The next BIG

[ponchi101]

Obviously, Jannik and Carlos have separated from the young pack. They are clearly the best of the new crop.
Who and how many will join them to become the next BIG group? And how many slams will this new group achieve?

[Suliso]

I would say none of the others for the next 2-3 years. Maybe Rune, but I'd not bet money on it. I've never seen Arnaldi play...

[meganfernandez]

I want a "who the hell knows" option. Most people don't have BIG-level/champion-level careers. They fluctuate a lot. It's so hard to tell who will sustain the champion level. A lot of it is circumstantial, with injuries and other life events. But they're all amazing. Sometimes I think we forget that.

I still think the serve is key, so Shelton is poised for the highest achievements if he can develop the other stuff, which remains to be seen. But the markers are positive. Roddick drilled a point on his podcast yesterday, that you need elite movement to win Slams now. His own movement wouldn't have been good enough now. Shelton probably isn't that good of a mover just yet.

I think Rune will get back to his previous level. But then, we all thought Shapo and FAA would, and they haven't yet, and it's been awhile. Those careers are more common than Sinner's and Alcaraz's.

[Suliso]

It is of course true that 99.9% players don't have multi Slam careers and many of them are still amazing. Nevertheless OCCASIONALLY a new player rises up and you feel straight away that horrible injuries aside they're likely to win many. The former big three were like that and I think the current top two are as well. For example, Federer winning many Slams was "obvious" long before he won his first. At least since he beat Pete at Wimbledon if not before.

[meganfernandez]

It is of course true that 99.9% players don't have multi Slam careers and many of them are still amazing. Nevertheless OCCASIONALLY a new player rises up and you feel straight away that horrible injuries aside they're likely to win many. The former big three were like that and I think the current top two are as well. For example, Federer winning many Slams was "obvious" long before he won his first. At least since he beat Pete at Wimbledon if not before.

There's a category of "when, not if" players that you're talking about, the way we assess potential. I'd love to know how many of them became whens. I bet less than 50%. Keys, for instance. She was talked about as a definite "when, not if." Didn't happen. Grigor, didn't happen. Zverev was a "when, not if" IMO. Hasn't happened and probably won't. Can't just say the Big 3 got in his way - that's part of the If. Will you be be able to break through the competition? He hasn't and IMO probably won't without some incredible luck.

[Suliso]

I don't agree - none of the players you listed where "when, not if". Such players appear on the horizon very rarely. Maybe 4-5 times per decade if even that.

[Suliso]

From those who haven't won yet MAYBE Andreeva (needs the first big result). Nobody else on either tour right now.

[JTContinental]

Keys was definitely talked about as a “when, not if” when she started out, particularly when Davenport was her coach.

[Suliso]

Lots of players are hyped up too much. Of course this assesment not 100% foolproof.

[meganfernandez]

Keys was definitely talked about as a “when, not if” when she started out, particularly when Davenport was her coach.

I know Wertheim called her when, not if. He's the one I hear use that phrase.

[Suliso]

In this century who wasn't "when not if" for me, but won 2+ on ATP tour? Only Wawrinka.

For women there are few more I didn't see early - Kuznetsova, Li, Kvitova, Azarenka, Muguruza and Kerber. Also Rybakina if she wins another.

[meganfernandez]

In this century who wasn't "when not if" for me, but won 2+ on ATP tour? Only Wawrinka.

For women there are few more I didn't see early - Kuznetsova, Li, Kvitova, Azarenka, Muguruza and Kerber. Also Rybakina if she wins another.

Good call on Wawrinka. A lot of those women were surprises at the time, I agree, other than Azarenka. Li had grown into it by the time she won. Right now I think a lot of people would consider Andreeva a "when not if." Coco was and she made good.

I digress on the original topic, though.

[Owendonovan]

I kinda expect Ons and Svitolina to grab a slam sometime. Rune and Shelton sneak one in on a draw that opens up for them.

[ti-amie]

Two or three years ago Svitolina was a "when not if" for me but I think her time has past.
Ons playing injured may have hurt her chances for a Slam.

Emotionally Rune has gone backwards and that is why his game has stalled. He needed one voice in his ear but someone (his mother?) had everyone and their brother talking to him at the same time and thus he reaches critical points in a match and often gets mind freeze.

My tennis friend who used to coach said Shelton is going to have a career like Shapovalov. It would be nice if he didn't but he needs to get a permanent coach. His dad won't take him to the next level. By the time Shapo made the change from his mom it was too late.

If possible Ponchi can you do this poll again at the end of the year?

[meganfernandez]

Two or three years ago Svitolina was a "when not if" for me but I think her time has past.
Ons playing injured may have hurt her chances for a Slam.

Emotionally Rune has gone backwards and that is why his game has stalled. He needed one voice in his ear but someone (his mother?) had everyone and their brother talking to him at the same time and thus he reaches critical points in a match and often gets mind freeze.

My tennis friend who used to coach said Shelton is going to have a career like Shapovalov. It would be nice if he didn't but he needs to get a permanent coach. His dad won't take him to the next level. By the time Shapo made the change from his mom it was too late.

If possible Ponchi can you do this poll again at the end of the year?

Yes, Svitolina was. Maybe Pliskova. Wozniacki, too, and she barely squeaked in there. Was down and out in R2 that year.

I have higher hopes for Shelton because of the lefty serve. Huge weapon. Better than Shapo's lefty serve. And maybe Ben will get another voice. But Brian Shelton could be a better coach than Shapo's mom. Curious why your friend thinks he's inadequate. I wouldn't write off every parent as the wrong coach.

I still think Ons has a chance on grass for a couple more years.