Covid-19 Updates & Info

All the other crazy stuff we talk about. Politics, Science, News, the Kitchen, other hobbies.
User avatar
ti-amie United States of America
Posts: 22983
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Location: The Boogie Down, NY
Has thanked: 5302 times
Been thanked: 3284 times

Honorary_medal

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2566

Post by ti-amie »

mmalc
@mmalc@mastodon.social
“China's public health officials say that possibly 800 million people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months. And several models predict that a half million people could die, possibly more.”

“… about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.”

#COVID
#China
#ZeroCovid
#SupplyChain

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/
“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
User avatar
ponchi101 Venezuela
Site Admin
Posts: 14718
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:40 pm
Location: New Macondo
Has thanked: 3855 times
Been thanked: 5561 times
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2567

Post by ponchi101 »

The USA has seen 1 million dead. Out of 360MM people (rough population count).
China has 1,4 Billion. How does the math for ONLY 500,000 work out? The USA has better facilities, and has been using a better vaccine.
Assume mortality rates of 1%, and if the infected population is expected to be 800 MM, the death rate would be 8 million.
Somebody help me here.
Ego figere omnia et scio supellectilem
User avatar
Deuce Canada
Posts: 4531
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:52 am
Location: An unparallel universe
Has thanked: 336 times
Been thanked: 977 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2568

Post by Deuce »

If anywhere near that many people become infected with COVID-19 in China, that rate of infection risks spreading to other countries with travel to and from China.

But it's ok, because the politicians say that the pandemic is over. :roll:
R.I.P. Amal...

“The opposite of courage is not cowardice - it’s conformity. Even a dead fish can go with the flow.”- Jim Hightower
User avatar
ti-amie United States of America
Posts: 22983
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Location: The Boogie Down, NY
Has thanked: 5302 times
Been thanked: 3284 times

Honorary_medal

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2569

Post by ti-amie »

Deuce wrote: Mon Dec 19, 2022 10:50 pm If anywhere near that many people become infected with COVID-19 in China, that rate of infection risks spreading to other countries with travel to and from China.

But it's ok, because the politicians say that the pandemic is over. :roll:
“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
User avatar
Suliso Latvia
Posts: 4404
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 2:30 pm
Location: Basel, Switzerland
Has thanked: 273 times
Been thanked: 1453 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2570

Post by Suliso »

We're all rightly aghast at events in China, BUT it's not so obvious what was a better way out for their government. Lockdowns forever were not sustainable either... You might say buying Western vaccines, but that would be so shameful...
User avatar
ponchi101 Venezuela
Site Admin
Posts: 14718
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:40 pm
Location: New Macondo
Has thanked: 3855 times
Been thanked: 5561 times
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2571

Post by ponchi101 »

Suliso wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:15 am We're all rightly aghast at events in China, BUT it's not so obvious what was a better way out for their government. Lockdowns forever were not sustainable either... You might say buying Western vaccines, but that would be so shameful...
Who is saying BUYING? Do what the Chinese government has always done: copy them.
It is not as if the Chinese ever have given half a (expletive) about copyrights or anything like that. And, in this case, they may have a point.
Ego figere omnia et scio supellectilem
User avatar
MJ2004
Posts: 417
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:18 pm
Location: Boston
Has thanked: 116 times
Been thanked: 300 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2572

Post by MJ2004 »

If you look at it as a governmental experiment, China has successfully tested how far they can push the citizens before revolts started. Now time to step back.
User avatar
Suliso Latvia
Posts: 4404
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 2:30 pm
Location: Basel, Switzerland
Has thanked: 273 times
Been thanked: 1453 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2573

Post by Suliso »

ponchi101 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:38 pm Who is saying BUYING? Do what the Chinese government has always done: copy them.
It is not as if the Chinese ever have given half a (expletive) about copyrights or anything like that. And, in this case, they may have a point.
If just copying was so easy to do they would have copied top of the line microchips ages ago. I suspect they simply lack technical know how in this very new mRNA field.
User avatar
ti-amie United States of America
Posts: 22983
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:44 pm
Location: The Boogie Down, NY
Has thanked: 5302 times
Been thanked: 3284 times

Honorary_medal

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2574

Post by ti-amie »

MJ2004 wrote: Tue Dec 20, 2022 3:17 pm If you look at it as a governmental experiment, China has successfully tested how far they can push the citizens before revolts started. Now time to step back.
“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
User avatar
dryrunguy
Posts: 1532
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:31 am
Has thanked: 693 times
Been thanked: 1155 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2575

Post by dryrunguy »

Here's the latest Situation Report from Johns Hopkins.

