'22 AO Day 10 OoP & Discussion

[ponchi101]

Early prediction - Collins will beat Swiatek, but then lose meekly to either Barty or Keys.

Agree that she will beat Swiatek, but not sure about going down meekly to Keys or Barty.
Only thing that I would say is that it might be a nervous final. Collins, Keys or Barty will be playing for a lot. And I am not sure if an all American final will not be extremely tense.

[meganfernandez]

FAA was really impressive the entire tournament. I did not see any of this match, but it does not surprise me he came really close to winning it.

His ball-striking has been exquisite. He still has rough patches, bit his progress since this time a year ago is immense.

Completely agree

I agree, and I'm glad to hear this. The Tennis Podcast - which I usually agree with - was so hard on Shapo after this match, for complaining about Rafa's slow play to immature shot selection to his press conference. They called him a brat and said the first two sets were a rout and the worst of Shapo. I was stunned - I had a completely different take. I thought he competed and played so well. Didn't have a meltdown. 3 and 4 is not a rout. He missed a big opportunity and should have won it, but my god, it's a fifth set against Rafa, and it's not like Shapo wasn't feeling some physical effects by then, too. I watched his press conference and didn't think he was being a baby about the preferential treatment issue. He evidently believes it, stands by it and was happy to talk about it when asked. I think he had a point about the staredown with the umpire early in the first set. Shapo had already complained about Rafa's time thing, then when he (Shapo) was in position to return serve, he noticed the umpire looking at him, not Rafa. So he asked the umpire, why are you looking at me and not watching Rafa? Shapo thought the umpire was just staring him down when he should have been keeping an eye on Rafa between his serve points. Shapo's right - the umpire has to watch the server.

Anyway. Nice to see I'm not alone in Shapo's defense. I hope this is a step toward playing his best more consistently.

[jazzyg]

I've always felt analysts were harder on Shapovalov than any other young player and agree with every word you just wrote.

He stayed positive despite losing the first two sets, turned the match around and easily could have won it. He probably always will be more subject to loose games than other top players, but he is learning how to win anyway and has a style different than any of the other top players. I don't like some of his histrionics during matches, but his game, to me, is the most aesthetically pleasing of anyone on tour right now. His athleticism and power bother Rafa. There's a reason he beat him when he was 18 and had match points against him last year on clay--his worst surface and Nadal's best.

Prediction: Deuce's head is going to explode when Shapovalov and Andreescu win the same slam in the next two or three years.

[meganfernandez]

I've always felt analysts were harder on Shapovalov than any other young player and agree with every word you just wrote.

He stayed positive despite losing the first two sets, turned the match around and easily could have won it. He probably always will be more subject to loose games than other top players, but he is learning how to win anyway and has a style different than any of the other top players. I don't like some of his histrionics during matches, but his game, to me, is the most aesthetically pleasing of anyone on tour right now. His athleticism and power bother Rafa. There's a reason he beat him when he was 18 and had match points against him last year on clay--his worst surface and Nadal's best.

Prediction: Deuce's head is going to explode when Shapovalov and Andreescu win the same slam in the next two or three years.

Haha, I doubt that Deuce would ever accept that result as legitimate. I kid, I kid...

[ti-amie]

The 'match predictor' that the broadcast I'm often stuck with shows is useless.
At the beginning of the match and the beginning of every set, they put up the 'chance of winning' percentage - they overlay it over the court surface. And every time, whoever wins the first set is predicted to be the winner - by a large percentage.
Tonight, they had Swiatek as the large favourite as the match began - 72% chance of winning the match. After the first set, they had Kanepi with an 85% chance of winning the match. After needing 9 set points to win the set.

Where do they come up with this stuff?
And, more importantly - why?

Gambling

[ponchi101]

...

Gambling

And, we have a winner!

[jazzyg]

I disagree with the assessment that Collins will beat Swiatek, although I admit I did not watch a point of her match against Cornet because I would have gotten physically ill seeing Cornet instead of Halep in that matchup.

I did watch almost all of Swiatek-Kanepi, and even though Kanepi was a tiebreak away from winning in straights and the play was scratchy, I liked what I saw from Swiatek. Once she got her teeth in the match, I never thought she had a chance to lose. She's simply more talented than Collins, which does not guarantee a win, but combined with her intense desire to win, I expect it to put her over the top.

[meganfernandez]

I disagree with the assessment that Collins will beat Swiatek, although I admit I did not watch a point of her match against Cornet because I would have gotten physically ill seeing Cornet instead of Halep in that matchup.

I did watch almost all of Swiatek-Kanepi, and even though Kanepi was a tiebreak away from winning in straights and the play was scratchy, I liked what I saw from Swiatek. Once she got her teeth in the match, I never thought she had a chance to lose. She's simply more talented than Collins, which does not guarantee a win, but combined with her intense desire to win, I expect it to put her over the top.

To which Danielle says:



BTW, I'm picking Swiatek, too.

