Horse Racing Random

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dryrunguy
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#331

Post by dryrunguy »

Finally, we had the Santa Anita Derby. The former Baffert horses, now in the stable of Tim Yakteen, were #2, #4, and #6. The #4 and #3 (Richard Mandella trained) were the heavy favorites.

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Re: Horse Racing Random

#332

Post by dryrunguy »

Equibase speed figures for yesterday's winners are in.

Zandon (Bluegrass winner): 107
Mo Donegal (Wood winner): 103
Taiba (Santa Anita winner): 102

Incidentally, Smile Happy, who finished second to Zandon in the Bluegrass, put up a 104. He also qualified for the Derby.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#333

Post by dryrunguy »

Okay. So for my horses, the INTENT is official:

Imperiously (2-year-old filly) plans to debut in a 4.5-furlong race at Gulfstream on 4/21 on dirt.

Courageous Copper (2-year-old colt) plans to debut in a 4.5-furlong race at Gulfstream on 4/22 on dirt.

Doc Ballard (2-year-old colt) plans to debut in a 5.5-furlong race at Keeneland on 4/28 on turf.

Unified Dreams (3-year-old colt) plans to (FINALLY) make his debut in a 6-furlong race at Churchill on 5/4 on dirt--that's the Wednesday before the Derby.

Of course, this is all conditional on how future training preparations go between now and the identified dates, especially their works out of the gate, and the degree to which races fill. No one will run unless all indications show they are ready. Fingers crossed!
Last edited by dryrunguy on Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#334

Post by ponchi101 »

I am still partial to Dances With Bourbon, but Courageous Copper may become a favorite too.
Cool name :thumbsup:
Good luck!
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#335

Post by ti-amie »

I miss Dances with Bourbon too but Courageous Copper is slowly becoming a fave.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#336

Post by dryrunguy »

About Courageous Copper...

One of the many tools breeders, buyers, and handicappers alike use to breed, buy, or predict future winners is trueNicks.com. TrueNicks is a tool breeders can use to strategically mate mares and stallions to produce winners based on data-driven genetic predictability. Buyers use it as a tool to determine if a horse for sale at auction--particularly a weanling, yearling, or 2-year-old--might be a potential winner based on racing results from horses with similar pedigrees. Handicappers like me use it to determine if a first-time starter or a horse early in its racing career might be a winner.

It is not a perfect tool, especially when you're dealing with the progeny of young sires where the data are limited. The other reason why it is not a perfect tool is because it uses data based ENTIRELY on sire lines crossed with broodmares from other sire lines. The broodmares themselves don't figure into the data AT ALL. That's a serious problem.

I mention it for this reason: TrueNicks assigns ratings to matings that reflect typical educational results. A, B, C, D, and F (with +s and -s and A++ being the highest possible rating). Sometimes you'll get a result of a mating that produces a "Insufficient Data" result.

For the four horses I have that are supposed to make their debuts in the next month, here's how TrueNicks evaluated the sire-line matings:

Doc Ballard: A
Unified Dreams: A (that mating was a B+ a few months ago; so that sire-line mating has produced a few more winners in the past months)
Imperiously: C+ (that mating was a B a few months ago, so that sire-line mating has been less successful in recent months)
Courageous Copper: D

So if you believe TruNicks, Courageous Copper SHOULD be the least successful of the four.

His training works to date suggest otherwise. But we'll see.

Personally, I love an underdog. :)
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#337

Post by ti-amie »

“Do not grow old, no matter how long you live. Never cease to stand like curious children before the Great Mystery into which we were born.” Albert Einstein
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#338

Post by dryrunguy »

Baffert's apologists have been pills on Horse Racing Twitter. A quick synopsis: "He was already banned in New York. He was already banned in Kentucky. Now he's banned at the Preakness. There's no need to remind us that he is basically banned everywhere!"

Except California, where his horses still race, and numerous other jurisdictions, if he were so inclined to demean himself or step out of his protected zone.

Incidentally, a lot of these folks are apologists from the MyRacehorse partnerships who had horses trained by Baffert (e.g., Authentic).

People either hate him or worship him. There's no middle ground.

Meanwhile, folks are already putting asterisks by Taiba and Messier if either wins the Derby.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#339

Post by ti-amie »

Wow.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#340

Post by dryrunguy »

It's official.

Imperiously (2-year-old) will make her debut at Gulfstream on 4/21 in a field of 8--on dirt at 4.5 furlongs in a maiden special weight (no claiming) with a purse of $55K. She will break from the outside gate (#8). On paper and with limited information available on the runners (all are first-time starters), she looks as good as anyone else in the field.

Courageous Cooper (2-year-old) will make his debut at Gulfstream on 4/22 in a field of 7--on dirt at 5.5 furlongs in a maiden special weight (no claiming) also at a $55K purse. He will break from gate #6 in a field of 7. One horse in the field has a previous race and ran pretty well. The rest are first-time starters. If I were betting his race, I wouldn't pick him because he only has 3-furlong works (which are very good), but he doesn't have any 4-furlong or 5-furlong works. That's a disadvantaged. We'll see how it goes, but it wouldn't surprise me if he showed speed and faded in the stretch. Again, we'll see.

::

Doc Ballard (2-year-old) is still being pointed to a race on turf at Keeneland on 4/28. He will be entered a few days from now. We just have to wait to see if the race fills. I expect it will, and I expect Wesley Ward will have one or two horses in that field that will almost certainly go off as the heavy favorites. We'll see.

Unified Dreams (3-year-old) is now being targeted for a different race, which pleases me very much. His last work (4 furlongs at 39:00) was good enough that we're now pointing him to a maiden special race (no claiming) at Keeneland on 4/29 instead of waiting for the claiming race we planned on at Churchill in early May. This is conditional on his next work on 4/22. If all goes well, he'll run at 6.5 furlongs with a $100K purse.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#341

Post by dryrunguy »

So, Imperiously made her debut at Gulfstream today. It's impossible to really assess her because as soon as she darted out of the starting gate, she veered to her right--toward the parking lot. LOL! Good thing she broke from the outside gate. After that, you could rarely see her on the screen--she was that far back. She only managed to pass one horse because she got off to such a terrible start.

It was an educational experience for her. Hopefully she corrects herself in her next start where she will almost certainly go off at huge odds.

I'm anxious to hear what the jockey told Mary and Lisa after the race. Jockey feedback after a first race can be VERY revealing.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#342

Post by dryrunguy »

Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday. I actually have a bit of a connection to Kathleen O. The woman who runs Shooting Star Thoroughbreds served as the bloodstock agent that found Kathleen O. for the owners, Winngate Stables.

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Re: Horse Racing Random

#343

Post by dryrunguy »

And here are the post positions and morning line odds for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Horse Racing Twitter is exploding over a few things. First, the room gasped when Mo Donegal drew the rail post. I don't think it will bother him one bit. He has no early speed but at least he'll keep rail position. He'll just have to find a way out at some point. Second, Zandon getting M/L favoritism over Epicenter has people talking. It's silly, really. There's no practical difference between being 3/1 compared to 7/2.

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Re: Horse Racing Random

#344

Post by ti-amie »

That's a huge field for the Derby.
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Re: Horse Racing Random

#345

Post by dryrunguy »

ti-amie wrote: Mon May 02, 2022 10:13 pm That's a huge field for the Derby.
In recent years, with the new Derby qualification system, it has always been a field of 20. I don't like it, but it is what it is.
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