by New England Nitemare

ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 09, 2023 2:31 am If you only lose 1 of 4 you’ll be doing way better than I have in a long time!

I lost one, damn Minnesota!!!

by ptmcmahon Comparing week 1 and 2 scores may have been a good one to miss.

by ponchi101 FOR YOU!!!!

by ptmcmahon Actually with bye weeks coming up there will surely be lower scoring weeks to come. Although at least we still have 16 point games those weeks now!

by ptmcmahon

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:02 am I forgot to open this topic.
And we are off!!!!!!! ... to a great start. The Chiefs drop their opener to the Lions. Patrick Mahones is the MVP? Nope. Travis Kelce is the MVP. But they will never again give it to anybody that is not a QB.

I think the Jets game should have quieted any thought of Mahomes not being one of the best players in the league now? Looks like week one was just a bad week - lately a lot of good players seem to have bad week ones, I wonder if from the general trend of stars playing less pre-season.

by Omess Washington/Buffalo looked like very safe pick but both easily lost


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by ponchi101

ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:40 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 08, 2023 4:02 am I forgot to open this topic.
And we are off!!!!!!! ... to a great start. The Chiefs drop their opener to the Lions. Patrick Mahones is the MVP? Nope. Travis Kelce is the MVP. But they will never again give it to anybody that is not a QB.

I think the Jets game should have quieted any thought of Mahomes not being one of the best players in the league now? Looks like week one was just a bad week - lately a lot of good players seem to have bad week ones, I wonder if from the general trend of stars playing less pre-season.

Mahones is one of the best QB's. But his best receiver is Kelce, therefore my statement.
And Kelce is head and shoulders above other TE's. Mahones is the best QB but on any given day, Allen, Jackson, Burrow and a few others can match him.

by Fastbackss

Omess wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 4:50 pm Washington/Buffalo looked like very safe pick but both easily lost


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And Baltimore

by ptmcmahon

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 11:25 pm Mahones is one of the best QB's. But his best receiver is Kelce, therefore my statement.
And Kelce is head and shoulders above other TE's. Mahones is the best QB but on any given day, Allen, Jackson, Burrow and a few others can match him.

True...although being slightly the best QB is better than being far away the best tight end

Yesterday was a very usual Mahomes game - ten different receivers I think it was overall. Although again when Kelce was out for a few drives it was clear he was definitely not the same. Definitely a little more noticeable this year!

by ptmcmahon

Fastbackss wrote: ↑Mon Oct 09, 2023 12:12 am

Omess wrote: ↑Sun Oct 08, 2023 4:50 pm Washington/Buffalo looked like very safe pick but both easily lost


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And Baltimore

Yup, my 13-12-11-10 all lost this week. Although why I gave New England a 10 I have no idea,,,that one is on me

by ponchi101 It seems that N.E. is becoming, at best, one team to give a 4-6 range, if you believe they will win. It is not that they are losing, it is the scores.
Blanked by the Saints? Wow...

by New England Nitemare Ugh....the Pars have been beyond horrific. They are not even competitive. I gave them a 6. I don't think I will be picking them no time soon!! A tough week. I only got 5 right!!

by Fastbackss Gonna be more fun this week with San Fran and Philly losing.

by ptmcmahon We all had PJ Walker and Garrett Wilson knocking off the last two undefeated teams right?

by ponchi101 Sure did. At scores from 11 through 16. We really know our (expletive).

by Fastbackss Damn fat fingers, that is what I get for picking 4 and 14 in successive games.

I look forward to mentally adding 18 to my score and being amazingly frustrated with myself come week 17

by ptmcmahon Going to be some rough totals I think. Everyone but Ponchi had Buffalo and San Fran in their top 3 (a few of us with them in top 2)... and Ponchi had the Raiders as his 15.

by ponchi101 I saw the Minn/SF game, saw that SF was without too many weapons, decided it was too high. A good call.
Then, of course, my Raiders did me in
Scores below.

by ptmcmahon

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 4:01 pm I saw the Minn/SF game, saw that SF was without too many weapons, decided it was too high. A good call.
Then, of course, my Raiders did me in
Scores below.

Who were they missing other than Deebo? And he's only had one real good game this year anyway.

by New England Nitemare Ugh....this is has been one of hardest seasons to pick games. Most of these teams are not consistent,

by ponchi101

ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 5:09 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 4:01 pm I saw the Minn/SF game, saw that SF was without too many weapons, decided it was too high. A good call.
Then, of course, my Raiders did me in
Scores below.

Who were they missing other than Deebo? And he's only had one real good game this year anyway.

At the time I made the call, CMC was in doubt. Therefore I dropped the Niners to the 8th pick.

by ptmcmahon Oh gotcha. I thought he was playing for sure… missing him would have made that a much dicier pick!

by ptmcmahon Man, is winning every tennis contest not got enough for Omega? Let us at least have football

by Fastbackss Maybe I will just take rest of year off...

by ptmcmahon Remember how much the playoffs are worth (and losses lose you points.)

