by ashkor87 What do we expect next year?
Who will do well, not do well, drop out of the reckoning?
What surprises in the tours?
For instance, will the WTA and ATP merge? Will the leadership of the WTA change? Will the player council get more clout?
What minor tweaks to the rules of tennis can we expect to see?
by
ti-amie ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:45 am
What do we expect next year?
Who will do well, not do well, drop out of the reckoning?
What surprises in the tours?
For instance, will the WTA and ATP merge? Will the leadership of the WTA change? Will the player council get more clout?
What minor tweaks to the rules of tennis can we expect to see?
The WTA will come up with some idiotic excuse to explain the YEC will be in KSA.
The WTA desperately wants/needs a merger but the ATP doesn't need them and the drama that comes with the WTA.
I think Simon will stay long enough to get a nice commission from KSA
Re tweaks to the rules lets see what shenanigans take place with the Next Gen tournament.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 2:45 am
What do we expect next year?
Who will do well, not do well, drop out of the reckoning?
What surprises in the tours?
For instance, will the WTA and ATP merge? Will the leadership of the WTA change? Will the player council get more clout?
What minor tweaks to the rules of tennis can we expect to see?
Nadal retires.
Venus retires after the Olympics.
No new Slam winners for the first time in a long time.
Barty starts training to come back.
Who else will retire after the Olympics?
by dave g I think Andy Murray is going to retire, probably at Wimbledon.
by
meganfernandez dave g wrote:I think Andy Murray is going to retire, probably at Wimbledon.
Or after Olympics. Does he make the cut for UK? He and Evans?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
by
skatingfan meganfernandez wrote: ↑Tue Nov 21, 2023 4:29 pm
Or after Olympics. Does he make the cut for UK? He and Evans?
At the moment, yes both would make the cutoff - pretty strong UK men's team.
by ashkor87 Re Osaka, she will certainly be back but I don't see her winning any majors..
The one I expect big things from next year is Leylah, on fast courts certainly but she is deploying her volleying skills to great effect on slow courts too...should do well everywhere...20% probability she will win a major...
by ashkor87 Probability of winning a grand slam title next year (need not add to 400% because smeone can win more than one)
Swiatek - 95%
Sabalenka 70%
Gauff 60%
Rybakina 40%
Pegula 20%
Leylah 20%
Muchova 10%
Vondrousova 10%
Jabeur 5%
some random player 10%
Djokovic - 95%
Alcaraz 80%
Medvedev 40%
Sinner 30%
someone else 5%
your thoughts?
by JTContinental I think Sinner will win a slam this year, but he’ll be the only new winner on either tour.
by ashkor87 based on the data that the AusOpen is the fastest court of the slams, I would bet on Coco to win it.. she has the foot speed and defense.. the rest of the majors, again, Swiatek is clear favorite at the French, given her game and the fact that no other player seems all that good on clay..Wimbledon, very hard to tell, though Rybakina or Sabalenka should win it, given their serves - USO again, should be Sabalenka..the court is slightly slower and she really should have won last year..
The men - Djokovic will probably win the AusOpen again, and the USO. I was quite surprised Alcaraz beat him at Wimbledon, and equally surprised that he beat Alcaraz at the French.. the natural order of things was reversed last year. Maybe order will be restored this year - which would mean Djokovic to win W and Alcaraz the FO..
far too much in the future, of course, but for now...
by meganfernandez I give Ons a strong chance at Wimbledon again. One more try.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
by
ashkor87 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:37 pm
I give Ons a strong chance at Wimbledon again
Just wish she had a bigger serve.... but yes, she came close twice..
by ashkor87 Swiatek's frailty on grass gives everyone else a chance.. but I think a big serve will win - Rybakina or Sabalenka.. Jabeur has the subtle and slice game, certainly but she had her chance this year, I feel - should have been able to beat Voundrousova.. the Rybakina final, I dont think she would have won in any case, Rybakina was far too confident after beating Halep, though she did turn the tables this year..
by
ashkor87 JTContinental wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:17 am
Sinner will win a slam this year,
best chance would be the Australian - fast court plus he has momentum.. but can he survive the heat and outdoors conditions? and Djokovic is very hard to beat at Melbourne.
by meganfernandez Would love your guys' thoughts on these questions I have to weight in on for Tennis.com this week.
