Covid-19 Updates & Info

[dryrunguy]

Here's the latest Situation Report from Johns Hopkins. A few observations: 1) It's precisely stunts like what Moderna is trying to pull now that explain broad-based mistrust of the pharmaceutical industry; 2) be sure to check out the sections on measles and mismanaged plastic waste.

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 250.7 million cumulative cases and 5.06 million deaths worldwide as of November 10. Global weekly incidence increased for the third consecutive week, while global weekly mortality fell slightly over the previous week. Weekly incidence increased by 2.68% compared to the previous week, and mortality decreased by 3.68%. The global cumulative incidence surpassed 250 million cases early this week, with several countries in Europe experiencing record numbers of new cases.

Global Vaccination
The WHO reported 7.08 billion cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines administered globally as of November 8. A total of 3.9 billion individuals have received at least 1 dose, and 3.0 billion are fully vaccinated. Analysis from Our World in Data indicates that the overall trend in global daily vaccinations has decreased over the past week, down to 27.83 million doses per day on November 10 from a recent high of 30.83 million doses per day on November 4.*

Our World in Data estimates that there are 4.04 billion vaccinated individuals worldwide (1+ dose; 51.34% of the global population) and 3.16 billion who are fully vaccinated (40.13% of the global population). Europe, South America, North America, and Oceania all have fully vaccinated at least 50% of their populations, while Asia sits at 44.52% and Africa lags far behind at 6.34%.
*The average daily doses administered may exhibit a sharp decrease for the most recent data, particularly over the weekend, which indicates effects of reporting delays. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent data.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC reports 46.6 million cumulative COVID-19 cases and 755,201 deaths, passing 750,000 cumulative deaths on November 4. The current daily incidence average is approximately 74,584 new cases per day and appears to be increasing. The decline in daily mortality appears to have passed an inflection point and appears to be holding relatively steady. The US is currently averaging 1,078 deaths per day.*
*Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

US Vaccination
The US has administered 434.5 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. The daily vaccination trend reached a recent peak at 1.2 million doses on October 29 but has declined slightly to 1.17 million doses as of November 5.* Since CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky endorsed the recommendation by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to authorize use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years, an estimated 1 million elementary-age kids have received their first dose, according to a White House official.

There are 224.7 million individuals who have received at least 1 vaccine dose, equivalent to 67.7% of the entire US population. Among adults, 80.9% have received at least 1 dose, as well as 15.1 million children under the age of 18. A total of 194 million individuals are fully vaccinated, which corresponds to 58.5% of the total population. Approximately 70.3% of adults are fully vaccinated, as well as 12.8 million children under the age of 18. Since August 13, 26.1 million fully vaccinated individuals have received an additional or booster dose, including 32.4% of fully vaccinated adults aged 65 years or older.
*Due to delays in reporting, estimates for the average daily doses administered are less accurate for the most recent 5 days. The most current average provided here corresponds to 5 days ago.

PFIZER-BIONTECH BOOSTER Pfizer and BioNTech on November 9 submitted a request to the US FDA to authorize their SARS-CoV-2 vaccine as a booster dose for all adults aged 18 years and older. If the FDA grants an amendment to the existing emergency use authorization (EUA)—which it is expected to do, possibly ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday—all 181.5 million fully vaccinated adults in the US would become eligible for an additional shot. Such a move would represent a turnaround from 2 months ago, when an FDA expert panel overwhelmingly recommended against the companies’ request for booster doses for all adults. Notably, that committee is not scheduled to meet in November, meaning the FDA could grant the request without seeking external advice. Pfizer-BioNTech made the request based on unpublished data from a randomized, controlled clinical trial of more than 10,000 people aged 16 and older who previously received a primary 2-dose series of the vaccine. Among those who received a booster dose, relative vaccine efficacy reached 95.6% when compared to those who did not receive a booster. Currently, a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is authorized for individuals aged 65 years and older, individuals ages 18 to 64 years who are at high risk of severe COVID-19 or who have frequent institutional or occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, as well as eligible people who completed primary vaccination with a different SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.

Health Canada on November 9 authorized the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as a booster dose for all people aged 18 years and older, at least 6 months following the primary 2-dose regimen. A booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is the same, 30 μg, as those used in the primary series. Mounting evidence shows a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine significantly increases the antibody response among recipients, although it remains unclear how long any resulting immunity lasts.