Last year I went from second in regular season to last overall by end of playoffs.

by Fastbackss You still have to be close enough to catch up lol

by ptmcmahon Which you definitely are.

Remember in playoffs we can lose points too. So some playoff weeks people got 150 points, some weeks people got as low a s -90. You can swing over 200 points in a single week in the playoffs

Last year I was a -40 in the playoffs while Patrick was +351.

by ponchi101 Which is the sole reason I am still playing, because I have been truly awful.
Two years ago I finished the regular season 1st, with a good 30 points margin. Ended up like 6th.

by ptmcmahon Still 8 weeks to go, lots of time to make a move. Not that it helped me last year anyway in playoffs

by ponchi101 My apologies for the lateness with these updates, but I have been super busy, But now I am home and I can update properly.
This week, go to the link to check your scores. No surprise, Omegadoom has retaken the lead, with Wolfy and Pt close by.

contests/NFL_Challenge.htm

by ptmcmahon Hah, that's what I get for actually picking the Packers for a change!

by Fastbackss Guess I should have weighted the Raiders higher

by ptmcmahon Coming off a shut out and a streak of 20 straight offense possessions without a TD (longest since 2019)... to that with mostly backups.

This league is crazy sometimes.

by New England Nitemare ugh....it's been a tough season predicting these damn games. I'm kinda surprised that Seattle won last night, but I didn't know Pete Carroll was 7-0 vs Philadelphia in his career, well....make that 8-0 now....sheesh!!!!

by ptmcmahon

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:43 pm Dear friends.
Sorry for the delays. I have moved from country, and well, been busy.
I was able to update the general file:
contests/NFL_Challenge.htm

And the summary is:
NFL_Challenge.jpg

Wolfy took the lead, and the top three players are by now some 90 points ahead of the pack. With just a few more weeks, this will be resolved most likely by those three, in the playoffs.

Looks to me like 8 of us within 90 points? With how many points playoffs can get you and negative points this is far from down to three people competing for it.

by ponchi101 They have ONE bad pick left and are still in contention. The rest of us have ZERO wrong picks left.
Ergo, my overstatement.

by ptmcmahon Still not sure what you mean? What is "one bad pick left"?

If you are talking about having a bad week... I think everyone except me (well and Fastbackss) can have a bad week and still be ok. Since I missed a week I can probably afford it less.

But I'd say everyone is still in it. I've mentioned at least twice but last year the playoffs had people swing hundreds of points. I went from second to last. I don't think this is even close to being over and it's certainly not down to three people to decide. The regular season in this contest is bascially like seeding for the playoffs and all of us are going to make it.

I don't even know which "three" you would pick that are going to decide who wins.

by ponchi101 Sorry. So used to talking about PICKS that I used that term. I meant, as you say, WEEK. Anybody outside the top three players has one more bad week, and is out. They have a little leeway.
You are right in the analysis, but Omega, Wolfy and you have proven to be reliable with your picks. So, I don't see you having one week with a super low score.
But, as you say, we will see. Somebody has to be pick the upset of the week during the play offs, and the three of you pick the standard. Then, it's a whole new game.

by ptmcmahon Well everyone but me also has more leeway because I already have a 0 If anyone has a 20 point week somehow it won't count - but it will for me.

It's only usually the last couple rounds of playoffs where you really can play "I have to pick upset to pass so and so" so the first couple weeks can still cause wild swings with so many games and points available. I wouldn't say anyone is even close to not being in it right now. Certainly no one is "out" with one bad week.

by Fastbackss Well that was kind of them

by ptmcmahon Definitely was too early to say it was down to three people who could win

by ponchi101 Now it is down to two

by ptmcmahon Not really... I'm going to drop my 0, and Omega is going to drop a 9 and we'll replace it with full week scores (in theory at least.) Wolfy is leading but will be dropping a 54 as of now so won't be gaining much.

Despite Omega not picking, not much changed in the regular season standings really Just gives him less room for error in last two weeks, and obviously he can't do it again!

So if you are talking JUST regular season only, it's still a tight three way race for first.

Plus - you're still ignoring that the playoffs can swing hundreds of points wildly.

Last year after the regular season the person in second place, who only finished six out of first, dropped all the way to ninth (ugh ) And the winner came all the way from fourth. And that was with the two #1 seeds making the Super Bowls. Imagine if there were more upsets!

This is still wide open and I'd say everyone is still in it.

by ponchi101 I believe you are just desperately trying to defuse my jinx
I need to make on big pick this weekend. Watch me pick one really surreal team (like, ARZ over PHL) and then have the Eagles laugh their way to victory.

by ptmcmahon Well as long as it's just a jinx attempt

by ponchi101

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 1:40 pm I believe you are just desperately trying to defuse my jinx
I need to make on big pick this weekend. Watch me pick one really surreal team (like, ARZ over PHL) and then have the Eagles laugh their way to victory.

Talk about jinxing a jinx and then seeing it come alive.
Man, what a call...
(No, I did not pick ARZ)

by ptmcmahon Can only blame yourself! You even had Philly down for 15. (As did I, and some had them for 16.)