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 650 million cumulative cases and 6.65 million deaths worldwide as of December 20. Global weekly incidence remained relatively stable last week, increasing 4.8% compared to an increase of 12% the previous week. A total of 3.8 million cases were confirmed the week of December 12. Weekly incidence fell over the previous week in South-East Asia (-36%), Africa (-29%), Eastern Mediterranean (-26%), Europe (-9%). Weekly incidence increased in the Americas (+18%) and Western Pacific (+8%) regions. Global weekly mortality remained relatively stable compared with the previous week, down 5%.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC is reporting 99.7 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 1.08 million deaths. Incidence for the week ending December 14 remained relatively stable over the previous week, falling to 455,466 cases from 469,240 cases for the week ending December 7. Weekly mortality fell for the week ending December 14, with 2,703 reported deaths, compared to 3,115 deaths the week ending December 7.

Both new hospital admissions and current hospitalizations began falling last week, both down 10% over the previous week.*
*Due to a change in COVID-19 hospital data reporting guidance, the CDC urges caution in interpreting data immediately reported after December 15, 2022, when the transition to the CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) began. Additional information on the transition can be found here.

The Omicron sublineages BQ.1.1 (38%) and BQ.1 (31%) together represent the most dominant subvariants of sequenced specimens in the US. BA.5 (10%) accounts for a dwindling proportion of cases, and a growing proportion of cases are due to XBB (7.2%). A host of other Omicron sublineages—including BF.7, BN.1, BA.5.2.6, BA.4.6, BF.11, BA.2, BA.2.75, BA.2.75.2, and others—make up the remainder of cases.

US WINTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN The Biden administration last week announced a COVID-19 Winter Preparedness Plan in an attempt to stay ahead of what many experts believe will be a continued increase in COVID-19 cases this season. The plan involves reopening COVIDTests.gov, through which US residents can order up to 4 tests per household this winter; making more free tests available at community and rural health clinics, schools, food banks, and other convenient locations; offering resources and assistance to increase vaccine uptake, including pop-up and mobile vaccination sites; pre-positioning supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile to help prepare health facilities; monitoring emerging variants and their susceptibility to existing treatments and vaccines; and expanding efforts to increase vaccination rates in long-term care facilities and nursing homes.

White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha stressed that the nation is facing other respiratory viruses, including RSV and one of the worst and earliest influenza seasons, which, along with COVID-19, are stressing hospital capacity. Dr. Jha encouraged people to receive an updated bivalent vaccine booster if they are eligible and have not done so already. US CDC data show that while about 69% of the US population has completed the primary 2-dose vaccine series, only about 14% of people aged 5 and older have received the updated booster.

According to recent polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation, many people are unsure about the benefit of the updated COVID-19 vaccine. But 2 new studies published last week in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) show the updated shots provide substantial protection against illness and hospitalization, particularly among seniors and including among people who had received 2-4 doses of the original monovalent vaccine. The studies used data from a period during predominance of the Omicron BA.5 subvariant, which the bivalent booster partially targets. Since then, the more immune-evasive Omicron sublineages of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have gained traction, and it is unclear how applicable the studies’ findings are to these new subvariants. Additionally, a recent analysis from the Commonwealth Fund shows earlier vaccines’ value. The report estimates that from December 2020 to November 2022, the US COVID-19 vaccination program prevented more than 18.5 million additional hospitalizations and 3.2 million additional deaths, as well as saved more than US$1 trillion in medical costs that would otherwise have been incurred. The analysis estimates there would have been nearly 120 million more COVID-19 infections without vaccination. The US FDA announced it will hold a meeting of its vaccines advisory board next month to discuss the future of COVID-19 vaccines, including whether people who have never received a shot should get the bivalent formulation as their first dose.