MODERNA Moderna and the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) are currently in a dispute over which entity should receive patent rights to the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine the company and the agency developed in partnership. The collaboration to develop the vaccine was widely hailed as a shining example of successful interaction between public and private entities for the benefit of the global population. However, Moderna’s patent paperwork noticeably does not include the government scientists involved in the vaccine development process as co-inventors. Moderna’s stance on this dispute is that they “reached the good-faith determination that these individuals did not co-invent” the vaccine. The NIH and consumer advocacy group Public Citizen disagree with this assessment, believing that federal scientists were core to the invention of the vaccine and should be included on the patent. The NIH and Moderna currently are engaged in talks to resolve the dispute, but if left unresolved, the issue could be taken into the court system for resolution.

Ownership of patents vital to vaccine manufacturing has implications beyond the financial aspect; decisions about distribution of the product and information-sharing on patented technology fall under the patent owner’s control. Moderna has repeatedly come under fire for not providing technical information with vaccine manufacturers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), although the company has said it will not enforce patents during the pandemic. Both Moderna and Pfizer—which developed a SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in partnership with BioNTech—have limited licensing opportunities with other vaccine manufacturers in an effort to protect their large investments in the technology. But this tight hold on mRNA vaccine technology inhibits other countries with vaccine manufacturing capabilities from negotiating access to the information needed to make the products. Following the successful procurement of ample vaccines for the US population, the US government is now making concerted efforts to send more vaccine doses to the rest of the world. However, those efforts are being significantly stymied by strict contractual language with Moderna that prevents the US from sending doses abroad or sharing manufacturing information. Increased scrutiny on Moderna’s tight grip on vaccine supply and technology have led to promises from the company to play a more significant role in global vaccine distribution, but many have stated these pledges are too little, too late and do not guarantee enough action. Some progress in changing contractual language was made in June, but additional efforts still need to be made to improve worldwide availability of vaccine doses and technology.

AT-HOME TEST RECALL The FDA has issued a recall for additional batches of Australia-based company Ellume’s at-home COVID-19 test kits for potentially false-positive results. This recall is for the same issue that was previously reported in early October and classified as a Class I recall, the most serious recall designation that may result in “serious adverse health consequences or death.” Product batches with a manufacture date between February 24 and August 11, 2021, and distribution dates between April 13 and August 26, 2021, are included in the recall, which includes more than 2.2 million of the 3.5 million tests shipped to the US; Ellume’s previous estimate of faulty tests was 427,000. Those who attempt to use the affected tests will be notified through the app of the recall status, and replacement tests can be requested online. Thus far, the FDA has received reports of 35 false positives from the tests. The Biden administration made a $231.8 million deal with Ellume in February to boost availability of the at-home testing kits in the US, which also helped fund the company’s first manufacturing plant in the US in Frederick, Maryland, with a 500,000 test production capacity per day. The White House made an additional $1 billion allocation for the purchase of the 8 types of at-home testing kits available in the US shortly after the first Ellume recall was publicized.

VACCINE ACCESS The global rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines continues to face various challenges, including hoarding and inequities in vaccine distribution, unfulfilled pledges, vaccine production backlogs, export restrictions, supply chain disruptions, communication breakdowns, logistical hurdles, and misinformation and hesitancy. Experts warn that if wealthy nations continue to put their own interests ahead of the rest of the world and continue to stockpile vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will remain two-pronged, with some nations working toward recovery while others continue to be threatened by ongoing outbreaks. Increasingly, public health officials and policymakers are looking toward the future, highlighting lessons learned from this pandemic and drafting an international treaty on pandemic preparedness and response.

The fact remains that the world needs to take steps to fix inequities in vaccine access now in order to reach a goal of vaccinating 70% of the world’s population by September 2022. On November 10, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted a virtual COVID-19 ministerial, during which he said the US will step up efforts to boost vaccine production, increase vaccine donations, and fulfill current pledges. He announced the US helped broker a deal between Johnson & Johnson (J&J) and COVAX to help deliver more doses of the J&J-Janssen SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to conflict zones, humanitarian settings, and frontline workers such as UN peacekeepers, including a US donation of 1.5 million doses of surplus supply. Secretary Blinken also announced a new public-private partnership, called the Global COVID Corps, to facilitate private sector companies in lending expertise and resources to support vaccination campaigns, including supply chain management and on-site vaccine administration. Earlier this week, the heads of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank Group, WHO, and World Trade Organization (WTO) met with the CEOs of vaccine manufacturing companies, acknowledging the urgency of delivering more vaccine doses to low-income countries and calling on G20 nations to join efforts to meet the end-of-year goal to vaccinate 40% of the population in all countries.

