ATP & WTA rankings

[ponchi101]

Her performance in finals tells me she really is not hindered by pressure. I think she is affected way more by losses; remember the photos of her after she lost in Tokyo? She was very sad about that. I think that when she is facing pressure she does what Evert used to do: imagine her opponent winning and shaking hands at the net. That fuels her.
Anyway, RG will have at least 20 contenders. Basically the entire top ten (I would exclude Badosa, Anett and Aryna) and my favorite OTHER, which includes like 25 more players. It will be wide open.

[meganfernandez]

Her performance in finals tells me she really is not hindered by pressure. I think she is affected way more by losses; remember the photos of her after she lost in Tokyo? She was very sad about that. I think that when she is facing pressure she does what Evert used to do: imagine her opponent winning and shaking hands at the net. That fuels her.
Anyway, RG will have at least 20 contenders. Basically the entire top ten (I would exclude Badosa, Anett and Aryna) and my favorite OTHER, which includes like 25 more players. It will be wide open.

You might be right about pressure, in which case Swiatek is extremely lucky (or if it's the work of the sport psychologist, I'm hiring one). I think if Swiatek and Barty have good clay seasons, they will separate themselves from the pack as the two heavy favorites. They will be the story, #1 and #2 seeds playing for the #1 ranking possibly. Although you're right, there still could be some contenders since it's B3 but I don't think your OTHER will be in the mix. I'd go with Badosa, Fernandez, Halep, maaaaybe Muguruza, Keys (she loves clay), Anisimova if she can shake off IW. Whither Krejcikova? The picture will change considerably if Barty and Swiatek each win a title on clay.

Muchova returns in Miami, I think.

[ponchi101]

It is the one tournament where OTHER is the favorite:
Starting in 2016, it has been FIRST TIME WINNER AND FIRST SLAM WON all over: Garbie, Alona, Halep, Ashley, Iga, Barbora. Add to that champions like Schiavone, Ivanovic, Miskyna and Majoli, and it is the historically most open Slam.
I am expecting a Camila Osorio/Whomeverina Someonekurtova final.

[meganfernandez]

It is the one tournament where OTHER is the favorite:
Starting in 2016, it has been FIRST TIME WINNER AND FIRST SLAM WON all over: Garbie, Alona, Halep, Ashley, Iga, Barbora. Add to that champions like Schiavone, Ivanovic, Miskyna and Majoli, and it is the historically most open Slam.
I am expecting a Camila Osorio/Whomeverina Someonekurtova final.

True, it seems like more lower seeds go far and there's a surprise winner more often. But it might not continue. It could, but it will be harder against two recent champs, #1 and #2, who have separated themselves from the pack.

Regarding the theory, there are a few more wrinkles. I think you have to look at who made the semis and finals, not just who won. Halep, of course, doesn't fit the theory - she was No. 1 and the favorite and beat the No. 3 seed in the semis. Neither does Ivanovic - she was in the previous year's French Open final and also coming off the Australian Open final, so she was probably on the short list of contenders. Mugu beat Serena, Ostapenko beat Halep (and the #2 seed was also in the semis), Iga beat a reigning Slam champ. The point is, usually one or two big dogs are alive at the end.

[ti-amie]

[ponchi101]

Time for the WC's, but there has got to be something more to her inactivity. Time to start doubting any return, ever?

[Deuce]

I doubted her return a while ago.
Between a questionable motivation and having a body that obviously cannot withstand the rigours of the pro tennis tour, I say there's a very, very good chance that we'll never see her in the top 30 again, and a decent chance that, after a failed comeback attempt or two, she'll ride off into the sunset.

First Genie Bouchard, then Andreescu... a good part of one year, and then nothing.
Leylah had better not follow in the footsteps of her fellow canucks...

[meganfernandez]

I doubted her return a while ago.
Between a questionable motivation and having a body that obviously cannot withstand the rigours of the pro tennis tour, I say there's a very, very good chance that we'll never see her in the top 30 again, and a decent chance that, after a failed comeback attempt or two, she'll ride off into the sunset.

First Genie Bouchard, then Andreescu... a good part of one year, and then nothing.
Leylah had better not follow in the footsteps of her fellow canucks...

It must be really disappointing for Canadian fans with those two not living up to the expectations and excitement. I'm not as convinced that Andreescu is done contending for Slams or No. 1, but it has certainly been bleak since 2019. At least Andreescu's "good part of a year" was the bulk of it - IW through US Open. Can't remember about Bouchard, but seems like she had a couple years of steady ascent, culminating in the Wimbledon final in 2014. I don't think Leylah is the same animal, do you?

[ponchi101]

Bouchard was, to me, the most puzzling. It was SF, SF, F, and QF at the four slams that year, and there were no health issues or injuries. It was as if she really forgot how to play.
Bianca, on the other hand, gets injured while brushing her teeth. I know it is not polite to point out at this aspect, but I think she is carrying some extra weight and that is no good if your knees are not solid. I remember how Rafa had to drop some weight himself because that little extra was working against him.