Will Novak Djokovic finally get his long-sought Olympic gold medal at Roland Garros? (My opinion: yes)
Will Jannik Sinner break through and win a Grand Slam title? (No)
Will any WTA player win multiple majors? (No)
by
atlpam meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:37 pm
I give Ons a strong chance at Wimbledon again. One more try.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I feel she's going the way of Radwanska at Wimbledon - some beautiful grass court play, but destined to always be the bridesmaid.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:04 pm
JTContinental wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:17 am
Sinner will win a slam this year,
best chance would be the Australian - fast court plus he has momentum.. but can he survive the heat and outdoors conditions? and Djokovic is very hard to beat at Melbourne.
Ooh, can i use this in my writeup for Tennis.com? I wish I could credit you, but I wouldn't be able to.
by
meganfernandez atlpam wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:35 pm
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 1:37 pm
I give Ons a strong chance at Wimbledon again. One more try.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I feel she's going the way of Radwanska at Wimbledon - some beautiful grass court play, but destined to always be the bridesmaid.
Interesting comparison. I would have thought so if she hadn't bounced back from the tough 2022 loss and made another final. Her game is so well-suited to grass, I'm going to have faith and say she makes another run - if she is healthy. If the WTA had any huge servers, I might feel differently. Only Sabalenka and Rybakina might server her off the court. I expect Gauff to improve her serve this year.
by ashkor87 Gauff's serve is good enough already, her forehand grip makes it tough for her to deal with low balls .
by
ashkor87 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:36 pm
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:04 pm
JTContinental wrote: ↑Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:17 am
Sinner will win a slam this year,
best chance would be the Australian - fast court plus he has momentum.. but can he survive the heat and outdoors conditions? and Djokovic is very hard to beat at Melbourne.
Ooh, can i use this in my writeup for Tennis.com? I wish I could credit you, but I wouldn't be able to.
Certainly!! I don't need credit...
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 4:34 pm
Gauff's serve is good enough already, her forehand grip makes it tough for her to deal with low balls .
It is decent, but it should be a weapon. A bail-out weapon. Until then, it's not good enough.
Women aren't setting the bar high enough for themselves on their serve. She and BG were working with Roddick recently, so I bet they are amping it up.
And yes, the forehand... Do you think that will hurt her at Wimbledon? Does the ball still stay low on grass, or is it bouncing higher with the change to the surface?
ashkor87 wrote: ↑
Certainly!! I don't need credit...
Thanks! Secret weapon!
by
JTContinental meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:30 pm
Would love your guys' thoughts on these questions I have to weight in on for Tennis.com this week.
Will Novak Djokovic finally get his long-sought Olympic gold medal at Roland Garros? (My opinion: yes)
Will Jannik Sinner break through and win a Grand Slam title? (No)
Will any WTA player win multiple majors? (No)
Not to be contrary, but no, yes, yes
by
Suliso My answers would by No, Yes and Yes
Most confident about the last one. There are three players who could conceivably win 2+ with Swiatek most likely since she has done so before.
by
meganfernandez Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 7:37 pm
My answers would by No, Yes and Yes
Most confident about the last one. There are three players who could conceivably win 2+ with Swiatek most likely since she has done so before.
So exactly opposite of my answers.
It's so hard to say. I think Djokovic will prioritize the Olympics, and he usually accomplishes what he sets out to. As for the others - Sinner hasn't proven himself in B5 yet. One semi. I give him another year or so. I think Zverev actually might be just as closer as Sinner is because it's B5. Fro the WTA, other than Serena, only Kerber and Iga have repeated as Slam champs in recent memory. Quick, last person other than those three to win two in one year? (This is a bit mischaracterized because Osaka won consecutive Slams twice, they just weren't in the same year.)
I think Iga and Sabalenka could win two, but the WTA is so deep that I'm going with no.
by ashkor87 Agree with you on djokovic..sinner has a 30% chance so that is a no. For someone to win multiple majors, she has to be so dominant. swiatek is, so good chance she can do it ..
by Owendonovan I'm still kinda holding my breath for Kenin.
by
JTContinental meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 9:33 pm
Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 7:37 pm
My answers would by No, Yes and Yes
Most confident about the last one. There are three players who could conceivably win 2+ with Swiatek most likely since she has done so before.
So exactly opposite of my answers.