The Center for Health security released a report on October 29, Navigating the World that COVID-19 Made: A Strategy for Revamping the Pandemic Research and Development Preparedness and Response Ecosystem, urgently calling on governments, international institutions, and private sector actors to immediately act to address gaps and explore opportunities at each step along the vaccine value chain.

MEASLES In a report published in an early edition of the US CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), researchers from the CDC and WHO voiced concern over diminished progress toward measles elimination, as more than 22 million infants missed their first dose of measles vaccine in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Also in 2020, only 70% of children received their second dose. Additionally, 24 vaccination campaigns in 23 countries were planned in 2020 but were postponed due to the pandemic, leaving more than 93 million people at risk for the disease. Notably, reported measles cases decreased more than 80% in 2020 compared to the previous year, but surveillance activities significantly dropped, with the lowest number of specimens sent in for testing in more than a decade. Missed vaccination doses and gaps in disease surveillance programs highlight the largest increase in unvaccinated children in decades and put many more children at risk of contracting the disease. Major measles outbreaks occurred in 26 countries in 2020, accounting for 84% of all reported cases last year. Despite disruptions to immunization services worldwide, 81 countries (42%) maintained their measles elimination status through the end of 2020, but no new countries were verified as having achieved measles elimination.

PLASTIC WASTE Global plastic waste was a problem prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and an increase in demand for single-use plastics—especially those used in medical settings—has intensified the problem over the past 2 years, according to a research article published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Worldwide, 193 countries have generated about 8 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste (MMPW). Of that waste, nearly 26,000 tons has entered the oceans, where it threatens to have a “long-lasting impact” by disturbing marine life and polluting coasts. The researchers, from China and the US, urged all nations, particularly low- and middle-income countries, to better manage medical and other plastic waste as the pandemic continues. A separate crowd-sourced project is tracking instances of wildlife being killed or disrupted by pandemic-related waste, with researchers noting cases of animal entanglement, entrapment, and ingestion of COVID-19 trash.

https://covid19.who.int/

[JazzNU]

[ti-amie]

The news about measles is distressing.

I wish I could say I'm surprised about what Moderna is doing.

[JazzNU]

Here's the latest Situation Report from Johns Hopkins. A few observations: 1) It's precisely stunts like what Moderna is trying to pull now that explain broad-based mistrust of the pharmaceutical industry; 2) be sure to check out the sections on measles and mismanaged plastic waste.

Unpopular opinion I'm sure. But I wouldn't call what Moderna is doing a stunt. They are the MRNA company, the science and tech they have worked to perfect is basically the savior of this pandemic. But if they don't see a healthy return on the development they've invested in for the last decade to get to this point, I have no idea what their future is.

People hate pharma, I get it. But pharmaceutical development isn't a non-profit business because it costs a freaking mint and acting as if it should be then paid for at cost is just a Utopian ideal. Happy mediums should be explored even in a pandemic so developers don't shy away from future investment or we may not land on solutions as quickly as we did this time. Moderna is actual chump change compared to true Big Pharma. Acting like Moderna is in a similar financial position to be more permissive of patent sharing like a Pfizer, J&J, or Merck is just unfair. This is their first and only commercial product.

[ponchi101]

People hate Big Everything. Big Oil is hated because we pollute the world and create economic distortions and world problems. People hate Big Agra because they create economic distortions and wipe out the small farmers. They hate Big Data because they create economic distortions and invade our privacy. They hate Big Insurance, Big Military and here, Big Pharma, because of all the profits.
Yet, we power, feed, heal, cover and protect the world, on many occasions. These companies are not there to be charities. They are not a group of nuns running a soup kitchen. They are for profit entities.
The sole thing I would like to see would be for them to set up shop again in countries lime mine, so they can produce their miracle drugs in country, and help the local economy and progress.
And yes, Moderna has developed something unique. They have all the right to profit from that.

[dryrunguy]

I just re-read the section on Moderna to make sure I understood it correctly. I'm still not sure I do.

But I can tell you this... In my line of work (which does not get into patents), all contract deliverables are the property of the federal government. This was a contract. The federal government should own all contract deliverables.

