA issued its authorization. The new formulations will help bolster antibodies that have waned since prior vaccination or infection while targeting newer variants that are more transmissible and immune evasive, particularly important as children are back to in-person schooling and as the US heads into a busy holiday season.

Experts hope the new booster formulation will renew interest in getting children vaccinated before an expected fall and winter surge in cases. As of September 28, only 15.2% of children aged 5-12 years had received a first booster dose, according to CDC data. According to US regulators, there are no safety concerns for the bivalent vaccines, and they stress that vaccination is one of the best ways to keep children healthy and in school. Currently, no bivalent vaccines are approved for children under 5; however, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech are expected to have data available later this year. Vaccination continues to be the best way to protect against severe disease and hospitalization, and all eligible individuals are recommended to receive a bivalent booster dose as soon as possible.

LONG & 'MEDIUM' COVID Increasing evidence shows that a significant proportion of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 do not fully recover from acute infection even months later, experiencing a host of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), more commonly known as long COVID. Research to better understand the condition will help inform the development of care, treatment, and social support systems for people experiencing the condition. A new modeling study, published online this week in JAMA and based on information from a database of more than 1.2 million COVID-19 patients in 22 countries, estimates that 6.2% of people had long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The model estimates the proportion of those who had at least 1 of 3 self-reported long COVID symptom clusters: persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings (3.2%), cognitive problems (2.2%), or ongoing respiratory problems (3.7%). Estimated symptom duration for hospitalized COVID-19 patients was 9 months, and 4 months for those who were not hospitalized. Even after one year, 15.1% of those with long COVID continued to experience symptoms.

Another study, published in Nature Communications and performed in Scotland, utilized a matched pair design to evaluate long COVID outcomes in people with and without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis. The cohort of more than 33,000 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and nearly 63,000 individuals who had not been infected were evaluated at several time points during the study, including 6, 12, and 18 months. Among those who had symptomatic infection, 6% reported they had not recovered at all, and 42% said they had only partially recovered. No recovery was associated with hospitalization, age, female sex, deprivation, respiratory disease, depression, and multimorbidity. While asymptomatic infection was not associated with adverse outcomes, previous symptomatic infection was associated with poorer quality of life and persistent symptoms—including breathlessness, palpitations, chest pain, and confusion—that impact daily life. Vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of 7 of the 26 symptoms listed in the questionnaire. Further research is ongoing through the COVID in Scotland Study.

Many studies are focusing on the implications of long COVID, but concerns are being raised over “medium COVID”: the middle phase of recovery that stretches to about 12 weeks after infection. Lumping lasting symptoms into the long COVID category and varying definitions of post-COVID conditions have led to little clarity on what classifies as medium COVID. Notably, a few studies indicate that the most severe post-COVID complications may arise in this middle phase of recovery, rather than many months after infection or in the midst of active, symptomatic infection. While time-limited, medium COVID can still cause months of distress and life-altering symptoms. A Swedish study suggests that the risk of developing pulmonary embolism was 32 times higher in the first month after testing positive, twice as likely at 60 days, and indistinguishable from baseline by 3-4 months after infection. Similar risks and trends were found for heart attack and stroke. The findings are supported by similar data from a UK study published over the summer, in which researchers found that new-onset cardiovascular disease was increased early after COVID-19—primarily due to pulmonary embolism, atrial arrhythmias, and venous thrombosis—and new-onset diabetes mellitus incidence remained elevated for at least 12 weeks following COVID-19 before declining. All of these studies have incredible public health implications and show that even if the emergency phase of the pandemic is winding down in many regions, its long-lasting impacts are only beginning to be understood.

THERAPEUTICS Scientists expect numerous countries will experience sizable COVID-19 surges from this month through January, driven by various SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages that will likely be the most transmissible and immune evasive yet. Several nations in Europe—including Germany, France, and Italy—are in the early stages of another wave, and the US typically follows this trend by about 4-6 weeks. Additionally, the new, highly immune-evasive variant XBB—a combination of two different Omicron subvariants—is driving a surge of cases in Singapore. Researchers are concerned over the new strains’ abilities to dodge vaccine-induced or natural immunity, as well as other authorized treatments.