It's so hard to say. I think Djokovic will prioritize the Olympics, and he usually accomplishes what he sets out to. As for the others - Sinner hasn't proven himself in B5 yet. One semi. I give him another year or so. I think Zverev actually might be just as closer as Sinner is because it's B5. Fro the WTA, other than Serena, only Kerber and Iga have repeated as Slam champs in recent memory. Quick, last person other than those three to win two in one year? (This is a bit mischaracterized because Osaka won consecutive Slams twice, they just weren't in the same year.)
I think Iga and Sabalenka could win two, but the WTA is so deep that I'm going with no.
Venus?
by JTContinental Or maybe Justine did it more recently
by ashkor87 Realistically, Swiatek starts with the French in the bag - all she needs is one more..Wimbledon is the least likely..so USO is the most likely second title for her, given that she is a vey good hard court player and the USO is not so fast that someone like Rybakina or Sabalenka can blast her off it..
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:50 pm
Realistically, Swiatek starts with the French in the bag - all she needs is one more..Wimbledon is the least likely..so USO is the most likely second title for her, given that she is a vey good hard court player and the USO is not so fast that someone like Rybakina or Sabalenka can blast her off it..
Half in the bag, I'd say. Not quite Rafa yet. Muchova got very close last year, 6-4 in the third. But sure, she's the heavy favorite and there isn't as much competition as on hard court. Iga dropped 4 bagels in the first three rounds last year!
There's just so much competition at the US Open. So many players can break through there, it seems. Next year, she will probably go hard to win the Olympics, too, and might not be 100% by the US Open. Just some factors I'm thinking about.
by
meganfernandez JTContinental wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:08 am
Or maybe Justine did it more recently
Ding ding ding on Justine. Well done. I couldn't think back that far. She was the last before Kerber (not counting Serena), in 2007. Mauresmo did it in 2006. Venus was 2001. Of course, Serena did it a million times, so that kind of prevented others from having much chance.
I'm torn on whether to say it (a WTA player winning two Slams in a season) hasn't happened much in the last 10 years. Serena 2016, Kerber 2016, Iga 2022, and then Osaka winning back-to-back in 2018/19 and 2021/22... Does that count as rare?
Also, a new Slam champ has been crowned every year since 2014. Ten years. WTA only. I think that will continue.
by Suliso A new WTA slam champion is always likely albeit sooner or later there will be an exception.
by ponchi101 Novak remains in charge. 25 and 26 are simply a matter of where they will happen.
Rafa retires without coming back. The doctors and the pain make the call.
No new slam winners at the slams, with perhaps the exception of Sinner (ATP).
The WTA pattern remains: at least one new slam winner, maybe two.
Osaka ends the year firmly entrenched in the top 10, if not top 5.
Iga remains supreme on clay. Aryna will hit 2 double faults in her first match of the year and everybody will print 500 words about it.
Zverev, Rublev, Matteo, Fritz, Tiafoe and Rune will remain very good players, with little to show for (for the year).
Alcaraz will spend some time off, with some freaky injury he will pick when chasing down another shot maniacally.
by
JTContinental meganfernandez wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 3:30 pm
JTContinental wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:08 am
Or maybe Justine did it more recently
Ding ding ding on Justine. Well done. I couldn't think back that far. She was the last before Kerber (not counting Serena), in 2007. Mauresmo did it in 2006. Venus was 2001. Of course, Serena did it a million times, so that kind of prevented others from having much chance.
I'm torn on whether to say it (a WTA player winning two Slams in a season) hasn't happened much in the last 10 years. Serena 2016, Kerber 2016, Iga 2022, and then Osaka winning back-to-back in 2018/19 and 2021/22... Does that count as rare?
Also, a new Slam champ has been crowned every year since 2014. Ten years. WTA only. I think that will continue.
I forgot about Mauresmo.
I try to forget about Justine.
by ashkor87 Olympics always puzzles me...if Djokovic and Federer really cared about it, would they not have won it by now? Federer lost to Murray a few weeks after beating him at the same court..Wimbledon. The women's story is even more chaotic..Monica Puig? Really?! Sometimes I think the big players must be going to the Olympics as spectators, just to watch other athletic sports ..
by
skatingfan ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 11:41 am
Olympics always puzzles me...if Djokovic and Federer really cared about it, would they not have won it by now? Federer lost to Murray a few weeks after beating him at the same court..Wimbledon. The women's story is even more chaotic..Monica Puig? Really?! Sometimes I think the big players must be going to the Olympics as spectators, just to watch other athletic sports ..