With other viruses that cause influenza-like illnesses or stomach flu circulating this season, experts agree taking individual actions can help reduce the risk of serious illness. Some of these actions include:
• Getting vaccinated against COVID-19 or getting the most recent COVID-19 booster*, as well as receiving a flu vaccine
• Wearing a high-quality mask while in crowded, indoor places
• Improving ventilation when possible, including opening doors and windows, running fans on HVAC systems, or installing high-quality air filters
• Practicing proper hand hygiene, including thorough hand washing or use of hand sanitizer when appropriate, especially when preparing or sharing food
• Staying home if showing any symptoms such as runny nose, cough, fevers, chills, nausea, body aches, or sore throat
• Testing for COVID-19 before and after traveling and before gathering indoors, particularly if older adults will be present
• Drinking plenty of water, especially while traveling or if consuming alcoholic beverages.
*The US FDA recently authorized and the CDC recommended bivalent boosters for children down to 6 months of age. Eligibility among this age group can be confusing, as it depends on what vaccine series—and how much of that series—has been received so far:
• Moderna: Children 6 months through 5 years who received the original, 2-dose Moderna vaccine are eligible to receive a single booster of the updated bivalent Moderna vaccine 2 months after completing the primary series.
• Pfizer:
• Children 6 months through 4 years who completed the 3-dose primary series are not eligible at this time.
• Children 6 months through 4 years who have not started the 3-dose primary series or who have not completed the series will receive the updated Pfizer vaccine as their third dose.

LONG COVID-RELATED MORTALITY Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), commonly known as long COVID, contributed to 3,544 deaths in the US from January 2020 through the end of June 2022, according to a recent report from the US CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The deaths were identified using data entered on death certificates in the National Vital Statistics System, a methodology that could lead to an undercount, the report’s authors and other experts cautioned. The majority of long COVID-related deaths occurred among non-Hispanic white and older individuals.

An estimated 1 in 4 people with COVID-19 experience long COVID, which includes a complex constellation of symptoms—such as breathing problems, heart issues, fatigue, and cognitive and neurological issues—that can last for several months or longer or appear months after acute infection and can affect virtually every organ system. There is no agreed upon definition for the condition, and no diagnostic code for the condition existed until October 2021. Though knowledge about long COVID has improved over the past several years, and the US government earlier this year launched the National Research Action Plan on Long COVID, people impacted by the condition and their clinicians are urging more federal efforts and funding to support research, care, and education on the condition. Some experts warn long COVID could critically impact the nation’s economy and productive capacity in the short and long terms.

LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES/NURSING HOMES As older adults, usually with underlying health conditions, nursing home and long-term care facility (LTCF) residents are at high risk of infection and death due to COVID-19, and the congregate nature of these facilities increases the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To examine the disproportionate impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on LTCF/nursing home residents, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted an analysis of US CDC and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) data. According to the report, released December 15, the average COVID-19 nursing home outbreak from June 2020 through December 2021 lasted 4 weeks and transmission of COVID-19 in the community surrounding a nursing home, known as community spread, had the strongest association with the duration of an outbreak. Additionally, the longest outbreaks were associated with nursing home facilities that had more than 100 beds, reported staff shortages, and were government-owned. Staff shortages and low staff morale were identified as critical challenges during interviews with officials from 6 nursing homes in 4 states, according to the report.

As of November 20, only 45% of nursing home residents and 22% of staff were up to date with their COVID-19 vaccines, according to recent analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation. In light of this, the LCTF/nursing home industry is calling for changes to vaccination practices for residents. In a recent letter to US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, industry groups outlined an “all-hands-on-deck” approach to vaccinating residents, including efforts to better educate residents and their families about COVID-19, influenza, and other vaccines; reaching out to hospitals to vaccinate patients before discharging them to their facilities; mobilizing the National Guard to administer vaccines at facilities when LTCF pharmacies cannot; and reaching out to state and local public health agencies to conduct on-site vaccine clinics when needed. Hesitancy remains the primary obstacle to getting more residents and staff up to date on their vaccinations, which means completing a COVID-19 vaccine primary series and receiving the most recent booster dose recommended.