That said, there's clearly something in the contract language that either muddies the patent issue or gives Moderna ownership of the patent. I would have to see the actual contract language, but that would require a FOIA request, which would probably take months.

So I'll step back from calling it a stunt.

If nothing else, it is, at least, really bad optics for Moderna--during a global pandemic when so many people are still dying or face the possibility of long-term disability due to Long COVID. I highly doubt that Moderna is hurting financially. There's a stark difference between safeguarding corporate profitability and downright greed. To me, this feels like the latter.

One other thing... We routinely develop scientific papers, produced under CONTRACT, not a GRANT, that are published in peer-reviewed journals. IT WOULD NEVER EVEN OCCUR TO US to exclude a federal or state client and their colleagues from authorship in journal publication. Even if their sole contribution to a journal article was to change "happy" to "glad" in a journal manuscript.

You. Just. Don't. Do. THAT.

But since most of the work we do is funded by government contracts, the government is not in any way required to acknowledge our contribution to the development of contract deliverables. Sometimes they do, as a courtesy. But not always. And we know that going in.

I just find the whole thing.... really icky.

[Suliso]

Nobody really has a convincing (to me) theory why this is the case.

[Deuce]

Nobody really has a convincing (to me) theory why this is the case.

I don't know what any of the proposed theories are... but the first thing I thought of is that German language media is spreading more BS than the media outlets of other languages.
I have no idea if this is the case or not - and if it is the case, I have no idea why it's happening - but it would possibly explain it.

[MJ2004]

Here is the complete article that graph came from in the FT:

‘Nein Danke’: the resistance to Covid-19 vaccines in German-speaking Europe
Hesitancy in Austria, Germany and Switzerland intersects with anti-establishment and populist politics

As Switzerland kicked off a mass Covid-19 vaccination drive, riot police formed lines around Zurich’s main train station. Their mission: to protect a new “vaccination village” in the station hall from angry protesters.

“We are a civil rights movement,” said Nicolas A Rimoldi, a 26-year-old protester from the city of Lucerne who was one of several people arrested during the Monday protests but later released without charge. “The huge pressure that is being put on people, against morality, against the constitution, is just not right.”

Some protesters carried Trycheln, the giant cowbells that are a symbol of rural Switzerland, where vaccine hesitancy is high.

Despite being one of the wealthiest countries in the world, Switzerland has the lowest Covid-19 vaccination rate in western Europe. More than one-third of the Swiss population — 33.6 per cent — have not had a first dose of a Covid vaccine.

Switzerland is part of a cluster of wealthy — and predominantly German-speaking — European nations at the heart of Europe with surprisingly poor vaccination rates. In neighbouring Austria, 33.1 per cent have yet to take a single shot of the vaccine, and in Germany it is 30.4 per cent. Case numbers are surging in all three countries.

The high levels of hesitancy, evident among adults of all age groups and political persuasions, have increased scrutiny of the factors driving vaccine scepticism in German-speaking countries.

In Germany, resistance to the vaccine is marked in the affluent southern states of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg as well as in eastern regions such as Saxony. Markus Söder, the Bavarian prime minister, said the three regions had a large proportion of Querdenker (“lateral thinkers”) — members of a protest movement that form the loudest voice against the government’s pandemic curbs.

“We have two viruses in the country,” Söder told a German talk-show. “We have coronavirus and we have this poison [of vaccine scepticism], which is being spread on a massive scale by the Querdenker and by parties like the [far-right] Alternative for Germany [AfD]”.

In Switzerland, vaccine uptake in rural, German-speaking eastern cantons is often far lower than in the country’s French-speaking west and Italian-speaking south. In Appenzell Innerrhoden, 45 per cent of the population is still completely unvaccinated. But the pattern is not clear-cut. The mountainous, German-speaking canton of Graubünden has administered more first doses than urban, French-speaking Geneva.

Suzanne Suggs, professor of communication at the University of Lugano’s public health institute, suggests that authorities in German-speaking countries have tended to be far more dispassionate in their health messaging. “It has been functional rather than emotional,” she said. The lack of emotionally resonant pro-vaccine messaging “has meant conspiracy theories have filled that void — they are often easier for [uninformed] people to believe”, Suggs added.

Daily cases in Austria and Germany hit their highest levels of the entire pandemic on Tuesday. The province of Upper Austria — a centre of vaccine scepticism, with a population of 1.5m — has recorded more new coronavirus cases this week than the whole of the Iberian peninsula.