Looking forward to next week when my 0 disappears

by ptmcmahon And you put Philly down for 16 again this week

My 16 pick was an intentional punt and it worked just fine

by ptmcmahon Damn, hadn't done the exact math but thought it was going to almost a tie! Oh well, I'll probably choke now anyway, as for some reason I am terrible at playoff contests.

Speaking of which, if people interested we can renew our players pick contest we did last couple of years on nfl.com

by ponchi101 I was not thinking on doing the NFL.COM playoff challenge, but we can do the NFL Decimation.
Who's up for that?

by ptmcmahon Definitely! That is the contest where I actually do well.

Or ... have to use a punter for my QB in the super bowl. But that's still fun too.

by Fastbackss 2/3 of the way to (im)perfection - would be the perfect ending to the season

by ptmcmahon The Bills saved you!

Overall we had a very bad week. I think NE Nitemare was the only one to get 5 games right.

by ptmcmahon So far everyone has picked SF (5 for 48 points, 3 for 36, and 1 for 25), Baltimore (4-3-2), and Detroit (3 for 36, 4 for 24, 2 for 12.)

Buffalo have a narrow 5-4 lead in the other gane. Ponchi and fastbackss both have Buffalo for 24 which is our biggest potential swing this weekend.

Expect next week to be the week where most of us are stuck making crazy picks

by ponchi101 It was time to take the risk.

by New England Nitemare I thought about taking Houston, but in the end, I couldn't pull the trigger on that one!! Houston has played well, it seems to me taking the Ravens out at home will be a tall task, we will find out in a few hours.

by ptmcmahon Even Buffalo at 24 isn’t much of a risk

It would have been silly to take Houston while sitting in second. If I was farther behind than third I sure might have though!

by Omegadoom

ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:36 am So far everyone has picked SF (5 for 48 points, 3 for 36, and 1 for 25), Baltimore (4-3-2), and Detroit (3 for 36, 4 for 24, 2 for 12.)

Buffalo have a narrow 5-4 lead in the other gane. Ponchi and fastbackss both have Buffalo for 24 which is our biggest potential swing this weekend.

Expect next week to be the week where most of us are stuck making crazy picks

After reading your analysis, I said what the h*#l, changed my pick, and decided to swing for the fences, lol!

by ptmcmahon Might not make much of a difference though… if your picks all win changing KC to 48 won’t ultimately change your score

by ponchi101

ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2024 3:36 am So far everyone has picked SF (5 for 48 points, 3 for 36, and 1 for 25), Baltimore (4-3-2), and Detroit (3 for 36, 4 for 24, 2 for 12.)

Buffalo have a narrow 5-4 lead in the other gane. Ponchi and fastbackss both have Buffalo for 24 which is our biggest potential swing this weekend.

Expect next week to be the week where most of us are stuck making crazy picks

Down to the last game.
If the home teams sweep, it is not only that fastbackss and I get the big 24 points. It is that we also get the 30 points bonus.
So, sorry fastbackss. We won't get it because there is no way I get 4 games right. And Wolfy also has the four games, so he will remain ahead of everybody.

by Fastbackss Lol - you think I would get it? That's the reason not you

by ptmcmahon Will the prowess of Wolfy & NE Nitemare be enough to overcome that then?

Me and 3 others have the other four so it’s going to be a big swing based on this game.

Sorry Omega, swinging for the fences is at best going to you no gain

by Omess Wow 4 perfect scores. Good job


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by ptmcmahon With Wolfy an NE Nitemare only getting the 12 point game wrong... it looks like it's still a very tight 5 person race at the top. Think it's only 37 point difference between 1st and 5th.

by ponchi101 Because I am out of the running and you guys can't see my post, I will post it here.
Kansas City.

by Omegadoom Super Bowl Pick
Kansas City Chiefs

by ptmcmahon I had San Fran… so whoever was the highest person with KC is our champ.

by ponchi101 Bit busy at the moment. Give me half the day and I will announce the winner.

by ptmcmahon Well we know Omega picked KC... question is did Tog or Wolfy?

by ponchi101 Well, in answer to your query...
Both Pt and Wolfy picked SF for the SB, which meant a huge 180 swing. So, the rest of us picked KC and therefore the winner of this year's NFL Challenge is:
Togtdyalttai!
Omegadoom came in second, and Nitemare came in third. The huge swing for the SB means PT dropped to fourth and Wolfy to 7th.

It was a fun year, and I hope we will do it again this coming season.
Thanks to all.

TOG: you trophy will be awarded as soon as I submit this message. Congrats, buddy

by ptmcmahon Comgrats Tog.

When I saw Omega pick KC I strongly considered switching just in case Wolfy and Tog did too

by New England Nitemare Congrats Tog!!!

Nice going!!!

See ya in September!!!

by Togtdyalttai Thanks guys! I thought for sure Pt would have taken KC, but I was always going to take them.

by Omegadoom Congrats Tog! Well played!