There is evidence that Evusheld, a monoclonal antibody treatment used to bolster protection among immunocompromised individuals, may not be effective against the BA.4.6 Omicron sublineage, which now accounts for about 14% of cases in the US. If BA.4.6 can evade Evusheld, bebtelovimab could be the only monoclonal antibody treatment available to treat circulating strains of the virus. Additionally, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics released preliminary data last week showing their antiviral molnupiravir (Lagevrio) failed to reduce hospitalizations or deaths compared to placebo among multiply-vaccinated adults mostly under age 65 who were at higher risk of severe disease. The therapy did reduce the time to recovery by 6 days, and use of the drug was associated with earlier recovery across a variety of other symptom measures.

Another antiviral, Paxlovid, is being underused among patients at highest risk of severe disease in the US, experts warn. Some physicians might be reluctant to prescribe the drug due to its known interactions with several types of medications, including some used for cardiovascular disease. Notably, however, several studies show the therapy can reduce hospitalization, death, and time to recovery among older adults and those with at least one high-risk comorbidity, even those who are vaccinated. The US NIH released results from a small study last week showing that a return of COVID-19 symptoms and/or a positive test after completing an initial 5-day course of Paxlovid—commonly called COVID-19 rebound—is likely not caused by impaired immune responses. Instead, the rebound in symptoms could be partially driven by robust cellular immune responses to residual viral RNA in the respiratory tract. Infectious virus was detected in only 1 of 8 rebound participants. The study authors note that larger studies are needed to more fully understand the clinical significance and epidemiological consequences of COVID-19 rebound, but added that the findings do not support the hypothesis that a 5-day course of Paxlovid is too short for the body to mount a robust immune response. Nevertheless, Pfizer, which makes the treatment, plans to study a repeat 5-day course of Paxlovid among people who experience rebound. The US FDA requested such a clinical trial in August, ordering Pfizer to complete such a test by September 30, 2023.

US PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES The US government, states, and localities implemented various types of public health measures—including mask use requirements, physical distancing recommendations, vaccination mandates, and quarantine rules—during the COVID-19 pandemic to help mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and protect communities. The results of a new survey, published October 10 in JAMA Network Open, show that nearly 42% of the 1,733 adult respondents reported misrepresenting and/or nonadherence to at least 1 of 9 public health measures. The survey—conducted by researchers from Middlesex Community College in Connecticut and the University of Utah between December 8-23, 2021—showed that 24.3% of respondents told someone they were with or about to be with that they were taking more COVID-19 precautions than they were; 22.5% disobeyed quarantine rules; 21.5% avoided testing when they thought they might be infected; and 20.4% did not divulge that they had a suspected or confirmed infection when entering a doctor's office.

The most common reasons for the diversions were wanting life to feel normal or desiring to exercise personal freedoms, although some people said they felt the pandemic was a hoax or not serious, were following the advice of a celebrity or other public figure, or did not want to miss work. Certain public health measures can be burdensome and highly disruptive, but they are effective, the researchers noted, and nonadherence or dishonesty can have significant consequences, including prolonging the pandemic by leading to more infections, hospitalizations, or deaths. Notably, misrepresentation and nonadherence was more common among those with a greater distrust for science, although the researchers found no association between misrepresentation/nonadherence and political belief, political party affiliation, or religion. Understanding the public’s concerns regarding public health measures could help improve willingness to follow them in the future.

WORSENING INEQUALITY Oxfam and Development Finance International (DFI) published a research report on October 11 that ranks countries on their commitment to reducing inequality between 2020-2022. The report, titled “The Commitment to Reducing Inequality Index 2022,” reviews the spending, tax, and labor policies of 161 governments and finds that both high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) pursued policies that worsen inequality since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the report, 70% of LMICs made cuts to their education budgets, 50% of LMICs cut their health budgets, and nearly 50% of LMICs reduced social protection program spending. In 2021, lower-income countries reportedly spent 27.5% of their budgets to repay debts, about four times the amount those countries spent on health. Additionally, nearly 90% of assessed countries froze tax rates for the rich while poverty levels increased, and many countries failed to raise minimum wages.