In Germany, 14m people who are eligible to receive the jab have so far decided not to. In the Berlin suburb of Hohenschönhausen, locals queueing for injections at a pop-up “vaccination bus” gave a range of reasons for having waited.

“I am generally a champion of vaccination, but I’m just not sure that this one is safe,” said Jutta, who declined to give her surname. She said she was still opposed to the Covid vaccine, “but I have no choice any more. They’re saying I won’t be able to go to work unless I’ve received the jab.”

Polling by Erfurt University gives some indication why many Germans don’t want jabs: 80 per cent of unvaccinated respondents said they needed to weigh up the risks and benefits first, and 41 per cent simply considered vaccination “unnecessary”.

Anti-vaccine sentiment intersects strongly with anti-establishment and populist politics. A Forsa poll conducted on behalf of the German health ministry found that half of unvaccinated respondents had voted for the rightwing populist AfD in the recent federal election.

In Austria, the rightwing populist Freedom party has become vociferous in its opposition to vaccination measures. Last month party boss Herbert Kickl spoke about “terrifying” links between vaccines and tumours.

Switzerland is gearing up for a November 28 referendum that will codify the federal government’s emergency pandemic powers. The populist Swiss People’s party — the country’s largest — is openly campaigning against the government. According to an October poll by Sotomo, 51 per cent of its supporters are unvaccinated.

While it has become convenient for the German-speaking political mainstream to deride vaccine-sceptics as Schwurbler — which loosely translates in this context as “burbling yokels” — the reality is more complex.

When MFG, a newly established vaccine-sceptic party, won seats in an Austrian regional election in September, 30 per cent of its voters were previous supporters of the far-right. But another 30 per cent were former moderate conservative voters, while 16 per cent were former socialists and 12 per cent ex-Greens.

Many young people in the three countries are also opposed to Covid-19 vaccination — and government measures to encourage it. In Austria, around 37 per cent of adults under the age of 35 are unvaccinated.

The average age of supporters of the Mass-Voll! (“Enough is Enough”) protest group that organised Monday’s demonstration in Zurich is just 20. It already has more followers on Instagram than the youth movement of Switzerland’s Green party or its Social Democrats.

“This is about the future of a younger generation,” said Rimoldi.

[mmmm8]

I went out to eat for the first time since the pandemic started. The restaurant we went to, on it's website, said that you must be vaccinated to enter. Everyone came in wearing masks. Once people were eating and drinking though no one was. When people left they, including me, put their masks back on.

I guess this is normal?

I've found it's hit or miss in Manhattan although most places are diligently checking vaccination proof, asking for a matching ID. Most places, staff are wearing masks on the floor but not in the kitchen...

[ponchi101]

“I am generally a champion of vaccination, but I’m just not sure that this one is safe,” said Jutta, who declined to give her surname. She said she was still opposed to the Covid vaccine,

Over 1 billion people have been vaccinated. Not one single death from the vaccine, directly.
How much safer can this crap be?

This has got to be the most tested vaccine in history.

[mmmm8]

The news about measles is distressing.

I wish I could say I'm surprised about what Moderna is doing.

I just listened to a podcast about the vaccine rollout and why all these patent/contracting issues are going to pop up and it's essentially because everything was moved through so quickly, no one really focused on figuring these things out. That was a good thing in the moment, since it sped up vaccine creation and production, but, in the balance, it'll probably mean taxpayers subsidized Pfizer/Moderna/J&J R&D without getting any kind of percent of potential profits.

[ti-amie]

[ponchi101]

Extremely brave from Brix to say all this. NOW.
I know, I know, I know. I was not there and I was not in her shoes. But I wish that if I ever get into such a position, I will have the cojones to get BBC on the line and spill everything out.

[JazzNU]

Extremely brave from Brix to say all this. NOW.
I know, I know, I know. I was not there and I was not in her shoes. But I wish that if I ever get into such a position, I will have the cojones to get BBC on the line and spill everything out.

But you very likely wouldn't. In your shoes, maybe, but not in hers. She's a military doctor, that's her training and that's her chain of command. Rarely do they break ranks in the fashion many expected of her. She's also a woman and was a very convenient public punching bag who came under much more fire for similar acquiescence than her male colleagues. For instance, the same could be said of Azar and Redfield, but rarely is.