Federer played a marathon match in the semis against del Potro, and I think the pressure of the event sometimes brings out the best in players that otherwise haven't achieved at that level.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 11:41 am
Olympics always puzzles me...if Djokovic and Federer really cared about it, would they not have won it by now? Federer lost to Murray a few weeks after beating him at the same court..Wimbledon. The women's story is even more chaotic..Monica Puig? Really?! Sometimes I think the big players must be going to the Olympics as spectators, just to watch other athletic sports ..
I wrote about tennis at the Olympics years ago. Simply, the event should not hold tennis. Every single slam is more prestigious, in tennis, than an Olympic medal.
Give it so some other sport.
by
ashkor87 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Mon Dec 04, 2023 4:39 pm
Do you think that will hurt her at Wimbledon? Does the ball still stay low on grass
Only Nadal has been able to get over that, and Borg.. in Borg's case, think, it is because there would usually be no grass at all on the court in the second week so it really wasnt a grass court event..Nadal, well, he is so great rules dont apply to him (and even he hasnt been so successful on grass lately), so yes, I think that forehand grip will hinder folks like Coco and Swiatek
by ponchi101 Borg's greatness had nothing to do with his grips or strokes. We simply forget what a great mover he was. He had it all: quickness, speed, lightness of foot, perfect balance.
That was the reason he was so great on grass.
About your comment on grips: agree. That grip on low bounces will never be the best choice.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 20, 2023 2:18 am
Borg's greatness had nothing to do with his grips or strokes. We simply forget what a great mover he was. He had it all: quickness, speed, lightness of foot, perfect balance.
That was the reason he was so great on grass.
About your comment on grips: agree. That grip on low bounces will never be the best choice.
yes, absolutely true.. his speed around the court was phenomenal. And the fact that he never missed, his amazing stamina enabled him to hit the ball a million times without losing shape or form..
by
ashkor87
Very nice! But I am surprised you didn't pick coco for the Australian...the court suits her, and she has momentum...though one could interpret your aricle as predicting a Coco title at the Ausopen..?
by ashkor87 The Melbourne court seems to be the fastest of the grand slam courts..technically, that should favor players like Sinner, Coco, Leylah, Alcaraz..in actual fact the ones who have thrived there are Sabalenka, Djokovic, Medvedev ..sigh....
by ponchi101 Court speed means nothing to Novak, and little to Medvedev. Novak can shorten his strokes so much he can re-direct shots at will. If the ball is coming too fast at him, he simply knows how to "bunt" it back, at almost the same speed as it came to him. Medvedev is almost the same on the BH side.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote:
Very nice! But I am surprised you didn't pick coco for the Australian...the court suits her, and she has momentum...though one could interpret your aricle as predicting a Coco title at the Ausopen..?
Australian is such a toss-up. Wouldn’t surprise me but I’d go with a new Slam winner or Sabalenka or Iga over Coco, but she should contend well and could win it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote:The Melbourne court seems to be the fastest of the grand slam courts..technically, that should favor players like Sinner, Coco, Leylah, Alcaraz..in actual fact the ones who have thrived there are Sabalenka, Djokovic, Medvedev ..sigh....
Sabalenka doesn’t like a fast court? I think she is good on anything and a fast court certainly amplifies her power.
by
ashkor87 meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:13 am
ashkor87 wrote:The Melbourne court seems to be the fastest of the grand slam courts..technically, that should favor players like Sinner, Coco, Leylah, Alcaraz..in actual fact the ones who have thrived there are Sabalenka, Djokovic, Medvedev ..sigh....
Sabalenka doesn’t like a fast court? I think she is good on anything and a fast court certainly amplifies her power.
She is a bit slow on her feet..on a fast court, she can't reach some balls ..and her power is not required on a fast court..of course, as I noted above, she did well enough last year!
by
ponchi101 But Ashkor, the statement that "on a fast court, she can't reach some balls" is tautologically true. On a fast court, everybody has issues reaching some balls; that is almost the definition of a fast court
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 23, 2023 2:31 pm
But Ashkor, the statement that "on a fast court, she can't reach some balls" is tautologically true. On a fast court, everybody has issues reaching some balls; that is almost the definition of a fast court
Someone slow of foot will not be able to reach more balls- would be more accurate
by ashkor87 Yes, he is a bit of patriot, he will try seriously..
by
ashkor87
yes, read it.. nice article, like the way you have reported it as a conversation...