The report highlights Norway and Germany as top performers in actions taken to reduce inequality. Other well-performing nations include Australia, Belgium, and Canada. However, the report claims that HICs played a role in exacerbating inequality in LMICs by overseeing lender repayment demands despite the economic hardships imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Oxfam accused the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of worsening inequality by demanding new austerity measures to reduce budget deficits. One of the important lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic is that health inequality leaves the door open for new and more dangerous viral variants to develop and has the potential to mask the emergence of novel pathogens with pandemic potential. The world must address rapidly deteriorating equality levels to help prepare for and prevent the next pandemic.

SARS-COV-2 ORIGIN A panel of experts examining the origins of SARS-CoV-2—many of whom were originally convened as part of a task force for The Lancet COVID-19 Commission—this week reported their findings in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Like the Commission’s report, the PNAS analysis stresses the need to apply a One Health lens to help decrease the risk of disease spillover events and to make improvements in the safety of laboratory and field research. While the Commission’s report gave equal weight to theories supporting the virus naturally spilling over to humans and accidentally being leaked from a lab, the PNAS report concludes that increasing scientific evidence is most consistent with the theory that the COVID-19 pandemic began due to zoonosis from wildlife to humans via the wildlife trade or farming. To reach that conclusion, the researchers conducted a literature review, interviewed other experts, and examined major RNA virus outbreaks since 1967 to identify common features as well as opportunities to prevent novel disease emergence. Though the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been conclusively determined—and may never be—the authors of the PNAS paper say it is time to look beyond trying to answer that question and use lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic to improve upon future prevention and preparedness.

BIOSAFETY The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred plans to build more than 40 high-level biosafety laboratories in several nations, prompting concerns from researchers about how these new facilities—which many agree are needed—will obtain sustainable funding to handle dangerous pathogens safely and securely. India, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Philippines, Russia, and the United States plan to establish high-containment facilities. While some researchers question the need for so many new labs and their high operating costs, others maintain that new biosafety centers could lead to improved safety practices, allowing scientists to work more safely than they could without them.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by ti-amie »

Me after reading the section on US Public Health Measures.

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One thing that OXFAM has never understood about the IMF demands to reduce budget deficits.
3rd world economies do not work like the USA's or the EU's. When one of our countries reach a certain debt/GDP ratio, our economies implode. It is not like the USA, which can have a 2:1 Debt/GDP ratio and nothing happens. In S. America, our currencies immediately devalue and funds quickly find their way to offshore accounts, if our debt reaches a certain level. Greece imploded with just a 1:1 debt/GDP ratio.
And WE DON'T HAVE THE FUNDING to implement social networks, or pass laws to support health programs, because, again, if we run a deficit, our currencies melt. Sure, Chile had the money to buy F16 fighters a few years ago, and because Argentina has defaulted 9 times on previous debt, the premiums charged by the financial markets of their NEW debt are exorbitant and unpayable, but that is why we are a mess.
And I have yet to see any single country, or common market (MERCOSUR, for example) talking to the pharma giants to set up a vaccine manufacturing facility in the continent. Easier to rely on donations.
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Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

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Post by dryrunguy »

ponchi101 wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:30 pm One thing that OXFAM has never understood about the IMF demands to reduce budget deficits.
3rd world economies do not work like the USA's or the EU's. When one of our countries reach a certain debt/GDP ratio, our economies implode. It is not like the USA, which can have a 2:1 Debt/GDP ratio and nothing happens. In S. America, our currencies immediately devalue and funds quickly find their way to offshore accounts, if our debt reaches a certain level. Greece imploded with just a 1:1 debt/GDP ratio.
And WE DON'T HAVE THE FUNDING to implement social networks, or pass laws to support health programs, because, again, if we run a deficit, our currencies melt. Sure, Chile had the money to buy F16 fighters a few years ago, and because Argentina has defaulted 9 times on previous debt, the premiums charged by the financial markets of their NEW debt are exorbitant and unpayable, but that is why we are a mess.
And I have yet to see any single country, or common market (MERCOSUR, for example) talking to the pharma giants to set up a vaccine manufacturing facility in the continent. Easier to rely on donations.
Thank you, ponchi, for reminding me that what I read these things for are not necessarily what other people read them for.

There is, I assume, also a point to be made here regarding to what other countries South American countries are indebted.
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