[meganfernandez]

Bouchard was, to me, the most puzzling. It was SF, SF, F, and QF at the four slams that year, and there were no health issues or injuries. It was as if she really forgot how to play.
Bianca, on the other hand, gets injured while brushing her teeth. I know it is not polite to point out at this aspect, but I think she is carrying some extra weight and that is no good if your knees are not solid. I remember how Rafa had to drop some weight himself because that little extra was working against him.

Weight with athletes - especially women, who carry weight differently than men, and more fat by design - is a tricky one. I know you aren't being insulting or judgmental or talking about her looks. It's a reality for joint health and overall fitness and many other things. It's just hard to tell exactly how a given amount affects a given individual. I wish it wasn't such a taboo topic, but also wish we respect how individual it is. (Not that you didn't.) And you could be right if she has knee issues. But she is so young, too...

Shelby Rodgers got leaner and meaner during the off-season... Will see if it turns into results.

[Deuce]

I doubted her return a while ago.
Between a questionable motivation and having a body that obviously cannot withstand the rigours of the pro tennis tour, I say there's a very, very good chance that we'll never see her in the top 30 again, and a decent chance that, after a failed comeback attempt or two, she'll ride off into the sunset.

First Genie Bouchard, then Andreescu... a good part of one year, and then nothing.
Leylah had better not follow in the footsteps of her fellow canucks...

It must be really disappointing for Canadian fans with those two not living up to the expectations and excitement. I'm not as convinced that Andreescu is done contending for Slams or No. 1, but it has certainly been bleak since 2019. At least Andreescu's "good part of a year" was the bulk of it - IW through US Open. Can't remember about Bouchard, but seems like she had a couple years of steady ascent, culminating in the Wimbledon final in 2014. I don't think Leylah is the same animal, do you?

^ No... of course Leylah is made of different stuff than the other two.
I remember a couple of years ago after Genie and Andreescu played each other at the Toronto tournament, Genie posted a photo of the two of them at the net, and captioned it something like "Our asses look really good".

I watched Genie as a Junior, and no-one was more surprised than me when she had that good year at the pro level in 2014. I never saw anything special about her game, and I knew that she could not endure at her 2014 level in the pros - because the other players would figure her out quickly. And they did. Seeing this, Genie decided to become a full-time 'pinup girl'...

I didn't really see Andreescu as a Junior. I was initially happy when she won Indian Wells in 2019. But by the time she won Toronto, she had already become too arrogant and obnoxious for my liking. Then the U.S. Open, with her and her parents using her little dog as a fashion accessory...
She, like Genie, had got caught up in the attention, and it looked to me like 'being famous' was more important to her than dedicating herself to tennis was. Add in her perpetually injured state, and this is what you have - a player who had a good 6 months 3 years ago, and who has pretty much dropped off the radar since then. Even that good 6 months was not a consecutive 6 months, as she didn't play for several months between Indian Wells and Toronto due to injury, of course.

Less than a month after her U.S. Open win, I told Louis Borfiga (the person most responsible for the pro level Canadian 'tennis boom' in recent years) that I see nothing special in Andreescu's game, and that Leylah will be ranked ahead of her in 3 years. I remember that conversation vividly. He said Andreescu would be "#1 or #2" in 3 years, and that Leylah would be "around #50" in 3 years. Here we are exactly 2 1/2 years after that conversation, and Leylah is just outside the top 20, while Andreescu will be out of the top 100 after Miami.
And Borfiga has retired and gone home to France rather than admit that I was right and he was wrong! (Of course, I don't think that's why he retired - he likely doesn't even remember that conversation - though I kind of hope he does.)

Leylah has a focus, determination, motivation, and drive that Andreescu and Genie don't have. I don't think Genie ever had it, while Andreescu may have had it and lost it when 'being famous' became more important to her than tennis.
Leylah also absolutely loves the act of hitting a tennis ball.
I can't say whether Leylah will disappear like the other two or not - but if she does, it won't be due to a lack of motivation or effort, or because she got caught up in the 'fame' of it all.
(But I do think that the main reason she bombed out of the Aussie Open in the first round was likely due to her doing too many endorsements leading up to that tournament, and, as a result, had lost a degree of focus on tennis - which she seems to have since regained.)

Shelby Rodgers got leaner and meaner during the off-season... Will see if it turns into results.

^ Yes - Shelby has become noticeably slimmer and more fit. As you say - we'll see if it translates into a climb up the rankings ladder.

[ti-amie]

[Suliso]

Congrats to Iga.

[ti-amie]

[ponchi101]

Personally, I am getting a bit tired of all the talk about the "unworthy" #1's.
They did not go to the supermarket and bought the points. They play for this. And you can't make the Slams worth 4,000 points more than anything else.