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:10 am
Yes, he is a bit of patriot, he will try seriously..
I don't think it has anything to do with patriotism. If he felt it that way, he would have played for the Bronze in Tokyo, when he defaulted in the mixed competition.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote:
yes, read it.. nice article, like the way you have reported it as a conversation...
Thanks. A bit of a cheat.
but I liked the variety from other write ups.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
by ashkor87 Interestingly enough, Wimbledon seems to be the one major where some rank outsider could win, atleast on the women's side.. Djokovic and Alcaraz will dominate again but Swiatek doesnt seem to even aspire to wn it..Sabalenka and Rybakina do not have a firm grip on the game either, nor do Jabur and Vondrousova.. I would give a 3% chance to folks like Parks, Alexandrova and Stearns to win it this year. Muchova's fitness remains a question mark, else she would certainly have a good chance.
Of course, nobody will agree with me about Parks, but I see the makings of a Wimbledon champion in her game.. sooner or later, not necessarily this year.
by ponchi101 Agree that we will not agree on Parks. No results yet that you can say that she can compete at the level to win a slam.
It surprises me that you are so high on her. You have frequently said that the players that win slams have "class". Do you believe she really has that?
by
nelslus ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 8:25 pm
Agree that we will not agree on Parks. No results yet that you can say that she can compete at the level to win a slam.
It surprises me that you are so high on her. You have frequently said that the players that win slams have "class". Do you believe she really has that?
UHHHHH.....Can we also include Alexandrova and Stearns in the Agree to Not Agree discussion?!?! I mean, ain't gonna make Alexandrova happen.
&
.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 8:25 pm
Agree that we will not agree on Parks. No results yet that you can say that she can compete at the level to win a slam.
It surprises me that you are so high on her. You have frequently said that the players that win slams have "class". Do you believe she really has that?
Yes, I do think Parks has class..and real potential..just based on what I see when I see her playing...not data..her serve is simply beautiful to watch too..on a fast court she will do well..she did Lyon, remember, beating Garcia.. that is more than many others have accomplished yet, who are highly touted as future champions. !
by ti-amie I think Parks has potential too. I've seen her play very well and I've seen her play as if she's never been on a tennis court before. I doubt she can afford to pay one of the super coaches but I think her main coach is still her dad. She might have to do a Cori if she wants to move into the next level.
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 27, 2023 1:07 am
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 26, 2023 8:25 pm
Agree that we will not agree on Parks. No results yet that you can say that she can compete at the level to win a slam.
It surprises me that you are so high on her. You have frequently said that the players that win slams have "class". Do you believe she really has that?
Yes, I do think Parks has class..and real potential..just based on what I see when I see her playing...not data..her serve is simply beautiful to watch too..on a fast court she will do well..she did Lyon, remember, beating Garcia.. that is more than many others have accomplished yet, who are highly touted as future champions. !
Ok, decided to look her up. She is already ranked 31, at age 22. Not bad. So, I can see her do a Vondrousova. Or a Raducanu. You know my position. She will be seeded at the Aussie, and she can be in the OTHER category.
Will not be surprised if she goes higher. Or lower.
by ashkor87 See the match against Sakkari at Ostrava
..played with poise and controlled agression- kept looking to come forward, hit many volleys to back up her big serve (if I am not mistaken, she hit the fastest serve at the USO this year)..that kind of game works well on a fast court, and she is quite athletic too, moves well. Yes, she has been up and down, but i always like to judge a player by peak performance, not average. - which is what rankings are about
by ponchi101 Different approach.
At her peak, Yelena Ostapenko plays some of the most sublime tennis. She hits winners like they are routine.
At her average, Ostapenko plays a looney game that leads to unexplainable defeats.
And at slams, you need 7 matches full of consistency.
Judging somebody for his/her peak is like saying that the player that hit the most spectacular winner during the match was the best player, regardless of the score.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:19 pm
Different approach.
At her peak, Yelena Ostapenko plays some of the most sublime tennis. She hits winners like they are routine.
At her average, Ostapenko plays a looney game that leads to unexplainable defeats.