[Deuce]

The 'match predictor' that the broadcast I'm often stuck with shows is useless.
At the beginning of the match and the beginning of every set, they put up the 'chance of winning' percentage - they overlay it over the court surface. And every time, whoever wins the first set is predicted to be the winner - by a large percentage.
Tonight, they had Swiatek as the large favourite as the match began - 72% chance of winning the match. After the first set, they had Kanepi with an 85% chance of winning the match. After needing 9 set points to win the set.

Where do they come up with this stuff?
And, more importantly - why?

Gambling

It doesn't help with gambling - unless one is smart enough to bet AGAINST its predictions.

Really, though - this 'win predictor' thing they use is an insult to those who know tennis. It takes no relevant information into account. It's like asking a 7 year old child who's never watched tennis to predict the winner - the child will chose the player who is wearing their favourite colour shirt.
It's just really, really bad. You'd get better results flipping a coin - literally.

[ponchi101]

This old fashion Davis Cup doubles match is actually pretty good.
Kyrgios, as is his style, said that when you get two singles players against doubles players, the singles players will win.
Which is completely inelegant from his part, but 100% right. Still, the match has been very close. This time, kudos to Nick.

[meganfernandez]

This old fashion Davis Cup doubles match is actually pretty good.
Kyrgios, as is his style, said that when you get two singles players against doubles players, the singles players will win.
Which is completely inelegant from his part, but 100% right. Still, the match has been very close. This time, kudos to Nick.

He obviously enjoys doubles more than singles. Can handle it better physically. But he might not be into it as much when it’s not the Australian Open. He likes the stage. Completely different experience than anywhere except here and the Us Open.


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[Deuce]

I've always felt analysts were harder on Shapovalov than any other young player and agree with every word you just wrote.

He stayed positive despite losing the first two sets, turned the match around and easily could have won it. He probably always will be more subject to loose games than other top players, but he is learning how to win anyway and has a style different than any of the other top players. I don't like some of his histrionics during matches, but his game, to me, is the most aesthetically pleasing of anyone on tour right now. His athleticism and power bother Rafa. There's a reason he beat him when he was 18 and had match points against him last year on clay--his worst surface and Nadal's best.

Prediction: Deuce's head is going to explode when Shapovalov and Andreescu win the same slam in the next two or three years.

The time that Denis beat Nadal that you refer to was in Canada. That's why Denis won, pure and simple.
I'm not saying the result was fixed - but let's just say that Denis (and Tennis Canada) had more motivation to win that match than Nadal did. If they had played at a Major at that same exact time, and both players were healthy - ANY Major - there is no way in hell that Denis would have won.

Strange results occur more in non-Majors than in Majors - especially in the weeks preceding a Major - because top players sometimes decide that they'd rather rest than play another match, etc. This is rather obvious.
That time that Denis beat Nadal in Montreal reminded me of when hometown boy Simon Larose (ranked 314) beat Gustavo Kuerten (ranked 14 and winner of a couple of Majors and several Masters 1000s) at the same venue.
Simon Who?...

If Denis is going to win a Major, both he and his game will need to mature enormously. His game looks good - "aesthetically pleasing", as you say - but that counts for nothing. It's results that count. Monfils's game is nice looking, too... Kyrgios can hit any shot from anywhere... Arazi was a magician with a racquet... None of it means much if there is not maturity to accompany the flashiness.

As for Andreescu... there's a higher likelihood that her career is essentially finished already than that she'll win another Major.

[Deuce]

This old fashion Davis Cup doubles match is actually pretty good.
Kyrgios, as is his style, said that when you get two singles players against doubles players, the singles players will win.
Which is completely inelegant from his part, but 100% right. Still, the match has been very close. This time, kudos to Nick.

I don't agree at all that 2 good singles players will beat 2 'doubles specialists'. That was just Nick's ego talking (again). The 'doubles specialists' will win the majority of such matches.
The main reasons that Nick and Thanasi are doing well at this tournament are A) it's their home tournament, and they're feeding off of the crowd, and B) they've played doubles together for a long time, know each other's games very well, and know each other personally very well. These elements would not apply to 2 other good singles players who had rarely played together and are playing in a neutral country.

It's similar with Denis and Felix - they're a good doubles team because they played a lot of doubles together growing up, they're both Canadian, etc.

[meganfernandez]

Oh my god, Nick lost his sh*t when he lost serve in the 2nd and someone from the crowd was rowdy as he was preparing to serve. He yelled at that person to be quiet during the serve and jawed at the umpire too. Broke his racket after losing the game. He was already pissed because he thought the netcord sensor was making phantom calls. So this crowd that he riles up and feeds off of bites him in the ass. So poetic.

If he were a professional player, he would have kept it together and done his job of holding serve for a set and 5-2 lead.


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[Deuce]

Oh my god, Nick lost his sh*t when he lost serve in the 2nd and someone from the crowd was rowdy as he was preparing to serve. He yelled at that person to be quiet during the serve and jawed at the umpire too. Broke his racket after losing the game. He was already pissed because he thought the netcord sensor was making phantom calls. So this crowd that he riles up and feeds off of bites him in the ass. So poetic.

If he were a professional player, he would have kept it together and done his job of holding serve for a set and 5-2 lead.

That match is Day 11, by the way... not Day 10.