GLOBAL EXCESS MORTALITY An estimated 14.83 million excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as a result of COVID-19 for 2020 and 2021, according to a new WHO study published last week in Nature. India, Russia, Indonesia, the US, Brazil, and Mexico suffered the most estimated deaths due to COVID-19 during the 2-year period. Overall, 4 of 5 excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 occurred in either Southeast Asia—led by India—Europe, and the Americas. By comparison, heart disease was the leading worldwide cause of death in 2019, resulting in nearly 9 million deaths. The researchers said they expect COVID-19 was among the leading causes of death in 2020 and the leading cause of death in 2021. Knowing exactly how many people have died in the pandemic—including deaths from COVID-19 as well as those indirectly related to the pandemic, such as deaths related to interruptions and disruptions to healthcare—will never be possible.

GLOBAL HEALTH EMERGENCY WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus last week said he is hopeful the COVID-19 global health emergency can end next year. The International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee for COVID-19 is expected to begin discussions in January outlining criteria for declaring an end to the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration, first announced on January 30, 2020. Even if the emergency ends, COVID-19 is not going away. During an end-of-the-year press conference, Dr. Tedros noted several challenges, including the growing health burden of post-COVID conditions including long COVID, ongoing vaccine inequity and low vaccine uptake in some areas, remaining gaps and weaknesses in variant surveillance, and rising case numbers in several countries, including China. After highlighting several upbeat developments—such as a declining rate of COVID-19 deaths and falling numbers of mpox and Ebola cases—he called for more investment in pandemic preparedness so the world can be ready for the next emerging health threat. Notably, other experts said COVID-19 remains an emergency, warning the pandemic could worsen over the coming months.

CHINA In a rapid and stark reversal from its “zero COVID” policy, China has largely dropped much of its carefully crafted systems of lockdowns and mass testing. The unpopular policy most recently led to widespread protests, rarely seen in China, before being relaxed. Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron subvariants in circulation, predictions of a massive surge in cases across the country are coming true. COVID-19 is spreading rapidly through the population of 1.4 billion, many of whom are inadequately vaccinated and have little to no natural immunity.

On December 19, the Chinese government reported 2 COVID-related deaths, the first in weeks, but many within the country, as well as outside experts, say the low counts are implausible and ignore the high level of loss and grief the latest wave is causing. One of Beijing’s designated crematoria for COVID-19 patients has received a jump in requests for services, and authorities are rushing to increase the number of intensive care beds and healthcare workers, as well as increase dwindling medication supplies, signs of the human toll of abruptly loosening restrictions. Some provincial governments have suggested that people with mild COVID-19 illness continue to go to work, particularly healthcare and food delivery workers. The surge is also coming ahead of Lunar New Year in January, when millions are expected to travel to be with relatives for the holiday. Multiple models predict a winter wave of COVID-19 infections could kill up to 1 million people over the next several months.

China’s strategy has always been deeply political: President Xi Jinping staked the reputation of the Chinese Communist Party on the ability to control COVID-19 better than Western countries. But with the current COVID-19 situation appearing to spiral rapidly, President Xi is now in the position of deciding whether to accept foreign aid and from whom. European and US officials are in contact with Chinese counterparts, but public statements are being carefully worded to make clear the onus is on China to accept any offers of assistance in obtaining vaccines, treatments, or other countermeasures. China’s state media appear to be positioning the current surge as a pre-planned strategy, an “exit wave,” and promised a return to “normalcy by Spring.” Nevertheless, there remain global concerns that China’s situation will have long-term economic and social impacts and increase the risk of a new variant emerging.

https://covid19.who.int/
User avatar
dryrunguy
Posts: 1532
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2020 6:31 am
Has thanked: 693 times
Been thanked: 1155 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2576

Post by dryrunguy »

In other news, I got the Moderna bivalent booster today. And for the first time EVER, I got the flu shot. Too many of my work colleagues have been sick as dogs from the various bugs floating about all over the U.S.

::

BTW, masks are no longer required at the medical campus where I get my vaccines. Either people simply don't care, or they've given up. And not one person working at the pharmacy where I get my vaccines was masked. Not one.