And at slams, you need 7 matches full of consistency.
Judging somebody for his/her peak is like saying that the player that hit the most spectacular winner during the match was the best player, regardless of the score.
i didnt say most spectacular winner - that is a stretch, not what I said or meant.. I guess I dont value consistency as much as others do... I still think Adriano Panatta was a great player, for instance, so was (is) DelPotro though they may not have racked up the numbers.
by ponchi101 No disagreement on Panatta or Delpo. Great players indeed.
But they are nowhere near, for example, Mats Wilander, the one player that I say milked his talent to the most. Wilander was as entertaining and exciting as a bowl of porridge; compared to Panatta, he was precisely porridge compared to champagne.
Yet it is Wilander that holds 7 slams.
Consistency is a tremendous asset in tennis. Tony Trabert said it: master the art of getting the ball over once more than your opponent, and you will be a champion.
by ashkor87 I wouldn't cross the street to watch a Wilander match..indeed, I once walked out of one in Dallas, circa 1984
by ashkor87 Probabilities for AO champion
Djokovic 40%
Sinner 25%
Medvedev 10%
Alcaraz 15%
Zverev 5%
Field 5% including Nadal
Coco Gauff 35%
Rybakina 25%
Sabalenka 20%
Swiatek 15%
Field 5%
your estimates?
by Suliso Djokovic of course. For women too early for Gauff to win another one. I'm going with either Sabalenka or Rybakina (depending on Brisbane outcome).
by ponchi101 I don't mind a pick of Gauff as champion, but not at twice over Iga.
I say:
Coco, Elena, Rybakina and Iga at a combined 50%. And the field at the rest of the 50%.
Novak at 40%... Alright. He has that injury now. SInner as a second favorite, too good for me. I would put Daniil over him.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:26 pm
I don't mind a pick of Gauff as champion, but not at twice over Iga.
I say:
Coco, Elena, Rybakina and Iga at a combined 50%. And the field at the rest of the 50%.
Novak at 40%... Alright. He has that injury now. SInner as a second favorite, too good for me. I would put Daniil over him.
you really think someone other than Coco-Saba-Ryba-Swiatek has a chance? I cant see it..
(I assume that is what you meant)
by ponchi101 I see it the other way around. You say that players such as Pegula, Ons, Vondrousova, BHM, Ostapenko (I know, the streakiness) and the likes of Kudermetova, Alexandrova and Samsonova have zero chance? We continue to disagree on the power of "other", but new winners keep popping up every year.
Hey, what about Osaka? Sure, not a great first event, but in slams she will get the time to build up on the event, with the day off in between. Too many players with a 1% chance to then give the entire field a 5% chance.
by dave g For the ATP, I'll accept Ashkor's probabilities after giving Zverev's 5% to Djokovic.
For the WTA, I'd go with Ponchi's even probabilities for Gauff, Rybakina, Sablaenka, and Swiatek, but I woul only give the field 20%. This would leave
Gauff, Rybakina, Sablaenka, and Swiatek with 20% each and the field with 20%.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:42 pm
I see it the other way around. You say that players such as Pegula, Ons, Vondrousova, BHM, Ostapenko (I know, the streakiness) and the likes of Kudermetova, Alexandrova and Samsonova have zero chance? We continue to disagree on the power of "other", but new winners keep popping up every year.
Hey, what about Osaka? Sure, not a great first event, but in slams she will get the time to build up on the event, with the day off in between. Too many players with a 1% chance to then give the entire field a 5% chance.
Interesting ..I do think only BHM of the ones you named, could spring a surprise..she has the game, has lots of upside ..Samsonova, ostapenko and Vondrousova will find the court a bit too fast, and the others don't really have it in them to win a major ...so maybe 10% BHM, reduce Coco and Rybakina a bit...
by Suliso Sabalenka's chances go down and Rybakina's up now. Swiatek and Gauff of course still in the running. Of course the field has some chances too, but hard to pick out anyone in particular. Right now the very top is pretty strong.
by Suliso So depending on the draw of course. Rybakina - W, Swiatek - SF, Sabalenka - R16 and Gauff - SF. A surprise finalist.
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:46 am
So depending on the draw of course. Rybakina - W, Swiatek - SF, Sabalenka - R16 and Gauff - SF. A surprise finalist.
as you say, we will have to wait for the draw..