WTA Finals Riyadh 11/1 - 11/8 2025

[ptmcmahon]

Yeah, for fun I'm just seeing if there is maybe one extreme situation on either end where it doesnt

[ptmcmahon]

The most extreme scenarios were

- Gauff winning one set 7-6, losing another 6-7, then winning the other set - Gauff did need to win by 5 or 6 games
- Gauff wins one set 6-0, loses another 0-6, then wins other set - Gauff did need to win by 5 or 6 games.

So yes, it does work out to Gauff need +5 games if it goes to three regardless of exact score

I also like that we are more on the ball figuring this out than most sites. Lots of articles that even know Pegula is through are saying Gauff has to win in 2.

[jazzyg]

And it is not an inconceivable scenario

Pegula won 6 more games than Gauff in her 3-set win.

[ponchi101]

And Gauff is doing ger part to keep it interesting...

[ptmcmahon]

Gauff can only afford to lose about 2 more games now. (or 3 if this set is 7-6 or 7-5)

[ptmcmahon]

Well, that was anti-climcatic.

Sabalenka - Anisimova
Rybakina-Pegula

Also, laughed today seeing some articles saying this was the "Group of Death?" Do we really need that for a 2 group tournament

[ponchi101]

Yes, that was ridiculous. Group of death.
And yes, no complicated calculations needed.
I like Anisimova's chances, still. And I like Pegula's. If she can keep in the ball in play, Elena can always start hitting out.

[mick1303]

In the end it did not matter. So counting games did not happen this year. I could've been in 2014. Sharapova, Kvitova and Radwanska all went 1-2 in RR (all of them lost to Wozniacki).

[mick1303]

Pegula has favorable H2H against Rybakina (3-1). It is hard to hit her off the court - she plays reliable and consistently deep, while keeping above average pace (poor man's Clijsters so to speak).

[mick1303]

Even though Sabalenka made out of Round Robin 3 times out of the 4 previous participations, it was the first time she went undefeated in RR.

[mick1303]

And this year again we will have a first-time winner of this Championship. Post-Serena nobody managed to do it twice.

[ptmcmahon]

In the end it did not matter. So counting games did not happen this year. I could've been in 2014. Sharapova, Kvitova and Radwanska all went 1-2 in RR (all of them lost to Wozniacki).

That year it was decided by sets. Radwanska was 3-4, Sharapova, 3-5, Kivtova 2-4.

My AI search couldn't find any examples of it happening for WTA, just the one ATP instance.

[ponchi101]

So the year ends with first time winners at 4 of the big 5 tournaments. And if it is Amanda or Jessie, first time winner of a big tournament, joining Keys.
I am obviously rooting for Elena, but Jessie or Amanda will be good. And Aryna is fine, so a good ending.

[JTContinental]

Yes, that was ridiculous. Group of death.
And yes, no complicated calculations needed.
I like Anisimova's chances, still. And I like Pegula's. If she can keep in the ball in play, Elena can always start hitting out.

It was a stacked group, though--all the most solid players of the year were in that group, and the other one only had Iga, who seems checked out.

[JTContinental]

So the year ends with first time winners at 4 of the big 5 tournaments. And if it is Amanda or Jessie, first time winner of a big tournament, joining Keys.
I am obviously rooting for Elena, but Jessie or Amanda will be good. And Aryna is fine, so a good ending.

If Anisimova wins, she will take the 3 spot from Coco and become US #1. She should be a no-brainer for most improved player in 2025.