::

While I was waiting to get my jabs, I overheard a very frail elderly woman who had come in to get a booster. She refused to get an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna). She didn't say why. She wanted Novavax. They didn't have it. She left without getting a booster. I also overheard the pharmacy technician, basically, validate her and said, "A lot of people are choosing not to get boosters." Not untrue. But as a public health worker, why say that?
User avatar
ponchi101 Venezuela
Site Admin
Posts: 14718
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 4:40 pm
Location: New Macondo
Has thanked: 3855 times
Been thanked: 5561 times
Contact:

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2577

Post by ponchi101 »

The EXCESS DEATHS section of the report says it all: that 6.65 MM worldwide deaths figure is bull-(expletive). Be generous and only assign 50% directly to C19 (not other related issues). That doubles the figure automatically.
And, as it says: we will never know how many people have really died of it.
Make it a nice, round 16MM. That means that the mortality rate, over 3 years, is 0.2%.
Whether that is significant or not is very, very open to debate.
Ego figere omnia et scio supellectilem
User avatar
Deuce Canada
Posts: 4531
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 5:52 am
Location: An unparallel universe
Has thanked: 336 times
Been thanked: 977 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2578

Post by Deuce »

The COVID-19 death rate among the planet's entire population - or among a country's population - is one thing - and is irrelevant.
The death rate of the people who have contracted COVID-19 is what is relevant. Unfortunately, that is impossible to calculate - both because of governments lying about the number of cases and deaths, and because far from every case of COVID is documented.
R.I.P. Amal...

“The opposite of courage is not cowardice - it’s conformity. Even a dead fish can go with the flow.”- Jim Hightower
User avatar
MJ2004
Posts: 417
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:18 pm
Location: Boston
Has thanked: 116 times
Been thanked: 300 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2579

Post by MJ2004 »

China estimates 250mn people have caught Covid in 20 days
Figures presented at closed-door meeting are in stark contrast to low official case count

Chinese officials estimate about 250mn people, or 18 per cent of the population, were infected with Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December, as Beijing abruptly dismantled restrictions that had contained the disease for almost three years.

The estimates — including 37mn people, or 2.6 per cent of the population, who were infected on Tuesday alone — were revealed by Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in a Wednesday health briefing, said two people familiar with the matter.

Sun said the rate of Covid’s spread in the country was still rising and estimated that more than half of the population in Beijing and Sichuan were already infected, the people briefed on the meeting said.

The explosion in cases followed Beijing’s decision this month to abandon its zero-Covid policy, which kept the virus at bay through mass testing, mandatory quarantine and draconian lockdowns.

Sun’s figures, which were provided in a closed-door meeting, contrast with data put out by the National Health Commission, which reported 62,592 symptomatic Covid cases over the same period. Last week, China stopped publicly trying to tally the total number of infections after authorities curtailed Covid testing.

The lack of published official information has led Washington and the World Health Organization to push Beijing to be more transparent about case counts, disease severity, hospital admission figures and other health statistics that have been made widely available by other countries.

In China’s capital and other cities, the wave of Covid infections has overwhelmed hospitals with an influx of elderly, bedridden patients and left emergency rooms and intensive care units with few available beds.

Yet the country has proceeded with shedding the zero-Covid policy as the medical toll mounts. Hong Kong’s chief executive John Lee on Saturday announced that long-awaited quarantine-free travel between the city and mainland China would resume as early as mid-January.

“The central government has agreed to fully reopen the borders in a gradual and orderly manner,“ Lee told reporters after returning from a four-day trip to Beijing, where he met President Xi Jinping. “Families separated for nearly three years because of the pandemic can be reunited . . . [and] Hong Kong’s economy can be bolstered.”

Business chambers and industry leaders in the financial hub have for months called for a full border reopening as restrictions on movement hampered the territory’s economy, which is expected to suffer an annual contraction of 3.2 per cent this year.

The NHC’s official account of the Wednesday event provided little detail on what the country’s top health officials discussed.

But in the meeting, Ma Xiaowei, director of the NHC, demanded hospitals sort out overflowing emergency rooms and move patients into inpatient departments, said one of the people who participated in the event. He also urged midsized and large hospitals to take in more patients with severe symptoms and promised regulators would not hold them accountable for rising fatality rates.

Meanwhile, the estimate of 250mn cases raised further doubts about the accuracy of official Covid statistics and how authorities account for deaths from the disease.

The NHC reported just 4,103 new local cases on Saturday for the day prior, with no Covid-related deaths for a second consecutive day. Hong Kong, by contrast, reported 20,460 new local cases on Saturday for the previous 24 hours.

China has officially reported only eight deaths since December 1. Top health officials said this week that they had narrowed the definition of what constitutes a Covid death, in a move that reduced the public death tally.

However, crematoriums in China’s capital are struggling to handle a surge of corpses, and bodies were piling up at hospitals visited by the Financial Times in recent days.

Several models, including one partly funded by the Chinese CDC, have forecast that the country could suffer up to 1mn Covid deaths during its reopening.

The National Health Commission did not respond to a request for comment.

FT
Qianer Liu and Cheng Leng in Hong Kong, Sun Yu in Shanghai and Ryan McMorrow in Beijing 9 HOURS AGO
Additional reporting by Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong
User avatar
MJ2004
Posts: 417
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2020 3:18 pm
Location: Boston
Has thanked: 116 times
Been thanked: 300 times

Re: Covid-19 Updates & Info

#2580

Post by MJ2004 »

China’s botched Covid reopening
Rushed exit from hardline policy shatters myth of Beijing’s competence

China’s mismanaged exit from its “zero-Covid” policy is subjecting its people to widespread disruptions and health risks. It is also exploding a myth that Beijing’s leadership, packed with technocrats and able to exercise authoritarian decisiveness, is inherently superior to western democracies when dealing with crisis scenarios.

As Covid-19 sweeps through the country’s biggest cities, the lack of preparation for China’s opening from strict pandemic controls is becoming painfully clear. Residents of Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities reported that pharmacies had sold out of fever medicine and Covid tests, while blood banks are battling supply shortages.

Streets in Beijing remain empty and most businesses are closed, with unofficial estimates suggesting about 40 per cent of Beijing’s 22mn people have contracted the Omicron variant. In many other cities, people are sick or staying at home to avoid infections and schools are moving lessons online so that students and teachers can shelter from the wave of contagion.

The scenes of distress not only reflect poorly on President Xi Jinping, who has been widely hailed by state media as the “commander-in-chief of the people’s war against Covid”. They also raise questions about the capacity of China’s administration to make wise and timely decisions.

This is not an academic point. If the world’s emerging superpower — one that exploits a deep sense of historical injustice to fuel its rivalry with the west — is falling prey to the narrowing perspectives of concentrated power, then the risks that Beijing poses to global stability will grow.

With China so central to several of the world’s potential geopolitical flashpoints — on the Korean peninsula, across the Taiwan Strait, in the South China Sea, on its Himalayan border with India and in other arenas — the wider world has a legitimate interest in the quality of Chinese decision-making.

This is not purely a foreign policy concern. Some of the protesters who took to the streets in more than 20 Chinese cities last month to raise grievances about Beijing’s stifling “zero-Covid” regime chanted slogans calling for free speech, the rule of law, democracy and human rights.

Over the course of almost three years of dealing with the pandemic largely through urban lockdowns of varying intensities, China has had ample time to prepare itself for an exit strategy. Yet it has failed to ensure that its most vulnerable age cohort — the 267mn people above 60 — is adequately vaccinated against the virus. Some 32 per cent of this cohort are insufficiently protected, according to official figures.

Beijing also rejected consistent calls to supplement its homegrown vaccines by using foreign mRNA jabs manufactured by Pfizer, Moderna and other groups. This failure to admit highly effective foreign medicines reveals Beijing’s willingness to put national pride before the health and economic welfare of its population.

To be sure, muscular social controls did an impressive job of containing the virus’s spread in early 2020 after its initial outbreak in Wuhan, and China’s official Covid death toll of 5,235 is much lower than that in other large countries. But the current rushed and poorly co-ordinated transition from “zero-Covid” towards living with the virus is undermining China’s own claims to “put people first”.

Simply refusing to report a sharply rising death toll does not obscure a looming humanitarian crisis. With perhaps as many as 1bn people set to travel over the lunar new year holidays starting on January 21, the current wave of infections is only likely to swell.

- FT Editorial Board
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests